The vicissitudes of mid-March...
Hey there - just a brief forecast about the coming week. Some of you have been hearing about the potential for wintry precipitation on Friday, so here's the straight dope.
Note: the origin of this phrase comes from betting on the ponies. When stimulants had been given to racehorses (that is, they had been doped), gamblers wanted to know about it. The term "straight dope" started as a phrase describing what had been given to those poor animals, then came to mean the (very salient) information itself.
But, as always, I digress.
David Hasselhoff has been cast in Sharknado 3, due out (on Syfy) this summer. It's apparently set in Washington, D.C. and features Mark Cuban (the outspoken billionaire Dallas Mavericks owner) as the President and Ann Coulter (the hatemongering right-wing pundit/columnist/she-devil) as the Vice President. Whatever. Hasselhoff!!!
Tuesday 3/17 begins with a few showers and overcast skies, reaching a high in the mid to upper 50s by early afternoon. Then temperatures fall, winds kick up, and we get a few degrees below freezing by early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday looks windy and colder with highs only in the upper 30s.
Thursday is partly sunny and a bit milder with highs in the mid 40s.
Precipitation moves in late Thursday night into Friday. Surface temperatures will be above freezing, but cold air in the upper atmosphere could bring us some wintry precipitation. Right now I'd say we get mainly rain with a bit of wet snow (melting on surfaces) mixed in. We'd really need snow to fall heavily to accumulate at this time of year, and this won't be heavy. I think it's no big deal.
Chance of delay Friday, 17%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 3.75%
Saturday gets milder (high in the low 50s) but is breezy and overcast generally. A few rain showers are possible overnight into Sunday.
Colder, then: highs in the 40s and lows around freezing on Sunday and Monday. And Tuesday.
Stay tuned for updates!
The last of the single digits
David Hasselhoff has listed his luxury villa in Calabasas, California, for $2.3 million. It has a "sexy bathroom" and everything. I have no idea what that means, but it sounds Hoff-some.A lot of the snow/ice on the roads melted today in the sunshine, but as temperatures get down to 5 overnight, there will be lots of refreezing, especially on secondary roads, in parking lots that weren't completely cleared, and sidewalks.
Here's the encouraging bit: this is the last time we'll get down to the single digits until next winter.
The high on Saturday gets all the way up to 38; we get up to 42 on Sunday.
40s on Monday and Tuesday. 50s on Wednesday and Thursday.
40s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
The next chance of wintry precipitation I see is mid-March.
Sorry, I meant mid-November.
Stay tuned for updates!
Wintry action this week, then it ends. I promise.
Monsoon is ill. The ears, the throat, the nose. So this shall be brief.
On Tuesday, snow will develop by 3 or 4pm, accumulating a coating to an inch. The snow will change to sleet and freezing rain pretty quickly - maybe around 5 or 6 and then changing to plain rain by midnight. Travel in the evening (4 or 5 through 9 or 10) will be treacherous. The ground is frozen, so it'll be slick. And over the weekend, we all saw how quickly conditions can deteriorate, even with very little snow or ice.
Wednesday is rainy all day, but it's plain rain. Temperatures get up to the low 40s.
After midnight on Thursday, temperatures will plunge back below freezing. In fact, temperatures will fall through the 20s during the day and through the teens at night. And it'll be windy. Thursday morning looks snowy - probably the last of the season. Right now it looks like 3-5 inches and a probable delay.
Chance of delay Thursday, 72%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 31%
And then Friday is sunny and cold with highs around 30.
And then the weekend: highs in the low to mid 40s, sunny and clear.
Stay tuned for updates!
Last gasps of winter...
March: it comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.Right now, it is snowing. I say that as an experienced faux-meteorologist, so you can be sure it is probably true.
Wait! Now a bit of sleet is starting to mix in. That's due to warmer air aloft; it's still in the mid 20s at the surface.
The roads are horrible. I mean, people sliding all over the place, cars into embankments, that sort of thing. (Be sure to email me or visit my Facebook page to share travel conditions, snow/ice totals, and the like.)
We have a good two and a half inches out there. I think most of us will be in the range of 3-4 inches by the time all is said and done.
When will it be said and done? Shortly after midnight.
During Monday morning's commute, temperatures will be in the upper 20s, so that's still below freezing, and I expect the roads to be shitty right through mid morning on Monday. After sunrise (and as temperatures soar toward the afternoon high of 31), we'll see some melting and much improved road conditions. Skies clear by afternoon.
