Snow showers overnight, the colder and breezy, then really really @#*$ing cold.
Right into it.
A few snow showers overnight - I expect them between 11pm and 5am. Should be out of the area by the time anyone has to go anywhere on Saturday morning. Accumulation a coating to two-thirds of an inch. Turning out sunny, breezy, and cold on Saturday. High 34, low 22; wind chills in the 20s during the day and the teens at night.
Another round of snow showers and flurries overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. No accumulation from this one, but look out for slickness on the roadways if they get at all snow-covered. Windy as Rusty, Kramer's bean-eating horse, throughout the day: sustained winds of 20mph with gusts over 30mph. Highs in the mid 30s.
Yes, he included yet another picture of David G.D. Hasselhoff.Monday brings another chance of snow showers early, but don't even worry about it. Gets up to the upper 30s in the afternoon, then gets colder than a polar bear's undercarriage by the nighttime. Low will get down to 18.
Tuesday will be cold. Frigid, actually. High only getting up to 20. Overnight low of 6. Windy, too, so wind chills will dip below zero at night. Nothing like the -20 wind chills from early last week, but still.
On Wednesday we'll see continued frigid conditions. In fact, it will be as bitter as an olive soaked in tonic water. High in the upper teens, low in the middle single digits.
No, I will not stop inventing faux-folksy similes.
Thursday will be cold again. Highs in the low 20s and lows in the teens. But it will be sunny! So there's that.
Friday will be cold again. I mean, it's winter. What do you want? Temperatures that are as warm as a puppy on a quilt in front of a fire?
Alright, that's enough.
So it will be cold on Friday. For the fourth straight day, we will not get above freezing: highs in the mid 20s, lows in the teens.
Hasselhoff posing with (and ostensibly rocking out to) Ted Nugent's first solo album (after he left the Amboy Dukes). Nugent, incidentally, presents an irksome conundrum for me: he is a truly great guitarist, and some of his songs ("Stranglehold," "Free for All," "Wang Dang Sweet Poontang") are among my favorites of all time. And he's a straight-edge hero, famously eschewing drugs and alcohol when he was surrounded constantly with chances to imbibe. And yet he's also an inveterate misogynist (listen to some of his lyrics), a fierce opponent of any sort of gun control, a hunting freakazoid, a vocal Obama hater, an unapologetic bigot, and perhaps most disturbing of all, a registered Republican (and unofficial Tea Party mascot). So, as I said: I'm torn.On the weekend, temperatures may actually pop briefly above freezing! High on Saturday will be 33. Then Sunday's high will be back in the 20s.
You may have noticed that I haven't mentioned snow during this cold snap. We're actually in for a period of cold, dry air. I don't see any precipitation for the period from 1/21 through 1/28, actually. Monday 1/27 and Tuesday 1/28 look partly cloudy, breezy, and cold, with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the mid teens.
Then it gets a little bit interesting.
I see a snowstorm for Wednesday 1/29 into Thursday 1/30. And from Tuesday 2/4 into Wednesday 2/5. The middle of February looks provocative, too.
So the overall message?
A few minor clipper systems give us snow showers over the next few days. Next week will be super cold, so it's going to be important to do things like leave a trickle of water running through your taps, especially if you live in a big-assed drafty-assed old house with single-paned windows, and you would rather not have your pipes freeze.
For example.
So stay tuned for updates and keep warm!
Wednesday miss, but weekend threat?
The Wednesday system, which initially looked promising, now looks like a winter weather dud due to warmer air and storm track. But the models are hinting at something more substantial for Saturday. Here's the forecast:
Listen to David Hasselhoff's disembodied head.Tuesday 1/14: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers overnight and into early Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper 40s.
Getting down to the upper 30s overnight.
Wednesday 1/15: Cloudy with a high of 44. Rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow showers in the late afternoon. If there is any accumulation, it will be very light. Coating to an inch. Low of 29 overnight.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 10%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 30%
Thursday 1/16: Becoming mostly sunny with a high of 39.
Chance of delay Thursday, 25%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 10%
I am too much of a wuss to get an actual tattoo, but if I ever did, it would be this one right here, on my forehead. Go ahead, judge me.Friday 1/17: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold with a high of 42.
