Windy rainy cloudy sunny chilly windy cold (+ winter outlook).
My good people,
These titular adjectives are the conditions we'll see over the next 48 hours: windy, rainy, and cloudy, then sunny and chilly, then windy and cold. Ah, autumn...
Here's what to expect:
Mostly cloudy and very windy today with periods of rain, ending by around noon. Still unseasonably warm with highs reaching into the low to mid 70s. At kickoff tonight (Mifflin at Weiser), we'll be in the low 60s with diminishing winds. By the end of the game, we will be in the upper 50s.
Clouds mixed with sunshine and breezy tomorrow with a shower or two in the afternoon. Continued unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 60s. Getting chilly overnight, with highs in the low 40s.
Sunday 11/3 looks to be far chillier. It will be sunny but still breezy, and highs will only make it to the upper 40s. Sunday night will be cold as balls (speaking of which, see inset). We'll see clearing skies, diminishing winds, and temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 20s.
Next week starts out partly sunny and continued cold with highs again in the upper 40s. Overnight lows Monday will be around freezing (32°F). Tuesday will be sunny and a little more seasonable with highs in the mid 50s.
Wednesday 11/6 looks to start out sunny and gorgeous and reach a high in the mid 60s. Some rain develops at night and wraps up Thursday morning, after which temperatures will drop once again. Expect highs on Friday and Saturday to be in the low to mid 50s; it will be sunny and breezy both days.
Senhor Testiculo - "Mr. Balls" - is the real, actual, swear-to-God testicular cancer awareness mascot for Brazil's national cancer organization, Associação de Assistência as Pessoas com Câncer (AAPEC). It is a real thing and now you have seen it and you can't unsee it. You're welcome.Cloudy with some rain on Sunday 11/10 and Monday 11/11; highs in the low 50s.
The rest of that week looks chillier, with daytime highs in the mid 40s and overnight lows in the mid 20s.
So ... when will it snow? And what will the winter be like? Lots of snow days? Delays?
As many of you know, I consider long-term forecasting to be a fruitless folly, as it seeks to predict how an almost limitless array of meteorological factors will interact. A sound long-term forecast can be completely derailed if the jet stream dips south unexpectedly or we are the victims of some other unforeseen quirk of Mother Nature.
But winter forecasts are all the rage, and today is the first day of November (I know that because I heard my first Christmas carol in the grocery store this morning), so here goes.
According to the AAPEC, Mr. Balls has become "something of a celebrity" wherever he goes. "Both children and adults loved taking pictures with the mascot, a friendly snowman in the shape of a testicle." Disclaimer: testicular cancer is no laughing matter, and awareness can only be positive. But it takes a lot of ... nerve to create a human-sized, lifelike, unnervingly-detailed scrotum as the face of your publicity campaign.The winter solstice is December 21st and the vernal equinox is March 20th, so these dates mark the beginning and end of winter -- but meteorological winter is traditional considered as running from December 1st to February 28th.
Mild temperatures to begin the season, and I don't see any real snow potential until the last week in December.
January will actually be the opposite of what we're used to: milder to start, then getting colder and wetter.
February is the coldest and snowiest.
Over all: a little light. Not the blockbuster winter we have been wishing for...
Total snowfall: 22-25 inches.
School delays: 4.
School cancellations: 3.
Stay tuned for updates!
A blunk of rainsomeness.
My friends,
Since you became wet when you walked outdoors this morning, you already know that it is raining. If not, spoiler alert: it is raining.
See, look.
So how long will this blunk of squally, tempestuous weather last? To answer this question, we must discuss the origin of the moisture.
The storm contains some tropical elements - the remnants of Troical Storm Karen. But while we will see rain that is sometimes heavy, the impacts from this system should be minimal.
We will be besieged by gloomy weather through Saturday as a high pressure system keeps the storm churning just off the coast. Our immediate area (Berks) will be on the northern edge of the affected region. Here's the forecast, then, for Berks:
Thursday 10/10: Rain, heavy at times - the soakingest output of this storm for us. All day, all night. Temperatures hold steady in the mid 50s.
Friday 10/11: Overcast with rain and showers - and drizzle at times. Moist and dismal, though. Dreary and miserable. Temperatures may creep into the low 60s, but generally it will still be cool. Maybe a little breezier, too.
The Hoff reminds you: do not forget your umbrella. Lush, sexy hair does not simply happen by accident; it must be nurtured, coaxed, admired, and yes--protected from the elements.Saturday 10/12: Cloudy, misty, drizzly. Maybe a shower or two. Not a complete washout, but not a stroll-through-the-meadow type of day either. High in the mid 60s.
