Snow chances Sunday night to Monday
Bjerknes. He looks learned, to be sure, but he also seems to have a chip on his shoulder. Like, if he had to throw down, he could. He'd much rather discuss mathematics and whatnot, but if a fool is angling for an ass-whooping, he could apply it. Say something else, punk. I will slap you up one fjord and down the other.Happy Friday, Happy Pi Day, and Happy Birthday to Vilhelm Bjerknes, a Norwegian physicist and meteorologist whose work provided the basis for modern forecast models. He was born 152 years ago today. (He is dead.)
Speaking of forecasting...
Models are picking up a system moving through here on Sunday night into Monday. For a while it looked as if the track would be farther south and the solution would be warmer. Trends are shifting and evidence is mixed, but I am staying with a minor event for most of our region.
Breezy and milder today with a high of 54. Variable cloudiness will thicken late as a few widely scattered showers move through. (These are rain showers, though. The low will only be 38 overnight.)
Saturday could start with a scattered shower or two, but clear later. High 55, low 42.
Variably cloudy and colder on Sunday with a high of only 38. We'll have a few snow showers late Sunday night (after 9 or 10) overnight into Monday morning. Some forecast models suggest a moderate snowfall from this - in the range of 3-5 inches generally. I think this storm has too much going against it (time of year, sun angle, location, blocking potential), so my call is a coating to an inch.
School impacts:
Chance of delay Monday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
The high on Monday only gets up to 32. Overnight low 23.
Then Tuesday is milder with highs in the 40s, which is where our highs will be throughout next week.
By next weekend we'll see highs in the 60s, then moderating to highs in the 50s the following week.
I know I usually end a forecast with "stay tuned for updates," but that's especially vital here. If I change my thinking as newer models come in, I will post here and on my Facebook page.
Stay tuned for updates!
If you haven't had a DUI, you are being ripped off by not using this ridiculously easy trick!
Trying to drum up traffic to the site by using a favorite spam come-on: I am not beneath that.
What to expect today and tomorrow:
Scattered showers from mid-morning Wednesday through mid-afternoon. Thunderstorms possible late afternoon and early evening (5 to 7, roughly). Not everyone will see them, but those who do will see high winds and heavy rain (but not a whole lot of lightning).
The temperature will rise to about 50 in the late afternoon, then tumble through the 40s starting around 6pm, then through the 30s by 9pm, and into the 20s by midnight. And into the teens by the Thursday morning commute!
The mystified Hoff. "What ... the ... Hoff ... is that?"High on Thursday will be 26. Low in the upper teens.
Precipitation will be rain, perhaps mixed with a little snow or sleet at the end, but accumulations will be a coating at the most.
The two most significant issues will be "flash freezing" and "wind."
"Flash freezing" is a colloquial weather term that refers to rapidly dropping temperatures. The cold front that moves through will drop temperatures from 52 at 6pm Wednesday to 18 at 6am Thursday - a drop of 34 degrees in 12 hours - which qualifies. That could freeze up everything that's left on the roads from the rain, causing travel issues.
And gusty winds will howl overnight: 30-35mph sustained with gusts near 50mph.
So:
Chance of delay Thursday, 38%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 9%
Seasonably milder on Friday and for the weekend: highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Slight chance of snow showers Sunday night and Monday morning. No accumulation.
Stay tuned for updates!
The Wednesday-Thursday mess. And is that it?
It's certainly going to feel like spring has arrived during the first half of this week.
The second half of the week, not so much.
Here's the forecast.
Partly sunny, breezy, and milder on Monday with highs getting into the lower 50s. Overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Tuesday is gorgeous: partly sunny, breezy, and unseasonably warm. High about 60. Again, only in the mid 30s overnight.
Wednesday is when we get a little reminder that winter isn't quite finished with us yet. Earlier indications were that we'd have a potentially major snowstorm with high accumulations, but the solution now suggests a milder storm: chilly with rain throughout the day, especially in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 40s, so I don't expect any issues with ice/sleet/snow.