Saturday 1/18 will be partly cloudy and colder with a high of 34. There could be some morning and afternoon snow showers, which could slicken roads quickly. Getting down to 20 overnight.
Sunday 1/19 and Monday 1/20 will be sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s, lows in the upper teens.
Some ice and snow possible for Tuesday 1/21. Also looking at Saturday 1/25 into Sunday 1/26 for a moderate snowfall. And the first week of February looks active, winter-weather-wise.
Stay tuned for updates!
Another storm, another arctic blast: Sunday, Monday, and beyond...
So it's cold out. 11 degrees as I type this. Only getting up to 25 today, then heading down to the teens tonight.
And then Sunday looked provocative initially, but it now appears that most of the precipitation we'll get on Sunday will be rain. We will likely see some sleet and freezing rain in the morning, but by noon at the latest, temperatures rise above freezing and this will become a rain event. Temperatures reach, and then hold steady in, the upper 30s to 40 for the rest of the day and evening.
Precipitation will linger into Monday morning, but it will be light, and I believe all of it will fall in the form of rain. We will have a rapid drop in temperatures, but that will occur after the precipitation is over.
In honor of the extreme cold, I give you the movie poster for the 1994 made-for-television movie Avalanche, starring David Hasselhoff, who plays--spoiler alert!--the bad guy. You can tell from the movie poster that he's the bad guy, though, because he is unshaven, wearing black, and lit by a demonic reddish glow. And how it says on the poster, "DAVID HASSELHOFF GOES BAD."So Monday will start in the mid to upper 30s, fall down through the 20s through the afternoon, and reach the teens by 8pm. And then temperatures continue to fall, all the way down to zero during the Tuesday morning commute. It will also be hella windy during all this, so when the temperature is in the upper 20s, it will feel like the lower teens; when the temperature is in the mid teens, it will feel like zero; and when it is in the single digits, expect wind chills in the negative single digits or colder.
This rapid freeze-up will cause some of travel issues as standing water freezes, so watch out for black ice and just plain non-racist ice on the roadways.
If you had snot icicles last night, on Tuesday morning, you will attempt to break off one of these snotcicles™ and your entire nose will come off. I have seen it.
In fact, on Tuesday the high will be 9 (but it will feel like -6 because of the wind) and the low will be -2 (which will feel like -18 because of the wind, but when you're in the negative digits, it's just subtle hues of icy hell, at that point).
Seriously, be careful in weather this cold. Hypothermia can set in more quickly than you realize. Check on the elderly. Whatnot.
Wednesday will be milder with sunshine! The high will reach a robust 22, with the brilliant sunshine making it feel like a balmy 24.
Oh, predictions about delays and such. We will not see any precipitation-related school closings, but the extreme cold on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may prompt some delays, water-main breaks, things like that.
Possibility of delay Monday, 15%
Possibility of cancellation Monday, 10%
Possibility of early dismissal Monday, 20%
Possibility of delay Tuesday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Tuesday, 25%
Possibility of delay Wednesday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday, 10%
Cloudy on Thursday and Friday as another system comes through. This one looks moisture-starved, though, so it should only bring us snow showers. But it still bears watching.
Saturday will bring some precipitation, but temperatures should reach into the upper 40s, so most of that will be rain. But we'll have to watch the front and back ends of that one for some ice.
And that's it! Smooth sailing all the way through to spring. No more snow.
Alright, I have lied. But here's what I can say: I don't see anything close to the arctic deathgrip that will be seizing us on Tuesday.
Good day!
Auld Lang Snowstorm™ update
My good people,
As 2013 draws to a close, we are cold. If you plan on being outside for New Year's Eve, bundle snugly up or reconsider. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s with breezes sending wind chills into the teens.
We could also see a snow shower or two Tuesday afternoon, which will otherwise be mostly cloudy and breezy.
New Year's Day will see predominant clouds with some breaks of sunshine. High will be 33; low 24.
And then Thursday.
