Nuisance snow tomorrow, then mild with rain, then a week of thawage.
Upon investigation, I do not believe "thawage" (THô-ij), the process of thawing, is not, strictly speaking, a word. But I like it, so it stays.
I spent a portion of yesterday taking my dad for medical testing in Malvern (he's fine, but the procedure necessitated that he be anesthetized, so he needed a ride).
Whilst sitting in the waiting room, two older women sat just behind me, openly discussing their maladies and the specialists they have consulted for each. They spoke in faux-hushed tones (the kind of urgent whispers that are actually louder than normal speech). Soon the subject turned to why they had come to this place to consult with a gastroenterologist.
The first woman then said, "This doctor, I hear he's very good."
"Yes," the second woman responded, "he's the ass whisperer."
And at this, out of the corner of my eye, I saw both women nod sagely, then sit in reverent silence.
So, on to the forecast? Shall we?
A weak disturbance will move through tomorrow morning, and it would be barely worth mentioning if not for the timing. I expect light snow in the Berks-Lehigh areas, and some mixing with sleet closer to Philadelphia. We could see snow showers anytime from about 6am to 11am, so some morning commutes could be impacted. Temperatures will not rise above freezing until Friday afternoon, and the ground is very cold, so this precipitation will "stick" quickly. Still, it looks a bit spotty and light to me, and I don't think it will impact our normal action. Accumulations will be a coating to an inch.
Chance of delay Friday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 10%
Then we see temperatures soar to the upper 30s by late Friday afternoon and stay above freezing overnight to Saturday.
Saturday looks warmer (highs creeping into the 50s with warm southern breezes) but also quite rainy. Rain tapers to drizzle and light showers by Saturday evening.
Sunday will be colder (but nowhere near the polar vortex torture chamber of brrr we've been dealing with these past few days). Sunday and Monday will see some peeks of sunshine with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
More of the same on Tuesday. Colder Wednesday and Thursday (highs in the upper 30s, lows in the low 20s).
Next Friday (1/17) marks a glut of famous birthdays. The NBA's Dwayne Wade turns 31, Ray J (whom I will never forgive for making the Kardashians famous) turns 32, and Zooey Deschanel turns 33. Dancehall reggae's Shabba Ranks turns 47, First Lady Michelle Obama turns 49, serial overactor Jim Carrey turns 51, and Steve Harvey (some of whose daytime talk show I saw in the waiting room yesterday) turns 56.
There's more! Roots rocker and sometime actor Steve Earle turns 58, and comic/actor/visionary Andy Kaufman will celebrate his 64th birthday in seclusion in the Antilles, where he has lived since he faked his own death in 1984.
The Greatest, Muhammad Ali, turns 71, Maury Povich turns 74, and James Earl Jones turns 82. (This is the first time in recorded history that these three names have appeared in the same sentence.)
The incomparable Betty White will turn 91.
And Benjamin Franklin would be celebrating his 307th birthday on January 17th had he not died in 1790.
The weather on Friday will be sunny with highs in the 40s.
Next chances of wintry weather are 1/18 (a little ice?), 1/25 (snow), and 1/27 (snow).
Stay tuned for updates!
Dangerous cold update
Sunday night freezing rain update
My good people,
The warm air that was supposed to raise temperatures well above freezing this afternoon and evening has been kept to our south and east. It will eventually move in, raising temperatures to around 40 overnight.
Another storm, another arctic blast: Sunday, Monday, and beyond...
So it's cold out. 11 degrees as I type this. Only getting up to 25 today, then heading down to the teens tonight.
And then Sunday looked provocative initially, but it now appears that most of the precipitation we'll get on Sunday will be rain. We will likely see some sleet and freezing rain in the morning, but by noon at the latest, temperatures rise above freezing and this will become a rain event. Temperatures reach, and then hold steady in, the upper 30s to 40 for the rest of the day and evening.
Precipitation will linger into Monday morning, but it will be light, and I believe all of it will fall in the form of rain. We will have a rapid drop in temperatures, but that will occur after the precipitation is over.
In honor of the extreme cold, I give you the movie poster for the 1994 made-for-television movie Avalanche, starring David Hasselhoff, who plays--spoiler alert!--the bad guy. You can tell from the movie poster that he's the bad guy, though, because he is unshaven, wearing black, and lit by a demonic reddish glow. And how it says on the poster, "DAVID HASSELHOFF GOES BAD."So Monday will start in the mid to upper 30s, fall down through the 20s through the afternoon, and reach the teens by 8pm. And then temperatures continue to fall, all the way down to zero during the Tuesday morning commute. It will also be hella windy during all this, so when the temperature is in the upper 20s, it will feel like the lower teens; when the temperature is in the mid teens, it will feel like zero; and when it is in the single digits, expect wind chills in the negative single digits or colder.
This rapid freeze-up will cause some of travel issues as standing water freezes, so watch out for black ice and just plain non-racist ice on the roadways.
If you had snot icicles last night, on Tuesday morning, you will attempt to break off one of these snotcicles™ and your entire nose will come off. I have seen it.
