What else is there to do?
"Your forecast was off by thiiiiiiiis much."In the face of a major bust, I could throw myself at your mercy or use vaguely ribald terms like "dry slot" and "moisture cutoff," but instead I will just move ahead.
What else is there to do? I am a (pretend) meteorologist. So allow me to meteorologize.
First, it's cold as balls outside. That much is plain to anyone who has ventured out this evening. To quantify it: we're at 22 degrees right now. It will get down to 12 (twelve! a single-syllable number) overnight. Wind chills will be below zero even through Wednesday morning's commute.
On Wednesday, it will only get up to 27, with wind chills in the teens.
Yes, it's been a two-Hoff kind of day. Go ahead, judge me.Thursday brings a chance of snow, thanks to another clipper. Expect snow to start 4 or 5pm Thursday and continue intermittently overnight and into the wee hours of Friday morning (maybe 2 or 3am). Snow will be light and will accumulate only an inch or two, but we could see a delay out of it.
Chance of early dismissal Thursday, 17.98%
Chance of delay Friday, 32.9%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 11.1%
Colder toward the weekend. Very windy on Friday with a high of 31. Even colder on Saturday (high of 22) and Sunday (high of 28). Chance of snow from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, but I can't even go there yet. Like, emotionally. I will begin to look more seriously at it on Thursday. (I am looking forward to using the Super Bowl as a springboard for storm name, if it turns out to be anything.)
Looking ahead, Thursday 2/5 and Friday 2/6 look potentially winter weathery.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monday mid-afternoon update
It's time for "nowcasting," which is a fairly recent meteorological term and a pretty juicy paradox. Basically, it means, describing what is happening and just about to happen, but using weathery, sciencey terms to sound like we knew it all along.
So, to nowcast: The blizzard is trending east, which means less snow for us in Berks.
Still looking at quite a lot of snow for NYC, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire: more than two feet in some places within that range. (The record set in the blizzard of 1947, which dropped 26.4 inches on Central Park, may be challenged.)
Melancholy Hoff.North Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, suburban New York, and into Maine will see 12-16 inches.
Philly and south Jersey look to be in the 8-10 inch range.
The immediate suburbs (Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties) look to be in the 4-6 inch range.
And then it drops off. It's not clear where the boundary will set up, but it appears to be in western Delaware County in a longitudinal line (that's running north and south) from that point. Everything to the east of that boundary will get 4-6 inches. Everything to the west will get an inch or two at most.
So that puts the Lehigh Valley, Berks and Lancaster Counties, and even Chester County in the little-or-no-snow category.
For us, blowing/drifting will be concerns, so a delay is still likely--but an outright snow day Tuesday is looking less likely.
So, updated percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Of course, I will continue to monitor the situation closely and will keep you posted on any changes...
Stay tuned for updates!
A jab, then a haymaker?
A few things to talk to you about:
I couldn't bring myself to taint my blog with a picture of the foul Donald Duck. Instead, I present you with an image of David Hasselhoff as Michael Knight, looking quizzically at Donald Duck (offscreen).1. Donald Duck creeps me out. The dead eyes, the pantslessness, the volatile, hair-trigger temper - is this a children's character or my drunk uncle?
2. I clamored for more "likes" on Facebook to get to 800 and promised untold riches to the 800th. Then I went to sleep. I am now at 816 "likes" and counting, and have no way of determining who the 800th was. My deepest apologies for this lapse. Also, "like" my Facebook page.
3. My prediction for last night's storm was a little low. Heavier banding set up in a lot of places and the storm got here more quickly (making it an all-snow event rather than a snow-sleet-rain event for most of us).
4. We are getting some more, my good people.
First, a clipper comes through. Snow begins by 9 or 10pm Sunday night, continuing on and off throughout the night. Steadiest snow will be Monday morning between 6am and noon. (This is the titular "jab.")
