Thursday delay? Weekend action? Next Friday? A walrus playing the saxophone??
Just wanted to see if you were paying attention on that last one. Although:
Anywho.
Thursday morning at 7am, it will be 3 degrees. Not much wind, so wind chills won't reach dangerous levels. Up to 19 in the afternoon. A few snow showers in the late afternoon and evening. It's not going to accumulate, but be aware that any snow in these frigid temperatures can make the going slippery.
Chance of delay Thursday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 14.675%
Breezy overnight and down to the single digits again. Friday will be sunny and frigid with a high of 17.
Chance of delay Friday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Friday, π%
Saturday looks cloudy and continued breezy with some flurries and snow showers, accumulating a coating to perhaps an inch. No big. High of 33.
Sunday will be cold again. Colder. High of 21. Can't rule out a snow shower or two. This is getting repetitive. Damn.
Monday brings the chance of another storm in the morning, but I think this is a miss. Turning out partly cloudy and breezy with a high of 28.
Sunny and colder on Tuesday with a high of 22 and a low of 9.
Not quite as cold on Wednesday, when the high will get all the way up to 28.
Thursday night into Friday, there's the chance for another storm - one very similar to the one that hit us yesterday. So my preliminary call is 6-8 inches, but a lot can happen between now and then in terms of track and whatnot.
In the words of Frank Vitchard (Luke Wilson) of the third-place Channel 2 news team in Anchorman, "Come on! Augh, god! This is gettin' to be ri-god-damn-diculous!"
And then ... the first weekend of February looks sunny and milder with highs in the upper 30s into the 40s. Might we be finished with the snow? I don't see anything major looming thereafter. But as always...
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!
Snow showers overnight, the colder and breezy, then really really @#*$ing cold.
Right into it.
A few snow showers overnight - I expect them between 11pm and 5am. Should be out of the area by the time anyone has to go anywhere on Saturday morning. Accumulation a coating to two-thirds of an inch. Turning out sunny, breezy, and cold on Saturday. High 34, low 22; wind chills in the 20s during the day and the teens at night.
Another round of snow showers and flurries overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. No accumulation from this one, but look out for slickness on the roadways if they get at all snow-covered. Windy as Rusty, Kramer's bean-eating horse, throughout the day: sustained winds of 20mph with gusts over 30mph. Highs in the mid 30s.
Yes, he included yet another picture of David G.D. Hasselhoff.Monday brings another chance of snow showers early, but don't even worry about it. Gets up to the upper 30s in the afternoon, then gets colder than a polar bear's undercarriage by the nighttime. Low will get down to 18.
Tuesday will be cold. Frigid, actually. High only getting up to 20. Overnight low of 6. Windy, too, so wind chills will dip below zero at night. Nothing like the -20 wind chills from early last week, but still.
On Wednesday we'll see continued frigid conditions. In fact, it will be as bitter as an olive soaked in tonic water. High in the upper teens, low in the middle single digits.
No, I will not stop inventing faux-folksy similes.
Thursday will be cold again. Highs in the low 20s and lows in the teens. But it will be sunny! So there's that.
Friday will be cold again. I mean, it's winter. What do you want? Temperatures that are as warm as a puppy on a quilt in front of a fire?
Alright, that's enough.
So it will be cold on Friday. For the fourth straight day, we will not get above freezing: highs in the mid 20s, lows in the teens.
Hasselhoff posing with (and ostensibly rocking out to) Ted Nugent's first solo album (after he left the Amboy Dukes). Nugent, incidentally, presents an irksome conundrum for me: he is a truly great guitarist, and some of his songs ("Stranglehold," "Free for All," "Wang Dang Sweet Poontang") are among my favorites of all time. And he's a straight-edge hero, famously eschewing drugs and alcohol when he was surrounded constantly with chances to imbibe. And yet he's also an inveterate misogynist (listen to some of his lyrics), a fierce opponent of any sort of gun control, a hunting freakazoid, a vocal Obama hater, an unapologetic bigot, and perhaps most disturbing of all, a registered Republican (and unofficial Tea Party mascot). So, as I said: I'm torn.On the weekend, temperatures may actually pop briefly above freezing! High on Saturday will be 33. Then Sunday's high will be back in the 20s.