Sunday 10/13: Still cloudy, chance of a shower or two. Or some drizzle. Clearing a bit later, though. We may even see a few peeks of sunshine. High in the upper 60s.
Monday 10/14: Indigenous Genocide Day will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
More of the same for Tuesday 10/15 through Thursday 10/17.
Next Friday and Saturday look rainy again, I regret to inform you. But:
Sunday 10/20 will be a sunny, crisp, resplendent fall day. High in the low 60s with a stiff breeze. Overnight lows plummeting well down into the 40s (and maybe even the upper 30s!).
The following week will be chillier (highs in the 50s, lows in the 40s).
No snow on the horizon. I see a slow onset for winter this year: below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures over all in December. January, though, could pack a wallop.
Stay tuned!
High pressure dominates the first weeks of fall...
Hey there,
It's your old pal Monsoon here. Just thought I'd give you an update on the weather.
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be partly sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s. (Saturday night into Sunday and Sunday night into Monday will see temperatures dip into the 40s, especially in rural areas.)
Wednesday 10/2 will be unseasonably warm with highs in the low 80s.
Thursday 10/3 will be even more unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s.
Friday 10/4 will see some clouds mixed with sun and highs in the upper 70s.
Next weekend looks variably cloudy and seasonably cooler with highs in the low 70s. There's the chance of a passing shower or two on Sunday.
Inexplicable. I can no longer explain or defend this man, or my bewildering affection for him.Next week (the week beginning Monday 10/7) will see some clouds and fog to start, with some showers possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s at the beginning of the week, but in the lower 60s by the end of the week. Throughout the week, overnight lows will dip well into the 40s.
Snow is likely on Saturday 10/12--
Naw. Just joshin'. We won't see temperatures dipping below freezing until mid-November, the way it looks now.
I'm working on a winter 2013-14 forecast (that's meteorological winter, December 1st through February 28th). Seasonal forecasts are generally a fool's errand, and involve a significant amount of guesswork. But it's what I do, so I will do it.
Unseasonably cool and dry...
...and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
After last week's heat wave, the weather over the past few days has been perfect: low humidity, highs in the low 80s, gentle breezes. The absolute best weather possible for this time of year.
This weekend will be a little hiccup in that trend. Expect increasing cloudiness and humidity throughout the day, with a scattered thunderstorm possible late this afternoon or this evening. Scattered storms are also possible on Sunday, which will be overcast and humid with temperatures generally holding steady in the 70s. When the front arrives late Sunday, some places will see heavy rain, and most everyone is likely to see some rain. (Rainfall totals will range widely from less than a half inch to as much as two inches.)
Best place to keep up with the action is Weather Underground's WunderMap®.
Sir David Hasselhoff snuggles with a wombat at a zoo in Australia. Yes, I have knighted him, because he's the Knight Rider, and yes I can do that. It's done. He's a knight.Then it goes back to being awesome: highs in the low 80s, sunny, low humidity, light breezes for the duration of the week. Lows will be in the lower 60s and may even reach the upper 50s Monday night into Tuesday. (There's a small chance of storms on Thursday, but that seems sketchy to me. Stay tuned for updates.)
Next weekend (the first weekend in August) looks iffy again, with showers and storms possible, particularly on Saturday.
But then the following week (August 5th to the 9th) is going to be great again: mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s, lows in the upper 50s, breezy. (We may have to deal with showers toward the end of the week, but let's not worry about that just now.)
And then...
AND THEN...
AND THEN...?
more of the same. (Tricked you there, didn't I? You thought I was going to say "back to the heat and humidity and the sweating and the sopping." But no.)
In fact, I don't see temperatures getting into the 90s again until the very end of August!
So enjoy, my excellent readers. You deserve it.
Your love is like a heat wave!
False.
Unless Martha and the Vandellas are lamenting a suffocating, nauseating boyfriend in whose presence one can develop dementia, cramping, or heat stroke, the 1963 hit song “(Love is Like a) Heat Wave” is grievously inaccurate.
Here in the Northeast, a “heat wave” is typically defined as a period of three or more consecutive days on which the temperature (or, alternatively, the heat index) reaches 90 degrees or above. Get ready for TV news interviews with people who work outside ("How are you dealing with this heat?" "Drinkin' plenty of water, I guess."), tips from the CDC on how to deal with the heat ("Drink plenty of water") and ominous dark orange and red blotches on weather maps, Excessive Heat Warnings, and all the rest.