How does he keep finding different pictures of David Hasselhoff to include in his forecasts? Understand this: the supply of David Hasselhoff pictures on the internets is endless. As is my objectless tenacity at finding them. Also, the Troubadour of Charm City has never met a camera he doesn't like. He will pose literally anywhere, for anyone, at any time. So fear not: Hasselhoff is the gift that keeps on giving. Forever.
A cold front will move in behind the moisture, so temperatures will plummet below freezing by midnight and stay in the 20s for the rest of the day Thursday. Mixing will depend on how much moisture is left when temperatures fall; right now, I'd say not much. Maybe a bit of icing on Thursday morning to watch out for.
The big issue is going to be how much colder it is, and it will feel ever colder than that. (Thursday will be clearing, cold, and windy, with wind chills in the middle teens.) Overnight low will be 15.
School issues:
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 17%
Chance of delay Thursday, 36.433%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 3.14%
Alright, but then surely we're finished with having to worry about winter and cancellations and crap? No, my good people.
The weekend is nice: highs in the upper 40s and low 50s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Overnight lows right around freezing. Maybe a few rain showers on Saturday 3/15 (the Ides of March!), but far from a washout.
Next Monday evening into Tuesday, it will get colder, and there is the chance for a snowstorm. That's over a week away, so we'll just leave it at that.
Thursday 3/20 is the first day of spring, but Mother Nature is going to be all, like, winter's over when I say it's over, suckas. That day looks sunny and windy with a high of only 40.
Stay tuned for updates!
[The video below is a tour de Hoff from his latest album. Penned by David, aka the German Neil Diamond. Finally, I am not TheHoffFan72. Honestly.]
Post-storm analysis; looking ahead
So ... we only got a dusting to an inch of snow, and much of Sunday night (which I had predicted would be rife with windswept snow) was dry. Even areas south of us didn't get the double-digit accumulations that had been expected with this storm. (Manahawkin, New Jersey--whose name is Lenape for fertile, sloping land--picked up 6.1 inches; Monroeville, New Jersey--named after the town's founder and hog-calling champion Sebastian "Soo-wee" Monroe--got 5.3 inches.)
That last thing was made up. I am not sorry.
So what happened? As I told one colleague before I was truly awake this morning (and obviously, before I could choose my words with more discretion): The storm just went down on us.
I will move on without further comment.
David Hasselhoff, trendsetter and visionary, with a cellular phone in a scene from 1989's Bail Out.Despite the relatively minor accumulation, there were a lot of travel issues this morning, particularly in the Philly area and points south and east, where there was a layer of ice hidden under the snow-covered roadways. (There was more rain and sleet there, so that's why the icing happened.) Lots of spin-outs and whatnot. Please slow down, people.
It's very cold today. 18 balmy degrees in the middle of the afternoon. Overnight (early Tuesday morning) it's going to be -2. So that's 20 degrees colder than it is right now. (Math friends, are you impressed? I did that in my head.) Considering the extreme cold and the residual slipperiness, a delay tomorrow would be reasonable.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 52.985%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 8.143%
Getting up to 25 on Tuesday and just above freezing on Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday we could see some snow showers, but, like my Uncle Harry, these will not amount to anything.
Into the upper 30s on Thursday, 40s on Friday, and pushing 50 by Saturday. Then, colder again. I am keeping an eye on potential ice/snow events for Wednesday 3/12 and Monday 3/17. But you know what? Let's just bask in the mercy that Mother Nature has shown us by making the last storm a "miss."
Stay tuned for updates!
The final call.
Not The Final Call, the official newspaper of the Nation of Islam.
The final call, as in my latest thinking about the upcoming storm.
It's a complex and rapidly changing storm, and one that has been problematic for the forecast models.
That's meteorological jargon for "we don't have the faintest g.d. idea about what is going to happen."
But I shall try! It is what I do.
