Overnight icing potential, milder temperatures, and looking ahead...
We are in for some rain tomorrow, and it will get warmer. But there is the potential for freezing rain at the beginning. Here's what I see:
Rain begins overnight around 2 or 3am. Temperatures will hover around freezing during the morning commute, raising the possibility of compromised travel. I don't see it, though; the roads should be fine.
Chance of delay Monday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 10%
Temperatures will get up to the upper 40s on Monday. Rain tapers by 3-4pm.
Clouds mixed with sunshine on Tuesday; windy conditions. High 44, low 26.
The Hoff with a hawk. Why is he holding a hawk? Why is he wearing a tantalizingly unbuttoned, tasseled leather jacket? Why does a faint but dashing beard adorn his no-nonsense visage? Why the piercing, menacing glare? It is because it is.Mostly cloudy and breezy on Wednesday. High 43, low 28. Keeping an eye on the possibility for some snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but right now it doesn't look like much.
Thursday will be partly cloudy with light winds. High 44, low 30.
Plenty of sunshine on Friday. High 41, low 26.
The weekend looks overcast and windy with some flurries and snow showers around. (I don't see any accumulation or travel disruptions here.) Highs in the mid 30s; lows in the mid 20s.
Sunshine and milder conditions to begin next week - highs in the low to mid 40s, lows around 30. Warmer and rainy (just rain) by Thursday 2/21 and Friday 2/22. Warming trend thereafter.
So...is that it for winter, then? I think we'll have more to deal with.
Stay tuned for udpates...
Downgrade for tonight; upgrade for Friday?
Hasselhoff reads Hasselhoff.
Last night's clipper looked robust on the radar as it came to east-southeast into Pennsylvania. An impressive area of moisture that promised to give us a nice couple of inches.
And then it got a shredded up in the mountains. (Essentially, the mountains act as a buffer, slowing down some clipper systems and pilfering their moisture.) On the radar, this looks like the ethereal disappearance of exhaled breath on a very cold day. It is very sad, particularly when one has expressed such confidence in a system's performance.
**sighhhh**
The percentages offered yesterday were unreasonably inflated. I have fired my statistician, my esthetician, and and my tactician. This type of half-assery is unacceptable around here.
Tonight's clipper is even more moisture-starved that last night's. It will leave a coating to a half-inch at most across the area; some places may see nothing but a few flurries.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Wednesday will be seasonably cold (highs in the upper 30s) and quite windy, so expect wind chills in the 20s.
Thursday will be seasonably cold and less windy. Both Wednesday and Thursday will be fairly overcast.
Thursday night into Friday is looking interesting. Light snow develops overnight Thursday into Friday, mixing with ice and creating a travel mess for the morning commute. Precipitation changes over to plain rain by the afternoon. Timing and amounts are subject to change due to various factors, and there is a lot of data (and a lot of model runs) to evaluate between now and then. But I'm going to make a preliminary (subject to change) call for school disruptions.
Chance of delay Friday: 70%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 40%
Milder next week. Then maybe some President's Day action? Winter's not over yet...
Stay tuned for updates!
It's just a little clipper...
…but it could be a travel nuisance on Saturday evening.
Here’s what to expect:
Light to moderate snow develops by 4-5pm on Saturday. The period of steadiest snow will likely be from about 11pm to 2am, but whatever falls will be intermittent. That said, be careful if you’re heading out after dark on Saturday. It doesn’t take much in terms of accumulation or rate to produce a treacherous roadway. The snow tapers to light snow showers, ending by early Sunday afternoon. Total accumulations from this system will be a coating in some places to up to two inches in others. The system is quick-moving and moisture-starved, so don’t expect much.
The good news is that these winds—so strong you find yourself getting pissed off at them when you go outside—will diminish overnight tonight, and will be rather calm throughout the weekend. The temperature overnight will get down to a frigid 14.
Temperatures on Saturday will hold steady in the mid-20s. The high on Sunday will be 34; low will be 18.
Hasselhoff: the only thing that could improve the Puppy Bowl.
