Could it be a White Christmas?
A wintry mix tonight (Sunday 12/24). Wet snow and rain not really getting going until after 9 or 10pm. Maybe an inch or two of slushy accumulation, ending before daybreak on Monday 12/25. There might be some slippery spots overnight, especially on bridges/overpasses. But unless you're out late on Christmas eve, or you are Santa Claus, you will not experience any travel issues with this little event.
Christmas day will be colder (high 35) and very windy. (Sustained winds 20-30mph with gusts 40-50mph!) Good day to hunker down and spend time with the fam.
Tuesday 12/26 will be sunny and cold: high 29, low 17. Still kinda breezy.
Wednesday 12/27 and Thursday 12/28 will be sunny and a bit colder: highs in the mid 20s, lows in the low teens.
Friday 12/29 is definitely going to be cloudy and cold (high in the mid 20s), but right now there's about a 50/50 shot of having a snow event.
Another potential snow event will be around on Saturday 12/30 (late afternoon, evening, and overnight).
Stay tuned for updates on the 12/29 and 12/30 events.
Then it's just continued sunny and cold on 12/31 and 1/1. My fervent annual hope that snow/ice/rain will thwart the Mummers Parade by dampening its inimitable melange of sequins and racism - well, that wish looks as though it will be unfulfilled this year - but at least it will be cold (20s most of the day).
Enjoy the times of the holiday. Family. Hearth, or whatever.
Monsoon
P.S. Remember to keep submitting questions about weather or not-weather that may well be answered in a forthcoming post!
Forecast for December 12th through 26th, 2017.
First of all, there's no sugarcoating it: my call for the December 9th storm was a spectacular fail. In case you missed the forecast, I called for a coating to an inch around here, and in case you were out of town, we got 4-6 inches generally in the Reading area. I could explain why I was wrong, and why we got more snow than I expected, but you don't want to hear that. So here's my promise:
I, Monsoon Martin, will use every foible and stumble as a learning experience in furtherance of becoming the very best amateur forecaster since the invention of the SuperDoppler.
And so, we move forward.
No reason. Why?Overnight Monday into Tuesday, we'll see some light snow showers as a Clipper system skirts by to the north, but nothing major. (For reals.) I don't expect any accumulation or travel/school impacts from this system. High on Tuesday is 42; low is 22 with increased winds.
Wednesday will bring the coldest air of the season. It will be weather that thoroughly earns the label applied to it by many who walk in and through it: cold as balls. Mostly sunny, but the high will only be 28 - and add in 20-30mph winds with gusts over 40mph, and it will feel like 14 degrees. (At night, the low will dip to 18 - with a wind chill of 2. TWO!!)
On Thursday, another Clipper comes through, and I think we're just looking at some snow showers (Thursday afternoon) with little or no accumulation and no travel impacts.
Another thing on Friday afternoon, but again, that just looks like snow showers at this point. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be around freezing (32); lows around 20.
This weekend - Saturday the 16th and Sunday the 17th - looks drier and less frigid. Those who enjoy venturing outside will find their environs much more hospitable. Highs near 40, lows in the upper 20s, plenty of sunshine.
Cloudy and fairly mild on Monday ahead of a system that will bring us a few (rain) showers on Tuesday. Highs both days in the mid 40s.
Wednesday 12/20 looks a little chillier with plenty of sunshine - high of 40, low in the mid 20s.
Thursday 12/21 (the solstice for you heathens - the day with the shortest period of daylight and the longest period of night ... no light) will bring some rain showers (and maybe a snow shower or two later on). High in the upper 30s.
Friday 12/22 will be rainy, chilly, and gross with a high in the mid 40s.
Next weekend - Saturday the 23rd and Sunday the 24th - will be overcast and cold (highs in the upper 30s) with a chance of accumulating snow on the 24th. This is good news for anyone hoping for a white Christmas (racist) but less auspicious news for those traveling on the 24th.
