Spring tease will end today. Snow coming. (Sorry.)
Actual David Hasselhoff quote, proving definitively why he is beyond reproach and above (below?) antiquated notions of "talent" and "success."The mild weekend continues (high in the 50s today). Sunshine and whatnot. Melting. The news had pictures of crews taking advantage in the lull to fill potholes. (I didn't actually see anyone doing that in Reading, and the Penn Street Bridge continues to be an obstacle course of yawning potholes that look as if they could swallow an entire car. But I digress.)
Temperatures will fall through the 40s this evening as a cold front approaches. It will get cloudy, too. Rain and drizzle will begin by 8 or 9pm, then mix with (and change over to) wet snow overnight. I expect the snow to fall between about 10pm and 4am, leaving us a coating to an inch generally. Since we'll be below freezing for the morning commute, slickness is possible.
Possibility of delay Monday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Monday, 8%
Monday turns out mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. High of 34 will feel like the low 20s due to wind. Low 24.
Tuesday looks cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. This is a light disturbance with minimal moisture, so I don't expect accumulation, but remember that any snowfall can cause temporary driving issues.
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 14%
Another system may (or may not) hit us Tuesday night into Wednesday. I think we get hit. It's a little early for amounts, but that's what I do, so here: 2-4 inches.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Wednesday's high will be 28, so this will be all snow. Overnight low, 11.
Thursday will be similar to Monday: intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, high at or just above freezing.
Chance of delay Thursday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 2.995%
Cold on Friday: high of only 27.
Sun and clouds over the weekend with some widely scattered snow showers possible on Saturday. Highs in the mid 30s, lows around 20.
Next week brings another chance of snow (March 3-4) but that looks light.
And then temperatures moderate, reaching levels typical for this time of year: highs in the upper 40s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Updated thinking on the freezing rain event - 2/19
So a couple of things have changed: temperatures will be colder and the solution looks a bit juicier. Surface temperatures won't rise above freezing until about 9am on Wednesday, and the precipitation will start around 7am, so it appears that there will be a brief period of freezing rain.
(This is just for Berks/Lehigh and points north and west. Lancaster, Chester, Philly, Delaware County, South Jersey - this will just be a bit of plain rain.)
It's going to get down into the mid 20s overnight, so the potential for slippery roadways/sidewalks is going to be greatest between 7am and 9 or 10am.
New school percentages:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 60%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 21.775%
Also: thanks to several of my readers who added snow-driving peeves of their own. Robin ranted about the snow mounds at every intersection, particularly in residential areas. A motorist driving a regular-height car cannot see around them, and so must make his or her peace with death before entering blindly into the roadway. Other folks were talking about the insidious narrowing of the streets, and the fact that passing another car on the street is now a nail-biting proposition.
Still haven't heard from any plowers/salters/road crews/township maintenance types/Penndot workers about why the roads are so persistently and pervasively shitful. Talk to me!
And be sure to forward your driving/weather complaints/grievances to me as well...
I am going to collapse into bed now and cough and sniffle until I fall asleep.
Is there anything to worry about for tomorrow?
Weather-wise, no. Small chance of freezing drizzle or fog. But we'll probably just see some light rain showers and drizzle/mist in the morning. Wednesday will turn out partly sunny and milder with a high of 44.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 1.75%
Same temperatures with a few late showers on Thursday.
Breezy and milder (high 52) with occasional showers on Friday.
Cooler over the weekend with highs in the mid 40s (Saturday) and the lows 40s (Sunday). Mostly sunny and breezy.
Still keeping an eye on a system that could bring us s*** next week, Monday into Tuesday. Also looking ahead to a potential snowstorm on March 2/3.
Moving on, though.
I have noticed, in my travels around this area, that many roads are a screaming shit show of slush and ice and compacted snow. In residential and semi-rural areas, lots of people report that the roads have not been plowed or treated at all ("I haven't seen a plow in nine days," said one source, who shall be kept anonymous). Parking lots are rife with ice patches and sadness. And the potholes. Oh, the potholes! They are especially rutty and haphazardly distributed across the roadway this season.
I don't want to accuse municipal/township workers of failing to do their jobs here. So I will just put it as a question: could we be doing better? Is there any reason why the roads and lots cannot be clearer? Must I feel like I have dodged death each time I make it safely to any destination? If you are (or know) a plow driver or salter, or whatever, I would appreciate some clarification...
*sighhhhh*
I really look forward to the time when I can send you people a forecast that features no mention of the word "snow."
Unfortunately, I will have to keep waiting.
Here's what to expect:
Today will start sunny, but cloud up later in the afternoon ahead of a small disturbance. We could see a flurry or a couple of light snow showers late this afternoon into this evening. No accumulation. Breezy all day and night. High 29, low 8.
Before I talk about the snow, let me just say a few words about the road conditions that persist several days after the Nor'easter and a day after the nuisance snowfall. And those few words are: they are shitty. The main routes and highways tend to be just wet, but the secondary roads are snow-covered and slick in spots. And in the city, people are getting stuck all over the place, or just leaving their parked cars along the road, piled with snow and plowed in to the max, like silent winter weather totems. People who are trying to get their street-parked cars out are shoveling the snow into the street, which is one of my favorite things ever. Or parking at crazy angles. Winter driving in town is maddening and chaotic.