In all seriousness, though, extreme heat kills more people in this country each year than any other weather event--more than hurricanes, more than tornadoes, more than floods. So be sensible: check on the elderly, don't leave pets in cars, stay hydrated, shit like that.
By any measure, but certainly by the definition cited above, this week will bring a heat wave.
Sunday 7/14 will see a high of 91 with moderate humidity, pushing heat index readings into the upper 90s.
Monday 7/15 is when the heat wave starts cranking. The high will reach 94 with elevated humidity, pushing heat indices into the 101 range. Look for isolated thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening.
Tuesday 7/16 will be hot and humid with hazy skies. Highs will again be 94, with heat indices around 102.
Wednesday 7/17 will be worse, so if at all possible, don’t schedule any extended outdoor activities today. High 96, heat index 104.
Thursday 7/18 will be just as nasty as Wednesday, so again, stay indoors as much as possible. High 97, heat index 104.
Friday 7/19, hot and humid. Afternoon storms possible. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. High 94, heat index 101.
Saturday 7/20, a weak cold front comes through and produces some afternoon storms. Whoop-de-frickin-do. High 90.
Sunday 7/21, mostly sunny and a bit less oppressive, but kind of humid. High 86.
Next week looks stormy, overcast, and humid with highs generally in the mid 80s.
Stay cool!
What the hinky hell is "probability of precipitation"?
My fine friends,
For decades, weather forecasts have included "probability of precipitation," which is expressed as a percentage. Today, for instance, there is a 30% chance of storms. Same percentage tomorrow (Wednesday). On Thursday and Friday, though, it's 60% during the day and 50% at night. More of the same percentage horseshit over the weekend.
(Expect temperatures to reach above 90 degrees Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. We won't really see a break in the humidity until after the Independence Day holiday.)
Further complicating matters in forecasting precipiation are terms like "scattered," "isolated," "widespread," "severe," and "strong" when referring to storm potential.
Fear not: Uncle Monsoon is here to sort it all out for you.
(Wait. That sounds creepy, somehow. Let me try that again.)
Fear not: your special weather friend Monsoon is here to make everything al
(Even creepier.)
Fear not: I will explain.
First, the percentages. A 30% chance of storms doe not mean that it will storm 30% of the time. It also does not mean that 30% of the places in the forecast area will see storms.
Instead, the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point in the forecast area. It's a mathematical formula:
PoP = C x A (where C = the confidence that measurable precipitation will fall somewhere in the forecast area, and A = the percentage of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it gets any at all)
So, for example, with thunderstorms, a forecaster typically knows that they are going to occur (A = 100) but determines that two-fifths of the forecast area will receive precipitation. This is typical with pop-up thunderstorms (those that are spotty and arise on hot, humid days and unstable atmosphere) rather than storms associated with a cold front, which are much more likely to strike a larger area. In the example, then, the PoP is 40%.
Let's say that a forecaster is only half sure that precipitation will occur at all, making A = 50. But the forecaster believes that if it does rain, it will happen in 60% of the coverage area. So that would make PoP = .5 x .6 = 30%.
An more confusing explanation of this percentage is as follows: a 60% PoP means that if the weather conditions theoretically occurred ten times, it would rain six out of those ten times.
The bottom line: when there is any chance of thunderstorms expressed in the forecast and your plans include being outside at any point, keep an eye on the Doppler radar. Light green is light rain; medium rain is medium rain; dark green is chubby rain. Yellow is a deluge. Orange is a downpour. Light red is a storm. Dark red is a heavy storm. Pink is a really, super bad storm. Purple and violet indicate possible tornadic activity, so don't shit around with that. Get in the basement or a windowless room until it blows over.
The best radar, I think, is:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx
A quick note about the terminology you'll hear from meteorologists about the likelihood of rain or storms (isolated, scattered, widespread, etc.). Here's how to sort it all out:
Isolated means less than 15% of the forecast area will see this kind of weather.
Widely scattered means 15-24% will see it.
Scattered means 25-54%.
Numerous or widespread means 55 to 70% chance that the area will see this kind of weather.
Prevalent means 71-72%
Pervasive means 73-75%.
Ubiquitous means 76-85%.
Omnipresent means 86-95%.
Fully rife means 96-100%.
Alright, I may have made up the last five. But the other ones are spot-on.
In future installments here at http://monsoonmartin.squarespace.com, we will tackle the difference between "partly cloudy" and "partly sunny" (and other permutations denoting cloud cover) as well as the difference between "showers" and "rain."
Stay tuned!
