Will we or won't we?
So this Nor'easter for next week ... is it actually going to happen? Will we have a mid-November 2013 repeat of the Halloween storm of 2011?
Don't strap on your showshoes just yet, there, Amundsen.
Here's what to expect:
Monday 11/11: Breezy and increasingly cloudy during the day with highs in the mid 50s. When the sun goes down at 2:30pm (alright, it just seems that early; it's actually 4:50pm), we'll see more cloud cover and temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. Could be a few snow showers toward morning.
Why, you ask? I turn to Robert Kennedy for the answer: "There are those who look at Hoffs the way they are and ask why? I dream of Hoffs that never were and ask why not?"Tuesday 11/12: Breezy and colder with a morning snow shower or two. Clouds will break a bit toward afternoon, but temperatures will only reach a high of 43. Lows overnight into Wednesday morning will be in the mid 20s. Freaking brr.
Chance of school delay, 15%
Chance of school cancellation, 2.5%
Wednesday 11/13: Partly sunny and cold. High will struggle to reach 40. In fact, I don't even think it's going to get there. Let's call it 39. That's all we get. Back into the mid 20s overnight, too.
Thursday 11/14: Sunshine and milder, with the high reaching a balmy 51. Overnight lows still around freezing (32).
Friday 11/15: Sunny again. Highs in the mid 50s. Really nice fall day, you know? Leaves falling off the trees, crisp air, shit like that. Cornucopia of autumnal beauty.
The weekend: More of this - sunny with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Next week: Chilly (highs in the 40s) and rainy Monday and Tuesday. Then colder with highs reaching only into the low 40s. Overnight lows will dip into mid 20s again. If you haven't turned your heat on yet, I don't even know what to tell you. You're going to freeze your ass off, is what.
Next weekend: We're talking about the 23rd and 24th right here. They seem nice. A bit of cloud cover, highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. Watching the potential for some ice Saturday night. Will keep you posted.
Thereafter: We're talking about the last week of November and into December right here. Nice, you know? What do you want me to say? It's hard to predict so far away. That's, like, three weeks! If someone tells you he or she knows beyond 5 to 7 days what the weather is going to be he or she is bulling your shit. (No, that's not it at all. It's not a separable phrasal verb. He or she is bullshitting you, is the way to say it. Anyway: full of shit.)
Stay tuned for updates!
A blunk of rainsomeness.
My friends,
Since you became wet when you walked outdoors this morning, you already know that it is raining. If not, spoiler alert: it is raining.
See, look.
So how long will this blunk of squally, tempestuous weather last? To answer this question, we must discuss the origin of the moisture.
The storm contains some tropical elements - the remnants of Troical Storm Karen. But while we will see rain that is sometimes heavy, the impacts from this system should be minimal.
We will be besieged by gloomy weather through Saturday as a high pressure system keeps the storm churning just off the coast. Our immediate area (Berks) will be on the northern edge of the affected region. Here's the forecast, then, for Berks:
Thursday 10/10: Rain, heavy at times - the soakingest output of this storm for us. All day, all night. Temperatures hold steady in the mid 50s.
Friday 10/11: Overcast with rain and showers - and drizzle at times. Moist and dismal, though. Dreary and miserable. Temperatures may creep into the low 60s, but generally it will still be cool. Maybe a little breezier, too.
The Hoff reminds you: do not forget your umbrella. Lush, sexy hair does not simply happen by accident; it must be nurtured, coaxed, admired, and yes--protected from the elements.Saturday 10/12: Cloudy, misty, drizzly. Maybe a shower or two. Not a complete washout, but not a stroll-through-the-meadow type of day either. High in the mid 60s.
Sunday 10/13: Still cloudy, chance of a shower or two. Or some drizzle. Clearing a bit later, though. We may even see a few peeks of sunshine. High in the upper 60s.
Monday 10/14: Indigenous Genocide Day will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
More of the same for Tuesday 10/15 through Thursday 10/17.
Next Friday and Saturday look rainy again, I regret to inform you. But:
Sunday 10/20 will be a sunny, crisp, resplendent fall day. High in the low 60s with a stiff breeze. Overnight lows plummeting well down into the 40s (and maybe even the upper 30s!).
The following week will be chillier (highs in the 50s, lows in the 40s).
No snow on the horizon. I see a slow onset for winter this year: below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures over all in December. January, though, could pack a wallop.
Stay tuned!
High pressure dominates the first weeks of fall...
Hey there,
It's your old pal Monsoon here. Just thought I'd give you an update on the weather.
