Monsoon's Renaissance Faire forecast
Tomorrow (Thursday 10/13) is the annual Renaissance Faire trip, and right on schedule, the weather is making jeopardizing a merry olde tyme. Today we’ll see steady rain this morning, scattered showers this afternoon, and heavy rain in the evening and late at night, when thunderstorms could mix in as well.
Then we’ll enjoy a lull in the precipitation; the timing of that lull will determine whether those in attendance will be huddling miserably under umbrellas crying, “Fie upon these rain-droppes! ‘Sblood!” or carousing gaily through the Shire saying, “Gramercy, Mother Nature, for sparing us thy ruinous mudde-puddle-makers!”
Anywho.
Here’s what I think is going to happen. We’ll see fog, light rain and widely scattered showers in the morning, then continued cloudiness (but generally no rain) and becoming a bit breezy in the afternoon, followed by showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Temperatures throughout the day: 59 degrees at 8am; 62 degrees at 10am; 68 degrees at noon; and 71 degrees at 2pm.
We’ll see showers on Friday, especially in the morning, with a high around 70.
For the weekend, expect cooler temperatures but clear skies. The high of 64 on Saturday will feel like the upper 50s due to windy conditions; expect overnight lows in the 40s. Sunday’s high will be 67.
Next good chance of rain will be Wednesday the 19th. Thereafter, we’ll see a major cool-down with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
Lee brings the rain, brings the pain
Good people,
I am sitting here enjoying a baseball contest between the odious Braves of Atlanta (and their racist, ridiculous tomahawk chop) and the Phillies of Illadelphia. Actually, it's not much of a contest, given the pitching prowess of Cliff Lee and some fine defensive work by the likes of Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard.
Speaking of Lee, the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee are churning up the Appalachian Trail right now, and will be soaking us right through to the tighty whities for the foreseeable future.
So yeah.
It's going to rain, generally very hard, from now (Monday evening) right through to Thursday morning. Already-waterlogged areas (from an August that saw record-setting rainfall and then Irene) will get 3-5 more inches of rain. Flooding will be a real problem, though mercifully, wind will not be an issue. Still, look out for scattered power outages and some downed trees.
Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs only in the mid 60s; Wednesday and Thursday will see increased humidity as highs reach into the mid to upper 70s. We'll see rain taper throughout the day on Thursday.
Friday will be partly cloudy and still rather humid, with highs near 80. More of the same for the weekend, with highs reaching into the mid 80s.
So when will it cool down, Monsoon? I mean, it's the middle of September, for Bunk's sake!
Well, it just so happens that the cool-down will coincide with the precise midpoint of the month: Thursday will see highs in the upper 60s, and by the following weekend, we may even see overnight temperatures dip into the 40s!
Come on, Irene
Hurricane Irene, named after the Greek word for “peace,” is set to wreak anything but. Just days ago we sat in jangled awe of a workshop leader who could not even be stopped by a natural disaster; the hurricane’s impact on our area may be serious enough to delay the start of the school year.
The details:
Hurricane Irene is currently a category 3 storm, meaning it has sustained winds of 111-130mph. It’s also very slow-moving, so it’s liable to dump lots of rain on any given location. Coastal areas in North Carolina and Maryland have called for mandatory evacuations ahead of the storm, which is set to hit these areas Saturday into Saturday night. Definitive track is still up for conjecture, but the consensus is a more westward track.
Here’s what to expect in our region:
The outer bands of the hurricane reach our area by later Saturday afternoon, bringing light to moderate rainfall. Toward the overnight hours, the rain will intensify and winds will pick up. On Sunday, rain will fall for much of the daylight period, and winds on the back end of the storm (as it pulls away and moves to NYC and New England) will be in excess of 50mph. Total rainfall will be 3 to 6 inches in most places, with isolated areas getting as much as 10 inches. When it passes through southeastern Pennsylvania, Irene will be a tropical storm, but the potential for damage is still very real:
- Flooding. August has been one of the wettest months in history for many of us, and this intense period of additional rainfall has the potential to cause serious and widespread flooding.
- Outages. The waterlogged soil will surrender trees to the wind, and when these trees come down, they often bring power lines with them. And they block roads.
- Beach erosion. Obviously this will be confined to coastal areas, which will also be beset with flooding, wind damage to roofs and windows, and the like.
- Travel nightmares. Flooding and downed trees could potentially delay road travel; high winds and driving rain are likely to delay air travel.
The bottom line is that school cancellations are not out of the question for some, delaying the start of the school year until Tuesday, 8/30. This eventuality will depend on the prevalence of the above storm-related complications in and around schools and their communities. At this early moment, I will assign a 20% probability of cancellation or delay for Monday 8/29.
Behind the storm, look for sunny, dry and pleasant conditions from Monday through Thursday with highs around 80.
Oh, and … have a great school year!
