Monsoon's Forecast for the Monday-Tuesday Snow / Ice Event
Let's get right to it:
Monday will be very cold, with highs only in the mid 20s.
Flurries and light snow develop Monday night, perhaps by 7 or 8pm, but the bulk of the snow will fall during the overnight hours and perhaps even into the Tuesday morning commute. Look for an inch or two of accumulation before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain - perhaps as early as 5 or 6am, but definitely by 7 or 8am.
[Freezing rain is just regular old rain that freezes to surfaces. Sleet falls as frozen ice pellets; I think we'll have little to no sleet here...just snow to freezing rain.]
Freezing rain continues to the early afternoon hours, when the surface temperatures finally creep above the freezing mark. The extended period of freezing rain will likely lead to widespread icing of telephone lines, tree limbs, and sidewalks. It will also make for potentially treacherous driving on Tuesday.
In the full range of wintry precipitation, an ice storm is really much more dangerous than heavy snowfall. With that in mind...
Chance of at least a delay on Tuesday: 85%
Chance of a cancellation on Tuesday: 75%
I will post an update tomorrow night (Monday 1/17) if my thinking changes on any of this.
Further heads-up: I'm looking at a small event for Friday 1/21 and a potentially more significant event for Sunday 1/23 into Monday 1/24...
Tuesday morning update on the Tuesday / Wednesday storm
I'm keeping nearly everything in place from my previous blog entry of last night, but need to make an adjustment in the timing...
It now appears that light snow will begin to reach the ground by 5 or 6pm - perhaps even a touch earlier in some areas - but the steadier, more intense and accumulating snow will still hold off until 10pm or later. I'd say you should be OK to drive in these periods of light snow, but remember to use caution given the havoc barely more than a coating of snow caused on Friday and Saturday mornings.
School closing / delay percentages are the same: 10% Tuesday early dismissal; 95% Wednesday delay (at least); 70% Wednesday closing.
Stay tuned for updates as the situation warrants...
Monday evening update on the Tuesday / Wednesday storm
My good people,
A few "tweaks" here, based on the latest model and radar information...
The snow doesn't start to reach the ground around here until later Tuesday - probably 6 or 7pm as light snow, intensifying by 10 or 11pm.
Snow tapers by 9 or 10am Wednesday with light snow showers possible into the mid-afternoon.
School Percentages:
Tuesday early dismissal, 10%
Wednesday delay, 95% (chance of at least a delay)
Wednesday cancellation, 70%
Travel:
You should be OK for travel throughout the Tuesday evening commute. Most treacherous time for driving is when the storm begins to intensify (overnight) and on Wednesday morning before the roads are treated / cleared.
Storm totals:
I'm sticking to my earlier amounts, with the additional comment that NYC and parts of New England will likely see a foot or more out of this storm, which will intensify after it passes our area...
Monsoon's Forecast for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm
First, my good people, it is cold out there. “Cold” call I it, for, to define true coldness, what is ‘t but to be nothing else but cold? That it’s cold, ‘tis true; ‘tis cold, ‘tis pity, and pity ‘tis ‘tis true.
Brr.
As for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm, my plan is this: to offer a forecast now (roughly 36 hours prior to the event) and to send out an update Tuesday morning (12 hours prior) fine-tuning my forecast. I may even send out an update later today if the situation warrants it…
Driving through the county on Saturday morning and sliding on surfaces both treated and untreated, secondary and primary—I was reminded how just a wee bit of snow can wreak travel havoc. We only got an inch or so, but there were at least four accidents on local roads in less than an hour Saturday morning.
So…even if we only get a coating, roads can become treacherous. Be careful.
Here’s the forecast: Light snow arrives by mid-afternoon Tuesday and intensifies Tuesday night by 8 or 9pm. Snow is steadiest overnight, then begins to taper to light snow showers by 7 or 8am and should end by late morning.
Temperatures steady in the upper 20s.
Snow totals:
4-6 inches Berks
3-5 inches Lancaster
Fewer than 3 inches Lebanon and west
6-8 inches Philadelphia, Montgomery, and Chester Counties
5-7 inches Lehigh
7-9 inches Bucks
8-10 inches plus for central and northern NJ
Percentages, school scheduling disruptions, Berks region:
Tuesday early dismissal, 20%
Wednesday delay, 85% (that’s the chance that we’ll have at least a delay)
Wednesday cancellation, 65%
Snow potentials for the coming week
A couple of interesting potential winter weather events coming up, and with them the inevitable speculation. “It’s just a little dusting, the guy on the radio said,” say some. “I hear they want 8 inches now,” say others. (But don’t we all? I mean, so school can be cancelled? What did you think I meant? Really.)
Anywho, let’s get right to it.