The "bull's eye" (area of heaviest snow) appears to be West Virginia, the upper hump of Virginia, DC and Maryland. And maybe South Jersey. That's in the 8-10 inch range still, and maybe a foot or more in isolated areas.
Philly, Lancaster, Chesco, and Delco look to be just north of this bull's eye, so that would put them in the 4-6 inch range.
Allentown is in the 2-4 inch range.
Reading and Berks are in an interesting position with this storm: I believe the "cutoff" that separates half a foot from 2 or 3 inches will run through Berks. It's impossible to be precise yet, but I would surmise that southern Berks (Gouglersville, Mohnton, Shi-town, Morgantown) will be in the 4-6 inch range, while northern Berks (Temple, Kutztown, Hamburg, Fleetwood) will be in the 2-4 inch range.
There have been (and there will be) other entries in the category I would like to christen the Man Meat Mullet: Chuck Norris, John Stamos circa "Full House," Simon Le Bon, Billy Ray Cyrus, Mario Lopez circa "Saved by the Bell." But no one has ever imbued that most ill-advised of hairstyles with as much je ne sais quois, as much raw sensuality, as much elegance, as The Hoff. NO ONE.Macungie will be in the 2-4 range. (I don't know anyone who lives in this Lehigh County borough, I don't think, but I visited there as a child and love the name. It derives from the Lenape word maguntshe, or "bear swamp." This etymology sounds like something I would make up and try to convince people of its authenticity, but not this time.)
Hampomoxin will be in the 4-6 range. (This is a little burgh outside Philadelphia whose name derives from Hamphomoccaxii, a word the Delaware people had that loosely translates to "the white man wears shoes made of lies.")
Now, see, that one was made up. There's no place called Hampomoxin. But the Macungie action is right on.
Where was I? Ah yes, the weather.
We'll see light rain and snow showers beginning by late this afternoon. Snow falls more steadily by 9 or 10pm. The bulk of the snow (such as it is for Berks) will fall overnight, and snow will be intermittent. It will end by about 9 or 10am Monday.
Here's the thing, though: the air behind this system is REALLY cold. Like, ass-cold. Monday morning at 7am it will be 16 degrees. Overnight from Monday into Tuesday, the temperature will drop to -2. Negative two! So right now it's 38 degrees. 40 degrees colder than that.
In fact, we won't get back up above freezing again until Friday afternoon. I don't see any more snow, really. Maybe a little bit on Saturday the 8th, but no big deal.
Oh! Updated school closing information for Berks:
Chance of delay Monday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 65%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 13.242%
Stay tuned throughout the storm for updates...
The latest on 3/3 snow.
An image from the latest GFS run.Some model runs are shifting the storm southward, but there are many factors that make this difficult for the models to handle - the time of year, the warm air from the south, and the alpha stream, to name three.
There is no alpha stream. I totally made that up.
The point is that I could get into a bunch of meteorological jargon and bore the living scheisse out of you, but I think most of you would like me to just tell you what I think will happen. So here goes.
By about just after noon Sunday, we'll start seeing some light snow showers/flurries/sleet moving in to the area. On and off with this through the afternoon and early evening. I think roads are fine during this bit, with just a few slippery spots here and there.
David "Helloooo ladies, says my chest fur" HasselhoffBy 6 or 7pm Sunday, we'll see steadier snow, intensifying overnight. Tapers in the early afternoon Monday.
I see mixed precipitation on Sunday, but all snow for Monday.
How much?
Lehigh Valley, Berks, central and northern New Jersey, NYC: 4-6 inches with minimal icing.
Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Lancaster Counties: 6-8 inches and a little bit of icing.
Philadelphia, Wilmington (DE), South Jersey: 10-14 inches of snow. In some places, more. And enough mixing that power outages look likely.
West Virginia, northern Virginia, DC, southern Maryland: 6-8 inches of snow and significant icing.