You may have noticed that I haven't mentioned snow during this cold snap. We're actually in for a period of cold, dry air. I don't see any precipitation for the period from 1/21 through 1/28, actually. Monday 1/27 and Tuesday 1/28 look partly cloudy, breezy, and cold, with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the mid teens.
Then it gets a little bit interesting.
I see a snowstorm for Wednesday 1/29 into Thursday 1/30. And from Tuesday 2/4 into Wednesday 2/5. The middle of February looks provocative, too.
So the overall message?
A few minor clipper systems give us snow showers over the next few days. Next week will be super cold, so it's going to be important to do things like leave a trickle of water running through your taps, especially if you live in a big-assed drafty-assed old house with single-paned windows, and you would rather not have your pipes freeze.
For example.
So stay tuned for updates and keep warm!
Nuisance snow tomorrow, then mild with rain, then a week of thawage.
Upon investigation, I do not believe "thawage" (THô-ij), the process of thawing, is not, strictly speaking, a word. But I like it, so it stays.
I spent a portion of yesterday taking my dad for medical testing in Malvern (he's fine, but the procedure necessitated that he be anesthetized, so he needed a ride).
Whilst sitting in the waiting room, two older women sat just behind me, openly discussing their maladies and the specialists they have consulted for each. They spoke in faux-hushed tones (the kind of urgent whispers that are actually louder than normal speech). Soon the subject turned to why they had come to this place to consult with a gastroenterologist.
The first woman then said, "This doctor, I hear he's very good."
"Yes," the second woman responded, "he's the ass whisperer."
And at this, out of the corner of my eye, I saw both women nod sagely, then sit in reverent silence.
So, on to the forecast? Shall we?
A weak disturbance will move through tomorrow morning, and it would be barely worth mentioning if not for the timing. I expect light snow in the Berks-Lehigh areas, and some mixing with sleet closer to Philadelphia. We could see snow showers anytime from about 6am to 11am, so some morning commutes could be impacted. Temperatures will not rise above freezing until Friday afternoon, and the ground is very cold, so this precipitation will "stick" quickly. Still, it looks a bit spotty and light to me, and I don't think it will impact our normal action. Accumulations will be a coating to an inch.
Chance of delay Friday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 10%
Then we see temperatures soar to the upper 30s by late Friday afternoon and stay above freezing overnight to Saturday.
Saturday looks warmer (highs creeping into the 50s with warm southern breezes) but also quite rainy. Rain tapers to drizzle and light showers by Saturday evening.
Sunday will be colder (but nowhere near the polar vortex torture chamber of brrr we've been dealing with these past few days). Sunday and Monday will see some peeks of sunshine with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
More of the same on Tuesday. Colder Wednesday and Thursday (highs in the upper 30s, lows in the low 20s).
Next Friday (1/17) marks a glut of famous birthdays. The NBA's Dwayne Wade turns 31, Ray J (whom I will never forgive for making the Kardashians famous) turns 32, and Zooey Deschanel turns 33. Dancehall reggae's Shabba Ranks turns 47, First Lady Michelle Obama turns 49, serial overactor Jim Carrey turns 51, and Steve Harvey (some of whose daytime talk show I saw in the waiting room yesterday) turns 56.
There's more! Roots rocker and sometime actor Steve Earle turns 58, and comic/actor/visionary Andy Kaufman will celebrate his 64th birthday in seclusion in the Antilles, where he has lived since he faked his own death in 1984.
The Greatest, Muhammad Ali, turns 71, Maury Povich turns 74, and James Earl Jones turns 82. (This is the first time in recorded history that these three names have appeared in the same sentence.)
The incomparable Betty White will turn 91.
And Benjamin Franklin would be celebrating his 307th birthday on January 17th had he not died in 1790.
The weather on Friday will be sunny with highs in the 40s.
Next chances of wintry weather are 1/18 (a little ice?), 1/25 (snow), and 1/27 (snow).
Stay tuned for updates!
Wet, windy, and warm ... then cold and dry. This is the Monsoon Martin year-end forecast extravaganza. Jubilee. Yuletide.
Compañeros y compañeras,
¡Feliz Navidad!
The rest of this forecast will be in English.
First, let me offer a personal shout-out to longtime friend and Monsoon supporter Bill "The Voice" Snelling, who enabled my Hoffophilia by giving me the most magnificent Christmas ornament since the dawn of time.
