Piddly, rainy dusting and a non-clusterjam
My good people,
I realize I am about to disappoint thousands of school children and hundreds of teachers in the forecast area, but I have to keep it real: this week will likely be the first in a while with no delays or cancellations due to winter weather.
The details...
Expect a high in the mid 40s today, which will feel positively balmy compared with the frigid conditions we've been enduring. A few rain showers develop this evening (after 6pm or so), becoming steadier overnight. This is not heavy rain. Overnight and into Tuesday morning, the rain could mix with a bit of wet snow, but accumulations will be an inch at most. The good news is that the roads will mostly be just wet, so slippery/hazardous driving conditions should not materialize.
Probability of delay Tuesday, 20%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Behind this system, we'll see windy and much colder weather. The low Tuesday night will get down into the lower teens.
On Wednesday and Thursday, we'll see partly sunny skies with highs at or just below 30 and lows around 12.
The Thursday clusterjam, which Fox 29 lounge lizard / smarm merchant / chief ballyhooer / meteorologist John Bolaris called the "Storm of the Century," now looks to be a miss. As in, not gonna happen. I'd get into the details of why, but I don't want to bore you to death.
Anywho, right around mid-month, it appears there will be a major shift in the pattern...so the worst of winter could be behind us.
How about that?
Stay tuned for updates...
Weekend event + next week Nor'easter?
A few systems to talk about...
First, this weekend... Light to moderate snow will arrive in the hours just after midnight tonight and continuing until late morning before changing over to rain for the bulk of the afternoon. Precipitation may briefly change back to snow in the early evening as the storm moves out. Total accumulations will be an inch or two at the most, and travel disruptions should be fairly minimal. Do use caution and common sense when driving or walking in any wintry precipitation, though.
Highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40 on Sunday and Monday before another potential winter weather-maker moves through. This one will be Monday night and Tuesday morning, but will just bring us snow and rain showers. And wind! Gales and gales of wind.
Then cold: highs in the mid to upper 20s for Wednesday with breezy conditions.
Thursday 2/10 is when some forecast model solutions are pointing to a mega-blizzard for the eastern seaboard. If all falls right, there will be plenty of cold air in place to create a historic whiteout snowdump clusterjam. But hey--we're almost a week away from that one, so let's hold off on the hand-wringing and knicker-knotting for now. My gut feeling at this point is that it's not going to be that impressive.
Beyond all that, we could be dealing with some icing problems on Monday 2/14 into Tuesday 2/15, but again--way too early to call at this point.
Stay tuned for updates!
Holy Mess: The Aftermath + what's next?
As I look out my window at still-covered limbs and power lines (as well as plenty of twigs and branches on the ground), I am thankful mine is not one of the thousands of households in the area that lost power. Aside from the outages, we're dealing with dense fog in some areas (particularly Delaware and South Jersey) due to the rapidity of temperature change.
The weather stations in the area are all above freezing as of now (12:30pm) - between 33 and 37 degrees, generally. Expect afternoon highs to approach 40 before beginning the plummet after 5pm or so, eventually reaching 20 degrees by the Thursday morning commute. We could see a rain or snow shower or two late this afternoon or evening, but nothing major.
Thursday will be mostly sunny and colder, with a high struggling to reach 30 and gusty daytime winds. Friday will also be sunny but less windy; high will be at 32 or so.
Probability of at least a delay Thursday, 75% (as I said, it's going to be around 20 in time for the morning commute, and some folks--not to mention schools--will still be dealing with power outages by tomorrow morning. And this afternoon's meltage could refreeze as well.)
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 55% (for the reasons listed above.)
Probability of at least a delay Friday, 60% (temperatures will be in the mid teens during the Friday morning commute, so things could be dicey again.)
Probability of cancellation Friday, 35% (for the reasons listed above. Plus, at this point, what's another snow day? Mifflin has now had five.)