Monday and Tuesday look overcast and still cold with highs just above freezing (32F) and lows in the lower 20s. (There’s another little clipper that moves through on Tuesday, but I don’t see anything impressive thus far. Just some light snow showers and flurries at best.)
Wednesday and Thursday will feature more sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday the 8th looks interesting: snow likely from mid-morning to early afternoon, then a bit of ice and freezing rain mixing in. Temperatures holding steady at or just below freezing.
Next weekend will see clearing with highs in the lower 40s and lows around 30.
Next week (beginning with Monday 2/11) looks mild and wet, with rain likely on Tuesday 2/12 and Wednesday 2/13. Highs will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s.
Aside from 2/8, I don’t really see much in the way of winter weather potential. That’s a bit distressing to me as an amateur meteorologist, but I’m hearing a lot of “I’m ready for spring” now that we’ve crossed into February…
Stay tuned for updates!
Overnight snow / sleet / rain event
My day began in the following manner:
The Hasselhoff head in question. Here it is pictured on the driver's side; I have since moved it to the passenger side because every time Mrs. Monsoon parked to my left in the driveway, she would be startled by the Hoff face staring at her, causing her to utter something like, "Gaaa! God damn it, it's Hasselhoff."I was stopped at the light at 5th and Washington Streets on my way to take The Bunk to day care (don't judge) and then go to work. I had just bade auf wiedersehen to my sweet wife, whose drive to work partially parallels mine.
[I pause here to remind you that my rear passenger side window is adorned with a life-size Hasselhoff head.]
A cab then pulled up alongside me to the right, and the driver rolled down his window, smiling broadly.
"That's the Hoff, huh?"
"You know it!"
"Aw, nice dog, there. [in Bunk's direction:] Mwah!"
"Hahaaauh. Thanks!"
And then he was gone. And my day was made.
So what can we expect from this storm tonight?
It's the Yeti crab, nicknamed the Hoff Crab by the crew who found it (on account of its evocation of Hasselhoff's hairy chest). It's found in the extreme southern Atlantic. Seriously. The Hoff Crab.Snow and sleet begin by 8 or 9 tonight, continuing and mixing overnight. The extent to which they mix (and the extent to which rain mixes in) depends on your location. In Berks County and points north and east, we're looking at a mostly snow and sleet event. In the immediate suburbs of Philadelphia and points south, it'll be mainly rain. Location will be important with this one.
During tomorrow morning's rush hour it'll still be sleety, but then it mixes with (then changes to) rain, ending by around noon.
Total accumulations of snow and sleet will be in the 1-3 inches range (and likely on the low end of that). Temperatures will hold fairly steady in the low to mid 30s, so we could see some deterioration in travel conditions for the early morning rush.
Probability of delay for Wednesday: 40%
Probability of cancellation for Wednesday: 15%
Stay tuned for updates as they become necessary this evening!
Will it snow Wednesday?
In a few words: it's not likely.
While we are seeing a pattern that is becoming both wetter and colder, I don't see the storm next week coming together in the right way to give us a snow event.
First, a major honor for stage, screen, and song legend David Hasselhoff. People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive 2012? No, that title was inexplicably bestowed on wooden-acting douchecake Channing Tatum rather than The Hoff. Time Magazine's Person of the Year 2012? Nah. The readers' poll selected Kim Jong-Un for that distinction; the magazine's choice will be announced on December 19th, but is unlikely to honor the Hoff's immeasurable contributions to humanity. Past winners have included George W. Bush (twice!) and his daddy; Newt Gingrich; The Protestor; and even You.
Perhaps more importantly, Britons named the Christmas Consultant star as the person with whom they'd most like to have a Christmas photo taken.
(Apparently this poll was sponsored by Nikon, and Hasselhoff braved sub-freezing temperatures for a photo shoot that married Baywatch with Yuletide cheer--highlights of which I have sprinkled throughout this forecast.)
Here's what I think we can expect in the last two weeks of 2012:
Sunday 12/16: cloudy with a brief shower or two this afternoon; foggy tonight. High 54, low 42.
Monday 12/17: a foggy morning; then rainy, mostly in the afternoon and evening. High 52, low 44.