Model guidance continues to support a major winter storm. Highs will be around 32 on Thursday, and overnight low will be 14 thanks to arctic air from Canada. So this also points to higher snow totals. Snow starts late Wednesday night and really gets going Thursday morning. It will be windy and nasty during this storm: wind chills in the 20s during the day and below zero at night. Snow will taper late Thursday night, after which it will become even colder, prompting people to look at one another, shiver violently, and exclaim, "God damn it's cold!"
Here are the percentages, revised:
15% chance of a complete miss
20% chance of a 3-6 inch accumulation
40% chance of a 6-10 inch accumulation
25% chance of a 10-15 inch accumulation
For those hapless souls who have to go back to school on Thursday, here are my preliminary school closing predictions:
Thursday delay, 20%
Thursday cancellation, 70%
Friday delay, 65%
Friday cancellation, 40%
(Yes, I realize these percentages do not add up to 100%. They are not meant to. These figures are meant to represent the percent chance of each event. Like, in terms of odds. Math.)
Friday will be cold. Frigid, actually. Like, North Dakota cold. Minot, North Dakota.
(Alright, I looked this up. The high on Wednesday in Minot will be -3. That's negative three degrees. The low? -18. So, not quite Minot cold. But still.)
#alwayswithacar #hangloose #randomfarrahfawcetttshirt #skinnyjeans #hoffcoifBack to Friday. The high will be 16. The low will be 1. One! I shit you not. And it will be bitterly windy, so expect wind chills near zero during the day and in the negative single digits at night.
This is the kind of cold that will make you think you are being somehow punished. You will cry out and your tears will freeze right on your face. Icicles of snot. That sort of thing.
Saturday will be cold again, but less windy. And then Sunday will be a bit milder (high of 36!).
And then on Monday, when everyone else goes back to school, we may not, because of an icy mess.
This is going to be a snowy and icy and cold January, my friends. Gird your loins, and gird them well.
And stay tuned for updates!
Rain, then colder, then cold, then snow?
So here's just a quick update on the weather we can expect over the next week or so. I hope everyone is having a relaxing and safe holiday season!
Rainy Sunday, particularly in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain is heaviest during these times. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s/lower 40s, so no threat of mixing or wintry precipitation, but still watch for wet roadways and some flooding. We could get an inch of rain.
Monday looks breezy and colder. High 37, low 18, but temperatures will feel like the 20s during the day due to the wind.
Tuesday and Wednesday look cold with more clouds than sun. High Tuesday is 30; high Wednesday is 26. Overnight lows in the middle teens both nights. The Mummers will freeze; there may be a flurry around, too. Not a cataclysmic snowstorm, but still, I'll take it.
Speaking of cataclysmic snowstorms: models are indicating a possible Nor'easter for Thursday (starting in the morning, lasting all day). It's very early now, and a lot could change. So it would be wanton speculation to give you snow totals yet. But hey, that's what I do: I wantonly speculate. Here are percentages for you, and these DO add up to 100:
25% chance of a complete miss
30% chance of an accumulation in the range of 3-6 inches
30% chance of an accumulation in the range of 6-10 inches
15% chance of an accumulation in the range of 10-15 inches
It will be cold (temperatures in the lower 20s during the storm), so this would potentially be all snow with higher snow ratios (the ratio of snowfall to liquid content). So, you know, stay tuned.
Friday looks cold with snow or flurries possible.
The weekend looks clear with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.
The next potential winter storms I'm looking at are: 1/7, 1/13, 1/21, and 1/25. And 1/31.
And 2/5.
Then it quiets down.
Updates to follow!
Wet, windy, and warm ... then cold and dry. This is the Monsoon Martin year-end forecast extravaganza. Jubilee. Yuletide.
Compañeros y compañeras,
¡Feliz Navidad!
The rest of this forecast will be in English.
First, let me offer a personal shout-out to longtime friend and Monsoon supporter Bill "The Voice" Snelling, who enabled my Hoffophilia by giving me the most magnificent Christmas ornament since the dawn of time.
And now, the weather.
Sure was warm out there today (Saturday), wasn't it? Snow and snow and more snow in the last few weeks of fall, and then on the first day of winter, we get spring. Classic mix-up, Mother Nature.
