Monsoon's Storm Recap and Look-Ahead
What a curious, maddening snowstorm: some areas got scarcely any accumulation, and others (in the places I figured would get hardest-hit) got more than two feet of snow.
I have to acknowledge some problems with my forecast, though: accumulating snow did not develop here until later Thursday night, whereas I thought it would begin accumulating and causing travel problems by early Thursday afternoon; and snow totals in most of the forecast area just didn’t reach even the adjusted 6-8 inch forecast.
Why did the storm fail to live up to my forecast? A few reasons…
- My forecast was flawed. I got all excited about the prospect of more heavy snowfall that I missed some indicators suggesting this might be lighter for us.
- The angle of the sun this time of year—combined with the lightness of precipitation for much of this long event—meant the snow just couldn’t accumulate on roadways for the most part.
- The low stalled farther north than I originally thought it might, so only the outermost bands of precipitation reached the Berks-Lancaster area. At times, some of these bands looked impressively heavy, but they frequently fell apart before they could do much damage here.
- The forecast models overplayed the ridge that would forestall the system and extend the heaviest snow into the area; again, I should have recognized this.
Snowfall totals at this point (around 6pm Friday evening) are about as widely varied as one finds from a single storm—a storm that, incidentally, continues to spiral its way northeastward, its outer bands of precipitation disintegrating throughout the area. Here are some samples:
Northern New Jersey, 18-26”
Northeastern Pennsylvania, up to 24” (and more in the Poconos)
Allentown and Bethlehem, 14-16”
Bucks County, more than 12” in some locations
Exton, 11”
King of Prussia, 8”
Southern Berks and most of Lancaster County saw 3-5” generally
[Your snow totals and anecdotal reports would be helpful in sorting out just who got what in the area.]
The winds lived up to their billing, howling through the night and morning and caused all sorts of problems; Mifflin had its second straight snow day, according to our Superintendent’s message, due to multiple road closures in the district. Lots of roads were (and some remain) closed due to drifting, especially in northern Berks County.
Winds will continue to die down, but watch for continued drifting, especially tonight.
Here’s what to expect in the coming days:
A few snow showers may linger into Saturday, but expect no additional accumulation.
There are two upcoming storms I have my eye on right now—the second of which having the best chance to affect our area.
First, a coastal storm will head up this way from Florida and potentially be drawn into the existing low, now heading for New England. Very likely this system will affect only New England (and not anything south of New York City), but it bears watching.
Then, a storm that’s now hammering California appears headed for the mid-Atlantic toward the middle of next week (March 3rd or 4th), but a lot remains to be seen regarding this system, including exact track and precipitation type (due to surface temperatures).
Then, I think, finally, mercifully, we’ll be finished with winter storms. By late next week, highs will be in the 40s; snow cover will continue melting and the ground will warm up. This all makes it more likely that any precipitation would be rain, or would melt on contact if frozen.
But given this screwy, snowy, once-in-a-lifetime winter, I’m not going to let my guard down (or put the shovels and scrapers away) until we start seeing 50- and 60-degree days!
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's In-Storm Update for 25 February 2010
Well.
Quite obviously, those of us who teach in Berks County had a snow day with no real accumulating snow. Flurries and light snow melted upon contact with paved surfaces, making them merely wet. This scenario was mainly due to the fact that this unusual storm did not hug the coast as tightly as many believed it would.
Here’s what to expect over the next 48 hours or so.
Winds will intensify this evening and tonight, and snow will become steadier and drier, accumulating rapidly on roadways and causing conditions to deteriorate. The result will be accumulation of 3-5 inches and some drifting over the forecast area by Friday morning. Temperatures tonight will dip into the mid-20s, and wind chills will be in the low single digits.
As I noted previously, watch for drifting, downed trees, power outages, and the like due to the wind.
Friday morning will still be quite snowy at times, and very windy. Both the snow and wind will begin to taper off by late afternoon Friday, though accumulating snow can linger into very early Saturday morning. Expect highs on Friday only a couple of degrees above freezing with winds chills in the teens and 20s.
We may even see a few snow showers on Saturday night and Sunday from this sprawling system.
Total accumulations for the forecast area from now through Saturday morning will be in the range of 6-8 inches generally. Locally higher amounts are still possible.
School scheduling potentials…
Friday delay 80%
Friday cancellation 75%
Monsoon's Snowstorm Update for 24 February 2010
My call on the storm is basically the same as what I put forth last night. Here’s my latest thinking, based on the most updated information…
I believe the heaviest snow will fall in eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania (Allentown, the Poconos, and Scranton), north Jersey, interior New York, and western Connecticut. Look for totals of 16 inches to two feet in these areas.
But we in the forecast area of Berks and northern Lancaster Counties will not be spared here. I’m going to stick with 8-12 inches, with the possibility of more in some places, depending on snow banding and storm track. We’ll still have howling winds; look for winds ramping up to 20-30mph tomorrow and gusts of 40-50mph.
