Midweek storm update - Tuesday noon
There's a lot of disagreement on this storm - some have us getting slammed with 8-12 inches of snow, some have us getting a coating to a couple of inches. Potential complicating factors like timing, mixing, borderliine surface temperatures, sun angle, and the formation of a "dry slot" (an precipitation-free area that forms inside a precipitation field) have made meteorologists reluctant to make a definitive forecast.
(Some in the meteorological community even speak of this as a "nowcasting" event - one for which all meteorologists can do is watch the storm as it happens and project what will happen next. What this really means is that they can't commit to a forecast, so they invented an oxymoronic term to deflect attention from this fact.)
So here is my best semi-educated guess:
Light snow develops around 7-9am Wednesday for our area, becoming steadier toward late morning. We will see the snow mixing with rain between 10 and 1, then becoming all rain for a time in the afternoon before changing back to all snow by 5 or 6pm Wednesday. The snow will continue through the evening, will taper a bit overnight, and will end just prior to the Thursday morning rush.
School closing meter:
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 60%
Chance of delay Wednesday: 15%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday: 35%
Chance of cancellation Thursday: 70%
Chance of delay Thursday: 80%
Accumulations:
Philadelphia and points south and east, 1-3 inches, lots of mixing
Northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia (much of Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties), Reading, Allentown, 4-6 inches, a bit of early mixing; locally higher amounts
Lancaster, York, northern Maryland, moderate mixing, heavy snow, 6-10 inches
So that's my call as of noon. I will send out updates this afternoon and/or evening if my thinking changes...
Midweek storm update - Monday evening
This weekend's models took the storm south of our area, but today's models are trending a bit northward.
Bottom line: I like what I'm seeing. The storm is looking bigger, and heavier precipitation means more snow for us.
My call tonight is that snow begins early Wednesday morning (3-4am) and ends as light snow showers by early Thursday morning. There may be a bit of mixing (with rain) on Wednesday afternoon, but I expect the bulk of precipitation to fall as snow. I'm going with accumulations in the range of 6-8 inches in our area.
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 70%.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 20%.
Chance of cancellation Thursday: 40%.
Chance of delay Thursday: 70%.
Winds will be strong (25mph, with some gusts in the 30s) during this storm, with higher winds at the coasts, leading to coastal flooding and beach erosion. We could see some power outages in this area due to the winds and the heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines.
All of us here at monsoonmartin will be keeping a close eye on this storm. Stay tuned for updates as we fine-tune the forecast in terms of track, timing, and troubles (had to preserve the alliteration there)...
Midweek storm update - Sunday afternoon
My good people.
First, thanks to all who have liked my facebook page. 221 likes and counting!
Second, an update on the midweek storm:
The timing now looks like early Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. So if it hits us, we're in for snow days Wednesday and Thursday.
The latest model solutions have been showing a track just south of our area; that would mean that West Virginia, northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, D.C., and Baltimore would get the brunt of the snow. Philadelphia would get rain, maybe a few slushy inches. Allentown, Berks, and areas north would get almost nothing.
But changing one's forecast according to the vicissitudes of each model run (most of them come out every six hours) is disparaged in meteorological circles as "model hugging." In other words, one should make one's forecast based on all the available information, rather than using the models themselves as a de facto forecast. It's lazy, says the meteorological community. You're better than that.
My "gut" says that model runs (which are in some disagreement in terms of track) will come northward in the next 36 hours, so I'm going to stick to my original forecast (6-12 inches and high winds), with my "final call" forthcoming on Monday night.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monster storm likely next week--but do not panic
Well. Meteorological winter is over (it runs from the beginning of December through the end of February), so of course it’s time to talk about a snowstorm.
Screwy.
The timing will likely be late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
Saturday 3/2: Periods of clouds and sun; breezy. High 42, low 28.
Sunday 3/3: Partly sunny, breezy and colder. High 38, low 25.
Monday 3/4: Partly sunny and breezy again. High 38, low 25.
Tuesday 3/5: Sun gives way to clouds; milder. Snow likely late. High 44, low 30.
Wednesday 3/6: Snow, rain, and wind. If this hits us, we’ll see near-blizzard conditions, widespread power outages, and more than a foot of snow. And, more than likely, school cancellations on both Wednesday and Thursday.
I’m not ready to make a definitive forecast yet, but I am leaning more strongly toward this is going to happen than toward I don’t see it.
The Hoff gives you both barrels of beefcake.It will melt for the most part by the weekend of the 9th and 10th, as both days will see brilliant sunshine and temperatures rising into the 50s.