Then, the system churns off the coast and becomes a Nor'easter, which could then slam us. (This is the titular "haymaker"--a term that derives from the use of a scythe with a wide, sweeping stroke to, literally, make hay.) Some forecast models are painting a proper blizzard here: 8-12 inches or more of light, fluffy snow, blown around by high winds. I'm not ready to call this a sure thing, though it does bear watching.
So as of Saturday night at 9pm EST, here are my percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 92%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 67%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 44%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 56%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Stay tuned for updates--they will surely be forthcoming.
Monsoon: I may have jumped the gun with the Nor'beaster©™® moniker, but I reserve the right to use it later
Alright, so it's looking less dire for Friday night / Saturday and the Nor'beaster©™®. Still a Nor'easter, and still some potential travel issues, but the system lacks the blocking, surface temperatures, and upper atmosphere juju to make it truly epic.
What I think:
Obligatory strange, unsettling Hasselhoff picSnow arrives late Friday night, like after midnight. Continues in to Saturday morning, when we'll see a changeover to a brief period of snow/sleet before turning to all rain east to west. Accumulation and travel issues will occur mainly between midnight Friday and 9-10am Saturday. Then rain til early evening, then flurries, then that's it. We're looking at 3-4 inches at most (Lehigh Valley, Berks, Bucks) and 1-2 inches (Philly, burbs) and a coating to an inch (shore).
Overcast on Sunday but no snow and temperatures reaching 40. Monday brings a clipper system that's quite similar to the one that hit us yesterday. 2-3 inches generally and a better-than-good chance of school early dismissals and/or cancellations. (Look for updates on this one over the weekend.) High Monday doesn't even reach freezing (with wind that'll make it feel like the teens); low gets down in to the lower teens (with wind that'll make it feel like the single digits).
Stay tuned for updates!
The perfect storm of travel nightmares.
Slippery travel is most dangerous when motorists are unaware of the potential for problems. Such was the case this morning when precipitation began earlier than forecast--when surfaces temperatures were still at or below freezing--and turned roads and driveways (and especially bridges and overpasses) into a tractionless hellscape of icy white knuckles. Many people slowed down, put on the hazards, and left plenty of stopping distance--but in a lot of cases, none of it mattered. Scores of roads in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland were host to hundreds of crashes, some fatal.
Lesson: if you have to go out in poor travel conditions, take it easy. If you have four-wheel drive, remember that many others do not. Don't be an asshole, generally. And if you can stay home, do it.
So what delights await us for the remainder of January and the first few days of February?
Here.
Monday 1/19 will be partly sunny and quite windy. Temperatures will get in to the upper 30s, but wind chills will be in the low to mid 20s. Overnight, we'll get down to 24 (with wind chills in the teens).
Tuesday 1/20 looks mostly cloudy and seasonably cold (highs in the mid 30s) but much less windy. So it'll actually feel milder.
Wednesday 1/21 brings more thick clouds and a chance for snow. It's a fast-moving clipper system that will give us just an inch or two, but the timing--overnight and into Wednesday morning's commute--could be problematic. (Updates to follow, including closing/delay percentages.)
Sunny and clear on Thursday 1/22 with seasonable highs in the mid 30s; overnight lows will be in the low 20s.
Partly sunny and a wee bit colder on Friday 1/23.
The weekend looks nice. Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s.
The last week of January looks cold (highs in the 20s generally) with snow possible in the 29th-30th time frame.
Maybe a snow/ice event on February 2nd-3rd, too. The first ten days of February, in fact, seem potentially very active.
And just looking ahead, Kim Kardashian's giant ass will cause a complete solar eclipse on February 12th.
Stay tuned for updates!
A quick one: delay tomorrow?
After today's sleet - freezing rain - rain event, what is in store for the coming week?
