CLIPPER CALL
So we're looking at a little snowstorm.
Snow develops by 11am (ish). Heaviest snow will be from about 1:45 to 4:53. Then tapering through the evening.
Accumulations will be in the range of 2-2.8 inches (Berks, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Bucks Counties) and a coating to 1.88 inches in Philadelphia, Montgomery, Chester, and Lancaster Counties.
He is saying, "Choooooch."So we won't see any snow by AM commute, but we could see some early dismissals out of this.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 4%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 22.77%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 63%
Chance of delay Thursday, 36.777%
Chance of actress Linda Blair, former Journey frontman Steve Perry, and Philadelphia Phillie Carlos "Chooch" Ruiz having birthdays on Thursday, 100%
Travel will be slippery throughout the region, especially in the afternoon and early evening. Be careful.
Looking at a coastal storm for the weekend that could be our first major snowmaker of the season. We're still 4 days out (it would hit Saturday), but this bears watching.
A bear, watching.
Stay tuned for updates!
The perfect storm of travel nightmares.
Slippery travel is most dangerous when motorists are unaware of the potential for problems. Such was the case this morning when precipitation began earlier than forecast--when surfaces temperatures were still at or below freezing--and turned roads and driveways (and especially bridges and overpasses) into a tractionless hellscape of icy white knuckles. Many people slowed down, put on the hazards, and left plenty of stopping distance--but in a lot of cases, none of it mattered. Scores of roads in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland were host to hundreds of crashes, some fatal.
Lesson: if you have to go out in poor travel conditions, take it easy. If you have four-wheel drive, remember that many others do not. Don't be an asshole, generally. And if you can stay home, do it.
So what delights await us for the remainder of January and the first few days of February?
Here.
Monday 1/19 will be partly sunny and quite windy. Temperatures will get in to the upper 30s, but wind chills will be in the low to mid 20s. Overnight, we'll get down to 24 (with wind chills in the teens).
Tuesday 1/20 looks mostly cloudy and seasonably cold (highs in the mid 30s) but much less windy. So it'll actually feel milder.
Wednesday 1/21 brings more thick clouds and a chance for snow. It's a fast-moving clipper system that will give us just an inch or two, but the timing--overnight and into Wednesday morning's commute--could be problematic. (Updates to follow, including closing/delay percentages.)
Sunny and clear on Thursday 1/22 with seasonable highs in the mid 30s; overnight lows will be in the low 20s.
Partly sunny and a wee bit colder on Friday 1/23.
The weekend looks nice. Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s.
The last week of January looks cold (highs in the 20s generally) with snow possible in the 29th-30th time frame.
Maybe a snow/ice event on February 2nd-3rd, too. The first ten days of February, in fact, seem potentially very active.
And just looking ahead, Kim Kardashian's giant ass will cause a complete solar eclipse on February 12th.
Stay tuned for updates!
A little action this weekend.
It's going to be a wacky weather weekend, especially for winter.
On Saturday 1/3, we'll see some precipitation, heavy at times. There may be a little mixing (snow and/or sleet) as the precipitation begins mid-morning, but I don't see any travel impacts or accumulation for us in Berks (or Lancaster, or Lehigh, or Bucks Counties, or points south). Maybe a couple of inches in Schuylkill County and up toward the Poconos. Early morning temperatures below freezing will rise through the 30s throughout the day. Foggy and misty at night.
Rain lingers in to Sunday morning and tapers by early afternoon. Temperatures climb well into the 50s (even flirting with 60) in the afternoon, and there will be a humid southwest wind that will make people say, "This is hinky weather for January."
Temperatures fall through the evening and overnight, reaching down to 32 by the Monday morning commute. Quite windy and much colder with temperatures only getting to a high of 34 (it will feel like the teens), then plummeting down to 21 at night (it will feel like single digits). It will be the first day back to work for many teachers, and it is as if Mother Nature will be slapping us across our tender faces as we drag ourselves back.
Snow on Tuesday, but just a bit, and it's not even definite. So stay tuned for updates on that one, but for now I think it's minor to a non-event. (Cold, though. High of 28 and breezy.)