I will be watching the forecast models closely this weekend, as well as how the system behaves as it impacts the Midwest on Sunday and Monday. It should come into clearer focus as we get into the window of 48-72 hours before the event, so that would be Sunday.
Stay tuned for updates, obs.
Friday - Saturday storm and beyond...
Complicated storm arrives tomorrow evening, but we will see mostly light rain and drizzle from it.
The Weather Channel is calling it "Winter Storm Q." You know how TWC decided to name winter storms this year? And they had Nemo and Luna, et al? Yeah, they apparently couldn't come up with a Q name. I mean, how difficult is it? Quincy, Quentin, Quadrant, Quail-face, Quim Brown? Sheesh.
Here's what to expect:
Friday begins with sunny skies, but clouds (and winds) will increase throughout the day. High will reach the upper 30s.
Drizzle starts around 8 or 9pm. We may see some slick surfaces, so use caution when driving, especially late Friday night. Early Saturday morning may see some slippy spots, too. However, I think for the most part, roads will just be wet with this event.
Saturday, mid-afternoon.Saturday will be rainy (showers and drizzle), cool (holding steady in the 30s) and a bit breezy. Tapering toward evening, then clearing skies.
Sunday looks sunny and breezy; high 40. Monday looks sunny; high 44.
[Once again, it looks as if upstate New York and much of New England will get slammed by this storm. Everyone south of New York City will see all (or mostly) rain.]
The next decent chances of wintry weather are Wednesday 2/27 and Friday 3/1, but even these are far from blockbusters.
Stay tuned for udpates!
Wintry mix early Tuesday; again Friday-Saturday?
Hi there!
Here's what to expect tomorrow:
Precipitation arrives by 7 or 8am on Tuesday. It will begin as a bit of ice and snow, but temperatures will rise quickly - into the mid 40s by afternoon. We could see some slick spots during the AM commute, but I think we see very few problems from this. Windy in the afternoon.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 5%
Sunny, breezy, and colder on Wednesday: high 34, low 19.
Continued breezy and increasingly cloudy on Thursday: high 36, low 24.
Friday looks interesting, with temperatures holding steady in the 30s throughout the day. We could see accumulating snow and travel delays from this one - particularly Friday evening into Saturday - but there are too many factors to make the call yet.
Stay tuned for updates!
Tomorrow's storm and weekend snow showers
Today will be mostly sunny and windy with a high in the mid 40s.
Tomorrow is when the precipitation comes. Rain begins around 2-3pm. Begins to mix with snow by 10pm, then change over to all snow by 1am. Snow tapers by 6am. Total accumulations 1-3 inches.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 10%
Chance of delay Thursday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 15%
[insert Debbie Downer sound effect here]
Thursday turns out plenty sunny and breezy with a high in the low 40s.
Friday looks sunny and less windy with highs in the mid 40s.
The weekend will be colder and breezy with some flurries and show showers. No biggie. Highs in the mid 30s, lows in the low 20s.
A bit of rain to begin next week - but I see rain (and not snow) here. Colder by midweek with highs only around freezing.
Next good snow / ice chance I see is in the period from the 23rd to the 26th. I see a warming trend to end February and begin March.
Overnight icing potential, milder temperatures, and looking ahead...
We are in for some rain tomorrow, and it will get warmer. But there is the potential for freezing rain at the beginning. Here's what I see:
Rain begins overnight around 2 or 3am. Temperatures will hover around freezing during the morning commute, raising the possibility of compromised travel. I don't see it, though; the roads should be fine.
Chance of delay Monday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 10%
Temperatures will get up to the upper 40s on Monday. Rain tapers by 3-4pm.
Clouds mixed with sunshine on Tuesday; windy conditions. High 44, low 26.
The Hoff with a hawk. Why is he holding a hawk? Why is he wearing a tantalizingly unbuttoned, tasseled leather jacket? Why does a faint but dashing beard adorn his no-nonsense visage? Why the piercing, menacing glare? It is because it is.Mostly cloudy and breezy on Wednesday. High 43, low 28. Keeping an eye on the possibility for some snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but right now it doesn't look like much.
Thursday will be partly cloudy with light winds. High 44, low 30.
Plenty of sunshine on Friday. High 41, low 26.
The weekend looks overcast and windy with some flurries and snow showers around. (I don't see any accumulation or travel disruptions here.) Highs in the mid 30s; lows in the mid 20s.
Sunshine and milder conditions to begin next week - highs in the low to mid 40s, lows around 30. Warmer and rainy (just rain) by Thursday 2/21 and Friday 2/22. Warming trend thereafter.
So...is that it for winter, then? I think we'll have more to deal with.
Stay tuned for udpates...