Super Bowl Sunday 2021 snow forecast
Regarding tomorrow's snow:
Monsoon
P.S. As much as I hate Tom Brady, I think the Bucs are going to win the game. Prediction: 24-13.
I will tell you now about the outside conditions expected for approximately the ensuing ten days
aka the Forecast.
New format: I am going to offer one single forecast for the entire greater Philadelphia region. If the forecast for Berks (or Lancaster, or Princeton, or Cape May), I will mention it. Otherwise, you can assume that the greater Philadelphia forecast applies to you as well.
Monday 2/25: windy as balls. Really gusty ones. High in the mid to upper 30s, but it'll feel like the 20s. (Gusts over 50mph at times, which whoa.) Low in the low to mid 20s. Sunny, though!
Happy birthday on 2/25 to Herbert Manfred ("Zeppo Marx"), who is dead.
Tuesday 2/26: sunny and still breezy, but not as bad as Monday. High in the mid to upper 30s, low in the upper teens to low 20s. Like, a serious wintry day.
Happy birthday on 2/26 to Tony Randall, who is dead.
Wednesday 2/27: becoming cloudier. Then overcast. A slight chance of afternoon snow showers, so much more likely is a dry, cloudy day. Temperatures steady in the low to mid 30s.
Happy birthday on 2/27 to John Steinbeck, who is dead.
Thursday 2/28: since this is not a leap year, this will, in fact, be the last day of February. Expect clouds mixed with sun, and highs in the low 40s. A bit of snow developing overnight Thursday into Friday. Literally, it will span two months.
Happy birthday on 2/28 to Frank Gehry, who was born on this day in 1929, and who is ... well, I'll be damned, he's alive and well. In fact, he is pictured above reacting to my assumption that he was dead.
Friday 3/1: overcast with highs in the upper 30s to near 40. Rain and drizzle, with wet snow and freezing rain more likely in Berks and areas north and west.
Happy birthday on 3/1 to Roger Daltrey, who is still one of the most kick-ass rock singers ever and who is definitively not dead.
Saturday 3/2: overcast with rain and drizzle; temperatures could get into the upper 50s and even 60s. We could even see a thunderstorm! Shit ya not. (Stays a bit chiller up in Lehigh Valley and Berks: highs in the upper 40s, but still rain and drizzle.) Then becoming much colder and very windy at night.
Happy birthday on 3/2 to Laraine Newman, because I haven't had a woman on here yet, and what the shit is that about. Oh, and she is not dead.
Sunday 3/3: sunny and windy with highs only getting up to the mid 30s. (That's barely above freezing, which is 32°F.
Happy birthday on 3/3 to Ruby Dandridge, who is dead.
Monday 3/4: snow, mark it down. Or maybe not. But it looks pretty likely.
Happy birthday on 3/4 to Patsy Kensit, who is not dead. I admit it: I did not think this through, the whole birthday shout-out thing. I mean, I've done eight now, and I have two more to go. Nothing to do now but just see it through.
Tuesday 3/5: morning snow, then clearing. I'm serious! For reals.
Happy birthday on 3/5 to Marsha Warfield, who is not dead. And yes, I am going to have five women in a row to balance out the five men in a row with whom I started this ill-conceived enterprise.
Wednesday 3/6: clearing, but still cold. Mid-30s at best. (Maybe 40 in Montco, Chesco, Delco, and ... Philco?) Milder thereafter - 40s, 50s, and beyond.
Happy birthday on 3/6 to Pauline Matthews ("Kiki Dee"), who is not dead.
Stay tuned for updates...
Weather ruminations and forecast update
Here's the thing about the weather, and I find it both maddening and exhilarating: it does what it wants.
There are 4-5 major forecast models (and myriad lesser ones) that rely on data and algorithms and trends to develop a forecast. It should be noted that these models rarely agree, which should be a clear signal that the weather almost seems to be actively resisting being accurately predicted. Like, you think you can forecast me? Well, watch this.
