Post-storm analysis; looking ahead
So ... we only got a dusting to an inch of snow, and much of Sunday night (which I had predicted would be rife with windswept snow) was dry. Even areas south of us didn't get the double-digit accumulations that had been expected with this storm. (Manahawkin, New Jersey--whose name is Lenape for fertile, sloping land--picked up 6.1 inches; Monroeville, New Jersey--named after the town's founder and hog-calling champion Sebastian "Soo-wee" Monroe--got 5.3 inches.)
That last thing was made up. I am not sorry.
So what happened? As I told one colleague before I was truly awake this morning (and obviously, before I could choose my words with more discretion): The storm just went down on us.
I will move on without further comment.
David Hasselhoff, trendsetter and visionary, with a cellular phone in a scene from 1989's Bail Out.Despite the relatively minor accumulation, there were a lot of travel issues this morning, particularly in the Philly area and points south and east, where there was a layer of ice hidden under the snow-covered roadways. (There was more rain and sleet there, so that's why the icing happened.) Lots of spin-outs and whatnot. Please slow down, people.
It's very cold today. 18 balmy degrees in the middle of the afternoon. Overnight (early Tuesday morning) it's going to be -2. So that's 20 degrees colder than it is right now. (Math friends, are you impressed? I did that in my head.) Considering the extreme cold and the residual slipperiness, a delay tomorrow would be reasonable.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 52.985%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 8.143%
Getting up to 25 on Tuesday and just above freezing on Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday we could see some snow showers, but, like my Uncle Harry, these will not amount to anything.
Into the upper 30s on Thursday, 40s on Friday, and pushing 50 by Saturday. Then, colder again. I am keeping an eye on potential ice/snow events for Wednesday 3/12 and Monday 3/17. But you know what? Let's just bask in the mercy that Mother Nature has shown us by making the last storm a "miss."
Stay tuned for updates!
The final call.
Not The Final Call, the official newspaper of the Nation of Islam.
The final call, as in my latest thinking about the upcoming storm.
It's a complex and rapidly changing storm, and one that has been problematic for the forecast models.
That's meteorological jargon for "we don't have the faintest g.d. idea about what is going to happen."
But I shall try! It is what I do.
The "bull's eye" (area of heaviest snow) appears to be West Virginia, the upper hump of Virginia, DC and Maryland. And maybe South Jersey. That's in the 8-10 inch range still, and maybe a foot or more in isolated areas.
Philly, Lancaster, Chesco, and Delco look to be just north of this bull's eye, so that would put them in the 4-6 inch range.
Allentown is in the 2-4 inch range.
Reading and Berks are in an interesting position with this storm: I believe the "cutoff" that separates half a foot from 2 or 3 inches will run through Berks. It's impossible to be precise yet, but I would surmise that southern Berks (Gouglersville, Mohnton, Shi-town, Morgantown) will be in the 4-6 inch range, while northern Berks (Temple, Kutztown, Hamburg, Fleetwood) will be in the 2-4 inch range.
There have been (and there will be) other entries in the category I would like to christen the Man Meat Mullet: Chuck Norris, John Stamos circa "Full House," Simon Le Bon, Billy Ray Cyrus, Mario Lopez circa "Saved by the Bell." But no one has ever imbued that most ill-advised of hairstyles with as much je ne sais quois, as much raw sensuality, as much elegance, as The Hoff. NO ONE.Macungie will be in the 2-4 range. (I don't know anyone who lives in this Lehigh County borough, I don't think, but I visited there as a child and love the name. It derives from the Lenape word maguntshe, or "bear swamp." This etymology sounds like something I would make up and try to convince people of its authenticity, but not this time.)
Hampomoxin will be in the 4-6 range. (This is a little burgh outside Philadelphia whose name derives from Hamphomoccaxii, a word the Delaware people had that loosely translates to "the white man wears shoes made of lies.")
Now, see, that one was made up. There's no place called Hampomoxin. But the Macungie action is right on.
Where was I? Ah yes, the weather.