And now, the weather.
Sure was warm out there today (Saturday), wasn't it? Snow and snow and more snow in the last few weeks of fall, and then on the first day of winter, we get spring. Classic mix-up, Mother Nature.
Sunday will be windy and cloudy and warm, then wet too. Expect winds 15-20mph and temperatures climbing all the way to 68, shattering the record of 61 set in 1998. Scattered showers and drizzle in the afternoon, then steadier rain likely in the evening and overnight into Monday.
Hasselhoff in a Hawaiian shirt in honor of the balmy temperatures on Sunday. The top several buttons appear to be missing, which is a recurring sartorial issue for Sir Chest Hair of Hoffington.Cloudy and breezy with lingering showers on Monday, with temperatures starting in the 50s, falling through to the 40s in the evening, the 30s at night--and finally down into the 20s by Tuesday morning. So that's a 40-degree drop in only 24 hours or so.
Breezy and cold with times of sun and clouds on Tuesday, with a high of only 35. Snow showers (and even a widely scattered stronger squall) could move through in the afternoon. Overnight low gets all the way down to 16. There's that winter!
Wednesday will be sunny and cold. High 30, low 18. It will not be a white Christmas in this area, unless you are white people--in which case a white Christmas is unavoidable.
Thursday and Friday look a bit milder (highs around 38) with a few clouds around. Overnight lows in the mid 20s both nights.
Saturday and Sunday will be more of the same: highs in the mid to upper 30s, partly cloudy conditions, and overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.
The banner reads "New Delhi Call Center" in case you can't see it. And yes, those are four white guys dressed up like Indian guys, complete with dots on their heads. And this is from the January 1, 2013 parade. And this is real, I promise you, as evidenced by the clip below.Next week starts off in a similar fashion, then a small disturbance will pass through on New Year's Eve, bringing some light snow showers or flurries. Unfortunately, it does not seem like we'll have any rain or snow for the Mummers Parade, but it will be cold (temperatures in the teens and 20s) and breezy, so at least there's that. Although let's face it: they will be so loaded up on cheap beer that they won't feel a damned thing--and it's well-known that sequins absorb heat, so the frigidity will be all but lost on them.
The end of next week looks even colder--highs in the mid to upper 20s, lows in the lower teens--but I don't see any snow to worry about through the January 4th and 5th weekend.
And then...
I'm looking at potential winter weather events around January 7th, January 14th, and January 22nd. And a really active pattern is setting up for the first week of February.
So, you know...
stay tuned.
Saturday question mark.
At first I thought Saturday's potential snowfall was nothing--that the moisture would take an eastward track and all we'd get is some light rain mixed with snow. I was also wary of the impending storm, knowing that local media outlets tend to hype any hint of frozen precipitation as a looming apocalypse.
The storm, late Saturday afternoon.But the models are favoring a colder solution and a track farther inland, the meteorology has caught up to the hyperbole, and so I've changed my thinking.
Here's what I think about Saturday, as of Thursday night:
First of all, I see a wedge of cold air settling into our area. Tonight's low will get down to 11 and Friday's high will only reach 30. Temperatures on Saturday will hold fairly steady in the 28-30 range, so most of what falls will be frozen.
Light snow begins Saturday by 8 or 9am, then will fall more steadily starting around 11am. Snow will continue for the rest of the day. At some point, it will mix with (and change over to) sleet and freezing rain before ending overnight. The timing of that mixing is crucial, both to snow totals and road conditions. I am thinking this will happen later (especially in the Berks area), driving snow totals up. I don't think the changeover will happen until 9 or 10pm.
The storm as it begins to move out, pulling in some warmer air aloft and leading to some mixing.[A quick aside: The Weather Channel, the 24-hour weather doom merchant, has continued its practice of naming winter storms, begun last year. We just got through with Cleon and Dion; this one has been christened "Electra." Throughout the winter, we'll also be treated to Falco, Leon, and Quintus. It's like a 12-year-old boy just learned all about Greek and Roman mythology and then was assigned the task of naming these storms. Juvenile.]
As far as driving, Saturday morning should be fine, but the afternoon and evening will be rather dicey. Best to reconsider any plans that involve extensive travel.