Placement of the most snowfall with Friday’s storm is tricky; some areas could get a moderate snowfall, and others could just get a coating to an inch. Here’s what I think is going to happen, as of now…
Intermittent snow arrives by dawn Friday and tapers by Friday evening; a couple of snow showers are still possible early Saturday. I think the Berks area is going to get 2-3 inches of accumulation at most. The higher accumulations, perhaps in the 6-8 inch range, will likely be see in northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and NYC Metro.
What does this mean for us? Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 20s for the duration of the snowfall, so look for deteriorating travel conditions throughout the period. Possibility of delay Friday: 20% (wouldn’t make much sense); possibility of cancellation Friday: 40%; possibility of early dismissal Friday: 60%.
The weekend is looking windy and cold, with temperatures struggling to make it to freezing.
Tuesday 1/11 is the next good chance of snow, but as of now I think this system is going to miss us.
Updates forthcoming as these events come into better focus…
Weather Super-Alert: Sunday blizzard!
OK, whoa. Here's the story:
It's going to start snowing around here about 7 to 9am Sunday, tapering around midnight Sunday, ending by about 7 to 9am Monday. It's a Nor'easter, folks.
A blizzard differs from an ordinary snowstorm in that it involves winds of 35mph or greater along with dramatically compromised visibility. And starting around 6pm Sunday and continuing overnight, we're getting a freaking blizzard. No joke.
You should probably be able to get around (driving and such) throughout the afternoon Sunday, but I strongly discourage travel from dinnertime Sunday through the overnight period.
Temperatures will be in the 20s throughout the day, with wind chills during the day in the teens; evening and overnight wind chills will dip well into the single digits.
Accumulations? Here are my predictions as of Saturday evening...
Berks & Lehigh Counties: 5 to 7 inches; the amounts will be difficult to measure as drifting occurs. Isolated areas may receive more.
Lancaster, Chester, York, & Lebanon Counties: 4 to 6 inches; some places locally higher, as above.
Philadelphia, Delaware, & Montgomery Counties: 6 to 10 inches; some places locally higher, as above.
Central & Southern New Jersey: 14 to 18 inches; some places locally higher, as above.
North Jersey & New York City: 12 to 16 inches; some places locally higher, as above.
So there you have it. Just goes to show what even a slight change in track can do to a forecast...
Stay tuned for updates!
Weather Alert: Snow likely on Sunday
It now appears that the storm now impacting much of the south will affect us on Sunday. Expect light snow showers (and a few steadier periods possible) beginning Sunday afternoon. Lots of wind, particularly on Sunday night, will cause near-blizzard conditions, so it's no a good idea to be out and about in that weather. Temperatures will be in the 20s for most of the day, but wind will make it feel like it's in the teens (single digits at night).
Accumulations: The Reading area--as well as west toward Lebanon and east toward Allentown--will see a coating to an inch; perhaps a bit more in isolated areas. Lancaster and Chester Counties will see 1-2 inches. Philadelphia and southern New Jersey will get 3-5 inches. Some places--particularly near the coasts and in higher elevations--may see more than 6 inches.
Clearing and very windy on Monday with wind chills in the single digits throughout the day.
Stay tuned here for further details on this developing situation.
Oh, and ... Merry Christmas.
Monsoon's White Christmas (?) Weather Update
There are rumblings of a Christmas weekend storm…here are my thoughts:
Thursday 12/23: Mostly sunny and windy (sustained at 20mph; gusts as high as 30-35mph). High 35, low 22.
Friday 12/24: Clouds mixed with sunshine and continued windy (though a bit less so than Thursday). High 37, low 21.
Saturday 12/25: Continued breezy and mainly cloudy with some breaks of sun. Clouding up at night, but dry. A bit colder. High 31, low 19.
Sunday 12/26: Overcast and quite windy with a few light snow showers possible. At this point, it appears that the moisture will be centered well to our south, so while some of us will get a dusting to a coating at most, this is not the snow event it could have been. Still, the roads are pretty cold, so even a slight coating during a light snow shower could produce slippery conditions. Use particular caution during times of precipitation on Sunday and Monday. High 31, low 22.
Monday 12/27: Continued overcast and very windy, with a few periods of light snow possible – particularly early. Turning out partly cloudy and remaining cold. High 29, low 18.
Tuesday 12/28: Sunny, clear, and still somewhat windy. High 34, low 21.
Wednesday 12/29: Partly cloudy and a bit milder. High 37, low 24.
Thursday 12/30: Mostly sunny and seasonable. High 38, low 27.
Friday 12/31: Overcast with a bit of snow likely. High 36, low 26.
Saturday 1/1/11: Sunny and colder. High 28, low 14.
Sunday 1/2: Clouds predominate. High 30, low 19.
Beyond: The first week of the New Year looks potentially headache-inducing, weather-wise. I’m looking at a chance of ice (mixed precipitation causing travel nightmares) on Monday 1/3, Wednesday 1/5, and Thursday 1/6.
As always, stay tuned. I will send updates if my thinking changes significantly regarding the Christmas weekend storm track or any aspect of the forecast…
Take care,