Like this.
Alright, so I just needed to share that - not only to vent, but to note that we've already got a shit-ton of snow, and the roads are compromised, so even a little bit of snow has the potential to hamper travel.
Monday will have clouds mixed with sun and a high of 30. Snow arrives by midnight (late Monday night) and continues throughout the early morning hours of Tuesday, tapering by about 9am and ending outright by noon. (We could see some lingering afternoon flurries, but this is a fast-moving storm with a limited amount of moisture, so it'll scoot through.)
Accumulations in the range of 2-4 inches.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 75%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 60%
High Tuesday 36, low 28.
Wednesday looks overcast and breezy with the chance of an early shower, but warmer: high 44, low 30.
Thursday is overcast again, and rain/drizzle/mist could fall at any time. Still mild: high 45, low 34.
Friday looks cloudy and breezy with a bit of early-morning rain or drizzle. High 51, low 32.
The weekend will be rainy and mild: highs in the mid 40s, lows in the low to mid 30s.
Next week (the week of Monday 2/24) begins colder with a chance of snow, but it's early yet, so let's just skip over that. Cold generally that week with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, but sunny most days.
And then the following weekend (the first two days of March) look positively balmy: highs in the 50s with soul-nourishing sunshine.
Stay tuned for updates!
P.S. If you haven't seen this video - and oldie but goodie, internet-wise - you've got to see it. Warning: there is A LOT of profanity in this video. A LOT.
An update on the February 18th storm - my current thinking as of 9pm Monday:
Snow begins about 2-3am Tuesday. Heaviest snow is 4am-8am. Snow tapers and ends by 10am.
I continue to believe that accumulations will be in the 2-4 inch range.
Getting above freezing by noon; high 37. Afternoon and evening will be windy with clearing skies.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 60%
There's a small chance we'll have some icing on Wednesday morning if the rain arrives before it warms up. But I think that's a relatively minor chance. Let's just move on.
40s on Wednesday and Thursday, 50s on Friday. Rainy on Wednesday and Friday. Friday may bring flooding with the rainfall and snowmelt, so awesome.
Colder thereafter. Highs in the 30s next week.
Here's the Doppler:
There's just so god damned much snow.
What a storm. A foot on Thursday morning, then a thundersnow-laden blizzard on the back end.
The numbers are staggering: 20.5" in Birdsboro, 18" in Mertztown, 20.3" in Bethlehem, 18.5" in Gouglersville, 19.5" in North Jersey, 20.2" in Honey Brook, 18.8" here in Reading. Most of the area fell between 12 and 18 inches of snow.
In meteorology (even among hobbyists), there is a tendency to overquantify. To get all number-nerdy and focus on the pressure readings, the temperature gradients, the snowfall totals, the QPF.
But--not to get too philosophical here--this storm is one that reminded me why I am so drawn to forecasting the weather. Numbers are important in forecasting (as in life), but there's the unquantifiable element: the power of nature to overwhelm, and to do so effortlessly.
In Lord of the Flies, a novel about boys stranded on an island, Ralph stares out to sea during a contemplative moment and is "faced by the brute obtuseness of the ocean." He's realizing (with a little "fall of the heart") that the water is going about its ebb and flow indifferently. In the same way, we scurry around trying to outsmart nature, to anticipate it, to control it, to defeat it. And nature rolls on, not to spite us, but with utter disregard of us.
Not sure why I'm in such a ruminative mood. Maybe it's just easier than worrying that the next snow-hunk that falls off our roof is going to be the one that breaks a window. Or that the next gust of wind is the one that dislodges a branch onto a power line. Or that the school year will never, ever, ever end.
There's another little storm coming tonight. I almost can't bring myself to tell you about it, but that's my "job," so here goes...
Yes, I censored the nipples. I thought it would be unfair of me to confront you with unwanted nipples when all you wanted to do was read my blog. You can't unsee things.Snow moves in for most of us about midnight or 1am (Friday/early Saturday). On and off, varying rates until about 1pm. Should only accumulate about 1-3 inches, but remember that it doesn't take much for the roads to become treacherous. I mean, after a foot and a half of snow, this seems like mere child's play. But today's 100-vehicle pileup on the PA Turnpike is a reminder that the key to driving in the snow (more than having a snow-savvy car) is slowing way down and keeping a generous following distance.
Backing things up a bit.
Today is getting up to 41 with plenty of sunshine, so the roads will get better and better as the day goes on.
And then the aforementioned nuisance snow.
Cold over the weekend: high of 28 Saturday and 22 on Sunday. Low of 15 over Saturday to Sunday; 5 overnight Sunday to Monday.
And then some snow/mixed precipitation moves in for Monday night into Tuesday, so stay tuned for updates on that.
And then it gets warmer by the end of next week! I promise it does.
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Update from the dry slot!
So we got some snow.