In more specific terms, even with all of our technological advances and measurement tools and whatnot, forecasting certain kinds of weather still feels like--at best--a notch or two above a coin flip.
Meteorologists have gotten pretty good at predicting temperatures, pretty good at reading the isobars and isotherms, shit like that. But when it comes to any kind of precipitation, forecasting is downright hapless. And with "hyperlocal" forecasting, which purports to be able to pinpoint the exact conditions you will encounter when you step outside the door, the accuracy seems to have gotten even less reliable.
How many times have you checked the weather on your phone and it says "it's raining, you're gonna get soaked, abandon hope," but you go outside and it's not doing shit? Birds singing, blue skies, dry pavement? Idyllic as you please.
Or it says that snow will begin in 17 minutes, but it actually began about an hour ago and already stopped, and never starts up again?
As it relates to the weekend storm, various weather outlets and meteorologists (and the forecast models that, to a large extent, drive them) will tell you exactly when it's supposed to start precipitating; when it's snow, or freezing rain, or plain rain, or sleet; when the roads will be slippery. But there's so much happening in the atmosphere during a storm that this certainty is laughable. 95% of those predictions will be wrong, and the other 5% got close because a broken clock is still right twice a day, which come to think of it, is one of those rare sayings that works with us old-heads (clocks with hands) and young-uns (digital jawns) alike.
One neighborhood will get 10 inches of snow while the next one over gets 4 inches. Hamburg gets mostly rain, but Shillington gets ice and snow. Shouldn't it be the other way around?
Last thing on this: there are so many layers to the atmosphere (each one is like its own ecosystem), and so many currents and streams in that atmosphere that move warm air and cold air and tepid air hither and thither, that it's a wonder any storm forecast is ever accurate. Because really, when it comes down to it, despite the GFS, the NAM, the Euro, Siri, Alexa, Google, and your mom--we have little understanding of why things happen.
So what are you saying, Monsoon? You're not going to even try to navigate us through this meteorological minefield? You're just throwing up your hands?
Alright, so here's the forecast and I'm going to do six zones, because that's the type of magnanimous and inclusive motherfucker I am:
Philadelphia and surrounding counties: snow starts around 1pm Saturday, accumulating an inch or two. By 6 or 7pm, snow mixing with, then changing over to, rain, which continues overnight. Sleet mixes in around 7-9am, then temperatures begin their plunge, so back to snow by 10-11am. Snow tapers by mid-afternoon and is finished by 4pm. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Lehigh Valley and Berks: snow starts about 12-1pm Saturday, accumulating 2-3 inches. Snow mixes with sleet between 10pm and midnight; plain rain overnight (about 12-5), then freezing rain, sleet, and snow from 5-8, then snow from 8am-2pm Sunday. Total accumulations: 4-6 inches of snow and sleet. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Lancaster, York, and Cumberland: Snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain straight away (1pm-midnight). Plain rain overnight. Maybe a bit of snow at the end (11am-1pm Sunday). Very little if any accumulation. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon and evening, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
North Jersey and NYC: Snow arrives 3-4pm Saturday. Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain around midnight, then changes over to sleet and freezing rain. Expect 2-4 inches of snow and ice from this storm, as well as several days of travel paralysis. Oh! And power outages. A little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but nothing that will add to storm totals appreciably. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice, travel woes, stay inside).
South Jersey: this looks like an all-rain event for you lucky sons of bitches down the shore. Maybe a little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but don't you dare complain about that. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative single digits by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: maybe a little slipperiness on Sunday afternoon? Then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice).
Bucks County and central Jersey / Princeton: rain and snow start by around noon Saturday. Becomes all snow after 5 or 6pm. Then mixes with sleet 9-10pm, then after midnight it's all rain. Changing to sleet and freezing rain by 5 or 6am, then maybe a bit of snow on Sunday afternoon. Total accumulation, 2-4 inches of sleet and snow. Pretty gross, sounds like. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday evening and overnight, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Stay tuned for updates!
Snow?
First of all, I want to wish my nephew a happy birthday. He's a year old today! Love ya, Griffin.
