My final delay/school closing percentages (until next winter).
Temperatures are falling quickly. Right now (7:30pm) they range from 34 in Mount Penn to 38 in Cumru Township to 40 in Kenhorst.
So will we have sleet or snow? And will we have a delay tomorrow?
I have already received reports of sleet mixing with the rain. And the Doppler looks like this (see below) so there's plenty more where that came from.
I expect the precipitation to end by midnight. Temperatures in most places will be in the lower 30s by that time, so we could see a little wet snow. But no accumulation, nothing serious.
What's it going to be like when we're making our commute tomorrow morning? Right around 7am? About 26 degrees. Winds out of the northwest at 20mph, sending wind chills into the teens.
But I don't see any travel issues. Maybe a slick spot or two widely scattered throughout the land.
School percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 16.65%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.41%
High will only be in the mid 40s with blustery conditions on Wednesday. But temperatures rebound into the 50s on Thursday and Friday, then the 60s for the weekend. (A few showers on Saturday should be the only blemish on an otherwise seasonably nice weekend.)
Quick shout-out to my homies over at Thug Notes. Check out their deconstruction of multiple, unreliable narrators by (in my opinion) the greatest American cracker author.
Winter Weather Advisory until Monday at 8am. (What the eff??)
Gift idea! Only $10K to get the bidding started. Check out the link at the bottom of this post.Alright, so the 75 inches of rain we got this weekend may end in some winter weather. I know, I know. I thought we were finished with the winter weather bull*#!@. But no. Places in central Pennsylvania are already seeing wet snow.
Here's what to expect:
Temperatures will fall through the 30s overnight. The winter weather advisory has been issued for Berks and Lehigh Counties (among other places), but I expect only the northernmost portions of these areas to be affected. So when the winter weather advisory calls for "snow and sleet accumulations 1 to 2 inches along with a light coating of ice," I think only the highest elevations and northern areas in Berks are going to see anything like that.
So by 7 or 8am, we'll see temperatures down around freezing (32°F) with strong winds sending wind chills down into the lower 20s.
Also, with an inch and a half to two inches of rain in most places in PA (and 2 1/2 to 3 in many places in Jersey), we're seeing flooding issues and road ponding in the area.
In terms of the morning commute, the winter weather advisory says the winter weather could impact road travel, but I think the chances of that are remote (unless you're in, like, Shenandoah or Pottsville or Lehighton, or even Hamburg). I don't see much chance for accumulating snow/sleet and do not think road surfaces will be cold enough to lead to slickness and whatnot.
Chance of delay Monday, 18%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 3%
Monday will turn out clearing but breezy; high of 54.
Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly sunny and milder still with highs both days in the mid 60s.
Cooler and rainy by the end of the week (highs in the mid 50s with rain both Thursday and Friday), but I'm thinking it clears for the weekend.
Stay tuned for whatever.
Check out the auction for the Hasselhoff oversized lifeguard figure.
Winter Storm Aretha, March 25, 2014
I have christened the upcoming storm Winter Storm Aretha because March 25th is the Queen of Soul's 72nd birthday. My favorite Aretha Franklin song is 1985's "Freeway of Love," which may make some of you wonder, "What about 'Chain of Fools'? What about 'R-E-S-P-E-C-T'?" No. It's "Freeway of Love," because it asks one of the most timeless and salient questions in the history of song: "How'd you get your pants so tight?" Bit of trivia: I used to call her "Urethra" because I thought it was hilarious. Alright: I still do, sometimes.
Also: the song is now in your head, and for that I am sorry, but not really.
It is Sir Elton John's 67th birthday on March 25th as well. Elton John and Aretha Franklin did work together once - a treacly 1989 duet called "Through the Storm" that was beneath both of them.
It is also Gloria Steinem's 80th birthday (!). If you don't know who she is, we can't be friends anymore.
And it's Domenick Lombardozzi's (Herc from "The Wire") 38th birthday.
The late, great blind blues guitarist Jeff Healey was born on March 25, 1966. He is perhaps best known for his band's residency at the Double Deuce in the Patrick Swayze tour-de-force Road House. (Note: if you have not seen Road House, stop reading immediately and find it and watch it.)
The late sportscasting Renaissance Man and legendary loudmouth Howard Cosell was born on March 25, 1918.
Rapper Juvenile (born Terius Gray) turns 39 on March 25th. Juvenile, perhaps best-known for his hit song "Back that Thang Up," is not to be confused with Juvenal, the imperial Roman poet of the first and second centuries whose Satires are a widely influential verse condemnation of human deviance.