10-12 inches in most places. 11 inches in Mount Penn, a foot in Bernville and Bowmansville, 13 inches in Reading, 13.5 in Mohnton.
A sampling of other totals from around the region: 14" in Wilmington, DE; 11-14" in north Jersey; 17" in Uwchlan Township, Chester County (site of the massive ice storm outages last week - those poor people); a foot in South Philly.
From the reports I have seen, roads aren't bad: plows have been able to do their work, most people have stayed home if possible, and there's been relatively little ice complicating matters. Secondary roads are gradually being plowed.
Now we're in the "dry slot," which is an area of little or no precipitation that forms in a Nor'easter when it starts to pull away (to the northeast, hence the name). A still radar image from 3:45pm shows this. As you can see on the image, though, there's a whole mess of precipitation that's sitting off to our west. This is called the "back end," and it will deliver another 2-4 inches of "wraparound" snow in most places. Expect this action between about 6 and 10pm.
In addition, the winds will pick up this evening and overnight, which is bad in terms of the potential for downed limbs, power outages, and whatnot.
So the storm totals for Berks are going to end up in the range of 14-18 inches generally. Which is a lot.
Temperatures will be below freezing until about noon tomorrow, after which clouds will break and we'll get up to a breezy 38.
School predictions:
Chance of delay Friday, 100%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 70%
There's also another (comparatively) little storm that will move through early Saturday morning. I think this one will slide to our south, though. The most we'll see out of this storm (which is slated to hit between 2am and 9am Saturday) is about 1-3 inches. Saturday will turn out breezy and chilly (high 31) with plenty of afternoon sunshine.
Sunday is colder still. High 28, then getting down to 5 overnight.
Some ice is possible late Monday into Tuesday morning, so we could see a delay (but not likely a cancellation) out of that.
And then it warms up. Highs in the 40s on Tuesday 2/18 and Wednesday 2/19; highs in the 50s for the remainder of the week. I mean, the end of the week looks rainy, but I think that's not going to bother anyone. Just no more snow, you are saying. I hear you, I am typing.
A bit cooler the following week, but nothing else winter-weather-wise looms. I really believe that, and I really, really want that to be true. So it is both true (based on my forecasting) and my fondest wish.
Stay tuned for updates! And be sure to send me your snow totals, power outages, and road conditions!
This son of a bitching storm.
My snow-weary readers,
I wish I could tell you that this storm has changed its track dramatically and now it will be just a flurry or a wisp of drizzle. I wish I could tell you that we won't have 30mph winds and heavy, wet snow that will bring down trees and power lines. I wish I could tell you that we won't get 12-16 inches of wind-driven, crippling snow. And I really wish I could tell you that there's not another storm looming for Monday into Tuesday that promises snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
I wish.
David Hasselhoff takes his pants off.The first flakes will start falling by midnight Wednesday, but it won't really get cranked up until 2 or 3am. Then it snows heavily for the next 14 hours. And the wind speed increases during that time. Tapering begins by about 7pm Thursday, then ends by 1 or 2am late Thursday night/Friday morning. There could be a bit of mixing (especially points south and east of Berks), but this is primarily a wet snow event. Windy and nasty.
Snow totals:
Berks, Lancaster, Allentown, Poconos, extreme North Jersey, 12-16 inches, all snow.
Philadelphia's suburbs, 10-14 inches, maybe a little bit of mixing.
Philadelphia, central Jersey, NYC, 8-12 inches, some mixing in the afternoon.
South Jersey and Delaware, 4-8 inches generally, with plenty of mixing.
Watch for beach erosion and high winds (and waves and all that) along the NJ and Delaware coasts.
Schools:
Chance of delay Thursday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 99.6%
Chance of delay Friday, 92%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 70%
Temperatures remain steady in the upper 20s/low 30s throughout the storm.
Trivia: The Weather Channel has named this Winter Storm Pax, which is Latin for peace, which no it's not peaceful. It's a vicious, crippling winter storm and Pax is a dumb name for any winter storm. Is my sputtering rage at The Weather Channel's alarmist buffoonery coming through?
Depressed again. Here's a video of an orangutan and a dog that are BFFs.
Stay tuned for updates.
Thursday update: major winter storm
Regarding Thursday's storm: there's still plenty of uncertainty in terms of track, precipitation type, and timing. But here's what I see...
Snow begins overnight Wednesday into Thursday (around 10pm Wednesday). Snow continues Thursday, varying in intensity. Thursday morning, Thursday afternoon, Thursday evening, Thursday night. Snow, snow, snow, snow. Snow ends by 3 or 4am Friday.
Amount - right now, it looks like we're in the bull's eye for 12-16 inches of snow. That could be less if precipitation type mixes or track changes. But right now I'm thinking:
Chance of delay Thursday, 25%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 85%
Chance of delay Friday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 65%
Leading to that storm, we'll see some frigid-assed weather. Low tonight down to 10. Tuesday's high, 25; low all the way down to 4. Wednesday's high, 25 again; low, 12.
This is a really depressing forecast, so here's this:
Stay tuned for updates!