Wednesday and Thursday continue the frigid trend: plenty of sunshine both days, but very windy, and the highs only get up to 27 and 22, respectively. (Overnight lows in the lower teens both nights.) Wednesday will feel like single digits during the day with the cold air and wind, and the negative single digits at night. Walking to your car after work on Wednesday, you will turn to a co-worker--even a stranger--and say, "God damn it's cold!" After this utterance, you will shudder and then attempt to curl yourself in to a chill-proof little ball of warmth as you walk.
And then Friday we may actually see temperatures poke just above freezing! So that'll be nice.
Next weekend looks cloudy with snow (changing to rain) from late Saturday night in to Sunday.
The next good chance of snow? January 19th to 20th, and then January 22nd to 23rd.
Stay tuned for updates!
Boxing Day forecast!
The tag from Bunk's costume. Note how untroubled--even delighted--the dog in the picture appears as a stuffed Santa sits athwart him.First, throughout this forecast, by popular demand, you will see pictures of The Bunk. It has been some time since I have featured him in a forecast--an oversight that merits immediate correction.
So the weather. It has felt a lot more like early October than late December for the past few days, and that trend will continue through the weekend.
Here's what to expect:
Friday 12/26 - Boxing Day and the first day of Kwanzaa - more clouds than sun, highs in the upper 40s. Breezy, but a lot less windy than today. Lows around 30.
Saturday 12/27 - John Amos' birthday - partly sunny and rather mild, highs in the low 50s.
Bunk in his costume. Note how morose he looks. His is the thousand-mile stare of a creature wondering how he has wronged his humans, and wherefore they have thus forsaken him.Sunday 12/28 - Denzel Washington's birthday - overcast with a chance of rain showers on and off beginning about 2-4am. Temperatures reach the mid 40s but then drop through the 30s by Sunday night.
Monday 12/29 - the 844th anniversary of Thomas Becket's assassination inside Canterbury Cathedral, as well as the birthday of Danny McBride - overcast to start with a few scattered rain and snow showers (with no accumulation or travel impacts), then turning out partly sunny. High of 38, overnight low of 28.
Tuesday 12/30 - the birthday of both Matt Lauer and Meredith Vieira, so, you know, banner day on "The Today Show" - breezy and colder. Times of clouds and sun, high of 36. Overnight low of 24.
Wednesday 12/31 - New Year's Eve, Tim Mathieson's birthday, and, most crucially, from 9pm to 12:30am on CNN, Anderson Cooper and Kathy Griffin will host their annual festival of awkwardness and inappropriateness - overcast and cold with some flurries possible. High 33 (wind chills in the 20s), low 22 (wind chills in the teens).
Thursday 1/1/15 - the first day of the New Year and Paul Revere's 280th birthday, and Frank Langella's birthday, AND Grandmaster Flash's birthday - sunny and cold and windy. High of 31 and low of 22.
The Bunk lounges, his favorite activity. A human has called his name, as evidenced by the look that says, "What trifles dost thou disturb me with? Cannot you see that I am in my repose? Waketh me not unless you have a treat to proffer."Friday 1/2 - Pernell Whitaker's birthday - overcast with sleet and snow overnight.
Beyond - Ice ending as rain for that first weekend of 2015. Looking at the periods of January 9-10-11 (1/10 is George Foreman's birthday) and January 14-15 (1/14 is Carl Weathers' birthday) for some wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned for updates!
Messy, soggy, chilly week ahead -- but nothing too rough
Motivational poster; words by Michael ScottSo there's a Nor'easter on the way, and it will dump lots of rain (but probably nothing else) on parts of our area. The SparkNotes version of the forecast is this: a lot of precipitation, but mainly rain on Tuesday; snow showers on Wednesday and Thursday that won't amount to anything; and milder beyond that. And the rain represents depression or something.
Here's the full version of the forecast.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
Motivational poster; words by Dwight SchruteAlright. Happy medium.