We'll see light rain and snow showers beginning by late this afternoon. Snow falls more steadily by 9 or 10pm. The bulk of the snow (such as it is for Berks) will fall overnight, and snow will be intermittent. It will end by about 9 or 10am Monday.
Here's the thing, though: the air behind this system is REALLY cold. Like, ass-cold. Monday morning at 7am it will be 16 degrees. Overnight from Monday into Tuesday, the temperature will drop to -2. Negative two! So right now it's 38 degrees. 40 degrees colder than that.
In fact, we won't get back up above freezing again until Friday afternoon. I don't see any more snow, really. Maybe a little bit on Saturday the 8th, but no big deal.
Oh! Updated school closing information for Berks:
Chance of delay Monday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 65%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 13.242%
Stay tuned throughout the storm for updates...
The latest on 3/3 snow.
An image from the latest GFS run.Some model runs are shifting the storm southward, but there are many factors that make this difficult for the models to handle - the time of year, the warm air from the south, and the alpha stream, to name three.
There is no alpha stream. I totally made that up.
The point is that I could get into a bunch of meteorological jargon and bore the living scheisse out of you, but I think most of you would like me to just tell you what I think will happen. So here goes.
By about just after noon Sunday, we'll start seeing some light snow showers/flurries/sleet moving in to the area. On and off with this through the afternoon and early evening. I think roads are fine during this bit, with just a few slippery spots here and there.
David "Helloooo ladies, says my chest fur" HasselhoffBy 6 or 7pm Sunday, we'll see steadier snow, intensifying overnight. Tapers in the early afternoon Monday.
I see mixed precipitation on Sunday, but all snow for Monday.
How much?
Lehigh Valley, Berks, central and northern New Jersey, NYC: 4-6 inches with minimal icing.
Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Lancaster Counties: 6-8 inches and a little bit of icing.
Philadelphia, Wilmington (DE), South Jersey: 10-14 inches of snow. In some places, more. And enough mixing that power outages look likely.
West Virginia, northern Virginia, DC, southern Maryland: 6-8 inches of snow and significant icing.
Updated school closing percentages (for Berks only):
Monday delay, 35%
Monday cancellation, 85%
Tuesday delay, 70%
Tuesday cancellation, 38%
And hey, good news! Thursday-Friday now looks like it might be a miss. Might.
Stay tuned for updates! I plan on sending out a thinger on Sunday to reflect the changing realities. Of the situation. You know what I mean.
David Hasselhoff, master of action sequences.
Monsoon's first call on Monday 3/3 storm
But there's this, so it's OK.First, the cold. Low gets down to about 5 overnight into Friday morning. Windy as balls tonight, too.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a couple of light afternoon snow showers possible. High 33. No accumulation.
Sunday will be cloudy and cold with some flurries possible in the afternoon. The storm starts Sunday evening and continues to Monday night. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s for the duration of the storm, so I see a little mixing, but mainly snow. Windy, too, again, just for shits and giggles.
Timing is hard to pin down right now, but I'd say it snows from 9pm Sunday to 8pm Monday, with some flurries and light snow showers lingering in to Tuesday morning. I see accumulations of 8-10 inches. No school Monday and delay Tuesday.
Behind the storm, believe it or not, is a blast of cold air again. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will only get up to the mid to upper 20s.
And Thursday brings another potential snowstorm. Maybe a 4-6 incher. I know. I passed incredulous about 4 storms ago. I have bypassed indignant, too. Now I suppose I am wallowing in exhausted bewilderment.
Friday and Saturday look overcast but milder with highs well into the 40s. And beyond that, I see nothing. I don't mean no snow, I mean nothing. You heard it here first: the world is ending at midnight on Saturday, March 8th, 2014.
Stay tuned for updates!
Hasselhoff - en svensk talkshow
That means "Hasselhoff - a Swedish talk show." In a truly inexplicable development, and one about which I'm not entirely sure how to feel, David Hasselhoff is hosting a late night talk show in Sweden. It premiered today.