Timing: snow begins sometime after midnight, and certainly (and crucially, for the sake of school scheduling changes) by the morning commute. We may see a bit of a slowdown (maybe even a break) on Thursday evening before a second wave of precipitation late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Bust potential (or the possibility that we could get little or nothing out of this system): moderate. There are definitely other scenarios that could play out here, but to discuss them in depth would amount to hedging. Not gonna do it.
When to minimize travel: all day Thursday, particularly in the evening when visibility is low; and Friday morning.
School scheduling potentials:
Thursday delay, 10% (it just doesn’t make sense)
Thursday cancellation, 80% (but I think it’ll be a morning cancellation—we won’t be so lucky as to get the call tonight)
Thursday early dismissal (if we’re here in the first place), 95%
Friday delay, 85% (it’s still going to be snowing Friday morning)
Friday cancellation, 60% (this storm might really produce a mess; another day of clean-up would really be prudent)
Lastly, I’d like to thank all of you for visiting the weblog and sharing it far and wide. You’ve made February my biggest month ever (by far) with several days still to go in the month, with more than 3,000 views and more than 1,200 unique users (or separate individuals visiting the site). Again, thanks!
Stay tuned for in-storm updates if anything changes…
Monsoon's End-of-the-Week Snowstorm Forecast: go get your bread and milk!
Tonight there is the chance of some leftover light snow showers as the system that gave us sleet last night and rain today moves away. I don’t see any accumulation or travel hazards for Berks or Lancaster.
The next storm is a coastal low that looks good to develop into a full-fledged Nor’easter. Light snow moves in late Wednesday night (i.e., after midnight) and intensifies by mid-morning Thursday, continuing into Thursday evening. Snow continues intermittently (and of varying intensity) through Friday morning. This will be a snow event; I do not believe the forecast area will see any mixing.
Complicating matters (and making conditions more dangerous) will be strong winds—potentially the most violent of the season. Look for sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts well over 40mph, getting cranked up throughout the day on Thursday and continuing through Friday. Combined with a heavy, wet snowfall, we could see widespread drifting, downed power lines, and fallen tree limbs.
Forecasting amounts with this one is especially tricky, and models have been in quite a bit of disagreement about just what kind of track this goofy storm will take. (I call it goofy because it’s going to come up the east coast, head northeast out to sea where it’ll pick up all kinds of additional moisture, and then—because of strong Atlantic oscillation—make a west-southwesterly turn, running smack pow into us.)
I reserve the right to alter my predictions tomorrow and new data comes in, but for now I’m going to call 8-12 inches for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties. This could be a big, nasty storm that gets into the foot-plus territory we saw back at the beginning of the month, but I’m not ready to say that for sure yet. This is also the sort of storm that will have heavy “bands” of precipitation in some areas, but lesser amounts in others; for example, Shillington could get 14 inches while Robesonia only gets 6 inches and Morgantown gets two feet.
Potentials for school scheduling snafus…
Thursday delay, 20%
Thursday cancellation, 75%
Thursday early dismissal (if we have school), 90%
Friday delay, 85%
Friday cancellation, 60%
Stay tuned for updated information, including snow totals and school scheduling potentials!
Winter Weather Update: overnight, late-week, and beyond...
I suspected this was going to be a crazy week in terms of winter weather, and tonight's extended period of sleet mixed with snow is confirming that suspicion. I think we'll see a changeover to rain at some point overnight, but road conditions Tuesday morning may be somewhat slick. Watch for a few snow showers late Tuesday afternoon or evening, maybe giving us a coating of snow accumulation.
Tuesday delay, 65%
Tuesday cancellation, 35%
The next system is really interesting and quite unusual, for reasons I won't bore you with here. Some model solutions are pumping this up into a significant storm. Right now I'm going to go with 6-8 inches of snow accumulation for the forecast area, beginning late Wednesday night and wrapping up overnight Thursday into Friday. High winds on Thursday complicate matters. We could get a snow day out of this on Thursday, but let's don't get our short-hairs caught in a whipsaw just yet - a lot remains to be seen about how this storm develops, and updates will follow.
[The "short-hairs" phrase I used above is utterly meaningless and is not a real idiomatic expression - but it does sound like a folksy gem, doesn't it?]
Beyond all that mess, I've got my eye on the following upcoming winter weather events:
Snow showers on Saturday 2/27, producing no appreciable accumulation.
Passing snow showers on Tuesday 3/2, perhaps blossoming into a nuisance accumulation of an inch or two.
A more significant storm around Sunday 3/7 into Monday 3/8 with potential accumulations approaching a foot - but it's waaaaaay too early to set our horny toads hollerin' up Jasper Creek just yet.
[Another made-up idiom, as if I had to tell you that.]
Stay tuned!
Monsoon's Forecast Update for the Monday-Tuesday event and beyond...
The Monday-Tuesday event has come into sharper focus, so I thought I’d provide an update on that system as well as my thinking on the other winter weather that could affect our region over the next 10 days or so.
