Monsoon's Weather Update: two potentially wintry systems this week...
Sunday 2/20 will start off sunny with an afternoon high in the upper 30s, but clouds will build in ahead of a system that could bring us a return to winter weather. (Those of you who were dangling your bare arms blithely out your open car windows Friday, basking in the unseasonable 70-plus-degree warmth and insisting the winter was over...what say you now, Fussy Britches? I'm guessing you may have been ruing those cavalier words as you fought your way through 30+ mph winds--with gusts into the 50s--yesterday morning and afternoon...)
Anywho, expect light rain to begin by 8 or 9pm Sunday and quickly change over to snow, which will continue off and on overnight and accumulate a coating to an inch at most, primarily on cars and grassy areas. Changing back over to rain by the morning rush (7 or 8am) as surface temperatures rise above freezing. Some icy and slippery conditions are possible overnight and into the morning rush, as I've indicated in the percentages below, but by 9 or 10am Monday the roads will be slushy or just wet.
Probability of delay Monday, 25%
Probability of cancellation Monday, 10%
So. On Monday 2/21, rain tapers to showers and afternoon temperatures will rise to a noticeably milder 45 degrees. Then a second system comes in, starting as light rain in the evening, but quickly changing to snow by around 10pm as temperatures fall precipitously. There is not a whole lot of moisture associated with this system, so expect just a coating to a half-inch of accumulation, again mainly on cars and grassy surfaces. The temperature will stay in the mid-20s (with wind chills in the low teens) through the morning rush, though, so the potential for hazardous driving through this period is a bit elevated.
Probability of delay Tuesday, 35%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday, 15%
Tuesday 2/22 will be breezy and colder, with highs only reaching into the upper 20s and wind chills spending most of the day in the teens.
Wednesday 2/23 and Thursday 2/24 look to be partly cloudy and steadily warmer; Wednesday's high will be in the mid 30s, while Thursday's will be in the mid 40s.
Friday 2/25 looks rainy. Just rain for now as temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s for much of the day.
Next weekend looks mostly cloudy and a bit windy with highs in the low 40s. A large system packed with a lot of moisture looms for the Sunday 2/27 through Tuesday 3/1 period, but as of now, precipitation type and track are unclear. My best guess is that this is a "miss," but stay tuned. Early March is typically full of wild vicissitudes (particularly in a La Nina winter) and unplesant wintry surprises...