Tuesday 12/18: mostly cloudy and continued mild for this time of year. A shower or two early, then clearing and becoming quite windy. Temperatures dropping throughout the day. High 56, low 34.
Wednesday 12/19: partly to mostly cloudy; breezy and chilly. High 49, low 34.
Thursday 12/20: overcast with breezy conditions. Rain likely, especially later in the day. High 50, low 42.
Friday 12/21: sunny, super-windy, and colder. High of 42 will actually feel 10-15 degrees colder due to the wind. Low 29. (Note: if the world ends on this date, the above forecast is invalid--as are the ones below. I am 96.5% sure the world will not end on this date, however.)
Saturday 12/22: sunny and breezy. High 41, low 30.
Sunday 12/23: breezy and colder; partly cloudy. High 38, low 29.
Monday 12/24: continued cold; partly sunny. High 39, low 33.
Tuesday 12/25: varibly cloudy. Clouding up more as the day goes on. High 43, low 35.
Wednesday 12/26: overcast with rain showers, ending before temperatures drop below freezing. High 50, low 26.
Thursday 12/27: wintry mix to start, then becoming all rain. (Stay tuned for updates as this event becomes clearer.) High 43, low 31.
Friday 12/28: cloudy, chilly, breezy. High 42, low 30.
Saturday 12/29: cloudy, chilly, breezy. (Stop me if you've heard this before.) High 44, low 33.
Sunday 12/30: cloudy, milder, less breezy. High 49, low 34.
Monday 12/31: cloudy, a bit of rain. High 48, low 32.
Tuesday 1/1/13: cloudy and continued milder. High 50, low 36.
Thereafter: colder, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. Next chance of frozen precipitation comes in January 5th and 6th...
Snow Update: overnight freeze?
A week ago, I arrived at school (for an in-service day) to find the stairwell lined with streamers, balloons, and candid shots of me. As I reached the top of the stairs, a row of my colleagues/friends serenaded me by singing "Happy Birthday" whilst wearing David Hasselhoff masks.
These masks--each one, a life-sized head-shot of The Most Hoff fastened to a long wooden skewer--are works of genius. And I decided that I had to incorporate one into my everyday life. So I jammed one into the backseat driver's side window-crevice of my sweet hoopty. See below.
And so it is with this emblem of Hasselhovian magnificence that I make my way about town. And it is just this Hofftastic countenance that I credit with saving my life.
Over the break, I was driving along Perkiomen Avenue when I pulled up at a stoplight behind a car that held a driver and passenger, both of whom appeared to be texting. In fact, the driver's very last concern in the world seemed to be the operation of her vehicle.
It's relevant here to note that these two young women--as I realized later--had a rather rough look about them. They had the kind of hard look that seems to glare out at the world, just daring someone to mess with them.
But again, I didn't realize this until later.
The light turned green, and the car in front of me did not move. A few beats went by, and I sounded an alert with my horn that was intended to be friendly. You know, "Hey there! Hi. Not sure if you had noticed, but the light has changed! Alrighty..." rather than, "Move your ass!"
Apparently, they took it as the latter.
I had overtaken them at some point soon thereafter, and at the next two-lane opportunity, the rode my back bumper hard, then zoomed up alongside me--bent on revenge or mayhem. I think they intended to holler (not holla) at me, or run me off the road, or ram me. Or shoot me. Hoff knows what.
But just then, a funny thing happened: they began laughing merrily, and waved in the most amiable way.
They had seen The Face of The Hoff, and it had tamed them.
So it snowed most of the day, and if I had a nickel for every time a student asked me if we were going to get out early, I'd have my very own authentic K.I.T.T.
We got about what I thought - an inch or two in Berks. Graterford and Skippack picked up a bit over three inches. Elverson and some places in the Poconos were "sweet spots" with four and a half inches. Roads were a bit treacherous this morning--particularly secondary roads, which quickly became snow-covered. Not sure that a delay would have done us any good, and once we were in school, an early dismissal wouldn't have made much sense either.
