Leap Day storm?
Many people commented that Saturday morning's brief period of snow signalled the end of this (mostly) snowless winter. Maybe, maybe not.
A storm is developing for Wednesday that may bring some wintry weather to the forecast area.
I'm keeping a close eye on this one, as the temperatures at the surface and aloft will determine what kind of precipitation--and therefore, what kinds of delays and traffic issues--we'll get.
Right now it's looking like this:
Precipitation begins as snow around 5am Wednesday and begins to mix with and change to sleet by around 10am. The whole mess changes over to rain by early Wednesday afternoon. Rain tapers overnight into Thursday, and we could still see some drizzle or light rain showers throughout the day on Thursday.
Wednesday's high will only reach 35. Thursday's will be 40 with high winds making it feel much colder.
I expect the total accumulation of snow and sleet from this system to be an inch or two at most.
Right now I'm setting the school disruption meter for Berks at...
65% chance of delay Wednesday
30% chance of cancellation Wednesday
Friday looks partly cloudy and milder with highs in the upper 40s. Saturday looks windy with the chance for showers and a high in the mid 50s. Sunday looks partly sunny, windy and cooler with a high in the mid 40s.
On Monday 3/5 we could begin the day with some ice, so I'll keep an eye on that, too.
Stay tuned for updates as this event comes into better focus...
Wintry weather potential for the remainder of February
Is winter over? That's the question burning up the internets where meterologists (legit and otherwise) gather. It's a difficult question to answer, and a dangerous one, too. Trends point toward increasingly milder weather, and the sun angle makes accumulating snow less likely with each passing day. But we had a snowstorm in October, for frick's sake. If this winter has been anything, it's unpredictable.
The latest buzz centers on the potential for a Nor'easter on Sunday into Monday. Some forecasting models are pointing toward a blizzard with more than 18 inches of snow; others show a complete miss for our area. So what's going to happen? Here's my take on the final two weeks of February...
After an evening of scattered showers and drizzle on Tuesday night, we'll see gradual clearing on Wednesday 2/15 with a high in the low 50s. We'll see light precipitation develop overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, and then steadier precipitation will set in for the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will still be around freezing early Thursday morning, so we could see some icy spots develop. But the bulk of the precipitation will fall as plain rain, as Thursday afternoon temperatures will reach into the mid 40s.
Chance of Thursday school cancellation, 15%
Chance of Thursday school delay, 25%
Friday and Saturday will be partly sunny and breezy, with highs of 48 both days. Overnight lows will reach 30 each night.
Sunday will be partly cloudy and chillier with a high of only 42. I think the buzzed-about storm will miss us, so no precipitation to worry about. Monday 2/20 looks brilliantly sunny with a high remaining in the lower 40s. More of the same for Tuesday.
We'll likely see some rain on Wednesday 2/22 and Thursday 2/23, but it will be plain old rain. No wintry weather excitement here.
The final handful of days in February will be milder on the whole, with highs reaching into the 40s and 50s.
Stay tuned...
Saturday snow?
Today, the temperature will reach into the upper 40s, perhaps the low 50s, with mostly sunny skies. It will cloud up later, and a bit of rain will begin by 8pm or so. The rain will mix with, then change to, snow overnight (around midnight).
We’ll only dip below freezing as the precipitation is nearly gone. The snow will change back over to rain by mid-Saturday morning, then taper by noon. We could see scattered light snow showers on Saturday evening as well. The high temperature on Saturday will only get to about 38. Total accumulations will be just about an inch or so.
On Saturday evening, temperatures will begin to fall through the 20s and reach the teens overnight, with some wind.
Sunday morning could be a bit slippery, as afternoon highs will only reach 30 or so.
Travel will be the most treacherous late Saturday night into Sunday morning, particularly on secondary roads. Otherwise, expect just wet roads.
Monday and Tuesday will not be a cold; highs will reach near 40. Milder still on Wednesday and Thursday, which will be mostly cloudy with highs near 50.
The next threat of wintry weather is a bit of mixed precipitation Friday night 2/17 into Saturday 2/18. Otherwise, the trend is toward milder weather, and nothing much is on the horizon…
Monsoon's analysis of Wednesday's upcoming winter weather...
Monday night we’ll see temperatures drop into the upper 20s. On Tuesday, we’ll see similar conditions to today: high of 51, low of 29.
On Wednesday, a light snow event is likely. Expect light snow to begin falling by 8am, then continue intermittently—falling moderately but never heavily—through the morning. By late morning, the snow will mix with (then change to) rain, and by late afternoon some snow may mix in again. All will taper by 6 or 7pm. Temperatures will rise from freezing around 8am to the upper 30s in the afternoon.
Impacts from this storm will be minimal. Snow will mainly stick on grassy surfaces, and roadways will just be wet. There’s no a whole lot of moisture with this system, so any accumulations will be negligible.
Potential for cancellation Wednesday, 15%
Potential for early dismissal Wednesday, 30%
Potential for delayed start Thursday, 25%
Thursday will be continued seasonably cool; conditions will be breezy with a mixture of clouds and sun and a high in the mid 40s.
Friday will be much the same.
