Monsoon Martin's Imminent Winter Storm Update for Thursday, 21 February 2008
Weather Friends,
I’m sticking to my original forecast in general, but have been able to fine-tune some details about the storm…
Over all, I think the snow will be light to moderate, keeping accumulation totals down, but much will depend on temperatures at the surface and aloft, which is a matter that is still quite (pun intended) up in the air.
Driving hazards: To evaluate expected driving conditions, I have devised a road condition scale similar to the Defcon (Defense Condition) scale:
Roadcon 1: smooth sailing with no weather-related impediments to travel
Roadcon 2: wet roadways with the possibility of hydroplaning, but no icy spots; use some caution but not necessary to avoid travel
Roadcon 3: light snow pack or visibility problems impair driving moderately; use a great deal of caution when driving, especially on untreated or back roads
Roadcon 4: moderate to heavy snow and/or ice make driving hazardous; expect travel difficulties on untreated or back roads, and limit travel as much as possible
Roadcon 5: heavy snow or icing and/or very low visibility make driving nearly impossible or extremely hazardous; stay inside!
Accumulations: 2 to 4 inches of snow and ice accumulation generally in central and southern Berks and northern Lancaster Counties, with isolated spots reaching 5 or 6 inches.
School closing: Delay Friday 15% (it wouldn’t make a lick of sense); cancellation Friday 85%. I think it’s the timing of the snowfall, rather than an overwhelming amount or horrible driving conditions, that will lead most area districts to call the day.
The details…
Thursday overnight (10pm to 6am) – increasingly cloudiness with light snow developing by 4 or 5am. Temperatures in the mid 20s. Roadcon 1-2.
Friday morning (6am to noon) – steady snow. Temperatures in the mid 20s. Roadcon 3.
Friday afternoon (noon to 6pm) – snow falls fairly steadily throughout this period, with perhaps some breaks and mixing sleet toward late afternoon. Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Roadcon 3-4.
Friday evening (6pm to 10pm) – intermittent snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain; temperatures around freezing. Roadcon 3.
Friday overnight (10pm to 6am) – snow showers and flurries off and on; temperatures dipping into the upper 20s. Roadcon 3.
Saturday morning (6am to noon) – a slight chance of lingering snow showers and flurries; temperatures rising from the upper 20s to the low 30s. Roadcon 2-3.
Saturday afternoon (noon to 6pm) – still overcast with temperatures rising only to the mid 30s. Roadcon 1-2.
Have a great weekend, and be safe!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Winter Weather Update for Wednesday, 20 February 2008
Today’s Clipper: Some areas saw a flurry or two this morning, but it’s not going to begin snowing until noon or 1pm. Expect intermittent light snow showers with some brief periods of steadier snow as this fast-moving system passes just to our south, continuing until about 4 or 5pm and tapering to flurries throughout the evening. As far as travel goes, I think heavily-traveled roads will be just fine, while side and untreated streets may have some slippery spots. High 33, low 19.
Accumulation: My call is a dusting (thinner than a coating) to an inch in isolated areas.
Chance of early dismissal from school today: 15%.
Thursday 2/21: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy and seasonably cold. High 31, low 20.
Friday’s storm: Timing will be crucial for this event, and the storm hasn’t even formed yet, but model guidance is pretty strong for this one. Still, my forecast below should be regarded as tentative; I will finalize the forecast and send out an update with any changes tomorrow (Thursday).
Snow begins sometime between 4 and 8am, falling steadily throughout the morning and early afternoon. Sleet and freezing rain will mix in from late afternoon to evening, turning back to snow as precipitation tapers late Friday and overnight into Saturday. Travel will be potentially hazardous anytime from Friday morning to late Friday night.
Accumulation: 3 to 5 inches of snow (mostly) and sleet in our region.
Chance of two-hour delay on Friday: 20%.
Chance of school cancellation on Friday: 75%.
The weekend: After possible flurries or brief snow showers Saturday morning, expect clearing and a bit milder conditions, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the mid 20s.
Drive safely!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Update for Tuesday, 19 February 2008
A note for those of you who may not be familiar with my little forecasts here: I am an amateur meteorologist (fumbling and self-taught, but nonetheless supremely confident); as I continue to learn more and more about meteorology, I am slowly becoming a nearly mediocre forecaster. My forecast area is central and southern Berks and northern Lancaster Counties (where I and many of my peoples live and work), sometimes addressing weather in surrounding areas such as central Pennsylvania, the Lehigh Valley, and Greater Philadelphia. Enjoy!
Tuesday 2/19: Quite windy and much colder; clear throughout the day with increasing cloudiness late. High 37, low 22.
Wednesday 2/20: Cloudy and cold with light snow showers developing by late morning, becoming more frequent and steady throughout the afternoon and evening. Perhaps an inch of snow will accumulate before ending by 9 or 10pm. High 34, low 19.
