Wind chill advisory for Tuesday morning = delays or cancellations?
Wind chill advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for 1am to 10am Tuesday. It's already pretty cold and windy out there (it's about 20 degrees with wind chills in the teens as of 8pm).
Temperatures will plummet to about 2 by the morning commute; wind chill values will be in the -10 to -15 range. It will get up to a balmy 12 in the afternoon, with wind chills climbing to 0. So will we have another day off? A delay?
This is getting tricky now, since we cancelled earlier in January for extreme cold and people are starting to be all "our spring break is gone!" and "we will be going to school in July!" and "this is Obama's fault!" I mean, there's no evidence to support the last statement, but that doesn't seem to stop people otherwise.
So I think superintendents will be pretty conservative: they will use cancellations sparingly. Delays, maybe. But I have a feeling they're feeling pressure to get a full week of school in. And aside from the cold frigidness, there's nothing else looming this week.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 12%
Wednesday morning will be slightly less cold (about 6) and slightly less windy, so wind chills will be at about -5 during the morning commute. Temperatures will get all the way up to 24 on Wednesday.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 24%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 6%
The rest of the week looks gradually warmer; it looks to get above freezing by Friday. So whoo!
Morning snow showers possible on Saturday 2/1, then it'll get up to the upper 30s. Sunday, upper 30s too.
Next week, as of now, looks like a bit of a mess.
Bonus points for anyone who knows what movie this is from.(Which is another reason the deciders might be hesitant to call snow days this week.)
Freezing rain on Tuesday 2/4. Snow or sleet on Wednesday 2/5. Rain of frogs on Friday 2/7.
Alright, probably not. But do you know for sure it's not going to happen?
Next weekend (the 8th and 9th) looks potentially foul. But it's early.
And then it warms up for the middle of the month! Highs in the 40s! It will feel like the g.d. tropics.
Stay tuned for updates!
Saturday snow, another arctic blast, and what lies ahead...
Saturday's little clipper looks like it will bring some snow showers and stronger squalls (periods of intense snow) in the morning and afternoon. An inch or two of accumulation is likely (isolated areas could see three), but I don't see a big whoop with this one. Roads are pretty briny already, and most areas won't get enough snow to stick on the roads and make them treacherous.
So use caution if you're out and about tomorrow, but it's nothing that'll ruin your plans. Quite windy, too. High 30, low 9.
Cold and windy on Sunday with a snow shower or two in the late afternoon (no accumulation). High 22, low 14. Wind chills dipping below zero.
It now appears that Monday's potential snowstorm will miss us to the north, giving us only flurries and ushering in another polar vortex, which is a fashionable weather term, but which really just means that it will be super cold, frigid, bitter, thanks a pantload, Canada. Mostly cloudy and windy; becoming much colder at night. High 32, low 4.
Pals Richard Dean Anderson (sharing a kiss with a killer whale) and David Hasselhoff. This is from the late 1970s, I think. Both were doctor-portraying heartthrob soap stars who had wider ambitions: R.D.A. played Dr. Jeff Webber on "General Hospital" and The Hoff was Dr. William "Snapper" Foster on "Days of Our Lives." MacGyver (1985) and Knight Rider (1982) were not even a glint in their dreamy eyes.Tuesday actually has the potential to be the most bone-chilling day in this winter of unprecedented, breath-robbing, cruel-and-unusual balls-coldness. Partly sunny with a high of 12 and a low of -2. Those a real temperatures. Not wind chills. (The wind chills will be slightly below zero during the day, -15 overnight.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 18%
Partly sunny and bitterly cold again (but not as windy) on Wednesday. High 14, low 0.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 16%
Sunny and cold again on Thursday - high 24, low 14.
Good news: Friday's potential storm is another miss. High 30, low 18.
Next weekend looks cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers on Sunday. High of 30 on Saturday, then turning windy and actually climbing above freezing for a bit on Sunday.
The next chances of disruptive winter weather will be Tuesday 2/4 and Friday 2/7. And maybe Monday 2/10. Temperatures throughout the week will be cold, but not as cold. Highs in the upper 20s, that sort of thing.
Stay tuned for updates!!
Thursday delay? Weekend action? Next Friday? A walrus playing the saxophone??
Just wanted to see if you were paying attention on that last one. Although:
Anywho.
Thursday morning at 7am, it will be 3 degrees. Not much wind, so wind chills won't reach dangerous levels. Up to 19 in the afternoon. A few snow showers in the late afternoon and evening. It's not going to accumulate, but be aware that any snow in these frigid temperatures can make the going slippery.
Chance of delay Thursday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 14.675%
Breezy overnight and down to the single digits again. Friday will be sunny and frigid with a high of 17.
Chance of delay Friday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Friday, π%
Saturday looks cloudy and continued breezy with some flurries and snow showers, accumulating a coating to perhaps an inch. No big. High of 33.
Sunday will be cold again. Colder. High of 21. Can't rule out a snow shower or two. This is getting repetitive. Damn.