Supa Moon! ... and North West
A supa moon from last year. Spoiler alert: the upcoming supa moon will look a lot like this.Supa Moon. When the moon is full and at the closest point in its orbit (around the Earth, for those unfamiliar with astronomy), the moon appears much larger and brighter than normal. It's also called a "perigee moon" because of the closest-to-the-Earth orbit thing. It's going to be 14 percent larger (and not one percent more) and 30 percent brighter.
The Supa Moon is not to be confused with the Pink Moon (a full moon occurring in April, or a great little apocalyptic song by Nick Drake), the Harvest Moon (a full moon occurring in September, or a great Neil Young song), a Beaver Moon (a full moon occurring in November, which also sounds somehow inappropriate), or a Blue Moon (the occurrence of two full moons in a single calendar month, or a Rodgers and Hart standard memorably reimagined by the Marcels as a doo-wop scorcher in 1961).
To see the Supa Moon, go outside on Saturday evening, Sunday morning, or Sunday night, open your eyes, and look up. Or, if you are housebound or selenophobic (afraid of the moon) or agoraphobic (afraid of open spaces), watch it from the safety of your computer.
In other weather-themed news, Kimye have named their daughter "North," which gives her the name "North West." I am assuming it's an homage to the Hitchcock classic "North by Northwest" and a more oblique allusion to Shakespeare's Hamlet: "I am but mad north-northwest; when the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw." So hopefully they'll select the middle name "Bynorth" to complete the reference. Anyway, the kid has Kanye West and Kim Kardashian as parents, so a goofy name is the least of her worries.
Anywho, lovely weather we're having, innit? Here's what to expect:
Saturday 6/22, sunny and seasonably warm, much like today. High 86, low 63.
Sunday 6/23, mostly sunny and warmer; slight chance of some pop-up evening thunderstorms. High 89, low 66.
Monday 6/24, partly cloudy, hot and more humid. More (but not all) areas will see thunderstorms in the late afternoon. I will be complaining about the weather on this day. Believe that shit. High 92, low 68.
Tuesday 6/25, hazy, hot, and humid. Afternoon thunderstorms. Blech. High 93, low 69.
Wednesday 6/26, warm and humid! Thunderstorms. Balls. High 90, low 68.
Thursday 6/27, overcast with lower temperatures, but still humid. And you know what they say: it's not the heat, it's the humidity, that will god damned kill you. High 84, low 66.
Friday 6/28, partly cloudy and humid with thunderstorms as a strong cold front moves through. High 83, low 64.
Saturday 6/29, humid early with a lingering shower or thunderstorm, then clearing. High 82, low 60.
Sunday 6/30, relief! Sunny and gorgeous. High 80, low 56.
Beyond, the humidity and rain crank up again. The first week of July looks rainy and unstable at the moment. The another heatwave for the weekend of 7/6 and 7/7. Then more hotness. You know: summer.
Dangerous weather on tap for Thursday 6/13
Friends,
The actual baby praying mantis I found bounded away before I could snap his picture. This is a picture I found online, but that's the spitting image. This is not my finger.I met a baby praying mantis this evening whilst doing the yardwork. He was somewhat more skittish than the adult praying mantises I have known (like Manny, who used to hang out in our yard back in Adamstown). Picture a teeny, translucent praying mantis. Adorable!
But I have digressed even before I have begun. Serious weather is in our immediate future. Here are the deets:
The storm headed for our area is hammering the midwest right now. It will be a strong Nor'easter marked by a deep low and warm weather convection. In plain language, that means we will be at an elevated risk of severe weather.
Expect showers to arrive overnight, becoming steadier by 8 or 9am Thursday. The heaviest rain will be from late morning to about 8pm. Rain will taper overnight into early Friday morning.
Many places will see two inches of rain, and isolated areas will approach three inches. The composition of the storm will bring several complications:
- The aforementioned heavy rain will bring the potential for street and small-stream flooding.
- The potential development of derechos (thanks to Megan King for bringing this term to my attention), which are downbursts of destructive straight-line winds. A damaging swath of hurricane-force winds can accompany a line a severe thunderstorms. The most serious risk for this type of event is downed trees and power lines (due to the ground saturation). Again, this is not inevitable, but conditions will be favorable for derecho development.
- The potential development of tornadoes.
- Severe thunderstorms, some of which could feature hail, most likely in the late afternoon or evening.
- Zombies.
Expect highs in the 70s and high humidity tomorrow.
Friday will be partly cloudy and breezy with a slight risk of thunderstorms in the evening.
The weekend looks really nice: highs around 80, plenty of sunshine.
Another front comes through Monday and Tuesday, bringing with it some thunderstorms.