Monsoon's Quick Update: Relief from Muggy Swampiness
My good people,
Later on today, a cool front is going to move through, providing some relief from the midsummer-like heat and humidity of the past few days. With that cool front, we'll see some thunderstorms in the mid- and late-afternoon. After a high at or near 90 today, temperatures will plummet into the upper 50s overnight.
Tomorrow we'll enjoy plenty of sunshine, lower humidity, breezy conditions, and a high around 80.
Friday - the rescheduled Imagine Day, which was originally announced as having no rain date - will be beautiful: high in the upper 70s, light breezes, and mostly sunny skies. Low Friday night down around 50.
Saturday looks partly cloudy and a bit warmer. High in the low 80s.
Sunday will continue partly cloudy with highs in the mid 80s.
Next week looks like more of the same - highs in the low to mid 80s, plenty of sunshine - with a bit more heat and humidity later in the week.
Stay tuned for updates...
Monsoon's Judgment Day Approacheth Forecast
My forecast will include the hotly anticipated Imagine Day forecast and conclude with the cataclysmic events of Armageddon, which is slated for Saturday evening.
Thursday 5/19: overcast with thunderstorms likely in the late afternoon and evening, some of which could be severe. A stray shower or two can't be ruled out. High in the mid 70s.
Friday 5/20: mostly cloudy with scattered light rain throughout the morning and early afternoon, and a chance of thunderstorms from mid-afternoon forward. We could see some peeks of sunshine in the afternoon. High again in the mid 70s.
[As far as Imagine Day goes--it is scheduled from 12:30 to 3pm on Friday, with no rain date--I am leaning toward no go. Given all the rain that we've been getting, it'll be a bit soggy out there. Of course, if the event is held, I will monitor the Doppler fastidiously so there are no unpleasant surprises. Right now I'm going with a 40% chance that Imagine Day will go on as scheduled.]
Saturday 5/21: the day will start pleasantly enough, with partly cloudy skies and an afternoon high reaching near 80. Toward evening, temperatures will begin their rapid descent toward the upper 50s. Unfortunately, they will never get there. It has been suggested that the Apocalypse (not to be confused with the 2Pacalalypse, which commenced in 1991) will descend in a massive worldwide earthquake, which will be followed by devastating tsunami, flooding, and of course, a plague of locusts.
Too much suffering for my taste. (And, not to invite smiting, but it's rather poor form, considering the recent crisis in Japan.) I prefer to envision a giant tractor beam that will extract all the true believers from the planet, and then kaboom!
It's been real...
Monsoon breaks hiatus, drops forecast
My good people,
It is been more than a month since my last post. I cannot readily explain this extended delinquency. Perhaps I was suffering ongoing trauma from the Flying Fish incident (see below; this problem has thankfully not reemerged). Perhaps I am just bone-weary thanks to a long, long school year filled with bad news and worse children.
Anywho, I thought it was high time for a good old Monsoon forecast, and so here it is.
Tuesday 5/17: Rainy and cooler with a high in the low 60s. Expect heavy rain, especially early, amounting to perhaps as much as an inch, and isolated thunderstorms in late afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 5/18: Rainy and breezy with a half-inch of rain; flooding problems developing in some areas. High in the mid 60s. Expect showers in the evening and overnight.
Thursday 5/19: Generally cloudy but expect some peeks of sunshine. Much of the day should be rain-free, save for some late afternoon thunderstorms. High in the mid 70s.
Friday 5/20: More clouds than sun; a few showers and drizzle are possible, but not a washout. Scattered late afternoon thunderstorms are possible. High in the mid 70s. [This is Mifflin’s Imagine Day—weather permitting—so I will provide a Thursday update on Friday’s weather. Right now, I’d say there’s a 65% probability that Imagine Day will be held Friday.]
Saturday 5/21: Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and drizzle; thunderstorms possible late. High in the upper 70s.
Sunday 5/22: Some periods of sunshine mixed with clouds; no rain! Rather windy. High in the upper 70s.
Monday 5/23: Warm and humid with plenty of sunshine and storm late afternoon thunderstorms likely. High in the mid 80s.
Tuesday 5/24: Overcast with more of the same from Monday; highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday 5/25: Mostly sunny, warm and humid. Highs in the upper 80s.
Thursday 5/26: Continued sunny, unseasonably warm and humid. (Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 70s.) High in the low 90s(!).
Friday 5/27: Three days of humid, soupy, rainforesty conditions begin today. Expect highs in the range of 80, with swampy nethers and stinky children.
Beyond: Expect a cool-down Monday 5/30 into Tuesday 5/31, with scattered showers and highs in the mid 60s.
Das Geheimnis des fliegenden Fisch...
...or, the Mystery of the Flying Fish. Allow me to explain.
On Wednesday evening, I parked my car on the street across from my home. On Thursday morning, I returned to this vehicle to find a dead fish lying next to it. I called Mrs. Monsoon over to take a look, but neither of us could make sense of it. Then I noticed that the dead fish had evidently been flung (with more than a little bit of force) against the driver's side door/window/side mirror of my car, leaving a telltale slick of fish guts and scales but no damage. I have illustrated the incident for you below with two pictures taken at the scene and time of the fishy discovery.