Monday brings the chance of another storm in the morning, but I think this is a miss. Turning out partly cloudy and breezy with a high of 28.
Sunny and colder on Tuesday with a high of 22 and a low of 9.
Not quite as cold on Wednesday, when the high will get all the way up to 28.
Thursday night into Friday, there's the chance for another storm - one very similar to the one that hit us yesterday. So my preliminary call is 6-8 inches, but a lot can happen between now and then in terms of track and whatnot.
In the words of Frank Vitchard (Luke Wilson) of the third-place Channel 2 news team in Anchorman, "Come on! Augh, god! This is gettin' to be ri-god-damn-diculous!"
And then ... the first weekend of February looks sunny and milder with highs in the upper 30s into the 40s. Might we be finished with the snow? I don't see anything major looming thereafter. But as always...
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!
5pm Tuesday update
As of this afternoon, it is still snowing. Philadelphia schools have cancelled for tomorrow already.
Here are the latest snow totals in the area, as of late this afternoon:
Reading, PA: 5.8 inches
Millersville, PA: 5.3 inches
Dover, York County, PA: 9.2 inches
Newark, DE: 8.2 inches
Croydon, Bucks County, PA: 8.8 inches
Exton, Chester County, PA: 5.2 inches
Northeast Philadelphia, PA: 7.1 inches
Middletown, NJ: 8.1 inches
I expect snow to wrap up by 7 or 8pm for Berks, and a bit later for Philly--maybe even after midnight.
Snow totals will be 6-8 inches for Berks, 8-10 inches for Philly. Locally higher amounts.
Tomorrow morning, about 7am, it will be 3 degrees with a -19 wind chill. Highs will only get up to 14 tomorrow. Snow's going to be blowing all over the place, particularly in the morning and early afternoon.
My call for school delays etc...
Wednesday delay, 93%
Wednesday cancellation, 77%
Please share your road observations / snow totals with me on the Facebook page. And let me know if you are delayed or closed for Wednesday 1/22!
Stay tuned...
Tuesday will be a snowy, frigid mess.
The models have shifted, and now it looks as though Tuesday's storm will be a bit more significant than I initially thought.
Light snow begins between 9 and 11am, then intensifies in the afternoon. Heaviest period of snow will be from about 1pm to 6pm. Then snow will taper by 9pm or 10pm.
Accumulations:
- 4-6 inches in Philadelphia's immediate suburbs and on out to Lancaster County, Berks, Lebanon, and Lehigh.
- 2-4 inches in areas north and west of that. The "line" between 2-4 and 4-6 will be quite sharp, and looks as though it will cut through Lebanon, Berks, and Lehigh Counties. So if and when that happens, areas in central and southern Berks would get 5 inches, while northern Berks only gets 2. Like that.
- 6-8 inches in extreme southern Pennsylvania, much of Philadelphia, south Jersey, and Delaware. Isolated areas in this band could approach a foot of accumulation--particularly south and east of Philadelphia.
Now about school cancellations and whatnot.
Because Hasselhoff. #becausehasselhoffConsiderations: the temperature will be 20 degrees around 7am, then fall to the mid teens by 5pm, and fall to the single digits overnight into Wednesday. Winds will start fairly light, but by 5pm the winds will be 15-20mph sustained, driving wind chills into the negative single digits. Wind chills by early Wednesday morning will be in the neighborhood of -12.
The roads will become slick even in light snow. In colder temperatures, road treatments like brine and rock salt are less effective. The evening rush on Tuesday will be treacherous: snowy and windy with drifting snow, low visibility, and temperatures in the teens.
I'm stalling.
Here are my predictions. Again, these are not meant to add up to 100%.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 10%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 60%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 75%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Stay tuned for updates!
Tuesday 1/21/14 snow chances - and beyond...
Some of the forecast models are picking up on a speedy little clipper system moving through on Tuesday, and suggesting that it could produce accumulating snow and travel delays for some.
It looks more like a quick dusting.
Here's what I see for the coming week:
Monday 1/20: More clouds than sun. Chilly with a high of 38. Widely scattered rain or snow showers possible in the afternoon. Winds will make it feel like 20s during the day, single digits at night.
Tuesday 1/21: Noticeably colder and mostly cloudy again. A clipper may leave an inch or two of accumulation in Delaware, Philly, and South Jersey, but I don't expect more than a dusting for the Berks region. This would be a mid-morning-to-mid-afternoon joint: 10am to 2pm? Something like that.
High 22, low 5. (Wind chills: single digits during the day, negative single digits at night.)
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 15%
Chance of delay Tuesday: 7%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 19.5%
Gratuitous Hasselhoff pic.Wednesday 1/22: Sunny, breezy, and frigid. High 17, low 9.
Thursday 1/23: Partly cloudy and still a bit breezy. Afternoon snow showers or flurries can't be ruled out. High 26, low 11.
Friday 1/24: Hey, something different! It will be breezy and cold, but the sun will be out. High 26, low 12.
Saturday 1/25: Predominant clouds. Maybe a snow shower or two. High 32, low 18.
