7:45pm update: revised snow totals and percentages
Some fine-tuning:
I still see light snow beginning overnight, but temperatures will only rise into the mid-30s, so I think the snow will hang around a bit longer. Look for light snow lingering until 10 or 11am, then rain until about 3 or 4pm, then changing back to snow. In this later period of snow, Berks could see accumulations in the range of 3-6 inches. (Since it appears there will be a shorter period of rain in between the light snow and the heavier snow, the snow accumulations go up--as do our chances of having a snow day.)
Allentown gets mostly snow, accumulating 6-8 inches.
Mostly rain for Philadelphia. Could see 2-4 inches on the back end.
Lawrenceville, New Jersey looks like a rainier solution. 4-6 inches.
Nutley, New Jersey is looking like mostly snow, and a virtually guaranteed snow day. Accumulations in the range of 10-14 inches.
Still seeing historic amounts for Boston: 24 inches or more.
Back to Berks now: travel will become hazardous, starting around 4 or 5pm Friday and extending to late Saturday morning. High on Saturday will be 34 with strong winds and gradual clearing. Low Saturday night will be a frigid 15.
Revised percentages:
Chance of delay Friday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 60%
Chance of early dismissal Friday, 40%
Still looking like a delay is possible on Monday as well.
Stay tuned for updates!
The timing is pants.
For those unfamiliar with the term, "pants" is a British colloquialism meaning "not up to the task" or "not ideal" - as in, This storm looked right spiffing, but then the storm track went pear-shaped, and now I'm afraid it's pants.
[It looked great, but went wrong, and now it's awful.]
I'm stalling, obviously. This is a tricky forecast, and I feel like a lot is riding on it. I mean, not in a fate-of-the-free-world kind of way, but in a cementing-my-reputation-as-a-credible-forecaster kind of way.
Here it is, readers.
The forecast.
Light snow develops overnight – 11pm to 6am, on and off. Accumulations will be light: a coating to an inch at most. Precipitation will change to sleet, then plain rain, by about 7am.
Light rain is expected from 7 or 8am through late morning; thereafter, the rain will intensify throughout the afternoon. I see this period (comprising the entire school day) as rain for us, not snow.
Then we could get some “wraparound” snow. As the system leaves, we’ll see precipitation change back over to snow (maybe by 7 or 8pm) and taper overnight, ending before dawn Saturday. Winds will intensify Friday evening, reaching up to 25mph (sustained) with 35mph gusts overnight and throughout the day Saturday, diminishing by Saturday evening.
Accumulations from this “back end” of the storm will be in the range of 1-3 inches.
Philadelphia will see mostly rain – maybe an inch or two of snow on the back end.
Allentown will see more frozen precipitation and more sleet mixed in. Plain rain will fall only in the afternoon; accumulations will be in the 4-6 inches range.
Nutley, New Jersey will have a fairly mild day Friday dominated by rain, but will face higher winds (gusting into the upper 40s) and more prodigious accumulations on the back end (8-10 inches).
No, I will not stop saying “back end.”
Lawrenceville, New Jersey will see rain for most of the day Friday, switching over to snow by 8 or 9pm (with strong winds), producing back end snowfall of 3-5 inches.
Connecticut, northern New York, interior Massachusetts, and southern parts of New Hampshire and Vermont seem to be in the "bull's-eye" of this thing: these places could get 18-24 inches of snow (or even more) and will see blizzard conditions Friday night into Saturday.
Cancellation potentials for the immediate forecast area (Berks):
Chance of delay Friday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Friday, 10%
The Sunday-to-Monday storm, which actually looks more promising (for us, at least) than this Nor'easter...I'm looking at a bit of snow and ice that could be fortuitous timing wise, arriving from late Sunday night into Monday morning, so a delay would make sense for Monday.
Stay tuned for updates...
Downgrade for tonight; upgrade for Friday?
Hasselhoff reads Hasselhoff.
Last night's clipper looked robust on the radar as it came to east-southeast into Pennsylvania. An impressive area of moisture that promised to give us a nice couple of inches.
And then it got a shredded up in the mountains. (Essentially, the mountains act as a buffer, slowing down some clipper systems and pilfering their moisture.) On the radar, this looks like the ethereal disappearance of exhaled breath on a very cold day. It is very sad, particularly when one has expressed such confidence in a system's performance.
**sighhhh**
The percentages offered yesterday were unreasonably inflated. I have fired my statistician, my esthetician, and and my tactician. This type of half-assery is unacceptable around here.