Snow and rain arrive by around noon Monday but will change over to all rain (intermittent showers) by Monday afternoon and into the evening. Rain is likely overnight into Tuesday morning, and if snow and ice mix in toward the morning commute, roads could get dicey. (I think plain old rain will predominate and roads will be fine.) There will likely be some rain showers lingering throughout the day on Tuesday, and even on Tuesday night we could see a bit of freezing rain and drizzle.
Adjusted school scheduling projections:
Monday delay, 10%
Monday cancellation, 20%
Monday early dismissal, 35%
Tuesday delay, 40%
Tuesday cancellation, 25%
Wednesday delay, 30%
Wednesday cancellation, 15%
Wednesday 2/24 brings a second event, when we could see snow developing by 8 or 9pm and continuing off and on into Thursday. This snowfall looks as though it will linger into Thursday night and potentially bring us several inches of accumulation. I will monitor this situation closely and provide updates (and cancellation/delay potentials) closer to the event.
There is the potential for passing snow showers and flurries anytime from Friday 2/26 through Sunday 2/28, but these will not be a factor in terms of accumulation or driving hazards.
Beyond that, it’s looking as though the heavy precipitation during the first week of March may coincide with milder temperatures, so the March 3rd-4th event may be all or mostly rain. Thereafter, temperatures plummet again and the pattern sets up for another possible storm.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon’s forecast for the Monday-Tuesday event, including discussion of the March 7th snow-fantasy
While we’re in this mid-February lull in terms of winter precipitation, I thought I’d offer my take on the next few potential winter weather events…
The period from Friday the 19th through Sunday the 21st looks partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 and a low in the lower 20s.
The Monday the 22nd to Tuesday the 23rd event is a difficult call because of conflicting information thus far regarding storm track and surface temperatures. My sense right now is that we’ll have intermittent snow beginning late Monday morning, mixing with sleet and rain in the afternoon, then intensifying overnight and ending Tuesday morning. Accumulations in the forecast area (central and southern Berks, northern Lancaster) should be light—in the 1-3 inch range. Temperatures stay in the low to mid 30s during the storm. Driving could get a bit dicey, particularly if there is a prolonged period of mixed precipitation.
Cancellation/delay projections:
Monday cancellation, 25%
Monday early dismissal, 55%
Monday delay, 10%
Tuesday delay, 65%
Tuesday cancellation, 15%
As this system comes into sharper focus this weekend, I will send out an update (including revised storm total projections as well as school cancellation and delay potentials).
Thursday the 25th brings the chance for some more snow – this time a bit more than what seems to be in store early in the week. Snow could last much of the day, cancelling schools and accumulating as much as 6-8 inches. Updates to follow.
From March 3rd to the 5th we’re looking at another event, this one a sprawling affair that could involve mixed precipitation and significant accumulation.
The most dominant rumor about upcoming snow has grown out of Reading-area almanac writer Lester Moyer’s notoriety due to a Reading Eagle article about his apparently successful prediction of the two early-February blizzards. The story goes that on March 7th, up to 40 inches of snow will fall; this amount will be compounded by widespread drifting and blowing snow. In Lester’s words, this is going to be “the granddaddy of ‘em all.”
Now, I don’t want to knock this eccentric, prodigiously-bearded local character. And I don’t want to ridicule his forecasting methods, which include studying the phases of the moon and relying heavily on his “gut.” After all, many folks rely on far more esoteric phenomena and deeply-held superstitions to guide their lives—and I’ll admit to the employment of instinct in creating my own forecasts.
But lunar phases and intuition alone cannot predict the weather—and in any case, while almanacs have shown a tolerable ability to see climatological trends, they’ve had a notoriously spotty record at pinpointing actual precipitation events.
It is true that Mr. Moyer did predict two early-February storms in his almanac. But it is also true that he predicted lower-than-normal snowfall for winter 2009-2010—a total of 18 to 20 inches of mostly nuisance snows.
Let me specifically address the 40-inch prediction. Given that snow ratios in March are typically 10:1 (10 inches of snow for every inch of rain, roughly), we’d need four inches of moisture to produce 40 inches of snow. That’s some biblical end-times type scheisse right there. It’s not likely to happen, in other words.
So far, I don’t see this monstrous storm in our future—though, as noted above, the first week of March is setting up favorably for wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's Presidents Day Storm Update - Slight Downgrade
I think we’re looking at 3 to 5 inches at most (rather than the 4 to 6 in my previous forecast) for the area. Only about 2 to 3 inches for places south of the PA Turnpike, generally.
Timing is still the same (begins tonight around or just after rush hour; heaviest overnight; a bit of lingering light snow or flurries through late Tuesday morning).
As far as cancellation/delay percentages, there’s a bit of a downgrade there, but they’ll generally hold pretty steady:
Monday early dismissal, 15%
Tuesday delay, 60%
Tuesday cancellation, 35%
Still nothing terribly interesting on the horizon in terms of winter weather--and that's a good thing!
Stay tuned…