Snow / sleet potential, next few days
Thought I'd update you on a few wintry weather mini-events in our near future:
Today we could see flurries and scattered snow showers in the morning and early afternoon, then turning windy and colder. No accumulation. High 38.
Thursday will feature plenty of clouds, especially as the day goes on, and the late afternoon and evening will bring the chance of widely scattered light snow showers and flurries. No accumulation in most places; a coating in some. High in the mid 30s, low in the low 20s. (Delay Friday 20%, cancellation 5%.)
Friday looks mostly sunny, breezy, and continued cold. High 34.
Snow, later mixed with sleet, is likely late Friday overnight into Saturday, tapering by Saturday afternoon. Right now it's looking as though we'll get, at most, an inch or two of accumulation out of this system before it ends as plain rain. Temperatures holding at or just above freezing for most of the day. Then Sunday looks partly sunny and milder with a high in the low 40s.
Milder next week (highs in the 40s to near 50 some days) so the precipitation we see on Tuesday-Wednesday and Friday should be all rain.
There are some indications of a pattern change for the first part of February that would bring us some actual snow...but I'm not holding my breath...
MLK Day / forecast
Today is Martin Luther King Day. Less well-known than his civil rights work is Dr. King’s anti-war stance, which emerged strongly in the final year of his life. This pacifist epiphany occurred when "I knew that I could never again raise my voice against the violence of the oppressed in the ghettos without having first spoken clearly to the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today, my own government." On April 4, 1967, Dr. King delivered an address entitled “A Time to Break Silence.” It included the following words:
"Now, it should be incandescently clear that no one who has any concern for the integrity and life of America today can ignore the present war. If America's soul becomes totally poisoned, part of the autopsy must read: Vietnam. It can never be saved so long as it destroys the deepest hopes of men the world over. So it is that those of us who are yet determined that America will be are led down the path of protest and dissent, working for the health of our land."
Exactly one year later, he was assassinated in Memphis. James Earl Ray confessed to the murder, but theories persist that Dr. King’s nascent anti-war agitation made him a target of those who were waging that unpopular war.
Anywho. No way to smoothly transition from MLK to the weather.
So here’s what to expect overnight:
Monday will be mostly sunny and breezy today with a high only in the mid 30s.
Rain begins overnight – by 11 or 12. Sleet and freezing rain mix in throughout the early overnight hours, then changes to all rain by 4 or 5am. We could see a small accumulation of ice on the roads and sidewalks overnight—so use caution when driving—but this will be washed away by morning. Rain then tapers by late Tuesday afternoon. (The temperatures will actually rise overnight, from 32 at 11pm to 38 by 9am. Problem is, there’s no classic “trough” to trap to cold air into our area.) Still, we could see a bit of the slipperiness hang around into the morning commute, so I’ll call it:
40% chance of school delays.
15% chance of school cancellation.
The high temperature will actually reach a (comparatively) balmy 46.
Wednesday looks partly sunny, quite windy, and colder, with a high of 36 and an overnight low in the upper teens.
Thursday and Friday look like more of the same, albeit with diminishing winds. (Slight chance of snow showers Thursday night into Friday. No big whoop.)
The weekend looks milder with highs in the low 50s, but also the chance of some (rain) showers.
Snow? Ice? Wintry weather? I see nothing terribly promising through to the end of January.
Of course, all that can change rapidly, so stay tuned…
What to expect for Friday morning ... and beyond
It's been a bleak winter for snowbirds thus far. Let's see what Friday has in store...
Today we'll see gradual clearing in the afternoon, with some breaks of sun. Mild temperatures with a high in the mid 50s. Increasingly windy tonight with a few showers. Temperatures will fall through the 40s and into the 30s by the overnight hours.
Friday morning will be interesting, but I think we'll escape major issues. One theory has it that we could see a "flash freeze" overnight due to rapidly falling temperatures and wet roadways, but I don't see the cold air making very good time to our area. Another theory has the cold air arriving in time for a few inches of snow to accumulate in this area. I don't see enough moisture to warrant this theory, though.
So: Friday will be very windy with scattered flurries and snow showers in the morning. Sustained winds above 30mph; gusts past 50mph. Highs in the low 30s early, falling through the 20s throughout the day. Expect wind chills in the teens. Could see scattered power outages from the cold and wind.