Monday the 25th - celebrated by Christians as "Christmas," marking the day when Kris Kringle and his elf assistant Buddy rolled an ice rock aside, emerged from a hobbit hole, Kringle saw his shadow, and heralded in six more weeks of winter - will be mostly sunny and chilly with a high of 35 and low in the teens.
And finally, Tuesday the 26th - celebrated by the British and their friends as Boxing Day, commemorating the day on which the landed gentry would engage in spirited fistfights over the leftover Christmas ham. At least it was celebrated as such, with a delightful jigsaw and bread pudding, until a certain British expatriate up and decided to go to Cape May without so much as consulting anyone - will be overcast and cold with temperatures hovering around freezing.
Please continue to submit your questions (about weather or not weather) to Ask Monsoon™©Ⓡ by clicking on the words "submit your questions" above and then asking me questions. I will choose the best/most interestingly bad questions and answer them here.
And as always, stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon
It's my first snow forecast of the season and I can barely contain my excitement!!!!
So there's a coastal storm on the way, and the forecast models have shifted its track to the northwest, putting it more toward the Lehigh Valley and Phila suburbs area, and increasing totals for south Jersey.
Here is what to expect.
Snow spreads southeast to northwest beginning tonight at about midnight. (That's Saturday 12/9/17 at 00:00 for those of you on maritime/military clocks.) So snow will begin first in south Jersey, then Wilmington, then Philly, and so on.
In Berks, look out for snow between about 8am and 3pm. It's not going to snow steadily during that period - we are on the outer edge of the storm, so I expect impacts around here to be fairly minimal. Expect scattered light snow showers and maybe a squall (short period of heavy, wind-driven snow) or two.
Totals:
South Jersey, 3-5 inches (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)
Philadelphia and suburbs, 1-3 inches (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)
Berks County and the Lehigh Valley, coating to an inch of snow (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)
Impacts:
During a squall, conditions are wack - extremely low visibility and quickly covered road surfaces. But in general, just slow down a bit and you'll be fine.
The high on Saturday will be in the mid 30s; the overnight low will dip down to 24.
Sunday 12/10 will be mostly sunny and breezy, but an isolated squall or light snow shower cannot be ruled out in the early morning. High 36, low 23.
There's a chance of some mixed rain and snow showers on Monday evening into Tuesday, but I don't expect that to impact morning commutes.
Thereafter:
Getting obnoxiously cold the second half of next week. Wednesday's high will only be 30; into the lower teens at night. Thursday, Friday, Saturday - a few degrees higher each day, but not a dramatic warmup. Sunday 12/17 will see a high of 36 and a low of 19.
Oh - and one last thing: I would like to inaugurate a new feature on the blog: Ask Monsoon™©Ⓡ. I invite you, my faithful readers, to send me questions (click on those words and an email will magically compose itself). These questions can, of course, be about the weather, but they can also be about whatever topic you choose. I am an enthusiast of many topics, and am renowned as a man who knows a little about a lot.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon
In this follow-up, I will forecast the storm for two places not covered by my original post: Princeton, NJ and Nutley, NJ. I regret the omission.
Princeton: Snow begins by 7am or so on Saturday and continues on and off throughout the day. Tapering by late afternoon / early evening. Accumulation 2-4 inches. Dramatically reduced visibilities during squalls, obvi. Road conditions a bit slippery but not treacherous. You know, I should do a road condition meter. Like 10 is smooth sailing, no issues and 1 is do not attempt to drive or you will surely die. Remind me.
Nutley: Snow by 7 or 8am, tapering by 6 or 7pm. Accumulation 2-4 inches. Road conditions: a bit slippery, but take it slow and you'll be fine. Dramatically reduced visibilities during squalls, obvi.
Monsoon
Mother Nature be fickle, yo.
Evidence:
October 30, 2011 - high of 39. A freak snowstorm downs leaf-laden limbs. Mass hysteria.