Haywood Nelson, best known for his nuanced portrayal of Dwayne on "What's Happening!!" whose catchphrases included "Hey HEY Hey," "Uh UH!" and "Friendship is a sheltering tree." (That last one might be from somewhere else.) He is a Scientologist, which is kind of unsettling, and is the kind of troubling detail that you have come to expect here at the blog.
And finally, talking horse Sarah Jessica Parker, best known for her role in "Sex and the City," turns 49 on March 25th.
But the snow, Monsoon. Tell us about the snow.
Alright, here's what.
Models have been trending east, so it's looking like a we'll just get a glancing blow from this storm.
Sunny, breezy, and cold on Monday with a high of only 35.
On Tuesday, expect to see overcast conditions with scattered snow showers and flurries between about 8am and noon, steadier snow possible in isolated areas in the afternoon, and tapering snow showers/flurries by midnight. Here's why I think this isn't a big deal:
- The storm track is favoring an eastern solution, so there's relatively little moisture available for us.
- The bulk of the snow will fall during the daytime, and given the sun angle, it will struggle to accumulate on paved surfaces/sidewalks.
- The lack of dramatic phasing will prevent low pressure from intensifying and creating a major storm.
So I think we're looking at an inch or two of accumulation on cars and grassy surfaces.
School percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 6%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 23%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 31%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 11%
Wednesday will be cold and quite windy, with a high in the mid 30s but wind chills in the low 20s. We'll get down to 20 overnight, which is extremely low for this time of year.
But then!
Sunny and warmer on Thursday with a high of 49.
Milder still (with variable cloudiness and a few showers) on Friday with a high of 57.
The weekend looks just dandy: highs in the upper 50s.
April begins with a day in the 60s, then we'll run into some April showers, which are so clichéd. Rainy and cool on April 2, 3, 4, and 5.
Thereafter, a delightful spring.
Stay tuned for updates!
What the hell is this crap about a snowstorm next week?!
Yes. Spring began today, but there's a snowstorm brewing for next Tuesday.
But the vicissitudes - that's the real story here. In the next four days, we're going to see highs in the 50s, then the 60s, then the 40s, then the 30s.
Friday 3/21: mostly sunny and seasonably pleasant with diminishing winds. High 52, low 38.
Saturday 3/22: clouds mixed with sun; breezy and warmer. A few scattered showers in the afternoon. High 64, low 35.
Sunday 3/23: clearing, breezy, and noticeably colder. High 43 (but it will feel like the 30s), low 24.
Jason deCaires Taylor, "Vicissitudes," underwater sculpture, Grenada, West Indies, 2006
Monday 3/24: clear and colder still. High of only 36, low of 22.
Tuesday 3/25: overcast with a chance of rain and snow. The pattern and model indications suggest a major snowstorm, but it's far too early to get a handle on it - especially a late-March storm like this, one that is so vulnerable. If all things don't come together just right - track, arctic air, sun angle, moisture content, and so forth - this "snowstorm" will be a harmless non-event.
Colder than normal the rest of the week: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. Then warmer again for the last three days of March. Then colder again to start April. (There's even some wintry mix action possible on April 1st and 2nd.)
I don't see this vicissitude-ish pattern abating until about a third of the way through April. And then: consistently milder - springlike, even - with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Snow chances Sunday night to Monday
Bjerknes. He looks learned, to be sure, but he also seems to have a chip on his shoulder. Like, if he had to throw down, he could. He'd much rather discuss mathematics and whatnot, but if a fool is angling for an ass-whooping, he could apply it. Say something else, punk. I will slap you up one fjord and down the other.Happy Friday, Happy Pi Day, and Happy Birthday to Vilhelm Bjerknes, a Norwegian physicist and meteorologist whose work provided the basis for modern forecast models. He was born 152 years ago today. (He is dead.)
Speaking of forecasting...
Models are picking up a system moving through here on Sunday night into Monday. For a while it looked as if the track would be farther south and the solution would be warmer. Trends are shifting and evidence is mixed, but I am staying with a minor event for most of our region.
Breezy and milder today with a high of 54. Variable cloudiness will thicken late as a few widely scattered showers move through. (These are rain showers, though. The low will only be 38 overnight.)
Saturday could start with a scattered shower or two, but clear later. High 55, low 42.
Variably cloudy and colder on Sunday with a high of only 38. We'll have a few snow showers late Sunday night (after 9 or 10) overnight into Monday morning. Some forecast models suggest a moderate snowfall from this - in the range of 3-5 inches generally. I think this storm has too much going against it (time of year, sun angle, location, blocking potential), so my call is a coating to an inch.