Sunday 1/26: Cold with sun and clouds brr. High 28, low 9.
Next week: Not quite as frigid, but still cold. Watch out for some snow possible on Tuesday 1/28 into Wednesday 1/29.
Stay tuned for updates as more model runs are released. If the storm tracks west (which is not looking likely, but it's possible), then Tuesday will be more ... notable.
Snow showers overnight, the colder and breezy, then really really @#*$ing cold.
Right into it.
A few snow showers overnight - I expect them between 11pm and 5am. Should be out of the area by the time anyone has to go anywhere on Saturday morning. Accumulation a coating to two-thirds of an inch. Turning out sunny, breezy, and cold on Saturday. High 34, low 22; wind chills in the 20s during the day and the teens at night.
Another round of snow showers and flurries overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. No accumulation from this one, but look out for slickness on the roadways if they get at all snow-covered. Windy as Rusty, Kramer's bean-eating horse, throughout the day: sustained winds of 20mph with gusts over 30mph. Highs in the mid 30s.
Yes, he included yet another picture of David G.D. Hasselhoff.Monday brings another chance of snow showers early, but don't even worry about it. Gets up to the upper 30s in the afternoon, then gets colder than a polar bear's undercarriage by the nighttime. Low will get down to 18.
Tuesday will be cold. Frigid, actually. High only getting up to 20. Overnight low of 6. Windy, too, so wind chills will dip below zero at night. Nothing like the -20 wind chills from early last week, but still.
On Wednesday we'll see continued frigid conditions. In fact, it will be as bitter as an olive soaked in tonic water. High in the upper teens, low in the middle single digits.
No, I will not stop inventing faux-folksy similes.
Thursday will be cold again. Highs in the low 20s and lows in the teens. But it will be sunny! So there's that.
Friday will be cold again. I mean, it's winter. What do you want? Temperatures that are as warm as a puppy on a quilt in front of a fire?
Alright, that's enough.
So it will be cold on Friday. For the fourth straight day, we will not get above freezing: highs in the mid 20s, lows in the teens.
Hasselhoff posing with (and ostensibly rocking out to) Ted Nugent's first solo album (after he left the Amboy Dukes). Nugent, incidentally, presents an irksome conundrum for me: he is a truly great guitarist, and some of his songs ("Stranglehold," "Free for All," "Wang Dang Sweet Poontang") are among my favorites of all time. And he's a straight-edge hero, famously eschewing drugs and alcohol when he was surrounded constantly with chances to imbibe. And yet he's also an inveterate misogynist (listen to some of his lyrics), a fierce opponent of any sort of gun control, a hunting freakazoid, a vocal Obama hater, an unapologetic bigot, and perhaps most disturbing of all, a registered Republican (and unofficial Tea Party mascot). So, as I said: I'm torn.On the weekend, temperatures may actually pop briefly above freezing! High on Saturday will be 33. Then Sunday's high will be back in the 20s.
You may have noticed that I haven't mentioned snow during this cold snap. We're actually in for a period of cold, dry air. I don't see any precipitation for the period from 1/21 through 1/28, actually. Monday 1/27 and Tuesday 1/28 look partly cloudy, breezy, and cold, with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the mid teens.
Then it gets a little bit interesting.
I see a snowstorm for Wednesday 1/29 into Thursday 1/30. And from Tuesday 2/4 into Wednesday 2/5. The middle of February looks provocative, too.
So the overall message?
A few minor clipper systems give us snow showers over the next few days. Next week will be super cold, so it's going to be important to do things like leave a trickle of water running through your taps, especially if you live in a big-assed drafty-assed old house with single-paned windows, and you would rather not have your pipes freeze.
For example.
So stay tuned for updates and keep warm!
Wednesday miss, but weekend threat?
The Wednesday system, which initially looked promising, now looks like a winter weather dud due to warmer air and storm track. But the models are hinting at something more substantial for Saturday. Here's the forecast:
Listen to David Hasselhoff's disembodied head.Tuesday 1/14: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers overnight and into early Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper 40s.
Getting down to the upper 30s overnight.
Wednesday 1/15: Cloudy with a high of 44. Rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow showers in the late afternoon. If there is any accumulation, it will be very light. Coating to an inch. Low of 29 overnight.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 10%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 30%
Thursday 1/16: Becoming mostly sunny with a high of 39.
Chance of delay Thursday, 25%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 10%
I am too much of a wuss to get an actual tattoo, but if I ever did, it would be this one right here, on my forehead. Go ahead, judge me.Friday 1/17: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold with a high of 42.
Saturday 1/18 will be partly cloudy and colder with a high of 34. There could be some morning and afternoon snow showers, which could slicken roads quickly. Getting down to 20 overnight.
Sunday 1/19 and Monday 1/20 will be sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s, lows in the upper teens.
Some ice and snow possible for Tuesday 1/21. Also looking at Saturday 1/25 into Sunday 1/26 for a moderate snowfall. And the first week of February looks active, winter-weather-wise.
Stay tuned for updates!