In fact, on Tuesday the high will be 9 (but it will feel like -6 because of the wind) and the low will be -2 (which will feel like -18 because of the wind, but when you're in the negative digits, it's just subtle hues of icy hell, at that point).
Seriously, be careful in weather this cold. Hypothermia can set in more quickly than you realize. Check on the elderly. Whatnot.
Wednesday will be milder with sunshine! The high will reach a robust 22, with the brilliant sunshine making it feel like a balmy 24.
Oh, predictions about delays and such. We will not see any precipitation-related school closings, but the extreme cold on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may prompt some delays, water-main breaks, things like that.
Possibility of delay Monday, 15%
Possibility of cancellation Monday, 10%
Possibility of early dismissal Monday, 20%
Possibility of delay Tuesday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Tuesday, 25%
Possibility of delay Wednesday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday, 10%
Cloudy on Thursday and Friday as another system comes through. This one looks moisture-starved, though, so it should only bring us snow showers. But it still bears watching.
Saturday will bring some precipitation, but temperatures should reach into the upper 40s, so most of that will be rain. But we'll have to watch the front and back ends of that one for some ice.
And that's it! Smooth sailing all the way through to spring. No more snow.
Alright, I have lied. But here's what I can say: I don't see anything close to the arctic deathgrip that will be seizing us on Tuesday.
Good day!
Thursday-Friday snowstorm
So I hope all of you had a fantastic New Year's Eve, surrounded by the people you love. I know I did.
Now to the next 72 hours, which will be an eventful period of weather.
The "sweet spot" of this storm appears to be New England (Boston and the surrounding areas will get well over a foot of snow from this system). But our area will not be spared completely. Here's my final (for now) call:
In this model projection, the "dry slot" appears as an area of dryness in a large field of precipitation.Light snow begins Thursday afternoon. But it'll just be light, and it will be intermittent. During this time we'll be in a "dry slot," which is a weather term, so any other non-weather implication would be inappropriate. A dry slot is an area of no precipitation--usually small, but sometimes larger--in a winter storm. So, say, Trenton will be getting snow, NYC, Boston, Scranton, and areas south and west, but southeastern Pennsylvania will be ... well, dry. And it will still be cold and windy (wind chills in the teens) throughout the day.
The steadier snow will begin in the evening (around 6 or 7?) and continue overnight into Friday morning (ending around 7 or 8am). The temperature on Friday will get no higher than 15, and it will be windy, so wind chills will be below zero. Overnight from Friday into Saturday, the temperature will actually reach the low single digits (maybe even zero), which is super cold, frigid, brr.
And then Sunday night into Monday looks snowy/icy, so we may have at least a delay on Monday.
So here are my calls, first for snow totals:
Lawrence, NJ and upstates PA and NJ, including the Poconos, 7-9 inches
Philadelphia and its immediate suburbs, South Jersey, northern Maryland, and Delaware, 3-5 inches
Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, Bucks County, Lebanon, 5-7 inches
And here are my calls for school closings:
Thursday school closing, 20%
Thursday delay, 10%
Thursday early dismissal, 40%
Friday school closing, 55%
Friday delay, 80%
Friday early dismissal, 10%
And a bonus preliminary call for Monday:
Monday school closing, 40%
Monday delay, 70%
Monday early dismissal, 15%
Stay tuned for updates!!
Auld Lang Snowstorm™ update
My good people,
As 2013 draws to a close, we are cold. If you plan on being outside for New Year's Eve, bundle snugly up or reconsider. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s with breezes sending wind chills into the teens.
We could also see a snow shower or two Tuesday afternoon, which will otherwise be mostly cloudy and breezy.
New Year's Day will see predominant clouds with some breaks of sunshine. High will be 33; low 24.
And then Thursday.
Model guidance continues to support a major winter storm. Highs will be around 32 on Thursday, and overnight low will be 14 thanks to arctic air from Canada. So this also points to higher snow totals. Snow starts late Wednesday night and really gets going Thursday morning. It will be windy and nasty during this storm: wind chills in the 20s during the day and below zero at night. Snow will taper late Thursday night, after which it will become even colder, prompting people to look at one another, shiver violently, and exclaim, "God damn it's cold!"
Here are the percentages, revised:
15% chance of a complete miss
20% chance of a 3-6 inch accumulation
40% chance of a 6-10 inch accumulation
25% chance of a 10-15 inch accumulation
For those hapless souls who have to go back to school on Thursday, here are my preliminary school closing predictions:
Thursday delay, 20%
Thursday cancellation, 70%
Friday delay, 65%
Friday cancellation, 40%
(Yes, I realize these percentages do not add up to 100%. They are not meant to. These figures are meant to represent the percent chance of each event. Like, in terms of odds. Math.)
Friday will be cold. Frigid, actually. Like, North Dakota cold. Minot, North Dakota.
(Alright, I looked this up. The high on Wednesday in Minot will be -3. That's negative three degrees. The low? -18. So, not quite Minot cold. But still.)
#alwayswithacar #hangloose #randomfarrahfawcetttshirt #skinnyjeans #hoffcoifBack to Friday. The high will be 16. The low will be 1. One! I shit you not. And it will be bitterly windy, so expect wind chills near zero during the day and in the negative single digits at night.