Monday 12/8: In the mid 30s throughout the day. Precipitation begins by 8pm. Look for snow and sleet mixing in overnight, but by Tuesday morning, all will be rain. Up to 2 inches of rain for us; more in Jersey, so ponding on roads and even some flash flooding is possible. Precipitation ends by midnight, and I think it's gone before the cold air builds in, so the vast majority of the precipitation will be rain. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Windy on Tuesday: 15-20mph with gusts above 30mph, so it will actually feel like the 20s (teens at night).
Wednesday 12/10: Rain and snow showers on Wednesday morning and afternoon, but nothing that will accumulate or make things nasty. High in the mid to upper 30s.
Motivational poster; words by SchmidtThursday 12/11: Breezy and cloudy with scattered rain and snow showers; highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday 12/12: Clouds mixed with sun. High in the low 40s; lows in the upper 20s.
The weekend looks partly sunny with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s - a perfectly delightful mid-December weekend.
Beyond: Milder, generally. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 30s. I don't really see any appreciable wintry precipitation until December 26th-29th.
Stay tuned for updates!
Welcome to December, the tenth month (...?)
It is December. Today is the first day of the month. December has 31 days. "December" comes from the Latin decem, meaning "ten," because December was originally the 10th month on the Roman calendar. (It followed September, the 7th month; October, the 8th month; and November, the 9th month.) Then a succession of Roman emperors added months and whatnot, and there was a papal intervention, and egos took over. And, as happens when egos and government and religion become involved, something clear and simple became convoluted and irrevocably complex. So the last four months of the year are still called September, October, November, and December, but the names no longer make a damned bit of sense.
But the weather. What of the weather?
Mild today, at least to start. Mostly cloudy with a passing shower possible in the early afternoon. Temperatures will reach the mid 50s by noontime and then tumble precipitously throughout the rest of the day. By midnight it'll be around the mid 30s.
Much colder Tuesday 12/2 with temperatures holding steady at or just above freezing. A weak cold front will bring some precipitation, some of which will be frozen. Expect snow showers mixed with sleet in the afternoon and early evening. I don't see any accumulation here, but there could be a few issues with visibility or slipperiness in the evening commute.
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.441%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 12.992%
Cloudy and milder on Wednesday with a passing rain shower or two in the morning. High around 50, low 34.
Not quite as mild, but clouds will still dominate on Thursday. High 44, low 31.
Friday looks overcast and chilly with highs in the upper 30s. Potential for a bit of rain and sleet, especially toward evening, so I'll keep an eye on that.
The weekend will be overcast with highs on both days in the mid 40s. And on both days, scattered rain showers are likely.
Seasonable (and actually sunny) next week! Highs in the upper 40s, lows in the mid 30s. Getting colder toward the end of the week.
The next real chance of frozen (or freezing) precipitation beyond the forecast period looks to be December 16th - 17th.
Stay tuned for updates!
GobbleBlock 2014©®™
An angry-assed turkey.Here’s an update on the storm I have christened GobbleBlock 2014©®™. A final call (if necessary) will be issued late Tuesday night.
There are a number of factors here:
- time of year (late November rather than January)
- speed of the storm (it’s going to zip through)
- warm surface temperatures prior to the storm (70s on Monday, 50s Tuesday)
- little indication that there will be heavy mesoscale banding with this storm
- less than impressive temperature gradients
So what does this all mean? Here’s what to expect on Wednesday 11/26/14:
Rain begins by 7 or 8am. Changes to snow by 10 or 11am. Heaviest snow likely between 2 and 4pm. Snow tapers by 8 or 9pm.
Temperatures will be in the mid 30s all day, falling below freezing by 9 or 10pm. Thanksgiving Day looks partly sunny and dry with highs in the mid 30s.
Accumulations:
- 2-3 inches in Berks and Lehigh Counties
- 3-5 inches in the Poconos and north Jersey
- 1-2 inches in Philly and its immediate suburbs
- coating to an inch places south and east of Philly – so if you’re travelling, the roads should just be wet
School impacts:
- Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 22%
- Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 44.75%
Travel impacts:
The snow will be wet and heavy, so when it snows, the road will get tightly packed with snow, and will therefore be slippery. Worst time to be on the road is anytime between noon and 6pm. Thereafter we should see tapering, but be careful of icy/slick spots in the evening due to dropping temperatures and the darkness. Oh, and the winds. So yeah, maybe don’t go out Wednesday night either.