The creature in question. It is a perch, according to friends, and it is delicious when prepared with a little bit of butter and lemon. This one, not so appetizing.The aforementioned fish guts and scales. Difficult to see, but I promise they're there.
I made my way to school and began to speculate (with the help of my trusty colleagues) what this could mean, if anything. A Google search revealed that a dead fish left on one's doorstep is a warning that he or she is going to be killed (i.e., will soon be "sleeping with the fishes" in organized crime parlance).
[In response to this revelation, a very wise acquaintance of mine wondered aloud, "If a fish means you'll be sleeping with the fishes, what does a horse head in your bed mean, that you'll be sleeping with the horses? What would that even mean?" What, indeed.]
Today, my good people, there was another fish--not in the same place, and this one had not been flung at my car. But it was a fresh fish on the other side of the street (more or less in front of our house) nonetheless. There was also a dead baby animal, possibly a squirrel, not far away.
I have just one question, and perhaps you fine readers can help me out with an answer:
Several theories have emerged to explain this piscine perplexity--some plausible, some delightfully implausible, some so crazy they just might work. Here is a mishmosh...
This is a tragic case of the rare but heartbreaking phenomenon of serial ichthycide: catching (or even purchasing) live fish, only to end their lives by flinging them against an immovable object at high speed.
Fish suicide. Too sad to even elaborate.
The random acts of local hooligans. Young tom-fools, well lubricated with liquor and laden with a bucketful of fresh-caught fish from Muddy Creek, decided to drive down our street in the wee hours and fling the fish at cars. Makes cow-tipping look like a night at the opera.
I am being targeted by someone I have rankled: a mouthbreathing tea party type, a disgruntled student, an unabashed white person. The theory is that these fishy incidents will chasten me to stop whatever behavior is causing the objection (in the list above: thinking, grading, and listening to hip hop).
I am being targeted because I am a teacher, and according to many right-wingers, teachers and their unions are the root of all the social and economic evils now faced by our society.
I am being targeted by broken-nose types for reasons I cannot fathom.
I am being targeted by any number of organizations, for any number of reasons that I will not enumerate here: the Victor Emmanuel Society, the Knights of Columbus, the Boy Scouts of America...
A hawk with missing talons has caught the fish in the creek, but then dropped them due to its disfigurement. This would explain both fishes and the baby rodent, mind you, and I thank Wendi for her demented genius.
The nine-year-old girl in the pink jacket who lives nearby is actually a child prodigy who has built a fully functioning catapult out of twigs and acorns; she has been testing it out using creatures killed by her pet cat and left in their yard.
Well, that's it. Vote for your favorite, or provide another idea. The best ones will be included in my next post. I've gotta move on: bigger fish to fry. (Sorry. I showed admirable fish-idiom restraint throughout that story, I think.)
Friday night, rain tapering to scattered drizzle by the evening. Low 38.
Saturday, foggy to start, and then mostly cloudy; slight chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Breezy. High 58, low 44.
Sunday, cloudy and rainy, mainly in the afternoon. High 64, low 53.
Monday, partly cloudy with warm southwest breezes. Look for strong thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. High 79, low 56.
Tuesday, very windy and markedly cooler with the chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the morning. High 61, low 36.
Wednesday, sunny, breezy and pleasant. High 63, low 40.
Thursday, partly cloudy and warmer. High 69, low 46.
Friday, cloudy with rain possible. High 65, low 54.
Next weekend (the 16th and 17th), rainy and warmer with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
DONNERGRAUPELN!
...that's German for 'thundersleet,' which is what is pummeling my home right now. Bunk is plastered to my side and I am coining new German words. It is truly meteorological madness.
What to expect for the rest of the evening? Periods of rain, some heavy, with sleet mixed in. Another round of nasty storms (and perhaps more thunder and lightning) will move through around 9 or 10. The precipitation could end overnight as snow, leaving a coating to an inch on cars and grassy areas.
Chance of delay Thursday: 20%; chance of cancellation Thursday, 5%.
Aside from a few early-morning rain or snow showers, Thursday will turn out windy and cool with some afternoon clearing possible. The high only gets up to 40; the overnight low will be 24.
Friday will be sunny, breezy, clear and cold, with increasing clouds late. High 38, low 26.
The weekend looks overcast and cool, with highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s. I'm keeping an eye on a weekend system, but right now that looks like it will give us, at most, a few snow or rain showers on Saturday morning and afternoon. No big whoop. (Unless things change, so stay tuned.)
Next week, we'll see moderating temperatures (highs in the low 50s by Wednesday; upper 40s prior to that) but Tuesday and Wednesday hold the chance for rain.
Next weekend (April 2nd and 3rd) looks like a chilly fricking washout: temperatures in the 50s much of the time with plenty of rainfall.