This is the kind of cold that will make you think you are being somehow punished. You will cry out and your tears will freeze right on your face. Icicles of snot. That sort of thing.
Saturday will be cold again, but less windy. And then Sunday will be a bit milder (high of 36!).
And then on Monday, when everyone else goes back to school, we may not, because of an icy mess.
This is going to be a snowy and icy and cold January, my friends. Gird your loins, and gird them well.
And stay tuned for updates!
Rain, then colder, then cold, then snow?
So here's just a quick update on the weather we can expect over the next week or so. I hope everyone is having a relaxing and safe holiday season!
Rainy Sunday, particularly in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain is heaviest during these times. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s/lower 40s, so no threat of mixing or wintry precipitation, but still watch for wet roadways and some flooding. We could get an inch of rain.
Monday looks breezy and colder. High 37, low 18, but temperatures will feel like the 20s during the day due to the wind.
Tuesday and Wednesday look cold with more clouds than sun. High Tuesday is 30; high Wednesday is 26. Overnight lows in the middle teens both nights. The Mummers will freeze; there may be a flurry around, too. Not a cataclysmic snowstorm, but still, I'll take it.
Speaking of cataclysmic snowstorms: models are indicating a possible Nor'easter for Thursday (starting in the morning, lasting all day). It's very early now, and a lot could change. So it would be wanton speculation to give you snow totals yet. But hey, that's what I do: I wantonly speculate. Here are percentages for you, and these DO add up to 100:
25% chance of a complete miss
30% chance of an accumulation in the range of 3-6 inches
30% chance of an accumulation in the range of 6-10 inches
15% chance of an accumulation in the range of 10-15 inches
It will be cold (temperatures in the lower 20s during the storm), so this would potentially be all snow with higher snow ratios (the ratio of snowfall to liquid content). So, you know, stay tuned.
Friday looks cold with snow or flurries possible.
The weekend looks clear with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.
The next potential winter storms I'm looking at are: 1/7, 1/13, 1/21, and 1/25. And 1/31.
And 2/5.
Then it quiets down.
Updates to follow!
Wet, windy, and warm ... then cold and dry. This is the Monsoon Martin year-end forecast extravaganza. Jubilee. Yuletide.
Compañeros y compañeras,
¡Feliz Navidad!
The rest of this forecast will be in English.
First, let me offer a personal shout-out to longtime friend and Monsoon supporter Bill "The Voice" Snelling, who enabled my Hoffophilia by giving me the most magnificent Christmas ornament since the dawn of time.
And now, the weather.
Sure was warm out there today (Saturday), wasn't it? Snow and snow and more snow in the last few weeks of fall, and then on the first day of winter, we get spring. Classic mix-up, Mother Nature.
Sunday will be windy and cloudy and warm, then wet too. Expect winds 15-20mph and temperatures climbing all the way to 68, shattering the record of 61 set in 1998. Scattered showers and drizzle in the afternoon, then steadier rain likely in the evening and overnight into Monday.
Hasselhoff in a Hawaiian shirt in honor of the balmy temperatures on Sunday. The top several buttons appear to be missing, which is a recurring sartorial issue for Sir Chest Hair of Hoffington.Cloudy and breezy with lingering showers on Monday, with temperatures starting in the 50s, falling through to the 40s in the evening, the 30s at night--and finally down into the 20s by Tuesday morning. So that's a 40-degree drop in only 24 hours or so.
Breezy and cold with times of sun and clouds on Tuesday, with a high of only 35. Snow showers (and even a widely scattered stronger squall) could move through in the afternoon. Overnight low gets all the way down to 16. There's that winter!
Wednesday will be sunny and cold. High 30, low 18. It will not be a white Christmas in this area, unless you are white people--in which case a white Christmas is unavoidable.
Thursday and Friday look a bit milder (highs around 38) with a few clouds around. Overnight lows in the mid 20s both nights.
Saturday and Sunday will be more of the same: highs in the mid to upper 30s, partly cloudy conditions, and overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.
The banner reads "New Delhi Call Center" in case you can't see it. And yes, those are four white guys dressed up like Indian guys, complete with dots on their heads. And this is from the January 1, 2013 parade. And this is real, I promise you, as evidenced by the clip below.Next week starts off in a similar fashion, then a small disturbance will pass through on New Year's Eve, bringing some light snow showers or flurries. Unfortunately, it does not seem like we'll have any rain or snow for the Mummers Parade, but it will be cold (temperatures in the teens and 20s) and breezy, so at least there's that. Although let's face it: they will be so loaded up on cheap beer that they won't feel a damned thing--and it's well-known that sequins absorb heat, so the frigidity will be all but lost on them.
The end of next week looks even colder--highs in the mid to upper 20s, lows in the lower teens--but I don't see any snow to worry about through the January 4th and 5th weekend.
And then...
I'm looking at potential winter weather events around January 7th, January 14th, and January 22nd. And a really active pattern is setting up for the first week of February.
So, you know...
stay tuned.