Anywho. The scuttlebutt is that there's some snow in the forecast this weekend.
I wondered where the term "scuttlebutt" came from, and thought it had to do with coal or fireplaces (for there is mention of a "coal scuttle" in Dickens' A Christmas Carol), but I was not quite correct.
The term, nautical in origin, actually refers to a cask or barrel (a butt) of drinking water kept on the deck of a ship; this vessel had a hole (or scuttle) in its lid so that sailors could access the water. Since the sailors often exchanged gossip whilst partaking in this fresh water, the term for a rumor became scuttlebutt.
So the scuttlebutt was literally the water cooler of the 19th century.
Sailors round the scuttlebutt, portrayed as far more staid and polite than they actually likely were.And for those who are now wondering what in Dickensian hell a "coal scuttle" is, it's a bucket or pail (a scuttle) which contains a modest supply of coal for feeding a coal-fired stove or heater.
This what happens when I decide to write a forecast: I cannot simply activate the prognosticational portion of my brain without activating all of it.
The weather.
It now looks pretty certain that the snow will stay to our south, giving us just a dusting.
The deets.
Light snow moves in about 8 or 9pm Saturday. Little or no accumulation, but remember that even a dusting can cause travel woes on untreated roadways. Maybe a snow shower or two overnight and early Sunday morning, ending by 5am and accumulating a coating to seven-eighths of an inch. Lingering light snow shower through the rest of Sunday morning, but no big.
Cold. (I mean, January. Expect that shit.) Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will see highs just at or below freezing (32) and lows in the upper teens or low 20s. Calm wind, though, which will make a significant difference.
Tuesday (pronunciation in Philly and immediate suburbs: TOOZ-dee) it'll get all the way up to 40. A frickin' heat wave.
Looking at a smaller system for Wednesday night into Thursday that could give us snow and/or freezing rain.
That's all.
April 7th snowstorm. I shit you not.
*sighhhhhhhh*
Hi.
It's windy as balls today, but you already know that. Lots of downed power lines and branches. Winds will diminish overnight.
Thursday 4/5 will be sunny and breezy (but much less windy than today). High in the mid 40s.
The Bunk = all of us.Precipitation begins early Friday - we could see a little bit of wet snow mix in between 2 and 6am Friday, but I don't think it accumulates or causes any travel disruptions.
Overcast for the majority of Friday with occasional showers, especially in the morning.
Snow develops (mixed with rain and sleet at first) early Saturday morning (around 4-6am). Snow continues throughout the rest of Saturday morning, tapering by mid-afternoon. Temperatures staying in the mid-30s throughout the day.
Timing and track are extremely important for this storm; the earlier it starts to snow, the more accumulation we'll see. I'll update the forecast on Friday.
Accumulations:
For Berks, Lancaster, Lehigh Valley, Harrisburg, and York - expect 4-6 inches.
Philly and South Jersey are going to see a lot more mixing, so some areas will just see a slushy coating and some will get as much as 2 inches.
Sunday turns out sunny with a high in the low 40s.
There's the chance of mixed precipitation on Monday into Tuesday, but it's looking like that will be mostly rain and will not be an issue travel-wise.
Stay tuned for AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ENOUGH ALREADY
THE WINTER THAT WOULD NOT DIE
There is the potential for snow on Sunday 4/1 into Monday 4/2.
This is not an April Fools joke.
(I will pause for a moment for you to react to this news in whatever way you feel.)
Alright. So let's talk about what to expect on Saturday 3/31 through the first week of April.
Saturday 3/31 - sunny for most of the day with a high in the upper 50s. Kinda breezy at night. Only getting down to the mid 40s.
Sunday 4/1 - today is the day that Christians celebrate Easter. It is also the birthday of reggae legend Jimmy Cliff (1948), The Minutemen's D. Boon (1958), and YouTube douchecanoe Logan Paul (1995).
[Incidentally, The Minutemen are my favorite band of all time. I could talk about them for days, but I will not abuse your attention in that manner.]
So it's going to be partly to mostly cloudy on Sunday. High of around 55. A bit breezy, but jeez, deal with it.
Expect scattered rain showers to develop by 9 or 10pm Sunday night, so this action should not impact Easter plans or travel.
Temperatures drop into the mid 30s overnight, but are even colder aloft, so it's likely that the rain showers will change to snow - maybe 3am-8am is the window for potentially accumulating snow.
Possible accumulation is an inch or two at most. But the timing could impact the morning commute.
The sun will rise on Monday 4/2 at 6:46am, so the sunshine (even obscured by clouds at first) will melt/mitigate any slippery accumulation.
Becoming mostly sunny with a high near 50. Some rain may develop overnight Monday into Tuesday 4/3, but that will just be plain rain (nothing wintry). High in the low 50s.
Kinda rainy / showery on Wednesday 4/4 as well with a high in the mid 50s.
Clear and sunny and breezy, but chillier again, on Thursday 4/5. High only in the low to mid 40s.
Chilly and rainy on Friday 4/6 - high in the upper 40s.
The first full weekend in April looks (mostly) dry but still unseasonably chilly - highs in the mid to upper 40s.
If you insist: here is a video (just contains audio) of one of my favorite songs by The Minutemen.
Stay tuned for updates!
Forecast: Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Right before he jumps (into what he assumes is a shallow puddle, to win a $1 bet), he says, "I do it for the kids."Alright, so there's more.
Monday will be quiet: mostly sunny with a high in the mid 40s.
Tuesday will be similar, but we'll see increasing clouds throughout the morning. On-and-off rain showers will begin by 2-3pm.
Rain will become steadier by about 8pm. Expect rain to begin mixing with wet snow by 10pm, and this mix will continue overnight.
I think it becomes all snow by 3-5am. It'll snow til Wednesday evening - maybe 6-8pm.
Amounts and precipitation type are especially tricky this time of year, given the sun angle, surface temperatures, and all the moving meteorological parts in this storm.
On Monday, I'm going to give more nuanced forecasts (like, broken down by area/specific location). So please let me know via email if you'd like me to include your area in my next forecast.
But here is what I expect for Berks:
Accumulation, 4-6 inches.
I don't see widespread outages and downed limbs/power lines with this storm. Not a whole lot of crazy wind with this one.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65.44%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 41.66%
Stay tuned for updates!
Saturday, February 17th, 2018
When I said there was "nothing hinky coming," I suppose I spoke too soon.
Although we're in for a bit of snow on Saturday, it's not a major storm.
Here's what I think (as of Thursday 2/15, noonish):
It's going to get progressively cloudier throughout the day today, but really mild - high near 60. Expect rain after about 7 or 8pm, continuing overnight into Friday morning. Since the temperatures will stay in the mid 50s (even overnight), we're not at all concerned with freezing action with this.
On Friday we'll see the temperature drop throughout the day: 50s during the morning commute, 40s in the afternoon (with increasing winds), 30s in the evening (with diminishing winds), 20s overnight.
Happy 93rd birthday on February 17th to one of my favorite actors, Hal Holbrook. He is best-known for his critically acclaimed one-man stage show portraying Mark Twain - and, of course, his pivotal role as background informant "Deep Throat" in the film All the President's Men.Saturday starts out clear and sunny, but clouds up toward mid-afternoon as a fast-moving front approaches. Expect snow (wet, and maybe mixed with some rain at the start) by 4 or 5pm. The bulk of the snow should be from about 7pm Saturday to about 2am Sunday.
Accumulation: 2-3 inches of wet snow at most. Some slippery spots, but the relatively warm ground temperatures recently will help minimize this problem.
So the storm may impact your plans on Saturday evening and Sunday morning, but the bulk of the weekend remains viable for errands and outdoor merriment.
Sunday turns out sunny with a high in the mid 40s.
And then back up to the 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday! So any snowfall will be outta here quickly.
As this storm gets closer, its actual track/impacts/accumulation will become clearer, so stay tuned for updates!