School impacts:
Chance of delay Monday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
The high on Monday only gets up to 32. Overnight low 23.
Then Tuesday is milder with highs in the 40s, which is where our highs will be throughout next week.
By next weekend we'll see highs in the 60s, then moderating to highs in the 50s the following week.
I know I usually end a forecast with "stay tuned for updates," but that's especially vital here. If I change my thinking as newer models come in, I will post here and on my Facebook page.
Stay tuned for updates!
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Trying to drum up traffic to the site by using a favorite spam come-on: I am not beneath that.
What to expect today and tomorrow:
Scattered showers from mid-morning Wednesday through mid-afternoon. Thunderstorms possible late afternoon and early evening (5 to 7, roughly). Not everyone will see them, but those who do will see high winds and heavy rain (but not a whole lot of lightning).
The temperature will rise to about 50 in the late afternoon, then tumble through the 40s starting around 6pm, then through the 30s by 9pm, and into the 20s by midnight. And into the teens by the Thursday morning commute!
The mystified Hoff. "What ... the ... Hoff ... is that?"High on Thursday will be 26. Low in the upper teens.
Precipitation will be rain, perhaps mixed with a little snow or sleet at the end, but accumulations will be a coating at the most.
The two most significant issues will be "flash freezing" and "wind."
"Flash freezing" is a colloquial weather term that refers to rapidly dropping temperatures. The cold front that moves through will drop temperatures from 52 at 6pm Wednesday to 18 at 6am Thursday - a drop of 34 degrees in 12 hours - which qualifies. That could freeze up everything that's left on the roads from the rain, causing travel issues.
And gusty winds will howl overnight: 30-35mph sustained with gusts near 50mph.
So:
Chance of delay Thursday, 38%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 9%
Seasonably milder on Friday and for the weekend: highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Slight chance of snow showers Sunday night and Monday morning. No accumulation.
Stay tuned for updates!
Updated thinking on the freezing rain event - 2/19
So a couple of things have changed: temperatures will be colder and the solution looks a bit juicier. Surface temperatures won't rise above freezing until about 9am on Wednesday, and the precipitation will start around 7am, so it appears that there will be a brief period of freezing rain.
(This is just for Berks/Lehigh and points north and west. Lancaster, Chester, Philly, Delaware County, South Jersey - this will just be a bit of plain rain.)
It's going to get down into the mid 20s overnight, so the potential for slippery roadways/sidewalks is going to be greatest between 7am and 9 or 10am.
New school percentages:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 60%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 21.775%
Also: thanks to several of my readers who added snow-driving peeves of their own. Robin ranted about the snow mounds at every intersection, particularly in residential areas. A motorist driving a regular-height car cannot see around them, and so must make his or her peace with death before entering blindly into the roadway. Other folks were talking about the insidious narrowing of the streets, and the fact that passing another car on the street is now a nail-biting proposition.
Still haven't heard from any plowers/salters/road crews/township maintenance types/Penndot workers about why the roads are so persistently and pervasively shitful. Talk to me!
And be sure to forward your driving/weather complaints/grievances to me as well...
I am going to collapse into bed now and cough and sniffle until I fall asleep.
Is there anything to worry about for tomorrow?
Weather-wise, no. Small chance of freezing drizzle or fog. But we'll probably just see some light rain showers and drizzle/mist in the morning. Wednesday will turn out partly sunny and milder with a high of 44.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 1.75%
Same temperatures with a few late showers on Thursday.
Breezy and milder (high 52) with occasional showers on Friday.
Cooler over the weekend with highs in the mid 40s (Saturday) and the lows 40s (Sunday). Mostly sunny and breezy.
Still keeping an eye on a system that could bring us s*** next week, Monday into Tuesday. Also looking ahead to a potential snowstorm on March 2/3.
Moving on, though.
I have noticed, in my travels around this area, that many roads are a screaming shit show of slush and ice and compacted snow. In residential and semi-rural areas, lots of people report that the roads have not been plowed or treated at all ("I haven't seen a plow in nine days," said one source, who shall be kept anonymous). Parking lots are rife with ice patches and sadness. And the potholes. Oh, the potholes! They are especially rutty and haphazardly distributed across the roadway this season.
I don't want to accuse municipal/township workers of failing to do their jobs here. So I will just put it as a question: could we be doing better? Is there any reason why the roads and lots cannot be clearer? Must I feel like I have dodged death each time I make it safely to any destination? If you are (or know) a plow driver or salter, or whatever, I would appreciate some clarification...