The show is filmed in Sweden. Its ads are in Swedish. On the show, Hasselhoff interviews Swedish celebrities. And the whole show is conducted in English. Hasselhoff does not speak Swedish, except in a few crowd-pleasing phrases he's picked up. He has a house band, called Emma and the Hoff-beats. Emma is a skinny little miniskirted bit of Swedish sex appeal who plays the saxophone and engages in awkward banter with The Hoff.
In the first several minutes, he makes several Baywatch and Knight Rider references (both visual and verbal), speaks of himself in the third person, and deeply insults the entire nation of Sweden. Here is an intro called “Snow Watch”:
It is almost futile to go on with the weather (or, indeed, with one's daily life) in light of this seismic development. But:
A few flurries and/or light snow showers on Tuesday, late morning and early afternoon. Amounts to nothing. Breezy with clouds dominating the brave, o'er-hanging firmament. High 32, low 21.
Light snow possible on Wednesday, anytime between 1am and noon. Accumulation of an inch or two at most. Cold day with high of 28 and a low of 8.
Wait. Am I on glue, or does David Hasselhoff now have his own Swedish talk show? He does. OK.
That's Laila, a Swedish celebrity, there on the right. And the Hoff. The name in lights is neat, but I noticed that when he sits down to interview a Swedish celebrity, the camera shows only a portion of the backdrop, and it reads ASS. Not quite well-thought-out, maybe.
School issues:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 4%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 1.923%
Thursday will be cold again. More sunshine, but still cold. Hey, Mother Nature, are you aware that it's a few days until the end of February? Because damn. High 31, low 8.
Friday will be even colder. High of only 26. Son of a brrr.
Saturday brings another chance for some snow. Just some snow showers, though. High 33.
Sunday looks sunny and cold. High 34.
Monday, March 3rd brings snow. This looks like a surer bet, but it's almost a full week away, so we'll see what it looks like by the end of this week. But probably snow.
Cold the rest of the week, too. Below normal, for sure. Another snowstorm on March 10th? Can't be. Might be, though. May be.
Stay tuned for updates!
Spring tease will end today. Snow coming. (Sorry.)
Actual David Hasselhoff quote, proving definitively why he is beyond reproach and above (below?) antiquated notions of "talent" and "success."The mild weekend continues (high in the 50s today). Sunshine and whatnot. Melting. The news had pictures of crews taking advantage in the lull to fill potholes. (I didn't actually see anyone doing that in Reading, and the Penn Street Bridge continues to be an obstacle course of yawning potholes that look as if they could swallow an entire car. But I digress.)
Temperatures will fall through the 40s this evening as a cold front approaches. It will get cloudy, too. Rain and drizzle will begin by 8 or 9pm, then mix with (and change over to) wet snow overnight. I expect the snow to fall between about 10pm and 4am, leaving us a coating to an inch generally. Since we'll be below freezing for the morning commute, slickness is possible.
Possibility of delay Monday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Monday, 8%
Monday turns out mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. High of 34 will feel like the low 20s due to wind. Low 24.
Tuesday looks cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. This is a light disturbance with minimal moisture, so I don't expect accumulation, but remember that any snowfall can cause temporary driving issues.
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 14%
Another system may (or may not) hit us Tuesday night into Wednesday. I think we get hit. It's a little early for amounts, but that's what I do, so here: 2-4 inches.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Wednesday's high will be 28, so this will be all snow. Overnight low, 11.
Thursday will be similar to Monday: intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, high at or just above freezing.
Chance of delay Thursday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 2.995%
Cold on Friday: high of only 27.
Sun and clouds over the weekend with some widely scattered snow showers possible on Saturday. Highs in the mid 30s, lows around 20.
Next week brings another chance of snow (March 3-4) but that looks light.
And then temperatures moderate, reaching levels typical for this time of year: highs in the upper 40s.
Stay tuned for updates!
There's just so god damned much snow.
What a storm. A foot on Thursday morning, then a thundersnow-laden blizzard on the back end.
The numbers are staggering: 20.5" in Birdsboro, 18" in Mertztown, 20.3" in Bethlehem, 18.5" in Gouglersville, 19.5" in North Jersey, 20.2" in Honey Brook, 18.8" here in Reading. Most of the area fell between 12 and 18 inches of snow.