The next system to affect our area will move in Friday night - snow showers will begin by 9 or 10pm and continue overnight, with the steadiest precipitation to fall late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. The system winds up with some snow showers approaching midnight Saturday. There will likely be some mixing (snow mixed with sleet or even freezing rain for a time), but the majority of this precipitation will be snow. I expect 3 to 5 inches of accumulation here.
I heard that stream of profanity, and it's not very couth, my friend. We're all frustrated by this brutal winter. But hey - Punxsutawney Phil didn't see his shadow this morning, so we're in for an early spring! Well no, I don't think it's anatomically possible for a groundhog to do that to himself.
There's the further possibility of snow and mixed precipitation on Monday 2/7 into Tuesday 2/8.
Alright, using those words is just uncalled for. Surely we can express ourselves more appropriately? We're two-thirds of the way through meteorological winter (December, January, February) and this is the shortest month of the year! No, I will not take a long walk off a short pier. That's just hateful.
And Saturday the 12th into Sunday the 13th could be ugly as well.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Honestly, I've never heard such filth in all my life. What the h-e-double-hockey sticks is going on here, guys? Alright, for those of you who feel you need profanity to express your rage, perhaps this clip will be cathartic:
Stay tuned for updates...
Holy Mess Update: Tuesday Afternoon
Warm air aloft changed the precipitation type to sleet sooner than expected, and the bulk of the precipitation stayed to our north, keeping snowfall accumulations down in the forecast area. However, even just a bit of ice can cause major havoc, and I think that's what wigged a lot of districts into cancelling classes today.
Anyway, looking forward...
The current lull in precipitation will crank back up around 6 or 7pm tonight, with the steadiest precipitation from 9pm through late Wednesday morning.
Current radar indicates a lull until this evening. The giant area of moisture currently giving a buttload of snow to Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois will make things nasty for us here overnight...
Precipitation type will be primarily dependent on when the temperature rises above freezing. We'll see sleet and freezing rain for the bulk of the precipitation, which will still cause the massive icing and hazardous conditions I talked about in my previous post.
I think we'll see temperatures above freezing from about 10am to 5pm Wednesday, so as the storm pulls away, the precipitation will change to rain and wash away a bit of the mess. On Wednesday evening as the temperature plummets to the low 20s and the winds kick up, we could see some dangerous refreezing and even a quick snow shower or two. So be careful driving Wednesday night.
Thursday looks to be frigid with a high below freezing and a low (overnight into Friday) approaching the single digits.
We could see some snow showers on Saturday, but as of now it doesn't look like anything to be worried about.
Next good chance for snow is Tuesday 2/8 into Wednesday 2/9, as well as Saturday 2/12 into Sunday 2/13...
School scheduling meter:
Probability of at least a delay Wednesday, 80%
Probability of cancellation Wednesday, 60%
Probability of at least a delay Thursday, 65%
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 35%
Probability of at least a delay Friday, 35%
Probability of cancellation Friday, 15%
Stay tuned for further in-storm updates!
Monsoon's Forecast: The Groundhog Day Holy Mess
This is a challenging forecast—again—because of the storm’s complexity. Timing (of precipitation arrivals and mixing) will be the key in terms of school scheduling. There is also the wildcard of warmer air aloft, which affects the precipitation type we will see.
But you didn’t come here for hogwash and horsefeathers, now did you? No, you came here for a definitive forecast. And a definitive forecast you shall damned well receive.
Reading/Berks: flurries and light snow showers arrive as early as 8 or 9pm this evening, becoming a steadier snow after midnight. The snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain by early Tuesday afternoon, becoming all ice by late afternoon. Snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches.
Snow arrives late Monday night into Tuesday morning.The temperature will rise only into the upper 20s through this period, so the precipitation that does fall—even if it is rain—will freeze to surfaces.
There will be a bit of a lull in the precipitation later Tuesday evening before the moisture cranks up, delivering us nearly an inch of freezing rain overnight into Wednesday morning. The temperature will finally climb above freezing by late Wednesday morning, so plain rain will fall then. However, expect hazardous driving conditions through the afternoon and evening as the rain will simply coat the thick ice and snow already packed on roadways.