So how much snow will we get? That depends on track and changeover timetable, but right now I'd say 4-6 inches in the Berks area, Allentown, Bucks County and central-northern New Jersey; 2-4 in Philly and its immediate suburbs, as well as south Jersey and New York City; and 6-8 inches or more in the Poconos, interior New York state, and much of New England.
The 1973 Buick Electra.(Note: isolated areas in Chester County, northern Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley look like they'll be in the "sweet spot" of this storm, and may see more than six inches.)
Winds will be calm to light throughout this storm, so we're not going to see any issues with blowing snow. And it will be a fairly wet-heavy snow.
Sunday turns out partly sunny and breezy, so that's nice. Then it gets cold again. Down into the teens Sunday night, then only up to 31 on Monday. Tuesday 12/17 brings another potential (but minor) chance of snow, and the following Saturday (12/21) looks like an icy mess.
David Hasselhoff, dog lover.
December 23rd and 24th have the potential for snow, and then the last week of December will be a frigid hellscape of yuletide joy: highs of 20, lows of 12, icy snow mounds every damn place.
Still looking promising for snow/ice on New Year's Day to screw up the Mummers Parade! Ha. Take that, you sequined shitheads.
As always, stay tuned for updates!
Mild start to the week, then colder...
Forecast!
Mild with a few showers overnight. High winds developing overnight, then continuing breeziness on Monday. High Monday in the mid to upper 60s. There may be some issues with scattered power outages due to the wind (branches down and whatnot). Low Monday night will be in the mid 30s.
Tuesday will be much colder. Seriously, bundle up. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s, but with persistent breezes, it will feel like the 30s. Overnight low of 28.
Got to teach this soliloquy to a new crop of students on Friday. I saw a sea of profound boredom, but a few glimmers of wonder. It's these glimmers that keep me in the profession...Wednesday looks like more of the same: high in the mid to upper 40s, but with nearly calm winds, so that'll be nice. Oh, and sunshine. Lots of sunshine.
A little bit milder on Thursday - high of about 52 with partly cloudy skies. Continue that for Friday - high of about 54 with partly cloudy skies.
Friday night, another front comes through. Rain and drizzle, maybe even some fog into Saturday morning. Saturday is much colder again - high of only 44. Lows in the mid 20s.
Sunday and Monday will be ever colder: highs will struggle to reach 40, and lows will be around 24.
The remainder of next week looks kinda foul, actually. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s, clouds will predominate, and there's even the potential for a little bit of mixed precipitation in the period from Wednesday 11/27 through Friday 11/29. (I realize that's right over the Thanksgiving holiday, but I do not expect travel to be disrupted. Stay tuned for updates...)
Next weekend (Saturday 11/30 and Sunday 12/1) look kind of deja-vu-y. Highs around 40, overcast and drizzly conditions.
The first week of December looks cold (highs in the upper 30s, lows in the low 20s), but no snow.
And thereafter? I'm looking at an interesting system in the range of December 7th through 9th. Otherwise, you know, cold. I mean, it's winter. (I know it's not actual winter yet, but it's meteorological winter as of 12/1.)
As always, stay tuned for updates!
Windy rainy cloudy sunny chilly windy cold (+ winter outlook).
My good people,
These titular adjectives are the conditions we'll see over the next 48 hours: windy, rainy, and cloudy, then sunny and chilly, then windy and cold. Ah, autumn...
Here's what to expect:
Mostly cloudy and very windy today with periods of rain, ending by around noon. Still unseasonably warm with highs reaching into the low to mid 70s. At kickoff tonight (Mifflin at Weiser), we'll be in the low 60s with diminishing winds. By the end of the game, we will be in the upper 50s.
Clouds mixed with sunshine and breezy tomorrow with a shower or two in the afternoon. Continued unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 60s. Getting chilly overnight, with highs in the low 40s.
Sunday 11/3 looks to be far chillier. It will be sunny but still breezy, and highs will only make it to the upper 40s. Sunday night will be cold as balls (speaking of which, see inset). We'll see clearing skies, diminishing winds, and temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 20s.
Next week starts out partly sunny and continued cold with highs again in the upper 40s. Overnight lows Monday will be around freezing (32°F). Tuesday will be sunny and a little more seasonable with highs in the mid 50s.