Saturday will be overcast, but nothing will materialize from this ominous cloud cover. We’ll also see colder temperatures, with a high in the low to mid 30s. Wind will make it feel below freezing.
Sunday will be sunny and windy, but continued cold. High only in the mid 30s.
There’s the potential for ice and freezing rain from Monday 2/13 into Tuesday 2/14, so stay tuned on that one.
Thereafter, we’ll see milder temperatures (highs in the 50s) and any wet weather we get will be plain rain…
Uh ... never mind ...
The Sunday-Monday storm is going to miss us. I was really looking forward to a three-day weekend (and so were many of you, desperately, to judge from your pleading inquiries), but alas, 'tis not to be.
It's going to slide south of us, and the most anyone in the vicinity will see from this storm is a trace amount of snow in extreme south Jersey and around the DelMar/Pennsylvania state line.
So. Here's what I think we'll see over the next three weeks (roughly the 3rd through the 17th)...
Sunny and chilly with highs in mid to upper 40s on Friday and Saturday. Lows in the upper 20s.
Partly sunny, chilly and a bit windy with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday and Monday. Lows in the upper 20s.
Partly to mostly sunny and quite windy with highs in the mid 40s, from Tuesday right through Thursday.
It gets colder on Friday 2/10: high in the upper 30s and rather windy.
I see dry conditions prevailing throughout the entire eight-day period outlined above.
On Saturday 2/11 we'll see a high only around freezing, and some ice/freezing rain is possible at night. Sunday could also bring a little frozen precipitation, but that's nothing major.
The next really interesting span (in terms of winter weather) is Tuesday 2/14 through Thursday 2/16. Big storm possible right around then.
Stay tuned! ...... *sigh*
Is 't possible?
First of all, prepare yourselves for the brief "January thaw," which will actually straddle two months. Today's high will be 60, and tomorrow's will be a breezy 63 with a few light showers possible, particularly in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday will be mostly cloudy and cooler (high 46) with a slight chance of showers and drizzle in the afternoon. The Nor'easter I mentioned over the weekend has not materialized. Friday and Saturday look partly sunny and continued cool with highs in the mid 40s.
Sunday to Monday is still looking interesting, though most of the traditional meteorological outlets are saying little about it. My prediction is that by Thursday or Friday, they will. Expect a high on Sunday in the upper 30s to near 40, then an overnight low in the upper 20s. Conditions are lining up for a ice storm, which would knock us out of school Monday. From what I have heard, this day off would be a welcome--and in some quarters, desperately needed--respite. So, you know, I am doing my best to make sure this happens.
As for the remainder of next week, things are (to employ an oft-used weather pun) up in the air. If cold air dams down from Canada, we could see temperatures plummet into the teens and twenties. I still see a nice snowstorm possible right around Wednesday 2/8 to Thursday 2/9.
Next weekend (the 11th and 12th) look gorgeous: highs in the low to mid 50s with plenty of sunshine.
Upcoming winter weather potentials
The first chance of some wintry weather comes this evening (7-11pm or so), when we could see some flurries or a brief period of light snow. The clouds will clear overnight and usher in a partly sunny and cool Monday with highs in the upper 30s.
Tuesday will be pleasant and milder with a high in the low 50s; Wednesday will be milder still with a high in the mid 50s. We could see a few rain showers on Wednesday.
I'm tracking a Nor'easter that could come into play on Thursday evening into Friday and cause major disruptions. As of now, though, given the snowless and mild pattern that's dominating, I don't think it's going to pan out. I'll call it partly sunny and cooler with highs in the mid 40s on Thursday, low 40s on Friday. It's a "miss" for now, but stay tuned for updates. (If we get anything, it'll be plain rain.)
Saturday and Sunday are much colder with plenty of clouds and highs at or below freezing. In fact, we'll see a shift from milder conditions to a frigid blast.
Most concerning to me is what I'm seeing for Monday, February 6th. It looks like we'll be dealing with snow and ice for the bulk of that day, and school disruptions seem likely. The high will only make it to 30.
And then... another potential snowstorm for February 8th-9th.
In sum, there are signs that wintry weather may actually return to winter. Many people have said they could use a snow day (or at least, and preferably, a delay). I'd venture to say we'll see both in the next two weeks...
Freezing drizzle tonight, then a warm-up
Tonight we'll see some light rain showers and freezing drizzle come through the area, with the potential to create some icy spots on the roads, even those that have been cleared. Greatest hazard is after 9pm tonight, through to around 4 or 5am. By the morning commute (6-8am), surfaces temperatures will be a few degrees above freezing. We could, however, encounter some fog on Monday morning, which obscures visibility and would make it more difficult to detect any lingering slick spots. Considering all that, I'll call it:
40% chance of school delays
10% chance of school cancellation
After all that, we'll see rain developing, steady to heavy at times, throughout the day and evening Monday. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and even top 50 in some places.
Tuesday looks mostly sunny, breezy and mild with highs around 50.
Wednesday and Thursday will see highs a bit lower, with the freezing rain potential returning for Thursday (stay tuned).
Beyond that, still looking at the 30th-31st for a potential ice-sleet event, as well as February 3rd to 4th for some snow!