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday: 20%
Thursday 2/21: Sunny to partly cloudy, windy and cold with snow mixed with sleet possible in the evening. High 31, low 22.
Friday 2/22: Mostly cloudy and cold; some snow is possible Friday, but track and amount are still unclear. Stay tuned for updates (I’m going to hold off on more detailed predictions or delay/cancellation percentages for now). High 34, low 25.
Saturday 2/23: Cloudy with snow showers or flurries possible; clearing in the afternoon. High 37, low 28.
Sunday 2/24: Partly cloudy and a bit milder. High 44, low 29.
Next week: Highs generally in the low to mid 40s; lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. No real chance for winter weather that I see.
Next weekend: Cloudy and rainy with highs in the upper 40s.
Beyond: Colder the following week with perhaps our last good chance for accumulating snow around March 5th or 6th.
Have a great week!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Quick Weather Update for 15 February 2008
Today will be mostly sunny, breezy and milder early; temperatures will fall dramatically later on tonight. High 46, low 23.
Saturday will feature plenty of sunshine and very cold temperatures. High 30, low 18.
Sunday brings our next chance for precipitation, but I think it’s going to warm up enough that it will be all (or very nearly all) rain. Becoming cloudy and rather windy as the rain begins sometime around Sunday evening. High 40, low 34.
Rain will continue into Monday morning; skies will clear and milder temperatures will prevail. High 47, low 30.
Tuesday is looking cooler again with partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. High 36, low 21.
Look for clear, breezy and rather cold conditions on Wednesday. High 35, low 22.
Thursday will still be cold, but temperatures will begin to rise overnight. High 34, low 27.
Friday through Sunday is a potentially turbulent period in terms of winter weather with two systems poised to deliver precipitation on Friday evening 2/22, Saturday evening 2/23, and throughout the day Sunday 2/24—though there are indications that conditions will be milder by the end of the weekend, making much of this rain. Stay tuned for updates.
As we reach the last few days of February, I think we’re looking at the last real cold snap of the season, along with a real chance for snowfall. I’ve got my eye on Tuesday the 26th and Friday the 29th in terms of wintry precipitation, with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens or 20s.
Have a great holiday weekend!
Monsoon
Monsoon's In-Storm Update - Wednesday 13 February 2008
Hey friends,
Most of us had school delayed this morning, then cancelled--I suspect due to the icy sidewalks and back roads, power outages, and perhaps even the imminent flooding. Let me give you an idea of what to expect in the next few days...
On Wednesday, rain will continue, heavy at times, into the mid afternoon, when it will begin to taper. There's the outside chance of some flurries or brief snow showers as the storm moves away, particularly tonight, but these will not result in any additional accumulation. Winds will kick up too, particularly overnight. The problems many of us are dealing with include:
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sidewalks and driveways that are like skating rinks, and are difficult to clear. Because temperatures have hovered around freezing or just above for many hours now, much of the precipitation that's fallen has been freezing rain. Many places have an inch or more of ice on top of the snow that had fallen earlier.
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ice has coated power lines (and branches, bringing them down on power lines) and resulted in widespread power outages, which will only increase, I hate to say, with the strong winds forecast for tonight.
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many streets are closed due to flooding due to the volume of rainfall we're getting, coupled with the fact that our slushly ice/snow accumulation is blocking typical drainage paths. Some roads, especially those in higher elevations or seldom-traveled ones, are coated with a treacherous slurry of ice and slush.
And finally, my good people, much of this mucky mess will likely freeze overnight, posing problems for the morning commute. This is a nasty ice storm--ironic, perhaps, given that most of us are seeing what looks to be plain rain outside. [I've covered this before, I think, but freezing rain is simply "regular" rain that freezes on surfaces; sleet consists of already-frozen pellets falling from the sky and is somewhat less common.]
High today 36, low 22.
Predictions for school scheduling on Thursday, February 14th: delay 65%; cancellation 25%.
On Thursday we'll see mainly sunny conditions and moderate winds with a high of 38 and a low of 24.
Friday brings the chance for more wintry precipitation, but I think this is going to amount to little of concern. Afternoon rain showers are possible, then a steadier rain late may mix with snow; this clears out overnight. High 46, low 27.
Saturday is sunny and colder with a high of 35 and a low of 19.
And on Sunday look for snow developing late and continuing into Monday. I'm thinking this is a nuisance snowfall right now (an inch or two at most) and certainly won't include icing of the sort we're dealing with now. I'll update you all if anything seems to have changed on this event. Highs Sunday and Monday in the mid 30s, lows in the low 20s.
Happy Snow Day!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Winter Storm Update - Monday evening 2-11-08
Hey friends...
The storm has come into clearer focus and accelerated a bit, so I thought I'd share an update...
Tonight: clear and cold with a low of 10.
