Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Tuesday afternoon
Alright...it's time to make my final call on snow totals, timing, and school scheduling disruptions (though I may tweak the numbers a bit later this afternoon and/or tonight as new model guidance comes in). Here goes:
Light snow begins to fall by 8 or 9am Wednesday, mixing with freezing drizzle and showers by the early afternoon. I don’t see enough warm air to give us “plain rain” for any extended amount of time. The overwhelming majority of the precipitation we receive with this storm will be frozen.
Precipitation changes back to snow by late afternoon (4 or 5pm) and continues, heavy at times, until tapering early Thursday morning (by 5 or 6am at the latest).
Morning/afternoon accumulation will be an inch or so. The rain will result in a treacherous glaze on sidewalks and secondary roads; slush on major thoroughfares.
The “back end” (Wednesday late afternoon and evening) accumulation is the real wild card here. Given the moisture in this storm, as well as its likely track and duration, expect accumulations of 8-10 inches in Reading/Berks, Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley. Roads will become treacherous very quickly during this heavy snow, so it’s an especially good idea to stay home Wednesday evening and night.
Probability of cancellation Wednesday, 60% (administrators may foresee a travel nightmare for the afternoon and seek to avoid that by putting the ixnay on the school day. oolschay ayday. whatever.)
Probability of early dismissal Wednesday, 80% (more likely is that the light snow will arrive too late to influence administrators; when it arrives and travel conditions deteriorate, they will call early dismissals for noon or 1pm.)
Probability of (at least) a delay Thursday, 90% (most of us will be waking up with well over half a foot of snow on Thursday morning; it will take a while to dig out and clean up.)
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 75% (possible lingering snow showers early Thursday morning, strong winds, and falling temperatures--as well as persistently treacherous road conditions and transportation problems--may prompt administrators to bag the day altogether.)