In meteorology (even among hobbyists), there is a tendency to overquantify. To get all number-nerdy and focus on the pressure readings, the temperature gradients, the snowfall totals, the QPF.
But--not to get too philosophical here--this storm is one that reminded me why I am so drawn to forecasting the weather. Numbers are important in forecasting (as in life), but there's the unquantifiable element: the power of nature to overwhelm, and to do so effortlessly.
In Lord of the Flies, a novel about boys stranded on an island, Ralph stares out to sea during a contemplative moment and is "faced by the brute obtuseness of the ocean." He's realizing (with a little "fall of the heart") that the water is going about its ebb and flow indifferently. In the same way, we scurry around trying to outsmart nature, to anticipate it, to control it, to defeat it. And nature rolls on, not to spite us, but with utter disregard of us.
Not sure why I'm in such a ruminative mood. Maybe it's just easier than worrying that the next snow-hunk that falls off our roof is going to be the one that breaks a window. Or that the next gust of wind is the one that dislodges a branch onto a power line. Or that the school year will never, ever, ever end.
There's another little storm coming tonight. I almost can't bring myself to tell you about it, but that's my "job," so here goes...
Yes, I censored the nipples. I thought it would be unfair of me to confront you with unwanted nipples when all you wanted to do was read my blog. You can't unsee things.Snow moves in for most of us about midnight or 1am (Friday/early Saturday). On and off, varying rates until about 1pm. Should only accumulate about 1-3 inches, but remember that it doesn't take much for the roads to become treacherous. I mean, after a foot and a half of snow, this seems like mere child's play. But today's 100-vehicle pileup on the PA Turnpike is a reminder that the key to driving in the snow (more than having a snow-savvy car) is slowing way down and keeping a generous following distance.
Backing things up a bit.
Today is getting up to 41 with plenty of sunshine, so the roads will get better and better as the day goes on.
And then the aforementioned nuisance snow.
Cold over the weekend: high of 28 Saturday and 22 on Sunday. Low of 15 over Saturday to Sunday; 5 overnight Sunday to Monday.
And then some snow/mixed precipitation moves in for Monday night into Tuesday, so stay tuned for updates on that.
And then it gets warmer by the end of next week! I promise it does.
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This son of a bitching storm.
My snow-weary readers,
I wish I could tell you that this storm has changed its track dramatically and now it will be just a flurry or a wisp of drizzle. I wish I could tell you that we won't have 30mph winds and heavy, wet snow that will bring down trees and power lines. I wish I could tell you that we won't get 12-16 inches of wind-driven, crippling snow. And I really wish I could tell you that there's not another storm looming for Monday into Tuesday that promises snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
I wish.
David Hasselhoff takes his pants off.The first flakes will start falling by midnight Wednesday, but it won't really get cranked up until 2 or 3am. Then it snows heavily for the next 14 hours. And the wind speed increases during that time. Tapering begins by about 7pm Thursday, then ends by 1 or 2am late Thursday night/Friday morning. There could be a bit of mixing (especially points south and east of Berks), but this is primarily a wet snow event. Windy and nasty.
Snow totals:
Berks, Lancaster, Allentown, Poconos, extreme North Jersey, 12-16 inches, all snow.
Philadelphia's suburbs, 10-14 inches, maybe a little bit of mixing.
Philadelphia, central Jersey, NYC, 8-12 inches, some mixing in the afternoon.
South Jersey and Delaware, 4-8 inches generally, with plenty of mixing.
Watch for beach erosion and high winds (and waves and all that) along the NJ and Delaware coasts.
Schools:
Chance of delay Thursday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 99.6%
Chance of delay Friday, 92%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 70%
Temperatures remain steady in the upper 20s/low 30s throughout the storm.
Trivia: The Weather Channel has named this Winter Storm Pax, which is Latin for peace, which no it's not peaceful. It's a vicious, crippling winter storm and Pax is a dumb name for any winter storm. Is my sputtering rage at The Weather Channel's alarmist buffoonery coming through?
Depressed again. Here's a video of an orangutan and a dog that are BFFs.
Stay tuned for updates.