Freezing rain Tuesday into Wednesday will create widespread icing before the precipitation changes to plain rain later Wednesday.Finally, on Wednesday evening, as arctic air floods the region, the precipitation will likely end as snow showers, with steadier bands producing perhaps an inch of additional accumulation. Oh, and it will be quite windy, too.
The aforementioned arctic air will drive temperatures down into the teens by Thursday morning, and highs will only reach the mid 20s on Thursday. Single-digit lows are possible on Thursday night into Friday.
My primary concern with this storm is icing. If we have a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain—and I think we will—we will see downed power lines, downed tree limbs, and travel difficulties, especially on back roads and untreated surfaces. In addition, the widespread icing will make for poor flying weather (e.g., ice-clad wings and runways), so expect a prolonged period of delayed and cancelled flights from Tuesday morning into Thursday morning. School scheduling percentages...
Probability of at least a delay Tuesday: 90%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday: 80%
Probability of at least a delay Wednesday: 80%
Probability of cancellation Wednesday: 70%
Probability of at least a delay Thursday: 65%
Probability of cancellation Thursday: 40%
Probability of at least a delay Friday: 45%
Probability of cancellation Friday: 25%
And now, by popular demand, here’s the outlook for some other places…
Pittsburgh: snow arrives by 6 or 7pm tonight, then continues overnight, accumulating an inch or two before changing over to freezing rain before dawn. Freezing rain changes over to plain rain by late morning Tuesday. Temperatures will rise well above freezing throughout the day, so this precipitation should not create icing. Rain may freeze on surfaces on Tuesday night, especially at higher elevations, so use caution. Rain will change back over to light snow on Wednesday afternoon and evening, accumulating only a coating to an inch.
Philadelphia, northern Delaware, and South Jersey: snow arrives after midnight and accumulates only a coating to an inch before changing to freezing rain and sleet by mid-morning Tuesday. This mess changes to all rain by late afternoon, so impact on the evening commute should be minimal. Freezing rain overnight and into Wednesday morning will likely compromise the AM commute, but will quickly change over to rain. There may be a few snow showers in the evening, but these will yield little to no accumulation.
Central and northern New Jersey, as well as NYC: snow arrives after midnight and accumulates 4-6 inches before changing to freezing rain and sleet by mid-afternoon Tuesday. There could be a half-inch or more accumulation of sleet and ice by Tuesday night. Icing will be a major problem on Tuesday and will likely cancel schools and make travel treacherous. Freezing rain continues overnight, but plain rain by late morning should wash away a lot of the “ick.” Expect snow showers by late afternoon into the evening, then clearing.
Of course, stay tuned for updates and tweakage on the forecast and throughout the storm…
On a final note, monsoonmartin.squarespace.com has had its best month ever in January, thanks to you guys – well over 5,000 hits. I know that a video of a bulldog humping a stuffed animal can get 5,000 hits in a few hours on YouTube, but still, this is a major milestone for me. So hey…thanks for tuning in, or dialing me up, or whatever. Big ups to the Weather Crew!!
Monsoon's update: Little Clipper II and next week's holy mess
Yesterday's Little Clipper I gave us about an inch on grassy surfaces and provided an unwelcome distraction throughout the school day; last night, however, those wet surfaces froze and caused some slippery spots, especially in parking lots and on sidewalks.
Today's Little Clipper II looks a bit juicy in spots - some moderate bands of precipitation should move through the Berks area between noon and 4pm or so. We could end up getting an inch or two out of this, and for a time it might snow steadily enough that it actually sticks on the roads. So use caution when driving.
Behind these two Little Clippers, we'll have a seasonable Sunday (highs in the mid 30s) before once again contending with extreme cold (highs on Monday and Tuesday will only be in the mid to upper 20s).
And then there's the protracted, mixed holy mess.