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be partly sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s. (Saturday night into Sunday and Sunday night into Monday will see temperatures dip into the 40s, especially in rural areas.)
Wednesday 10/2 will be unseasonably warm with highs in the low 80s.
Thursday 10/3 will be even more unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s.
Friday 10/4 will see some clouds mixed with sun and highs in the upper 70s.
Next weekend looks variably cloudy and seasonably cooler with highs in the low 70s. There's the chance of a passing shower or two on Sunday.
Inexplicable. I can no longer explain or defend this man, or my bewildering affection for him.Next week (the week beginning Monday 10/7) will see some clouds and fog to start, with some showers possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s at the beginning of the week, but in the lower 60s by the end of the week. Throughout the week, overnight lows will dip well into the 40s.
Snow is likely on Saturday 10/12--
Naw. Just joshin'. We won't see temperatures dipping below freezing until mid-November, the way it looks now.
I'm working on a winter 2013-14 forecast (that's meteorological winter, December 1st through February 28th). Seasonal forecasts are generally a fool's errand, and involve a significant amount of guesswork. But it's what I do, so I will do it.
Unseasonably cool and dry...
...and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
After last week's heat wave, the weather over the past few days has been perfect: low humidity, highs in the low 80s, gentle breezes. The absolute best weather possible for this time of year.
This weekend will be a little hiccup in that trend. Expect increasing cloudiness and humidity throughout the day, with a scattered thunderstorm possible late this afternoon or this evening. Scattered storms are also possible on Sunday, which will be overcast and humid with temperatures generally holding steady in the 70s. When the front arrives late Sunday, some places will see heavy rain, and most everyone is likely to see some rain. (Rainfall totals will range widely from less than a half inch to as much as two inches.)
Best place to keep up with the action is Weather Underground's WunderMap®.
Sir David Hasselhoff snuggles with a wombat at a zoo in Australia. Yes, I have knighted him, because he's the Knight Rider, and yes I can do that. It's done. He's a knight.Then it goes back to being awesome: highs in the low 80s, sunny, low humidity, light breezes for the duration of the week. Lows will be in the lower 60s and may even reach the upper 50s Monday night into Tuesday. (There's a small chance of storms on Thursday, but that seems sketchy to me. Stay tuned for updates.)
Next weekend (the first weekend in August) looks iffy again, with showers and storms possible, particularly on Saturday.
But then the following week (August 5th to the 9th) is going to be great again: mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s, lows in the upper 50s, breezy. (We may have to deal with showers toward the end of the week, but let's not worry about that just now.)
And then...
AND THEN...
AND THEN...?
more of the same. (Tricked you there, didn't I? You thought I was going to say "back to the heat and humidity and the sweating and the sopping." But no.)
In fact, I don't see temperatures getting into the 90s again until the very end of August!
So enjoy, my excellent readers. You deserve it.
Showers this week; continued seasonable warmth
Right to the weather:
A few clouds overnight with a low of 42.
Monday looks partly cloudy, then mostly cloudy at night. High 74, low 48.
Tuesday will be cloudy and breezy with a shower or two possible (but predominantly dry). High 73, low 57.
In honor of Cinco de Mayo...Wednesday will cloudy and a bit chillier with showers a bit likelier, but not a washout by any means. High 66, low 54.
On Thursday we'll see some clearing, but a lingering shower or two. Milder with a high of 72 and a low of 53.
Friday will be the nicest (and warmest) day of the week: periods of clouds and sun; high 81, low 58.
Next weekend will be a departure from the last two, which were respendent with clear, blue skies. We'll see some showers, particularly on Saturday--but again, neither day will be a washout. Cloudy and breezy (and quite windy on Sunday). Highs in the lower 70s; lows in the mid 50s.
Next week looks clear and cooler, with highs on Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 60s. Rainy and warmer by the second half of the week.
March goes out like a ... lion.
Umida solstitia atque hiemes orate serenas, agricolae.
That's Latin, and it translates roughly to "Farmers, may your summers be wet and your winters clear."
It was written by Virgil, a Roman epic poet in the first century BCE best-known for his Aeneid.
It's also the name of the upcoming winter storm--the one that's already dumping an early-spring accumulation on the midwest--according to the Weather Channel. (I just can't pass up an opportunity to ridicule TWC.)
There is a lot working against this storm--namely, that it will have to overcome the late-March sun angle and the buildup of milder surface temperatures. And the bulk of the event will occur during the day Monday, so if it does snow, it may have a hard time accumulating.