October 30, 2016 - mostly sunny, high of 82. Rain and thunderstorms late afternoon and evening.
And October 31, 2016 - cooler and a bit breezy; mostly sunny with a high of 56.
The first day of November will be partly cloudy with a high in the low 60s, and then the second and third days of November will see highs in the low 70s again (and maybe a shower or thunderstorm on Friday as a cold front moves through).
Sunny with highs in the upper 50s for the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th. And no rain forecast for Election Day (until later in the evening), which is fortunate, because if there's one thing we Americans lead the world in, it's finding any possible excuse not to vote.
And now, on to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):
When will we have a hard frost to end the misery of seasonal allergy sufferers? First hard frost will probably be around the 18th of November.
When will it snow? The 2nd half of November is setting up in a pretty wintry pattern, so I think we'll see the first measurable snow of the season by the end of November.
Will we have a white Christmas? So racist, and no, at this point, it doesn't look like it.
Will it be a cold winter? Not especially. I mean, it's cold in winter. But the only really frigid period I can foresee is the 2nd half of January, when temperatures will dip into the teens.
Will it be a snowy winter? I see more mixed events than snow at this point given the dominance of La Nina. But this far out, nobody really knows. Anyone who claims to is selling something. (To paraphrase Cary Elwes' character in The Princess Bride.)
The Eadweard Muybridge's birthday storm
Yes, I named it after photographer and motion picture pioneer Eadweard Muybridge, who was born on April 9, 1830. (An animated series of his photographs appears in this post.)
Anyway, snow on April 9th. What in the name of Old Man Winter's frosty nostrils is going on?
So Friday 4/8: Breezy and cooler with times of clouds and sun. High of 50, or just a hair above, but it's going to feel no warmer than the low 40s.
Saturday 4/9 will start out right around freezing and won't get out of the 30s all day. Expect scattered snow showers between about 6am and noon, which will mix with (then turn to) rain. We may see a bit more snow as the precipitation moves out, around 6pm to 8pm. (Winds will increase late Saturday as well.) Fortunately, this is April and it would need to snow furiously for a good long while to accumulate on paved surfaces. So aside from slightly reduced visibility during snowfall and about a coating to an inch of accumulation on grass and whatnot, the Eadweard Muybridge's birthday storm will have little impact.
I forgot to talk about Sunday 4/10. So now I will.
Clearing, sunny, highs in the mid 40s. Totally fine.
Boo ya.
The vicissitudes make the average.
Hi.
Let me address one of my weather peeves: the notion that temperatures are going to be "10 degrees above normal" or "15 degrees below normal for this time of year." When forecasters talk about "normal" temperatures, they're talking about the average, or mean. Averages often reflect huge range differentials.
For example: the average high for today's date (March 30th) in Reading, PA is 56 degrees. The actual high today (3/30/16) was 59 degrees. On the same date in 2015, it was 56. On 3/30/14, it was 47. 2013, 53. 2012, 61. The average of those five years is 55.2 degrees. When calculated using all the years available (that is, going back to 1943), it would come out to 56.
So when the temperature was 61 on 3/30/12, we were not "5 degrees above normal" ... it was just 61 degrees. When it was 47 on 3/30/14, we weren't "9 degrees below normal" ... it was just 47 degrees.
Which brings me to the next six days.
Historically, the average high temperature for the period from March 31st to April 5th is 57 degrees.
Let's look at what to expect in the coming six days:
Thursday 3/31: sunny to start, but increasing clouds and wind by late afternoon. Some showers in the evening and maybe even a thunderstorm. High of 71.
Friday 4/1: breezy and quite warm with a shower (and widely scattered thunderstorms) in the morning and early afternoon. High 74.
Saturday 4/2: partly sunny and quite windy with cooler temperatures. Watch for a stray shower. High 60.
