Post-storm concerns: flash freezing, flooding, slickness
First, the roads are crap: slushy and gross. And the snow is preventing drainage, so the rain will create ponding on roadways and isolated flooding.
And then the flash freeze (which is not "Freeze Frame" by J. Geils Band, though now that song is in your head).
Temperatures will begin falling from 36 around 1pm to 28 by 3pm ... to 20 by 6pm (sunset at 5:23pm will hurry along this precipitous drop) ... to 10 by Tuesday morning’s commute.
Untreated surfaces (like certain parking lots I schlopped through this morning) will have lots of ponding and slick surfaces due to rapid freezing. Use caution when driving this evening and tomorrow morning.
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 9.3%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 63.33%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.55%
Wednesday night into Thursday – some models see a storm but right now it’s just looking like flurries or light snow showers.
Something maybe on Sunday 2/8.
Stay tuned for updates...
Winter Storm Ψ: Sunday update!
The folks over at The Weather Channel have dubbed this Winter Storm Linus, which has headline writers in the midwest unable to resist such allusive puns as "Linus Blankets Detroit" and "Good Grief!" et al. I love a good play on words, so I consider this a bit of a missed opportunity.
But I shall soldier on with Winter Storm Ψ.
For us in Berks, some outlets are backing off their original forecasts, but I think a downgrade is premature at this point. Perhaps some forecasters are gunshy because of last weekend's blown forecast. Perhaps some forecasters should change their draws and cry for they mommies.
I see 4-6 inches for us in Berks and the Lehigh Valley. Light snow has begun (as of 5pm here in Berks) and will intensify overnight. We'll see a little freezing rain and sleet mix in overnight (between 2 and 8am, off and on), then temperatures will plummet. From a noontime high of 35 we'll plunge to near 20 by 6pm and to the single digits by daybreak on Tuesday.
For Philly, Chester and Delaware Counties, south Jersey and Delaware (the actual state), look for accumulations in the range of 1-2 inches and more freezing rain and plain rain than actual snow.
Look at this beauty. (It's the radar.)
So my predictions for school in Berks tomorrow:
Chance of delay, 60.01%
Chance of cancellation, 81.79%
Stay tuned for updates!
Winter Storm Ψ: Saturday update!
So there are some variables at play with Winter Storm Ψ (pronounced psai, rhymes with "high" - you do pronounce the "p," but don't be obnoxious about it. Just a little hint of it. The faintest whiff of p. Wait, no.), including warmer air that may mix in aloft. Who gets all snow, and who gets snow-rain-snow? And who gets nothing? And what is a rhetorical question?
For Philly and the immediately northern and western suburbs, expect light snow to start by 5-6pm, then really gets going after 10pm. A bit of mixing (rain) toward the Monday AM commute, but this is not good news; rain will freeze to surfaces and actually serve to make travel even more hazardous. Precipitation transitions back to snow and tapers after noon on Monday. Accumulations for this region are 4-6 inches.
For south Jersey and Delaware, we'll see snow start about the same time as above, but the period of rain will be more extensive: about midnight to 6am. So because of this extended rain period, we'll see fewer travel delays and lower accumulations in this region (2-4 inches).
For Berks, Lehigh, and Schuylkill Counties--as well as much of north Jersey--we'll see almost all snow with a little bit of ice mixed in early Monday morning. Accumulations will be 6-8 inches (with isolated pockets getting higher amounts where heavy banding sets up).
For Punsxutawney, expect snow by the evening, with lake effect snow moving in by mid-day Sunday and continuing through Monday. Monday will begin with one disc-jockey annoying another by playing Sonny and Cher's "I Got You Babe." You will make idle chit-chat with the innkeeper, Ned Ryerson will stop you on the street, you will step in a puddle, you will make your way to Gobbler's Knob, you will drolly say, "This is one time when television really fails to capture the true excitement of a large squirrel predicting the weather." The blizzard that you predicted will miss us will actually shut down the interstate, stopping Larry, Rita, and Phil in the van. You will awaken the next day to "I Got You Babe" and do it all over again. Along the way, you'll become a piano virtuoso and ice sculptor.
Winds picking up (and temperatures dropping) throughout the day on Monday. Very windy and cold overnight from Monday into Tuesday with a low of, like, 0. (Tuesday morning commute wind chill: negative teens.)
Chance of delay Monday, 36.5%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 89.98%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 72.2%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 28.4%
It terms of future winter weather, I don't see anything potentially problematic until around mid-month.
Stay tuned for updates!
Winter Storm Ψ: Just the facts.
Ψ is the Greek letter "psi," the 23rd letter of the Greek alphabet. PSI (pounds per square inch) is also the unit of measurement for air pressure inside something inflated, like a football. (There is no measurement for overinflated egos.) And since the Super Bowl is the most overblown, underinflated event in our culture--matched only, perhaps, by the overhyped blizzard--it seemed apropos.
I just wanted to give you a sense of my thinking on the impending storm before the weekend; more precise timing, discussion of differences in regions, and fine-tuning will appear in updates between now and Sunday afternoon.
So here's what to expect on Sunday-Monday:
Light snow showers begin around 3-4pm Sunday. (Game time is 6:30pm EST, for your reference.) Steadier snow by 7 or 8pm. Snow continues overnight into Monday, beginning to taper off by about 3pm Monday.
Accumulations will generally be in the range of 6-8 inches.