The timing is tricky right now, but my best guess is that it's going to be around from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.
Tuesday morning: light snow filters in ahead of the storm, resulting in little to no accumulation.
Tuesday evening: snow arrives, continuing overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday: snow will mix with and change to freezing rain and sleet before becoming all snow again by the evening rush.
Thursday morning: the precipitation tapers to snow showers; the sun may even peek out later in the day. Temperatures behind this storm will be significantly colder, with highs only in the mid 20s.
Next chances for frozen precipitation: Sunday 2/6 - Monday 2/7; and Friday 2/11 - Saturday 2/12. Yes, I am serious.
Potentials for school scheduling disruptions: I'm holding off on providing percentages just yet, but I think a cancellation Wednesday and a delay Thursday are the most plausible scenarios.
Stay tuned for updates!
Midweek storm: the aftermath and looking ahead...
First, the storm that dumped all kinds of snow on us, reminding us of the difference in weight between a shovelful of powder and a shovelful of wet snow. I received reports of thundersnow and lightning in Lindenwold, Newtown, Phoenixville and Center City Philadelphia; snowfall rates of nearly 2" per hour throughout southwest Jersey, Bucks and Montgomery Counties; and near-whiteout conditions in New Castle, the Philadelphia suburbs north and west, and Havertown.
Total accumulations ranged from 7-8 inches in western Berks to 11-12 inches in southwest Berks; 12-16 inches in Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties, as well as in the Illadelph. Parts of central and southern New Jersey got more than a foot and a half due to banding (concentrated areas of heavy snowfall).
Anywho, we now need to turn our attention to three more winter storms that will impact our area to varying degrees. Let me break it down like it's Hammer Time.
Little Clipper, Friday. (pronounced "Leetle Cleeper" a la the criminally underrated Nacho Libre in the sign-off of Ignacio's letter to Sister Encarnación: "Hug hug, kees kees, hug hug, beeg kees, leetle hug, kees kess, leetle keesss.")
Look for intermittent light snow anytime from the Friday morning commute through late afternoon. Accumulations will be an inch at most and will generally have little to no impact on travel, but use caution just in case.
Probability of delay Friday, 20% (due to refreezing of melted snow from Wednesday's storm along with panicking resulting from the light snowfall)
Little Clipper, Saturday. Right now it looks like this system will be even more moisture-starved, so accumulations will be held down to the "coating to a half-inch" range. Again, look for flurries and light snow showers anytime between roughly 11am and 8pm.
Nor'easter, Tuesday-Wednesday. This storm bears a lot of similarities to the one that just walloped us. Of course, track and temperature are of utmost importance in determining what kind of event we'll have to contend with, but right now it's looking like all snow and a decent amount of it. We're five days from this event, though, so a lot can happen in that period.
Stay tuned for further updates!
Monsoon's update: the juicy back-end
By about 4pm we'll be seeing light to moderate snow again in the Lancaster-Reading area. I expect the heaviest snow to fall between about 6pm and 10pm. Snow will taper after midnight and move out of here before daybreak Thursday.
Total accumulations: I expect to see 10-14 inches (including this morning's surprise hit); more in isolated areas.
Possibility of at least a delay on Thursday, 95% (there's going to be a lot to clean up, and we'll need those extra hours)
Possibility of cancellation Thursday, 75% (my confidence is growing on this for several reasons: 1. the untreated surfaces and back roads will be a mess after the shit-ton of snow we get tonight; 2. the temperature will be in the mid 20s throughout the morning, so anything that falls overnight will still be frozen in the morning; 3. it's a heavy, wet snow, and that may pull down branches and power lines--and maybe even roofs--around the area; and 4. administrators likely got an earful from angry parents for holding school at all today, turning around buses carrying little kids, which then skidded around the slippery roads for hours; needless to say, I think they're likely to err on the side of caution tomorrow)
Well, that's it. Anything else interesting comes up, I'll let you know. And remember to email me with reports of snow totals, thunder, or anything else of note...