Tonight's clipper is even more moisture-starved that last night's. It will leave a coating to a half-inch at most across the area; some places may see nothing but a few flurries.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Wednesday will be seasonably cold (highs in the upper 30s) and quite windy, so expect wind chills in the 20s.
Thursday will be seasonably cold and less windy. Both Wednesday and Thursday will be fairly overcast.
Thursday night into Friday is looking interesting. Light snow develops overnight Thursday into Friday, mixing with ice and creating a travel mess for the morning commute. Precipitation changes over to plain rain by the afternoon. Timing and amounts are subject to change due to various factors, and there is a lot of data (and a lot of model runs) to evaluate between now and then. But I'm going to make a preliminary (subject to change) call for school disruptions.
Chance of delay Friday: 70%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 40%
Milder next week. Then maybe some President's Day action? Winter's not over yet...
Stay tuned for updates!
The Clipper Train!
Surprise delay for a couple of districts in Berks this morning (including mine!). There could be more of that on the way.
First, I should define the term "clipper":
An Alberta clipper is an area of low pressure that moves southeastwardly (from approximately Alberta, hence the name) and rather quickly. The second part of the name derives from the clipper ships which were the fastest sea-going vessels in the mid-1800s.
These systems typically produce light accumulations—a coating here, two inches there—and bring sharp drops in temperature. With clippers, it’s also common to see some areas get two to three inches, while others get a mere coating or nearly nothing.
That’s what gave some of us light accumulations on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And a couple more clippers will move through on Monday night and Tuesday night. Clipper train! Choo choo!! Sorry.
Today will be sunny and breezy with increasing cloudiness toward afternoon. We’ll see light snow and flurries develop by late afternoon, with the period of steadiest precipitation from 8pm to 1am. Accumulations will range from a coating in some places to two inches in others. Highs in the upper 20s, lows in the lower 20s.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 65%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 20%
Tuesday will bring another clipper. Light snow develops around 8pm Tuesday, tapering by 5 or 6am. Accumulations will be in the 1-2 inch range. Highs just above freezing; lows in the mid-20s.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 75%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 35%
Clearing with times of clouds and sun on Wednesday and Thursday; highs in the upper 30s.
There’s a chance for snow and/or rain from Thursday night into Friday morning. I’m going to hold off on percentages until closer to the time. Stay tuned for updates as this system comes into clearer focus.
Milder next week, but we’re still looking at the potential for morning ice on Monday 2/11. Thereafter, I see a warming trend with highs in the 40s and 50s; no promising winter weather potentials…
It's just a little clipper...
…but it could be a travel nuisance on Saturday evening.
Here’s what to expect:
Light to moderate snow develops by 4-5pm on Saturday. The period of steadiest snow will likely be from about 11pm to 2am, but whatever falls will be intermittent. That said, be careful if you’re heading out after dark on Saturday. It doesn’t take much in terms of accumulation or rate to produce a treacherous roadway. The snow tapers to light snow showers, ending by early Sunday afternoon. Total accumulations from this system will be a coating in some places to up to two inches in others. The system is quick-moving and moisture-starved, so don’t expect much.
The good news is that these winds—so strong you find yourself getting pissed off at them when you go outside—will diminish overnight tonight, and will be rather calm throughout the weekend. The temperature overnight will get down to a frigid 14.
Temperatures on Saturday will hold steady in the mid-20s. The high on Sunday will be 34; low will be 18.
Hasselhoff: the only thing that could improve the Puppy Bowl.
Monday and Tuesday look overcast and still cold with highs just above freezing (32F) and lows in the lower 20s. (There’s another little clipper that moves through on Tuesday, but I don’t see anything impressive thus far. Just some light snow showers and flurries at best.)
Wednesday and Thursday will feature more sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday the 8th looks interesting: snow likely from mid-morning to early afternoon, then a bit of ice and freezing rain mixing in. Temperatures holding steady at or just below freezing.
Next weekend will see clearing with highs in the lower 40s and lows around 30.
Next week (beginning with Monday 2/11) looks mild and wet, with rain likely on Tuesday 2/12 and Wednesday 2/13. Highs will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s.
Aside from 2/8, I don’t really see much in the way of winter weather potential. That’s a bit distressing to me as an amateur meteorologist, but I’m hearing a lot of “I’m ready for spring” now that we’ve crossed into February…
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon's Monday night update: the vicissitudes this week; storm for the weekend?
Hi!
Just wanted to give you guys an update on the weather. Tomorrow morning (Tuesday 1/29) should not pose any travel problems, as temperatures will hold steady in the mid-30s (and certainly above freezing) overnight.
