Turkeygeddon® 2013
The moniker may not be perfect, but I'm determined to make it stick.
So here's my final (pre-storm) call:
Rain begins early Tuesday afternoon. There's been some talk of mixing at the beginning of the event, but I think a variety of factors will conspire to give us all rain on the front end. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid thirties, so a slick spot or two cannot be ruled out.
Rain will become steady, then heavy, then soaking. Heaviest rain falls Tuesday 7pm through Wednesday 10am.
Temperatures will actually rise into the lower 40s overnight, so I think the concerns about "back-end" snow (precipitation that falls as snow when the system moves out and the temperature drops) are overblown. Rain will taper throughout the afternoon and early evening. We could see a coating of snow, but this system won't have enough juice left to give us measurable accumulation.
Wind will pick up throughout the day Tuesday and will get strongest behind the storm: 20-30mph with gusts over 40.
My most significant concerns with this storm are flooding--most areas will get 2 to 3 inches of rainfall--and wind damage.
Travel hazards: ponding water on the roadways during the height of the storm, low visibility, some fog, and a rapid freeze-up Wednesday night, when temperatures will plunge through the 20s.
Thanksgiving Day will be mostly sunny, windy, and cold with a high of 34. The low overnight (Thursday into Friday) will be 18. So all you bargain hunters, bundle up!!!
Stay tuned for updates when and if there are changes as the storm moves through...