Sunday 4/3: colder still with a few snow showers (!) possible early Sunday morning. Still windy. High 43.
Monday 4/4: overcast with a few rain showers in the afternoon. High 51.
Tuesday 4/5: overcast with snow showers (maybe even enough to coat grassy surfaces and whatnot, but not enough to cause travel disruptions) turning to rain. High 44.
So that's a wide range of temperatures. Highs ranging from 45 to 75. (Lows, accordingly, ranging from the 20s to the 50s.)
The average of all of the widely variant high temperatures is ...............
Wait for it.........
57 degrees.
BOO YA!!!!!
Stay tuned for updates.
And happy 68th birthday to Rhea Perlman on March 31st.
And happy 44th birthday to Jill Scott on April 4th.
Monsoon
P.S. If there any errors in my use of the maths or math terminology, please tell me, math teacher friends. But be gentle.
Update on the Spike Lee-VE (Vernal Equinox) Storm.
First, it was brought to my attention that in recent years, former NBA star Mookie Blaylock went into a downward spiral that included alcoholism (that led to seizures), DUI arrests, and finally an accident in which Blaylock hit another driver head-on, killiing her. He's now in prison, having been convicted of reckless driving and vehicular homicide. So, you know, his nickname was cool, but this is some heavy stuff - and unsuitable for naming a pesky little late-season storm after.
And so I hereby christen this storm the Spike Lee-VE Storm, for the filmmaker / agitator turns 59 on Sunday, if you can believe it. (Coincidentally, he played a character called Mookie in the film Do the Right Thing, but I think that character was named after Mets centerfielder Mookie Wilson.)
So all kinds of crazy talk is floating out there: we're getting 6-12 inches of snow, we're gonna have several days off of school, we're doomed, Donald Trump is going to be our next President.
None of this is going to happen.
Let me just tackle the weather bit for now.
Here's what to expect:
Light snow starts late Saturday night, right around midnight. Light snow showers overnight and into Sunday morning. This is a very wet snow - this fact, combined with the very warm surface temperatures and the lightness of the snowfall, will result in only a bit of accumulation on grassy areas and parked cars, but just wet roads and no travel headaches.
When the snow becomes steadier - I expect this to happen in the early to mid afternoon on Sunday - we could see a bit of accumulation on paved surfaces (roads and whatnot) and a bit more difficulty in travel. The snow tapers by 8 or 9pm and should be gone altogether by about 1am Monday.
Still, use caution on bridges and overpasses, and be on the lookout for slick spots developing overnight Sunday that could linger into Monday morning's commute.
Accumulations: an inch or two on grassy areas; an inch on roads.
School:
Chance of delay Monday, 14%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 1.77%
Monday turns out windy and chilly with a high in the low to mid 40s (but wind chills in the low 30s).
60s and 70s by the end of the week!
Monsoon
Vernal Equinox Snowstorm?!?!?!
March 20th is the birthday of basketball great Daron Oshay "Mookie" Blaylock. The band Pearl Jam originally called themselves Mookie Blaylock, changing the name before released its first album, but naming the debut album (Ten) after Mookie's uniform number.Hi.
I really thought winter was over. Meteorological winter ended on February 29th. And the actual season of winter will end on Sunday night, March 20th.
It's the vernal equinox (from the Latin vernus, of the spring, and the Latin equi + noctium = equal night). And it may bring a consarned, flibberty-gibbeted, sum-bastardy snowstorm.
But it probably won't.
It's a Nor'easter - a coastal storm. In order for us to get accumulating, school-canceling, travel-snarling snow (given the sun angle, the surface warmth due to the mild recent temperatures, and all that), we'd have to get heavy snow for an extended period, and we'd have to get just the right shot of arctic air, and the track would have to be just right.
All of which could happen. I just don't think it's likely.
Right now I'd give us a 6% chance of this materializing into a snowstorm worth a good g.d.
Of course, you should stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon