Quick Weather Update from Monsoon - 1/31/08
Thursday 1/31: sunny throughout the day; increasing clouds this evening. Light freezing rain developing late (perhaps 11pm or so) and perhaps mixing with snow at times, continuing on and off overnight. Some periods of heavier precipitation are likely toward Friday morning. High 38, low 27.
Friday 2/1: Sleet and freezing rain in the morning have the potential to make roads slick for the morning commute; becoming all rain—heavy at times—by late morning and ending in the late afternoon or early evening. Clearing a bit late with high winds. High 40, low 31.
Probability of delay Friday: 65%. (Slick road surfaces and ice-coated limbs and power lines, particularly in rural or hilly areas, could make it a dicey commute.)
Probability of cancellation Friday: 25%.
This weekend: Partly cloudy, mild and pleasant; highs in the mid 40s, perhaps reaching 50 on Sunday; lows in the upper 20s.
Next week: We start the week with mild conditions; rain is possible (no frozen precipitation) on Monday and Tuesday. Beyond that, it cools off a bit, but no deep freeze—highs will be in the upper 30s and low 40s for the most part.
Beyond: Colder the following weekend (February 9th and 10th) with highs in the low 30s and lows in the teens, setting up our next really good chance for wintry weather.
Next good chance for snow: Monday 2/11 and Tuesday 2/12 or thereabouts.
Monsoon's Weather Update for Tuesday, 29 January 2008
Tuesday 1/29: Freezing rain in the morning and early afternoon, followed by a bit of rain in the late afternoon as temperatures rise; steadier rain beginning late evening and continuing overnight. Cloudy throughout the day. High 39, low 36.
Wednesday 1/30: Early AM showers, then eventual sunshine with very strong winds; becoming colder at night. High 43, low 21.
Thursday 1/31: Sunny and seasonably cold; becoming cloudy late with some snow and sleet. High 38, low 30.
Friday 2/1: Freezing rain to start, then clearing and quite windy. High 36, low 29.
[Stay tuned for updates, including school closing/delay predictions and precipitation amounts and types, on the Thursday-to-Friday system. Right now I’m going to say that Thursday evening’s commute and evening activities will be unaffected, but on Friday morning I’ll give it a 55% chance of delay and 15% chance of cancellation due to slick roadways. No appreciable frozen precipitation will result, and whatever is left over will melt over the weekend.]
The weekend: Nice and unseasonably mild with highs in the low 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Next week: More of the same; then colder toward the end of next week.
Beyond: The following weekend and the next week look cold, with highs struggling to reach freezing and lows in the teens much of the time. Next chances for snow seem to be February 8th and 11th, but given the duds we’ve been seeing this winter, don’t hold your breath…I am trying to accommodate those of you who have been pining (wishing in silence) and clamoring (wishing loudly, in my ear and email inbox) for a snow day!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Update for Friday, 25 January 2008
Forecast Update…
Friday 1/25: mostly sunny and breezy; clouding up late. High 32, low 16.
Saturday 1/26: partly cloudy; cloudier late with snow showers—trace or no accumulation. High 34, low 23.
Sunday 1/27: partly cloudy and not quite as frigid. High 40, low 26.
Monday 1/28: partly to mostly sunny and milder. High 45, low 29.
Tuesday 1/29: cloudy and quite windy. High 40, low 27.
Wednesday 1/30: partly sunny and windy; chills in the 20s during the day and teens at night. High 37, low 22.
Thursday 1/31: partly to mostly cloudy and rather windy. High 38, low 27.
Friday 2/1: cloudy and breezy; clearing late. High 34, low 17.
Next weekend: highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s; maybe some snow and/or sleet on Sunday into Monday.
Beyond: Warmer on Monday and Tuesday the 4th and 5th (highs in mid to upper 40s) as lots of moisture moves in, then a cold front sweeps through and sends us back into the 30s during the day and teens at night. The timing of the moisture and cold on Monday and Tuesday will be critical; if anything changes, we could be in for some frozen precipitation. As of now, though, I don’t see any snowstorms on the horizon. (For those of you who hate snow: you’re welcome. For those of you who crave snow: I don’t make the weather; I just report it.)
Have a great weekend!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Update for MLK Day 2008
Hey Friends,
Just wanted to give you a quick weather update, but before I do that, I wanted to give you the latest on my back situation, as many of you have been kind enough to inquire since I sent out the Open MRI piece. Despite the fact that my back has actually been giving me little to no pain over the past week or so, the MRI result is that I have a herniated disk in the lower lumbar region. I’m meeting with a specialist to discuss the MRI, who I suspect will prescribe some sort of exercises or physical therapy, maybe some narcotics, maybe a shot or something. Anything short of surgery, let’s hope…
Monday 1/21: sunny and very cold. High 24, low 15.
Tuesday 1/22: breezy and becoming overcast with flurries and snow showers developing toward late afternoon. I’m thinking a dusting here and there, with isolated spots getting as much as an inch. But the atmosphere is so dry here right now, I don’t see much resulting from this. Snow showers taper toward midnight. High 35, low 24.
Wednesday 1/23: sunny; becoming cloudy late with an evening flurry not out of the question as another arctic cold front moves in. High 32, low 15.
Thursday 1/24: partly cloudy and cold. High 26, low 11.
Friday 1/25: sunny and continued cold, but not quite as frigid. High 32, low 18.
The weekend: cold with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s. Snow showers are possible on Sunday, but I don’t think this is anything to worry about just now. Stay tuned for updates.
Next week: more of the same…highs in the mid 30s, lows in the low 20s.
Next chance for snow: I’m looking now toward the following weekend for a potentially major event. Friday 2/1, Saturday 2/2—keep an eye on that. I’ll keep you posted…
Your Weather-Servant,
Monsoon
Monsoon's Update on Weekend Snow Potential, Arctic Cold
Friends,
An update on the weekend snow potential, and beyond…
Look for temperatures to rise into the low 40s this afternoon, melting most of what laid yesterday, then plummet down toward 20 overnight.
Saturday will be colder with a high reaching only 36 as a strong cold front moves through in the afternoon. Look for snow flurries and showers in the afternoon and through the evening, perhaps extending overnight. But this area of precipitation now appears as though it will deal us only a glancing blow, so I’m not expecting more than a dusting to an inch in our area.
The call for Saturday, then: overcast with widely scattered snow showers; winds increase during the day. High 36, low 18. Evening and overnight wind chills will reach into the single digits, so bundle up!
Sunday will see clearing, persistently windy conditions, and extreme cold. High 21, low 9.
Cold again, partly cloudy and breezy on Monday with a high of 25 and a low of 15.
Next chances for snow are Tuesday throughout the day and evening; this has the potential to drop a few inches in our area, so stay tuned on that one. Thursday the 24th is looking rather like Saturday with light snow and scattered snow showers. On Tuesday the 29th, there’s a major system that could drop some serious-assed snow in our area. I know that will be music to many of your earholes!
Have a great extended weekend…
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Alert for Thursday, 17 January 2008
Friends,
There have been some alarming forecasts that as much as four inches of snow could accumulate in our area today into tomorrow. I have reexamined the latest meteorological indicators and here’s what I think it going to happen:
Look for flurries and light snow beginning late morning and continuing through the late afternoon, accumulating a coating to an inch and a half at most (more in northern Berks and the Lehigh Valley, where the changeover will take longer; less in Lancaster County, where the changeover will happen more rapidly).
As our region is gradually infused with warm air aloft, we’ll see precipitation mix with sleet at first; expect a snow-sleet mixture as precipitation gets steadier, anytime from 3pm to 9pm. Freezing rain is also likely late in this period.
Toward midnight we should start to see rain mixing in with the sleet, then precipitation should change over to all rain after midnight—washing away what little accumulation may have lain.
Rain will taper and end by the middle of Friday morning at the latest, and then we may even see some sunshine in the afternoon.
Driving conditions should be fine this afternoon, but use caution because even the merest coating on the roadway can cause periodic slippage.
The period from roughly 4pm to 10pm—when the temperature aloft is rising, but the surface temperatures are still pretty cold—is the period I’m most concerned about. Sleet and freezing rain can cause problems with icing on roads, especially less-traveled ones. Use the most caution during this period.
The Friday morning commute should be just fine, but be aware of slick spots that may appear, as temperatures will still be hovering just above freezing as we make our way giddily to our places of employment.
Highs and lows: Thursday 36/30; Friday 44/21; Saturday 36/15 with scattered snow showers possible; Sunday 22/9.
Cancellations: Early dismissal Thursday 35%; delay Friday 25%; cancellation Friday 10%.
Drive safely!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Quick Weather Update for Thursday, 16 January 2008
My friends…
Just a quick update about tomorrow’s winter weather(ish) event and beyond…
[A note to my readers outside the immediate Dutch Country region: My forecast area is roughly the central and southern Berks County and northern Lancaster County region, with periodic comments on an expanded area including Philadelphia, the Lehigh Valley, and other parts of central Pennsylvania.]
Wednesday 1/16: sunny and clear after some AM flurries; light and variable winds. High 41, low 27.
Thursday 1/17: overcast with a chance of flurries or brief snow showers (with rain mixed) in the late morning and afternoon. Snow mixing with rain in the evening, changing to all snow overnight and accumulating perhaps an inch to an inch and a third. High 38, low 32.
Friday 1/18: brief morning snow showers turning to rain as temperatures warm up slightly and ending gradually by late morning. Temperatures will then plummet in the evening as the “arctic freeze” sets in; we won’t get above freezing again until the middle of next week. High 44, low 23.
Probability of delay Thursday: 10%
Probability of cancellation Thursday: 5%
Probability of early dismissal Thursday: 20%
Probability of delay Friday: 25%
Probability of cancellation Friday: 10%
Probability of raining frogs: 5%
Saturday 1/19: partly cloudy with a flurry or brief snow shower or two throughout the day. High 31, low 15.
Sunday 1/20: partly sunny, brisk, and very, very cold. High 22, low 11.
Monday 1/21: partly to mostly sunny and continued cold. High 28, low 19.
Tuesday 1/22: partly cloudy. High 29, low 15.
Wednesday 1/23: partly cloudy and a bit less frigid. High 34, low 23.
Thursday 1/24: partly sunny; then becoming overcast with snow developing in the evening and continuing overnight. This has the potential to be a measurable event, so stay tuned for updates. High 32, low 18.
Friday 1/25: tapering to flurries early, then partly cloudy and less frigid. High 37, low 23.
Next weekend: partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the low 40s and lows in the 20s.
Beyond: some sleet and/or snow for Monday the 28th and/or Tuesday the 29th. Otherwise rather cold with highs around freezing and lows dipping into the teens…
Monsoon
Monsoon's Winter Weather Update - Sunday 1/13 to Monday 1/14 event
My friends…
The forecast models are in wild disagreement about the Sunday night into Monday winter weather event; one suggests a foot of snow will fall, while most others are in the range of a dusting to a few inches’ accumulation. I’m going to lean toward the conservative side for the first time in my life and say that it’s not going to amount to much of concern for our area. The breakdown…
Sunday 1/13: cloudy with rain showers developing toward evening, changing to wet snow before midnight. Wet snow will continue on and off overnight, with up to two inches of accumulation likely by the morning commute. High 46, low 29.
Monday 1/14: snow tapers to snow showers and flurries, perhaps mixing with a bit of rain toward afternoon. High 36, low 27.
Accumulations:
Extreme northern Berks, Allentown, Poconos: 4-5 inches
Bucks County, northeast Philly: 6-8 inches
Northern New Jersey and into New England: up to a foot or more
Most of Philly, Chester, Delaware Counties: slushy coating to an inch; majority rain
Central and southern Berks, northern Lancaster, Lebanon Counties: 1 to 2 inches
Dauphin County, Harrisburg, southern Lancaster County: slushy coating to an inch; mixed bag
School closing predictions:
Forecast area (in bold above): 10% cancellation; 35% delay on Monday
Tuesday 1/15: partly cloudy with increasing clouds late; flurries or a brief snow shower possible.
Rest of the week and looking ahead: pretty quiet with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, then the deep freeze sets in (temperatures below freezing for a week or more, perhaps) for the weekend and beyond. I’m looking at January 23rd through 25th as a potentially active period in terms of snowfall.
Take care…
Monsoon