Tuesday 2/12: Clouding up throughout the morning with some flurries possible by late morning. Snowfall will not begin in earnest until at least 2 or 3pm, though. Snow will become steadier at times throughout the evening, mixing with sleet and changing to freezing rain sometime overnight. (Some models have the rain changeover sooner, but given the extremely low surface temps and weak low, I'm not buying it. I think the frozen precipitation predominates in this storm.) High 28, low 24.
Wednesday 2/13: The freezing rain and sleet should change over to plain rain by mid morning, but accumulations of snow and sleet--and ice-coated power lines, branches, and roads--will still hamper travel. Some mixed precipitation may sneak in as the precipitation tapers off in the afternoon. High 38, low 21.
Accumulations: I'm sticking with 2-3 inches of snow and ice, perhaps a bit less in southern Berks and northern Lancaster Counties, making travel extremely dangerous and ill-advised on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.
School schedule: Chance of early dismissal Tuesday 20%; chance of delay Wednesday 85%; chance of cancellation Wednesday 40%.
As always, I remind you humbly that I am but an amateur meteorologist, and implore you to be gentle in judging my errors...
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin’s Deep Freeze Weather Update for Monday, 11 February 2008
After a deep freeze this morning—it got down to 5 degrees this morning at my home—five!—we’re looking at a warm-up (at least to less arctic temperatures) by mid-week. I’ve also got my eye on a system that could bring us a delay or cancellation on Wednesday and a few more interesting longer-term issues.
Monday 2/11: Sunny and extremely cold. High 22, low 14.
Tuesday 2/12: Cloudy with light snow showers or flurries developing by the late afternoon; steadier snowfall is likely in the evening, so limit your travel. As warmer air mixes in aloft, look for sleet to mix in with the snow by around midnight, then gradually change over to freezing rain thereafter. High 31, low 28.
Wednesday 2/13: Freezing rain will continue through mid-morning, after which periods of regular old rain will fall. Precipitation will taper throughout the afternoon. High 37, low 21.
Forecast models: There is significant disagreement in terms of storm track and timing among the various forecast models, but I’m favoring a slower-moving system with significant precipitation, much of which will be wintry.
Accumulations: I’m thinking 2 to 3 inches of accumulated snow and ice here, with locally higher amounts in northern Berks and lower in Lancaster and Chester Counties. Heaviest accumulations will be in northeast Pennsylvania and north Jersey. As noted above, much will depend on the timing and exact track of this storm; as such, I will be updating the situation tomorrow.
Driving hazards: The commute home from school or work on Tuesday will be affected very little, but again, use extreme caution if you need to be out and about Tuesday evening. The worst time for driving will be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and Wednesday morning’s commute. Rain thereafter will wash everything away and improve conditions dramatically.
School scheduling changes: PSSA testing is this week, which means that administrators are going to be loath to wreck their best-laid plans for a few slippery roads. That said, my predictions for now are
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 10%
Chance of delay Wednesday: 70%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 35%
Thursday 2/14: Partly cloudy and milder. High 41, low 26.
Friday 2/15: Mostly cloudy and rather breezy. High 44, low 27.
Next weekend: A bit cooler with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s; snow is possible on Sunday the 17th.
The following week: More of the same—highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens and low 20s. Look for a possible winter weather event on Wednesday the 20th. Things warm up a bit toward the end of next week.
Beyond: Trending milder, but this is the season for Nor’easters and surprise storms. Last year we received our most significant snowfall on February 15th and March 15th. Stay tuned…
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Update for Wednesday, 6 February 2008
Wednesday 2/6: Scattered showers this morning, followed by steady rain—potentially heavy at times with gusty winds—this afternoon and evening. A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out in the late afternoon or evening as a strong front moves through. Tapering to drizzle late, but clouds will persist overnight. High 62, low 44 (perhaps approaching the record of 65 in Reading).
Thursday 2/7: Somewhat colder; partly cloudy with rather breezy conditions. High 44, low 30.
Friday 2/8: Partly sunny and cold, but still mild for the season. High 43, low 28.
Saturday 2/9: Overcast and somewhat windy with rain or drizzle early, followed by snow showers at night. Right now it doesn’t look like significant accumulations will result from this system. High 41, low 24.
Sunday 2/10: Windy, partly cloudy and much colder with some flurries or brief snow showers possible. High 27, low 14.
Monday 2/11: partly sunny and a bit breezy. High 29, low 17.
Tuesday 2/12: Cloudy and a bit milder with snow showers possible. High 38, low 26.
The rest of next week (2/13 through 2/15): Highs in the lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s for the most part; snow or a mixed event is possible on Friday the 15th.
Next weekend (2/16 and 2/17): Colder with highs at or just below freezing and lows in the teens.
Beyond: I’m keeping an eye on a system that could affect our area with significant snowfall on Monday 2/18 to Tuesday 2/19.
Monsoon