Flights will be delayed and cancelled, I am sorry to say – particularly those flying in or out of areas affected by the rain/snow/wind/low ceilings (Philadelphia, NYC, Newark, and Boston). By late Thursday morning, most of this should be cleared out and travel (by car, plane, bicycle, or foot) will be getting back to normal.
On Thursday, the Eagles will beat the Cowboys by a score of 34-17.
Have a good holiday and, if you are travelling, be careful.
DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK
"Don’t call it a comeback / I been here for years / Rockin’ my peers and puttin’ suckas in fear / Makin’ the tears rain down like a monsoon / Listen to the bass go boom / Explosion, overpowerin’ / Over the competition, I’m towerin’."
That’s LL Cool J, right there. Ladies Love Cool James. 24 years ago. Man.
Anyway, guys, thank you, for real, for your emails and words of concern when I said I was taking a hiatus. What I’ve realized, though, is that I am a forecaster. And forecasters gotta forecast. It’s not even like a choice. It’s like … a destiny and shit.
So there’s a low pressure system due to track up the east coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is the busiest travel day of the year. It’s a Nor’easter, and rumors are swirling that it could produce eight to twelve inches of accumulation and travel miseries aplenty.
Back up the wagon, there, Hoss. Put the horses back in the barn. Pry your chaps out your crack. So forth.
Here’s what I think:
Precipitation starts as rain on Wednesday morning about 7-9am. Surface temperatures will be in the mid 30s at this point, rising to the upper 30s by noon. Then temperatures will begin to fall; how quickly they do so and how pervasive that cold is in the atmosphere will determine how nasty it will get. (Storm track as well. This will all become clearer in the next few days.)
I think we begin seeing wet snow mixing in by 2pm. Travel through mid-afternoon will be mostly problem-free. The rain, which will be heavy at times, may cause some delays (particularly in roadways prone to flooding and for airlines, where low ceilings could pose a problem), but generally, travel should be fine.
Even when wet snow begins to mix in with the rain—and even when it begins to proper snow, as the cold air aloft makes its way down the column of air—the roads will just be wet. Any afternoon accumulations will be on grassy and unpaved surfaces.
Wednesday evening is when you don’t want to be out and about so much. From 6pm to about 11pm it will be snowing, and it will be a wet, obnoxious snow that will reduce visibility to about 2 ½ feet. So travel delays on Wednesday from dinnertime on will be fairly widespread (driving or flying).
And then the wet snow tapers to flurries and snow showers, ending by about 6am Thursday.
Accumulations:
- South Jersey, Delaware – an inch of accumulated wet snow at most
- Philly, central Jersey – a wet inch; two inches at most
- Chester County, Berks, Allentown, Montgomery County – one to three inches
- Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 6%
- Chance of early dismissal Wednesday: 18%
Full forecast for the coming week (and beyond) appears below. But if you really only care about Wednesday’s thing, then stop reading.
This is David Hasselhoff (right) with Kid Cudi. Kid Cudi is not LL Cool J, but he is another rapper, so that counts.Monday 11/24: rain overnight, heavy at times, tapering by 8 or 9am. Temperatures rising into the upper 60s behind that front. Windy, too, in the afternoon, but it won’t be a brisk type of wind from the northwest; it will be a soupy wind from the south-southeast, like a mouthbreathing creeper respiring on your neck on the subway.
Tuesday 11/25: sunny and seasonable. Getting windier and chillier as the day goes on. Early high near 50, but then fall through the 40s into the 30s in the evening.
Wednesday 11/26: the thing I talked about above with the rain and the wet snow and whatnot. Look at it.
Thursday 11/27: Some flurries possible early, then turning sunny and breezy. High about 40.
Friday 11/28: Cloudy to start, then clearing. Highs only in the mid 30s.
The weekend: highs in the lower 40s. Overnight lows in the 20s.
Do you see any snow on the horizon? Nah. I actually see a bit of a warming trend, with highs in the 40s or even 50s for the first half of December. Next windows I am looking at include December 14-15 and December 20-21. And December 24-25!
Stay tuned for updates!