Wednesday 11/6 looks to start out sunny and gorgeous and reach a high in the mid 60s. Some rain develops at night and wraps up Thursday morning, after which temperatures will drop once again. Expect highs on Friday and Saturday to be in the low to mid 50s; it will be sunny and breezy both days.
Senhor Testiculo - "Mr. Balls" - is the real, actual, swear-to-God testicular cancer awareness mascot for Brazil's national cancer organization, Associação de Assistência as Pessoas com Câncer (AAPEC). It is a real thing and now you have seen it and you can't unsee it. You're welcome.Cloudy with some rain on Sunday 11/10 and Monday 11/11; highs in the low 50s.
The rest of that week looks chillier, with daytime highs in the mid 40s and overnight lows in the mid 20s.
So ... when will it snow? And what will the winter be like? Lots of snow days? Delays?
As many of you know, I consider long-term forecasting to be a fruitless folly, as it seeks to predict how an almost limitless array of meteorological factors will interact. A sound long-term forecast can be completely derailed if the jet stream dips south unexpectedly or we are the victims of some other unforeseen quirk of Mother Nature.
But winter forecasts are all the rage, and today is the first day of November (I know that because I heard my first Christmas carol in the grocery store this morning), so here goes.
According to the AAPEC, Mr. Balls has become "something of a celebrity" wherever he goes. "Both children and adults loved taking pictures with the mascot, a friendly snowman in the shape of a testicle." Disclaimer: testicular cancer is no laughing matter, and awareness can only be positive. But it takes a lot of ... nerve to create a human-sized, lifelike, unnervingly-detailed scrotum as the face of your publicity campaign.The winter solstice is December 21st and the vernal equinox is March 20th, so these dates mark the beginning and end of winter -- but meteorological winter is traditional considered as running from December 1st to February 28th.
Mild temperatures to begin the season, and I don't see any real snow potential until the last week in December.
January will actually be the opposite of what we're used to: milder to start, then getting colder and wetter.
February is the coldest and snowiest.
Over all: a little light. Not the blockbuster winter we have been wishing for...
Total snowfall: 22-25 inches.
School delays: 4.
School cancellations: 3.
Stay tuned for updates!
A blunk of rainsomeness.
My friends,
Since you became wet when you walked outdoors this morning, you already know that it is raining. If not, spoiler alert: it is raining.
See, look.
So how long will this blunk of squally, tempestuous weather last? To answer this question, we must discuss the origin of the moisture.
The storm contains some tropical elements - the remnants of Troical Storm Karen. But while we will see rain that is sometimes heavy, the impacts from this system should be minimal.
We will be besieged by gloomy weather through Saturday as a high pressure system keeps the storm churning just off the coast. Our immediate area (Berks) will be on the northern edge of the affected region. Here's the forecast, then, for Berks:
Thursday 10/10: Rain, heavy at times - the soakingest output of this storm for us. All day, all night. Temperatures hold steady in the mid 50s.
Friday 10/11: Overcast with rain and showers - and drizzle at times. Moist and dismal, though. Dreary and miserable. Temperatures may creep into the low 60s, but generally it will still be cool. Maybe a little breezier, too.
The Hoff reminds you: do not forget your umbrella. Lush, sexy hair does not simply happen by accident; it must be nurtured, coaxed, admired, and yes--protected from the elements.Saturday 10/12: Cloudy, misty, drizzly. Maybe a shower or two. Not a complete washout, but not a stroll-through-the-meadow type of day either. High in the mid 60s.
Sunday 10/13: Still cloudy, chance of a shower or two. Or some drizzle. Clearing a bit later, though. We may even see a few peeks of sunshine. High in the upper 60s.
Monday 10/14: Indigenous Genocide Day will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
More of the same for Tuesday 10/15 through Thursday 10/17.
Next Friday and Saturday look rainy again, I regret to inform you. But:
Sunday 10/20 will be a sunny, crisp, resplendent fall day. High in the low 60s with a stiff breeze. Overnight lows plummeting well down into the 40s (and maybe even the upper 30s!).
The following week will be chillier (highs in the 50s, lows in the 40s).
No snow on the horizon. I see a slow onset for winter this year: below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures over all in December. January, though, could pack a wallop.
Stay tuned!