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 2%
Hasselhoff: he will kick you in the ass; you will be delighted and ask for an encore.Then Tuesday, surface temperatures will hover right around freezing, so the precipitation we get will be a mixy mess. Starting around 2-3pm, we'll see snow and sleet. Then freezing rain and plain rain at night.
Temperatures are in the mid 30s by Wednesday morning's commute, and will reach a high in the mid 40s by the afternoon! Then temperatures plunge once again, falling from freezing at midnight through the 20s during the day on Thursday, and finally to the upper single digits in Friday's wee hours. (Oh, and there may be some light snow showers or flurries on Thursday.)
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 18%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 34%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 3%
Only gets up to 30 on Friday.
Really nice weekend, though. Sunny, highs in the mid 40s, just fantastic.
So we'll have to deal with wintry precipitation and temperatures through this coming week, but I think it's smooth sailing come Saturday 3/7.
Stay tuned for updates!
Weekend forecast (and beyond)
Saturday will be cold to start - down to 0 overnight. The good news is that it won't be windy, and the temperature will rise steadily from that 0 to 20 by noon, 30 by midnight, and 40 by Sunday afternoon.
Then it gets really, really cold again. High on Monday is only 18, and it's windy. Low overnight from Monday to Tuesday is -1.
You know what, winter? You can go to hell.
Let me talk about the snowstorm on Saturday. Some flurries and snow showers by late Saturday morning, but the snow doesn't really get going until 2pm. Snow won't be constant, but could fall heavily at times. We will likely see some mixing (sleet) as the surface temperatures rise to and above freezing - that's 10pm to midnight Saturday night.
So I see the most hazardous travel times (the times when you don't want to go out unless you have to) as 6pm Saturday to 2am Sunday.
Some mixed snow and rain showers will continue into the overnight hours, ending by midmorning Sunday.
Accumulations will be in the 3-5 inch range, with conditions getting slushy and soppy on Sunday.
Overnight Sunday into Monday, we get down to 18, so all that rain/slush/sop will freeze. And that's bad.
Monday, as I mentioned earlier, will be cold.
You may be thinking, "What did I, your loyal reader, do to deserve this?" And I answer, "No special reason. It's just because you're you!"Tuesday too.
And then snow is still possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so that could be an issue.
It's cold the rest of the week, and then it looks like Sunday 3/1 into Monday 3/2 could bring another winter weather event.
Hey, mother ... nature, meteorological winter runs from Dec 1st through Feb 28th. So stop this shit already, huh?
Starting on Tuesday 3/3, I see an improvement: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. It will feel like a g.d. heatwave.
Preliminary percentages for next week:
Delay Monday (due to freezing), 29%
Cancellation Monday, 11%
Delay Tuesday (due to ass-coldness), 44%
Cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Delay Wednesday (due to more g.d. snow), 65%
Cancellation Wednesday, 38%
Stay tuned for updates!
Low temperatures = high snow ratios and decreased salt effectiveness
Let me tell you.
The temperatures, in case you haven't noticed, have been very low. It's 13 now, and it's going down to 10 overnight. Tomorrow's high will only be 22. This is significant for two especial reasons:
1. Low temperatures mean high snow ratios. The snow ratio is the amount of snow produced for every inch of liquid. So essentially it's a comparison between the snowfall amount vs. how much it would be if it fell as rain. A typical snow ratio is 10:1. This means that if 10 inches of snow melted, it would produce 1 inch of liquid. This storm will have snow ratios in the 15:1 or 20:1 range. Here we're looking at very dry, fluffy snow. So even with only, say, a half-inch of liquid, the accumulations will be in the range of 8-10 inches. (This is going to be the case with isolated pockets in Delaware and Maryland, but not for us here in Berks.)
2. Low temperatures also diminish the effectiveness of road salt. Road salt is most effective when the surface temperature is 20-30 degrees. When the surface (the road) gets down to 15 degrees and below, the effectiveness of road salt falls off dramatically. Which means that when it's very cold, the roads will become snow-packed and treacherous more quickly, and the snow that accumulates cannot be cleared as easily. (Salters and plowers, correct me here if I am mistaken.)
Just a little background there to give you some context. Information: it's what Monsoon is all about!™
Expect snow to start around here by about 10 or 11pm, with the heaviest action falling after midnight.
Snow begins to taper by 8 or 9am and will end altogether by 10 or 11am Tuesday. And then skies will clear gradually throughout the day.