Updated school closing percentages (for Berks only):
Monday delay, 35%
Monday cancellation, 85%
Tuesday delay, 70%
Tuesday cancellation, 38%
And hey, good news! Thursday-Friday now looks like it might be a miss. Might.
Stay tuned for updates! I plan on sending out a thinger on Sunday to reflect the changing realities. Of the situation. You know what I mean.
David Hasselhoff, master of action sequences.
Monsoon's first call on Monday 3/3 storm
But there's this, so it's OK.First, the cold. Low gets down to about 5 overnight into Friday morning. Windy as balls tonight, too.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a couple of light afternoon snow showers possible. High 33. No accumulation.
Sunday will be cloudy and cold with some flurries possible in the afternoon. The storm starts Sunday evening and continues to Monday night. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s for the duration of the storm, so I see a little mixing, but mainly snow. Windy, too, again, just for shits and giggles.
Timing is hard to pin down right now, but I'd say it snows from 9pm Sunday to 8pm Monday, with some flurries and light snow showers lingering in to Tuesday morning. I see accumulations of 8-10 inches. No school Monday and delay Tuesday.
Behind the storm, believe it or not, is a blast of cold air again. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will only get up to the mid to upper 20s.
And Thursday brings another potential snowstorm. Maybe a 4-6 incher. I know. I passed incredulous about 4 storms ago. I have bypassed indignant, too. Now I suppose I am wallowing in exhausted bewilderment.
Friday and Saturday look overcast but milder with highs well into the 40s. And beyond that, I see nothing. I don't mean no snow, I mean nothing. You heard it here first: the world is ending at midnight on Saturday, March 8th, 2014.
Stay tuned for updates!
Hasselhoff - en svensk talkshow
That means "Hasselhoff - a Swedish talk show." In a truly inexplicable development, and one about which I'm not entirely sure how to feel, David Hasselhoff is hosting a late night talk show in Sweden. It premiered today.
The show is filmed in Sweden. Its ads are in Swedish. On the show, Hasselhoff interviews Swedish celebrities. And the whole show is conducted in English. Hasselhoff does not speak Swedish, except in a few crowd-pleasing phrases he's picked up. He has a house band, called Emma and the Hoff-beats. Emma is a skinny little miniskirted bit of Swedish sex appeal who plays the saxophone and engages in awkward banter with The Hoff.
In the first several minutes, he makes several Baywatch and Knight Rider references (both visual and verbal), speaks of himself in the third person, and deeply insults the entire nation of Sweden. Here is an intro called “Snow Watch”:
It is almost futile to go on with the weather (or, indeed, with one's daily life) in light of this seismic development. But:
A few flurries and/or light snow showers on Tuesday, late morning and early afternoon. Amounts to nothing. Breezy with clouds dominating the brave, o'er-hanging firmament. High 32, low 21.
Light snow possible on Wednesday, anytime between 1am and noon. Accumulation of an inch or two at most. Cold day with high of 28 and a low of 8.
Wait. Am I on glue, or does David Hasselhoff now have his own Swedish talk show? He does. OK.
That's Laila, a Swedish celebrity, there on the right. And the Hoff. The name in lights is neat, but I noticed that when he sits down to interview a Swedish celebrity, the camera shows only a portion of the backdrop, and it reads ASS. Not quite well-thought-out, maybe.
School issues:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 4%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 1.923%
Thursday will be cold again. More sunshine, but still cold. Hey, Mother Nature, are you aware that it's a few days until the end of February? Because damn. High 31, low 8.
Friday will be even colder. High of only 26. Son of a brrr.
Saturday brings another chance for some snow. Just some snow showers, though. High 33.
Sunday looks sunny and cold. High 34.
Monday, March 3rd brings snow. This looks like a surer bet, but it's almost a full week away, so we'll see what it looks like by the end of this week. But probably snow.
Cold the rest of the week, too. Below normal, for sure. Another snowstorm on March 10th? Can't be. Might be, though. May be.
Stay tuned for updates!