Sunday will be windy and cloudy and warm, then wet too. Expect winds 15-20mph and temperatures climbing all the way to 68, shattering the record of 61 set in 1998. Scattered showers and drizzle in the afternoon, then steadier rain likely in the evening and overnight into Monday.
Hasselhoff in a Hawaiian shirt in honor of the balmy temperatures on Sunday. The top several buttons appear to be missing, which is a recurring sartorial issue for Sir Chest Hair of Hoffington.Cloudy and breezy with lingering showers on Monday, with temperatures starting in the 50s, falling through to the 40s in the evening, the 30s at night--and finally down into the 20s by Tuesday morning. So that's a 40-degree drop in only 24 hours or so.
Breezy and cold with times of sun and clouds on Tuesday, with a high of only 35. Snow showers (and even a widely scattered stronger squall) could move through in the afternoon. Overnight low gets all the way down to 16. There's that winter!
Wednesday will be sunny and cold. High 30, low 18. It will not be a white Christmas in this area, unless you are white people--in which case a white Christmas is unavoidable.
Thursday and Friday look a bit milder (highs around 38) with a few clouds around. Overnight lows in the mid 20s both nights.
Saturday and Sunday will be more of the same: highs in the mid to upper 30s, partly cloudy conditions, and overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.
The banner reads "New Delhi Call Center" in case you can't see it. And yes, those are four white guys dressed up like Indian guys, complete with dots on their heads. And this is from the January 1, 2013 parade. And this is real, I promise you, as evidenced by the clip below.Next week starts off in a similar fashion, then a small disturbance will pass through on New Year's Eve, bringing some light snow showers or flurries. Unfortunately, it does not seem like we'll have any rain or snow for the Mummers Parade, but it will be cold (temperatures in the teens and 20s) and breezy, so at least there's that. Although let's face it: they will be so loaded up on cheap beer that they won't feel a damned thing--and it's well-known that sequins absorb heat, so the frigidity will be all but lost on them.
The end of next week looks even colder--highs in the mid to upper 20s, lows in the lower teens--but I don't see any snow to worry about through the January 4th and 5th weekend.
And then...
I'm looking at potential winter weather events around January 7th, January 14th, and January 22nd. And a really active pattern is setting up for the first week of February.
So, you know...
stay tuned.
Saturday question mark.
At first I thought Saturday's potential snowfall was nothing--that the moisture would take an eastward track and all we'd get is some light rain mixed with snow. I was also wary of the impending storm, knowing that local media outlets tend to hype any hint of frozen precipitation as a looming apocalypse.
The storm, late Saturday afternoon.But the models are favoring a colder solution and a track farther inland, the meteorology has caught up to the hyperbole, and so I've changed my thinking.
Here's what I think about Saturday, as of Thursday night:
First of all, I see a wedge of cold air settling into our area. Tonight's low will get down to 11 and Friday's high will only reach 30. Temperatures on Saturday will hold fairly steady in the 28-30 range, so most of what falls will be frozen.
Light snow begins Saturday by 8 or 9am, then will fall more steadily starting around 11am. Snow will continue for the rest of the day. At some point, it will mix with (and change over to) sleet and freezing rain before ending overnight. The timing of that mixing is crucial, both to snow totals and road conditions. I am thinking this will happen later (especially in the Berks area), driving snow totals up. I don't think the changeover will happen until 9 or 10pm.
The storm as it begins to move out, pulling in some warmer air aloft and leading to some mixing.[A quick aside: The Weather Channel, the 24-hour weather doom merchant, has continued its practice of naming winter storms, begun last year. We just got through with Cleon and Dion; this one has been christened "Electra." Throughout the winter, we'll also be treated to Falco, Leon, and Quintus. It's like a 12-year-old boy just learned all about Greek and Roman mythology and then was assigned the task of naming these storms. Juvenile.]
As far as driving, Saturday morning should be fine, but the afternoon and evening will be rather dicey. Best to reconsider any plans that involve extensive travel.