Predictions: Friday cancellation 10%; Friday delay 30%.
This weekend looks partly sunny, breezy and frigid. High Saturday will be 33; low 18. High Sunday will be 27, low 11.
More of the same for Monday: highs below freezing. A weak front moves through on Tuesday evening that could bring us some snow showers, but nothing much is expected.
Keeping an eye on Saturday 1/21 for possible snow, as well as Wednesday 1/25 into Thursday 1/26 for the potential for snow and ice. But really, it's looking like we may may it through all of January with no snow-related delays or cancellations...
Arctic blast & flurries, then milder...
My good people,
The arctic blast is not exactly news to anyone who has been outside in the past twenty-four hours. I've had lots of queries about the temperature (how low will it go? why does it have to be so fricking cold?) and precipitation (is there any real snow coming our way? where's winter?). To address these queries...
Tuesday night will be really, really, bitterly cold. The temperature will get down to 11. Wind chill factors could get as low as -10. Negative ten!!!! Brrr.
Wednesday will be overcast in the main, with flurries and even a few snow showers moving through in the afternoon and evening. I don't expect any significant accumulation, but as with this morning's unexpected squalls, any snowfall can cause slippery travel and decreased visibility. Expect a high only in the upper 20s tomorrow, followed by an overnight low in the upper teens.
On Thursday we'll see conditions become a bit milder. Look for a mostly sunny high of 42 and a low in the upper 20s. Moderate winds will still make daytime temperatures feel like they are around the freezing mark.
Friday will be milder still: sun mixed with clouds, only a light wind, and a high in the upper 40s.
The weekend is looking nice with highs in the low 50s on Saturday and the upper 40s on Sunday.
Monday will bring a return of seasonable cold, though nothing approaching the current frigidity. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be around 40. (There's a slight chance of snow Sunday into Monday, but it's looking like that's going to miss us altogether to the south.)
The next really good chance for some frozen precipitation will come on Thursday 1/12 into Friday 1/13. Stay tuned for updates on that.
The 14th-15th-16th long weekend looks bitterly cold again, with highs below freezing and lows in the teens...
Bundle up...
The latest on the storm...
It’s a difficult one to call because any significant accumulation that results from this storm will be due to “banding”—and it’s hard to predict where this will take place. It’s also a fast-moving storm with a lot of potential punching power. In short, it’s a storm that has the potential to slam some places and graze others.
The forecast…
Total precipitation for this storm, rain and snow. Note that we in Berks are in the range of highest precipitation, and we'll be prime beneficiaries of dynamic cooling. Hence, the "sweet spot."It’s looking more and more like we (in central and southern Berks, and northern Lancaster County) may be in the “sweet spot” of this storm—a narrow swath of heavy accumulation that runs from York northeast to Allentown.
Expect heavy rain this afternoon and evening, with temperatures falling through the 40s and into the upper 30s. Total rainfall will be in the neighborhood of 1.5 inches.
Then we’ll see a changeover to heavy, wet snow around midnight; the wind will also kick up toward this time. Visibilities will be reduced as snow falls (with varying intensity in most places—but as I indicated earlier, thick and fast in some places) from roughly 1am to 7am. Travel will become slippery as roads quickly get snow-covered and slushy.
School disruption Thursday: delay 65%; cancellation 40%.
Total accumulations: 2 to 4 inches, with a bit more possible in higher elevations.
Then we’ll see rapid clearing through Thursday afternoon with a high in the mid 40s (and wind chills in the 20s).
Friday looks partly cloudy and breezy with a high in the mid 40s.
Saturday and Sunday look sunny and colder with windy conditions on Saturday. Highs both days will only be in the upper 30s, with lows in the mid 20s.
Monsoon's Winter 2011-12 Forecast
It's time.
Meteorological winter (December through February) is almost upon us, and it is time for me to cogitate, calculate, speculate, and prognosticate. And depending on the quality of the forecast, you all will either flagellate or adulate me.
But farewell it, for I will use no art.