Tuesday won't have any snow, but temperatures overnight from Monday into Tuesday will be the coldest of the season: lows around 0.
So my early calls for school percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 31.4%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 88.8%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 62.1%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 21.7%
Stay tuned for updates!
A quick one about a quick one
I don't know these people--but I want to.The clipper: flurries / light snow showers could start as early as 3 or 4pm, but the snow won't begin in earnest until about 7 or 8pm or later. Snow off and on at night and overnight. Three-quarters of an inch to an inch and seven-eighths of total accumulation. Snow tapers by 4 or 5am.
Travel impacts will generally be minor, but tomorrow morning's commute could be a bit sketchy. Temps will be in the upper 20s, winds will be kicking up, there will be a bit of blowing snow, and wind chills will be in the teens.
Chance of delay Friday, 37.7%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 16.443%
Friday will turn out overcast and colder with highs in the upper 20s and overnight lows in the single digits (with wind chills below zero).
High on Saturday will only be 22. Sunday will be just as cold with a chance of snow Sunday evening into Monday morning. (More to come on that system, but right now I think it plays as a 3-4 inch event that delays schools on Monday.)
Even colder after that: high only in the teens on Monday and Tuesday, and it stays below freezing for the rest of next week.
Stay tuned for updates!
What else is there to do?
"Your forecast was off by thiiiiiiiis much."In the face of a major bust, I could throw myself at your mercy or use vaguely ribald terms like "dry slot" and "moisture cutoff," but instead I will just move ahead.
What else is there to do? I am a (pretend) meteorologist. So allow me to meteorologize.
First, it's cold as balls outside. That much is plain to anyone who has ventured out this evening. To quantify it: we're at 22 degrees right now. It will get down to 12 (twelve! a single-syllable number) overnight. Wind chills will be below zero even through Wednesday morning's commute.
On Wednesday, it will only get up to 27, with wind chills in the teens.
Yes, it's been a two-Hoff kind of day. Go ahead, judge me.Thursday brings a chance of snow, thanks to another clipper. Expect snow to start 4 or 5pm Thursday and continue intermittently overnight and into the wee hours of Friday morning (maybe 2 or 3am). Snow will be light and will accumulate only an inch or two, but we could see a delay out of it.
Chance of early dismissal Thursday, 17.98%
Chance of delay Friday, 32.9%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 11.1%
Colder toward the weekend. Very windy on Friday with a high of 31. Even colder on Saturday (high of 22) and Sunday (high of 28). Chance of snow from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, but I can't even go there yet. Like, emotionally. I will begin to look more seriously at it on Thursday. (I am looking forward to using the Super Bowl as a springboard for storm name, if it turns out to be anything.)
Looking ahead, Thursday 2/5 and Friday 2/6 look potentially winter weathery.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monday mid-afternoon update
It's time for "nowcasting," which is a fairly recent meteorological term and a pretty juicy paradox. Basically, it means, describing what is happening and just about to happen, but using weathery, sciencey terms to sound like we knew it all along.
So, to nowcast: The blizzard is trending east, which means less snow for us in Berks.
Still looking at quite a lot of snow for NYC, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire: more than two feet in some places within that range. (The record set in the blizzard of 1947, which dropped 26.4 inches on Central Park, may be challenged.)
Melancholy Hoff.North Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, suburban New York, and into Maine will see 12-16 inches.
Philly and south Jersey look to be in the 8-10 inch range.
The immediate suburbs (Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties) look to be in the 4-6 inch range.
And then it drops off. It's not clear where the boundary will set up, but it appears to be in western Delaware County in a longitudinal line (that's running north and south) from that point. Everything to the east of that boundary will get 4-6 inches. Everything to the west will get an inch or two at most.
So that puts the Lehigh Valley, Berks and Lancaster Counties, and even Chester County in the little-or-no-snow category.
For us, blowing/drifting will be concerns, so a delay is still likely--but an outright snow day Tuesday is looking less likely.
So, updated percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Of course, I will continue to monitor the situation closely and will keep you posted on any changes...
Stay tuned for updates!
Sunday morning update on Mon-Tue!
Right into it, then.
The clipper gives us 3-4 inches of snow. We may see some flurries/light snow showers late Sunday night (9-10pm) but the snow doesn't begin in earnest until the overnight hours (maybe 1-2am). Snow continues on and off through mid to late Monday afternoon, when there should be a break in the precipitation.
Then around 6-8pm Monday, we'll see the Nor'easter crank up. Current guidance suggests that the most dire impacts will be in north Jersey, NYC, and New England, where more than a foot of wind-driven snow is likely. Philly, South Jersey, Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery Counties will get an additional 6-8 inches of accumulation, giving them 9-12 between late Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon.
A message brought to you by your local grocer.In Berks and Lancaster Counties, we appear to be toward the outskirts of this storm, so we're not looking at a direct hit. But we can still expect an additional 4-6 inches, so the storm total (from late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon) is 6-10 inches.
In all the areas affected by the storm--from Bally to Bridesburg to Burlington to Brooklyn to Boston to Bangor--expect blizzard or near-blizzard conditions: wind-driven snow, lots of drifting, low visibilities, and some power outages. It will cold as well: high Monday of 27; high Tuesday of 23. Still windy and cold on Wednesday, but sunny.
And then we're watching something for Friday 1/30.
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 94%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 78%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 55%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 70%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 24%
Stay tuned for updates!