Showers on Wednesday followed by steadier rain (and even a thunderstorm!) later in the afternoon into the evening. High 64. Becoming quite windy on Wednesday afternoon-evening as well.
Times of sun and clouds, windy and colder on Thursday with a high of 43 that will feel like the low 30s.
Friday will be colder still with a high of 30 and a low of 20. (It will feel like the teens, though gird your loins for BC3-4 conditions.)
Saturday and Sunday look partly sunny with highs in the mid 30s. Some forecast models see a clipper system Saturday night into Sunday that could move through and give us 2-4 inches of accumulation.
(I have seen most of these systems sail north of us and/or suffer from moisture starvation, so it's not something I'm terribly alarmed about.)
Looking ahead, I see another clipper for the 5th-6th, and a potential Nor'easter for the 8th-9th.
Otherwise, not much is going on. Meteorological winter is two-thirds over and it's been pretty uneventful thus far.
As always, stay tuned for updates...
Friday = bust. Sadly.
My good people,
If I had a nickel for every colleague who has asked me today and yesterday whether we're still "on" for a snow day on Friday, I'd be a wealthy man indeed. Actually, they didn't so much ask as they pleaded, insisting on a day off with a desperation that bordered on mania. I would like nothing more than to confirm that we're headed for a snow day on Friday--a good, old-fashioned, snowing-when-we-wake-up, no-doubt-about-it, early-call, hunker-in snow day.
But no.
Here's what we'll have instead.
Wednesday night: Diminishing wind. Bitter cold. Low 9. BC4.
Thursday: Very cold and windy. Highs in the low to mid 20s, lows in the low teens. Wind chills in the single digits. BC4.
Friday: Really cold again. Light snow showers and flurries developing by late morning; light snow in the afternoon and evening (1pm to 10pm). Total accumulation 1-2 inches. High 25, low 17.
A word about school closing percentages: One of my distinguished peers--let's call him "Shat Flavis" to protect his identity--castigated me over my last percentage call of 40%. "Come on, man. Give us 5% or 90%," he bloviated, implying that my middle-ground call was safe, was a cop-out--was unmanly. I will not be goaded into impetuousity, however, by a diminutive volleyball coach. I am a grown man who enjoys certain fragranced soaps, has an inexplicable fixation on David Hasselhoff, and forecasts the weather reasonably. Recognize that shit.
So here are my predictions about closings:
Friday closure, 15%
Friday delay, 10%
Friday early dismissal, 30%
Saturday: Partly sunny, windy and cold. High in the mid 20s, with wind chills in the teens. BC4.
Sunday: High of about freezing, but it'll feel quite a bit milder than these frigid-assed days. BC2-3.
Next week: Getting milder. Highs in the 40s by Tuesday. Some precipitation by midweek, but that looks like rain at this point.
Next good chance of snow: Sunday 2/3 to Monday 2/4; Thursday 2/7 to Friday 2/8; Monday 2/11 to Tuesday 2/12. Of course, don't count on any of those. Meteorological winter is nearly two-thirds over, and we're running out of chances for good snow.
Stay tuned for updates!
Quick update: Monday night's clipper, Profound balls-coldness, and Friday snow?
Here's what to expect over the next week:
Monday 1/21: Overcast with a few light snow showers in the afternoon and evening. This clipper system is fairly moisture-starved, so I don't see more than a dusting to a quarter-inch from this. High 33, low 17. Breezy, especially at night, so we'll see wind chills at or below zero. BC4-5. Ouch.
Tuesday 1/22: Arctic air moves in, for reals. Breezy, too--especially early. Partly sunny. High 24, low 11. BC4-5 all damn day.
The flag of Uruguay. It is a happy, happy sun.Wednesday 1/23: The coldest day of the winter. High 20, low 8. A solid BC4 all day. Mainly cloudy with some breaks of sunshine.
Thursday 1/24: Cold, again. But a bit less so. High 26, low 15. It'll be like Uruguay in July, as the old saying goes. (It's not a saying at all. But it should be, since the two words rhyme, and I imagine it's soupily hot there all the time. Or maybe it's not where I think it is. Near the equator, right? Someone enlighten me.)
Friday 1/25: Snow and sleet are likely, from Thursday overnight into Friday evening. It's about 100 hours away, so my forecast can (and likely will) change between now and then. But for now, the most likely scenario is 4-6 inches of accumulation (mostly snow) and travel hazards. And, potentially, school closures. High 33, low 21.
The weekend: Plenty of sunshine, but cold. Highs in the mid 20s, lows in the mid teens. Windy as balls on Sunday too. (Question: should I devise a balls-windiness scale as well? A balls-hotness scale?)
Stay tuned for updates...