(Wait, you might say: hasn't winter already begun? Didn't we have 8 to 10 inches of wintry wetness plopped on our pumpkins and mums and harvest milieus at the end of October? Yes, we did; the picture at right, taken in front of our house, attests to it. But it was an anomaly, a climatological pink moon, and it will not figure in my figuring here.)
Over all, expect a stormy winter of merciless vicissitudes, both in terms of temperature and barometric pressure. There will be a few hits and lots of near-misses. Tracking it all will be fun. (I mean that. I know sarcasm is my true medium, but I really mean that I find weather-watching and forecasting to be enjoyable.)
December 2011: this month will start with temperatures at or near normal (highs in the upper 40s, lows at or just below freezing), then around the 7th or 8th, we'll see a precipitous drop-off, with highs only in the upper 30s--and perhaps even a bit of snowfall. By mid-month we'll be back to normal, and expect a stormy, frigid end of December. Temperatures a couple of degrees below normal over all. Total snowfall: 4-6 inches. School disruptions: no delays, no cancellations.
January 2012: the end-of-year turbulence will continue into January, when we'll see some abnormally cold temperatures. The typical January thaw will follow around the third week of the month, but it will be short-lived. Temperatures 3 degrees below normal over all. Total snowfall: 10-12 inches. School disruptions: 4 delays, 2 cancellations.
February 2012: Some snow early, including a potentially major storm. Then we'll see a warm-up by mid-month, and temperatures will actually be a few degrees above normal for the month. Total snowfall: 8-10 inches. School disruptions: 2 delays, 1 cancellation.
March 2012: rainy to start, with a bit of snow mixed in early in the month, but nothing major. Temperatures will be a degree above normal. Total snowfall: nothing significant. School disruptions: 1 delay, no cancellations.
In all, I expect we'll get at or just below the normal snowfall for this region, 25 inches. We'll have 7 delays and 3 cancellations.
And I am looking forward to casting fore for you fine people, all winter long...
SERIOUSLY??
Yes, my good people, seriously. Snow in October. A Nor'easter, no less.
Here's my call:
Accumulations will generally be 4 to 6 inches of heavy, wet snow throughout Berks County; a bit less south and east of us, and a bit more in higher elevations and areas north and northeast. The greatest impact with this storm will actually be downed tree limbs (since a lot of trees still have their leaves, and are therefore heavier), and the concomitant loss of power.
Precipitation arrives as light rain in the overnight hours (12 midnight - 3am) when temperatures will be in the upper 30s.
Rain begins to mix with snow by 9 or 10am.
The most intense period of snowfall will be between noon and 6. Wind chills will be in the 20s as the storm gets going. Most of the accumulation from this storm will be primarily on trees, cars, grassy areas, and the like; roads will just be wet and slushy. However, when the snow is at its heaviest, it will accumulate even on a warmish ground.
Snow tapers by 7 or 8, then temperatures plummet into the upper 20s overnight.
Sunday's sunny skies and high in the upper 40s (not to mention the mid-autumn sun angle) will melt this all away in no time...
In addition, this is the kind of storm that will likely feature banding and thundersnow. Banding is a heavy area in a storm that can drop several inches (or more!) per hour in one area, and very little in a neighboring area. Thundersnow is, well, what it sounds like - though the thunder is audible in a smaller area than in a traditional thunderstorm because the snow actually serves to suppress the sound.
Happy Halloween!
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A vitality that could not be quenched...
My dear readers,
I greet you now from athwart a stack of term paper summaries, designed to verify that the students have actually read their books. Some students--including, but not limited to, those who have not read their books--take this opportunity to reinvent literary scholarship, vitiate the language, and spin out phrases that make their teacher emit a sound that is one part sigh, one part guffaw, and two parts despair. I will share several such groundbreaking proclamations here, interspersed among the forecast for the coming ten days or so.
Thursday, October 27th will be rainy. Rain will begin sometime around dawn and continue (some light, some moderate) through the early evening, tapering by around 6 or 7. Temperatures will fall from the mid 50s in the morning through the 40s in the late afternoon and evening (when the wind will pick up, too, making conditions feel like the upper 30s), then finally to an overnight low of 34.
Friday, October 28th will see some lingering clouds but a mostly sunny afternoon. It will also be much cooler than in recent days, with highs only getting up to 51. The overnight low could dip as low as the freezing mark.