Today's temperatures reached the upper 30s, but are falling precipitously as we speak. (As I type. You know what I mean.) It's 34 and foggy right now; by tomorrow morning's commute we'll see temperatures in the mid 20s with a stiff northern breeze making it feel like the teens. That will make for a rapid freeze-up, and the water left on roadways will make travel slippery before dawn. So I'm calling:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 4%
Wind chills overnight (Tuesday into Wednesday) will be around zero.
Cold all week, though not nearly as windy.
Milder by the weekend, when we'll have highs in the mid 40s.
Next good chance of snow or related action will be January 21st - 22nd.
Stay tuned for updates!
Snow day tomorrow?
The Hoff, unforgivably, takes Justin Bieber for a ride in K.I.T.T.Let's take a look.
Precipitation begins by 4 or 5am Monday. We will mainly see freezing rain (which falls as plain rain, but freezes on contact with surfaces, power lines, trees, and whatnot) with some sleet mixed in (which falls as frozen pellets, accumulating as it falls). The result looks like potentially significant icing, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation.
4-6am, sleet and snow
6-8am, sleet
8-10am, sleet and freezing rain
10am-12pm, freezing rain
12-2pm, freezing rain
2-4pm, freezing rain with some sleet mixed in
4-6pm, precipitation tapers, perhaps with snow mixing in
Look at this cool map of accumulated precipitation expected through Tuesday morning. Not a ton, but we don't need a lot to make things slippery.High on Monday will only be 33. We'll see significant travel difficulties with this storm due to slippery conditions and some downed lines/tree limbs. There will also likely be scattered power outages from this storm.
[Note: this is for the Lehigh Valley and Berks County region; areas south and east will see much more "plain rain" from this system, and will therefore have far fewer travel difficulties and delays.]
Scheduling:
Chance of delay Monday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 68.9%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 35%
Colder Monday night; watch for a quick freeze-up overnight into Tuesday.
The three-week period beginning on Tuesday 1/20 looks to be quite a bit more active in terms of the potential for wintry precipitation (especially given the relatively quiet winter we've had thus far).
Stay tuned for updates!
A little action this weekend.
It's going to be a wacky weather weekend, especially for winter.
On Saturday 1/3, we'll see some precipitation, heavy at times. There may be a little mixing (snow and/or sleet) as the precipitation begins mid-morning, but I don't see any travel impacts or accumulation for us in Berks (or Lancaster, or Lehigh, or Bucks Counties, or points south). Maybe a couple of inches in Schuylkill County and up toward the Poconos. Early morning temperatures below freezing will rise through the 30s throughout the day. Foggy and misty at night.
Rain lingers in to Sunday morning and tapers by early afternoon. Temperatures climb well into the 50s (even flirting with 60) in the afternoon, and there will be a humid southwest wind that will make people say, "This is hinky weather for January."
Temperatures fall through the evening and overnight, reaching down to 32 by the Monday morning commute. Quite windy and much colder with temperatures only getting to a high of 34 (it will feel like the teens), then plummeting down to 21 at night (it will feel like single digits). It will be the first day back to work for many teachers, and it is as if Mother Nature will be slapping us across our tender faces as we drag ourselves back.
Snow on Tuesday, but just a bit, and it's not even definite. So stay tuned for updates on that one, but for now I think it's minor to a non-event. (Cold, though. High of 28 and breezy.)
Wednesday and Thursday continue the frigid trend: plenty of sunshine both days, but very windy, and the highs only get up to 27 and 22, respectively. (Overnight lows in the lower teens both nights.) Wednesday will feel like single digits during the day with the cold air and wind, and the negative single digits at night. Walking to your car after work on Wednesday, you will turn to a co-worker--even a stranger--and say, "God damn it's cold!" After this utterance, you will shudder and then attempt to curl yourself in to a chill-proof little ball of warmth as you walk.
And then Friday we may actually see temperatures poke just above freezing! So that'll be nice.
Next weekend looks cloudy with snow (changing to rain) from late Saturday night in to Sunday.
The next good chance of snow? January 19th to 20th, and then January 22nd to 23rd.
Stay tuned for updates!