So how much snow will we get? That depends on track and changeover timetable, but right now I'd say 4-6 inches in the Berks area, Allentown, Bucks County and central-northern New Jersey; 2-4 in Philly and its immediate suburbs, as well as south Jersey and New York City; and 6-8 inches or more in the Poconos, interior New York state, and much of New England.
The 1973 Buick Electra.(Note: isolated areas in Chester County, northern Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley look like they'll be in the "sweet spot" of this storm, and may see more than six inches.)
Winds will be calm to light throughout this storm, so we're not going to see any issues with blowing snow. And it will be a fairly wet-heavy snow.
Sunday turns out partly sunny and breezy, so that's nice. Then it gets cold again. Down into the teens Sunday night, then only up to 31 on Monday. Tuesday 12/17 brings another potential (but minor) chance of snow, and the following Saturday (12/21) looks like an icy mess.
David Hasselhoff, dog lover.
December 23rd and 24th have the potential for snow, and then the last week of December will be a frigid hellscape of yuletide joy: highs of 20, lows of 12, icy snow mounds every damn place.
Still looking promising for snow/ice on New Year's Day to screw up the Mummers Parade! Ha. Take that, you sequined shitheads.
As always, stay tuned for updates!
So what's up for this weekend?
I'll tell you what.
Friday, December 6th: Starting out rainy and drizzly and foggy. Temperatures actually drop throughout the day - from 50s in the morning, through the 40s in the afternoon, and finally through the 30s in the evening. Expect rain picking up again after noon, then continuing on and off through the evening and into the night. Maybe mixing with a little sleet overnight, but it'll be tapering by then, so no accumulation. Do be careful if you're out driving late Friday night or early Saturday morning, though.
Saturday, December 7th: breezy and colder with partly sunny conditions. High of only about 40, but it'll feel like the 20s. Overnight lows in the low 20s.
Hasselhoff + ring tailed lemurs = super great party time.Sunday, December 8th: Snow develops about 1 or 2 in the afternoon as temperatures are at (or just a hair above) freezing. Some places could see an inch or two of accumulation. Then the temperature will begin to rise by the evening and the precipitation will mix, then become all rain. It's not terribly heavy precipitation, so whatever falls won't be a big whoop.
Monday, December 9th: Temperatures will be in the mid 30s by Monday morning's commute, so we probably won't see a lot of school disruptions. Rain tapers throughout the morning. The day will be overcast but a bit milder, with highs in the mid 40s.
Chance of delay Monday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 7.5%
Tuesday, December 10th: Chance for rain and snow in the overnight hours, into Tuesday morning. Turning out breezy, cloudy, and colder (again). High just 34. Low Tuesday night, 18.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 14.1%
Wednesday, December 11th: Plenty of sunshine but cold. Damn cold. High of 30 and breezy. Low of 19.
Thursday, December 12th: Sunny and continued cold. High 32, low 16.
Friday, December 13th: Partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 30s. (Balmy!) Low of 20.
Next weekend: Cloudy and rainy, particularly on Sunday. Highs in the mid 40s.
The following week: Rainy to start, then clearing and seasonable - highs in the low 40s, lows in the upper 20s.
Looking ahead: Snow or ice on Christmas!! And a major storm in the wings for New Year's Day (I am really rooting for that one so the odious Mummer buffoonery is shat upon).
Stay tuned for updates!
This is a follow-up to my original post. The purpose of this follow-up is to offer more specific information about the timing and nature of the upcoming storm.
A little bit of snow starts around 2 or 3 Sunday afternoon, moving southwest to northeast. There's not a ton of moisture in this system, so any precipitation will be light to moderate. Mixes with sleet by around 7 or 8pm, then changes over to all sleet. By 3am-ish, I expect that temperatures will rise above freezing and any lingering precipitation will fall as rain. Rain tapers by late morning.
Chance of delay Monday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 8%
Tuesday the 10th is actually looking more interesting in terms of snow and delays as another system moves in late Monday night. There's the potential for a 2-4 inch accumulation from this system, as well as the cancellation of school - due more to timing than severity.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 12%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 31%
And then December 15th-16th is looking good for a potential snow/freezing rain event.
Stay tuned for updates!
P.S. If you have a specific question about location or timing, just email me.