Our first selection comes from a student who read a portion of the novel A Separate Peace, then consulted an online cheat-sheet, which used a phrase that he deeply misunderstood:
Finny breaks his leg once again, and this time he died because he had a vitality that could not be quenched, even by bone marrow.
An unquenchable vitality, you say? Sounds serious. My uncle had a certain je ne sais quois, but fortunately it was not fatal. And I knew a guy who had brass balls, but he had them removed by a friggin' ballbuster. But a vitality that could not be quenched? Even by bone marrow? Damn.
Saturday, October 29th will be cloudy and breezy with rain likely, especially in the morning and early afternoon. Some wet snow (!) could mix in, and the Poconos could see a coating to an inch of accumulation. Clearing and still a bit breezy at night. High will be in the low 40s, but conditions will feel like the low 30s or even the 20s for much of the day!
Sunday, October 30th will be sunny and far more humane. Highs will get into the low to mid 50s and winds will diminish. Overnight lows will still get into the upper 30s.
Our next bit of literary analysis comes from a student who read one-eighth, at most, of the Kate Chopin classic The Awakening. Here, the student struggles to encapsulate the lessons learned in a novel filled with infidelity, longing, and a desperate search for identity:
You believe that love is a one way train but near the middle you find out that it is not.
I believe that love is a one way train, do I? I most certainly do not. A two-way street? A freight train of passion? And don't tell me about the middle. What about the end, when the protagonist drowned herself? Was the train of love dashed on the shores of sadness? Ugh.
Monday, October 31st will see clouds mixed with sunshine, breezy, with a high in the mid 50s and a low in the low 40s.
Tuesday, November 1st will be far more seasonable: highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Wednesday, November 2nd looks sunny and windy, with highs in the mid 50s (but wind chills in the 40s) and lows in the low to mid 40s.
Next up to the dais here at the Literary Transmogrification Conference is a student who read Alan Paton's South African protest novel, Cry, the Beloved Country. This student will discuss the experience of reading the book, and suggest who might find such an experience most meaningful:
Also alot of names and words are African, so it can be hard to follow. I would only recommend this story if you are really interested by African culture, but not like tribal culture, more about Johannesburg.
The characters in this story have names like Stephen, John, James, and Arthur. Granted, the surnames are Kumalo and Msimangu (along with Jarvis, Carmichael, and Harrison). And a pet peeve of mine: Africa is one of the largest continents on this planet, with more than 50 countries today. Even within a single country, there can be hundreds of ethnic groups and clans. The inhabitants of Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa are as different from one another as the inhabitants of Norway, Laos, and Peru. And yet we see Africa as a monolith. As the kids abbreviate, SMH (shaking my head)...
Thursday, November 3rd will be cloudy, a bit of rain possible, high in the mid 50s, low in the mid 40s.
Friday, November 4th looks partly cloudy and cooler with highs in the upper 40s and lows at or below freezing.
And finally, one student offers a ray of hope: coherent, insightful analysis. The sentence below represents the entirety of his A Clockwork Orange summary:
Alex makes up some brutal invented slang that brilliantly renders his and his friends social pathology.
A couple of flies in the ointment, to continue the cliche parade: first, all evidence suggests that this student--who is now a quarter into his second senior year--did not read a single word of the book; second, the bulk of that sentence (from "brutal" to "pathology") was lifted directly from the book's back cover. And third, I might add, the student later insists that trouble ensues when the authorities do not allow Alex and his friends to use their invented language (glossing over the rape and murder sprees that may have had more to do with it). Sigh.
Saturday, November 5th will be sunny and gorgeous, with highs in the low 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s.
Sunday, November 6th looks the same.
Beyond we will see a return of wet weather (around the 8th or 9th) and slightly moderating temperatures (highs in the upper 50s and into the 60s).
I'll end tonight's post with a comment from a student who read Ken Kesey's One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest. In that novel, which takes place in a mental institution in the 1950s. The sentence encapsulates what is so simultaneously maddening and gladdening about teaching seniors: unadorned, uncompromised, and unfiltered honesty--along with casting apostrophes to the wind. It also foreshadows the condition of their instructor by the end of this process:
Shock therapy was introduced and basically fried peoples minds.