Working in our favor (for accumulating snow) is the fact that temperatures have been well below normal for the past couple of weeks, and the projected high for Monday is 35.
Some forecast models have us (in Reading and the Lehigh Valley) getting 4 to 8 inches of accumulating snow.
Alright, enough stalling. I've got to make a call. Here it is:
We may see some flurries on Sunday night, but snow won't begin in earnest until 3 or 4am Monday. Snow intensifies toward late morning, mixing with sleet and rain. (I do think that the bulk of this event will be snow; in that way, it will be reminiscent of last Monday's action.) Snow tapers by 8pm Monday.
In Philadelphia, its immediate suburbs, and south Jersey, we'll see a more rain and mixing, so I'm just going to call it a slushy coating to an inch for them.
Back to us: Berks and the Lehigh Valley will see 2 to 3 inches of accumulation, mainly on grassy and unpaved surfaces. At various times throughout the day we could see slippery travel, as we did last Monday--particularly during the morning commute and when the snow is at its most intense (late morning and early to mid afternoon), when even major roads can become coated for a time.
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 20%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 50%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Chance of I can't believe you're still reading this: 100%
Stay tuned for updates; I will send out further notifications when and if my forecast changes...
I've been tracking the storm and wanted to give you an update: my thinking has not changed in terms of the precipitation type, timing, and percentages I laid out in my most recent forecast.
The current radar:
Wintry weather lingers...
Friends,
That was an impressive couple of inches we had the other night. It wasn't much, but it certainly made an impact.
Expect another dusting or two before all is said and done.
Tonight: Breezy with flurries or brief snow showers possible this evening. No sticking, no accumulation, and no travel problems. High 40, low 26.
Friday: Clouds mixed with sunshine; windy. High 42 (will feel like low 30s); low 28 (will feel like upper teens).
Saturday: Breezy with plenty of sunshine, but still chilly. High 44, low 30.
Sunday: Sunny early; clouding up late. Some wet snow is likely late Sunday night into Monday morning. Expect an inch or two of accumulation and maybe even some more travel problems. High 47, low 31.
Chance of delay Monday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 10%
David Hasselhoff in Germany this week to join the protest against the removal of the last remants of the Berlin Wall. In 1989, Der Coiffure single-Hoffedly brought down that reviled communist symbol by performing "Looking for Freedom" in front of it.Monday: Overcast with rain and drizzle in the afternoon. High 48, low 34.
Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday: Breezy and a bit milder with brilliant sunshine. Highs near 50, lows in the mid 30s.
Friday3/29: Cloudy and rainy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Next weekend: Rainy and cool. Highs in the low 40s.
The first week of April looks to be a transitional week. It begins with highs in the mid 40s (and lows in the low 30s), and ends with highs in the upper 60s (and lows in the mid 40s). Wet, too. April showers and all that.
Temperatures below normal. No blizzard. Also, The Hoff with another bird.
Breezy and warmer this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s. We’ll see increasing winds (and clouds) toward evening. Could see a rain or show shower here and there, but nothing significant or accumulating.
Overcast and chilly Saturday with some showers and drizzle; some wet snow could mix in at times, but nothing to be concerned about. High 42, low 30.
Sunday will see highs in the low 40s; partly cloudy and breezy with increasing clouds and the chance for snow or rain developing toward midnight.
Rain and snow on Monday – mainly rain, as temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s to low 40s.
(Note: it takes very little snow to make the roads slick, even when surface temperatures are mild and it’s just slush on the roadway. Use caution if it is—or has been—snowing, so keep an eye out from late Friday night through Monday afternoon.)
The Hoff screams "Get me outta here, K.I.T.T.!" at his pet white parrot. God, I wish the parrot's name was K.I.T.T. Or Mitch (his Baywatch character). Or Snapper (his character on The Young and the Restless)! Or Heinrich, or something appropriately German. Do you know what he actually named the bird? Simon Cowell. Tuesday looks cloudy, windy, and cool: highs in the low 40s, lows in the upper 20s.
Wednesday looks sunny, but colder and continued windy. Highs in the upper 30s will feel like the lower 30s. Lows in the upper 20s will feel like the lower 20s.
Thursday and Friday will be milder (expect a 3.5% rise in temperatures) with times of clouds and sun. Highs both days in the upper 40s; lows in the low to mid 30s.
Next weekend will be milder still (highs reaching into the 50s) with a bit of rain possible on Saturday the 23rd.
The following week looks rainy and cool. Highs only in the low to mid 40s.
We end March in the 50s and begin April in the 60s.