MY CALL:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 93%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 71%
A publicity still from a 1988 German-made madcap comedy called Starke Zeiten (roughly, Groovy Times) that stars Hasselhoff as an American scientist who tries to dupe a Saudi Arabian dude, and has a monkey wearing human clothes. I have not seen this Zugunglück (train wreck), but I will not rest until I do.Overcast with scattered snow showers on Wednesday morning, possibly resulting in delays (but probably not cancellations).
And then Thursday looks fine. Ass-cold, but fine. High of only 12.
Friday morning will be like a recursion of this morning: the temperature will get down to -4, and the wind chills will approach -20. So a cold-weather delay on Friday looks like again.
The weekend looks nice, though! Shit, wait. Snow possible on Saturday and Sunday, with some sleet mixed in on Saturday night.
Stay tuned for updates!
I forgot to say what accumulations I expected. (Thank you to my favorite lawyer-turned-teacher, Alison Clark, for hipping me to that omission.)
Delaware, Maryland, South Jersey: 6-8 inches
Philadelphia, Chester, Lancaster, Delaware, and Montomgery Counties, as well as NYC: 4-6 inches
Berks: 3-5 inches (Note: this will likely be the cutoff area, so some in Berks may get 2 or 3 inches, but others may get 4 or 5. Unlike in most storms, accumulations will actually be higher in the south.)
Lehigh Valley, Schuylkill County, Poconos, North Jersey: 2-4 inches
Icy slippingness.
That is a Members Only jacket with the sleeves pushed up over the sleeves of his turtleneck. And that is a generous-sized belt buckle you see. And that is a smoldering glower daring you to say what you are thinking.Freezing rain, slippery walkways, and treacherous back roads have made an early dismissal that seemed pointless mid-afternoon seem prescient.
We'll see up to a half-inch of ice accumulation on cars and untreated surfaces in most places. Light sleet (but mostly snow) will continue between now (about 7pm) and 1 or 2am. Roads will still be slippery early tomorrow, particularly during the morning commute (before the sun comes up). So...
Chance of delay Tuesday, 64%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 21%
Snow showers are possible late Wednesday night through Thursday night as another clipper comes through. Then it gets super cold. The wind chills will be well below zero. Overnight lows Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, AND Monday night will be in the single digits.
A few snow showers on Saturday 2/14, and then a more substantial snow event is possible on Tuesday 2/17. After Thursday evening (2/12), I don't see temperatures going above freezing until 2/19! That's at least a week below zero. So yeah.
Stay tuned for updates!
Update: Monday 2/9/15
David Hasselhoff wields a guitar like a scimitar in this undated photo. That Hasselhoff has never won a Grammy is as damning an indictment of the contemporary music industry as I have ever heard.First, allow me to invite you to my live-blogging event this evening starting at 8pm EST. I will be making snarky comments about the 2015 Grammy Awards and, I would imagine, lamenting the sorry state of the music industry. I will do so until I can take no more and/or I get tired. (You can make comments too, or reply to my comments.)
So, the weather: This is still feeling like a mainly rain event.
Rain will begin at or just before midnight. It will be mostly light. (The rain will be light. The sky will be dark until just after 7am Monday, when the sun will rise. Actually, the earth will rotate back around so the sun is again in view. Are you still reading this?)
Mixing will start around 8 or 9am - sleet will produce a slick coating on sidewalks and bridges, mainly. I don't see huge travel messes, but still, use caution. You could be driving, like, La-la-la, the road is just wet, there is no ice, I got this and then zzzzzoooop you slide a bit on an icy patch and you pee in your pants a little bit and white-knuckle it the rest of the way home.
Temperatures will hold steady right around freezing until 8-10pm, when they'll drop down below 30.
The last little bit of precipitation from this system--falling from about 4 to 8pm Monday--may even fall as some wet snow, accumulating a half-inch at most.
So my call for delays and whatnot:
Chance of delay Monday, 14%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 31%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 18%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 3%
Tuesday turns out sunny and a little bit breezy with highs in the mid 30s.
Wednesday, too.
Thursday is overcast with the chance of snow, but right now it just looks like scattered snow showers skirting the area.
Then it gets really cold with a low Thursday into Friday of 4 degrees, and a high on Friday of just 18 (and really windy too). Friday night into Saturday we could even see temperatures dip below zero (not wind chills, mind you; temperatures).
Balls-coldness continues right on through the weekend, actually, and we could see a bit of snow on Tuesday 2/17.
And then that's it, I think. No more winter.
Stay tuned for updates!