Yes, this is David Hasselhoff dressed as Captain Hook, atop K.I.T.T. And yes, that is David Hasselhoff in the poster over his own right shoulder, photobombing himself. And yes, if you look closely, you can see the photographer in the glare on the hood--all of which makes this photo the perfect example of Hasselicious meta-promotion.Temperatures are expected to get well below freezing tonight (into the mid 20s around here), so the slushy wetness on the roads can freeze into black ice. This slipperyness may persist into early tomorrow morning, but by the time most of us are making our way to work, the sun should dry things out. As a result, I'm only predicting a 20% chance of delay on Wednesday 11/28.
Wednesday turns out mostly sunny but breezy and cold, with a high only in the upper 30s.
Becoming milder toward the weekend - Friday will get into the 40s; Saturday and Sunday will see highs into the mid 50s. Rain is possible on Sunday, and as well through much of new week.
Next really good chance of frozen precipitation for us in December 11th-12th, but that's two weeks away, so let's just relax.
Midweek Nor'easter comes into sharper focus
The Nor'easter now appears as though it will affect our area, but we will escape the "worst case scenario" event involving extremely high winds and accumulating snow. Here's what I think...
Winds will start to increase on Wednesday morning, and by Wednesday afternoon they will be at 15-20mph (sustained) with 30mph gusts--nothing approaching what we dealt with in the Frankenstorm, but nothing to trifle with, either.
The Hoff reminds you to be sure and vote on November 6th (Democrats) and November 7th (Republicans)!Rain begins to overspread the area by early Wednesday afternoon, with the heaviest rain falling Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. It tapers by Thursday evening. (We could see a bit of wet snow mix in on Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, but it will not accumulate around here. Only higher elevations in the Poconos will see any accumulation.) Total rainfall amounts will be in the half-inch to inch-and-a-quarter range, so we will not see flooding. However, considering the leaning trees, weak roots, and waterlogged ground, even this relatively moderate rain and wind could cause problems.
Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be 45 and 48, respectively. On Friday, we'll actually see a bit of sunshine (!) and highs getting into the 50s.And Saturday and Sunday look fantastic - highs in the upper 50s/low 60s and plenty of sunshine.
Stay tuned for updates!
Update on Sandy, Der Frankenstorm
Hey there,
A word about the unofficial name of this event, the Frankenstorm: it originated because the storm is a hybrid of a hurricane, a high pressure ridge, and a cold front, creating a hurricane-Nor'easter hybrid--just as Frankenstein's monster was a maudlin patchwork of humanity. And given that this storm is taking place a couple of days before Halloween, it was bound to resonate. And its Germanic tenor is gold.
(Some outlets like CNN and The Weather Channel have banned any reference to this event as the Frankenstorm, believing that the moniker trivializes a serious and potentially deadly situation. To these fuddy-duddys I say: Get a goddamned sense of humor, will ya?)
So not much has changed regarding the forecast, but some of the timing and particulars have come into clearer focus. Specifically:
We will see some rain from this system Sunday afternoon and evening, but the heavy, lashing rain and whipping winds won't arrive until overnight into early Monday morning.
The entire days on Monday and Tuesday will be just unimaginably shitty. All day Monday and all day Tuesday we can expect sustained winds in the 35-45mph range with gusts reaching 60-70mph (especially on Tuesday). Rain and wind will begin to taper on Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday. We could still have a linger shower or three on Wednesday and it'll still be cloudy, but that's it.
The most prominent hazards from this storm will be property damage from flying objects, long-term power outages, storm surges at and near the coasts, and significant flooding.
The governor of New Jersey, the mayor of Philadelphia, and the Berks County Commissioners have declared states of emergency for their areas. Colleges have begun to cancel classes for Monday and Tuesday. I feel confident that our schools will be closed on Monday and Tuesday as well--and maybe beyond, depending on the power outage and downed-tree situations.
Be sure to send me updates at monsoonmartin@gmail.com: storm damage, outages, mewling, and the like. And I'll be sure to send out updates about closures, track, and other particulars as needed (and as possible, depending on the power company).
Stay safe. And also: Hasselhoff.