The finale of the winter.
Sloppy, icy, sleety mess out there. After midnight, surface temperatures rise above freezing and this all turns to plain rain. Still a little slickness possible through the morning commute because of how cold the ground is and whatnot. But then the rest of Wednesday is just light to moderate rainfall and temperatures reaching 40.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 6%
And then by maybe 8 or 9pm Wednesday, precipitation begins to mix with (and then change over to) sleet. After midnight, the sleet mixes with (and then changes to) snow. Snow continues throughout Thursday morning, tapers by noon, and ends by 2pm.
In Berks, we get 4-6 inches of accumulation. I think the bigger totals stay south of us - Delaware, Maryland, and South Jersey look to get 10 inches.
Chance of delay Thursday, 82%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 71%
Temperatures plummet throughout the day Thursday and reach all the way down to 6 early Friday morning, and then only getting up to 26 on Friday.
Chance of delay Friday, 32%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 4%
Saturday is upper 30s, and then Sunday temperatures are in the 40s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Wintry action this week, then it ends. I promise.
Monsoon is ill. The ears, the throat, the nose. So this shall be brief.
On Tuesday, snow will develop by 3 or 4pm, accumulating a coating to an inch. The snow will change to sleet and freezing rain pretty quickly - maybe around 5 or 6 and then changing to plain rain by midnight. Travel in the evening (4 or 5 through 9 or 10) will be treacherous. The ground is frozen, so it'll be slick. And over the weekend, we all saw how quickly conditions can deteriorate, even with very little snow or ice.
Wednesday is rainy all day, but it's plain rain. Temperatures get up to the low 40s.
After midnight on Thursday, temperatures will plunge back below freezing. In fact, temperatures will fall through the 20s during the day and through the teens at night. And it'll be windy. Thursday morning looks snowy - probably the last of the season. Right now it looks like 3-5 inches and a probable delay.
Chance of delay Thursday, 72%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 31%
And then Friday is sunny and cold with highs around 30.
And then the weekend: highs in the low to mid 40s, sunny and clear.
Stay tuned for updates!
Last gasps of winter...
March: it comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.Right now, it is snowing. I say that as an experienced faux-meteorologist, so you can be sure it is probably true.
Wait! Now a bit of sleet is starting to mix in. That's due to warmer air aloft; it's still in the mid 20s at the surface.
The roads are horrible. I mean, people sliding all over the place, cars into embankments, that sort of thing. (Be sure to email me or visit my Facebook page to share travel conditions, snow/ice totals, and the like.)
We have a good two and a half inches out there. I think most of us will be in the range of 3-4 inches by the time all is said and done.
When will it be said and done? Shortly after midnight.
During Monday morning's commute, temperatures will be in the upper 20s, so that's still below freezing, and I expect the roads to be shitty right through mid morning on Monday. After sunrise (and as temperatures soar toward the afternoon high of 31), we'll see some melting and much improved road conditions. Skies clear by afternoon.
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 2%
Hasselhoff: he will kick you in the ass; you will be delighted and ask for an encore.Then Tuesday, surface temperatures will hover right around freezing, so the precipitation we get will be a mixy mess. Starting around 2-3pm, we'll see snow and sleet. Then freezing rain and plain rain at night.
Temperatures are in the mid 30s by Wednesday morning's commute, and will reach a high in the mid 40s by the afternoon! Then temperatures plunge once again, falling from freezing at midnight through the 20s during the day on Thursday, and finally to the upper single digits in Friday's wee hours. (Oh, and there may be some light snow showers or flurries on Thursday.)
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 18%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 34%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 3%
Only gets up to 30 on Friday.
Really nice weekend, though. Sunny, highs in the mid 40s, just fantastic.
So we'll have to deal with wintry precipitation and temperatures through this coming week, but I think it's smooth sailing come Saturday 3/7.
Stay tuned for updates!
Winter? Monsoon here. Please stop.
Spoiler alert: the two dots are the same color. It has to do with the color around it or something. Blew yo' minds!!!In honor of the goddamned color-shifting dress that mesmerized my students so maddeningly today, I have included some optical illusions herein. (Seriously, if they brought one-tenth of the ardor and critical thinking to their study of literature that they brought to bear on justifying whether they saw white/gold or blue/black, I would be as happy as a howler monkey with two figs and a wooden nickel.)
Here's what's happening with the weather.
Climatologically, it's getting on toward spring. (Meteorological winter ends on Saturday, and actual winter ends on March 20th.) So the angle of the sun's rays is becoming an issue that we must consider when forecasting.
But here's the thing: winter is not leaving.
For example, tonight it's getting down to 3, with wind chills dipping below zero.
Saturday will be sunny but cold, with a high only getting up to 26. (Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 40s.) Then it gets down to 4 on Saturday night.
Sunday will be overcast with a high of about 30. Oh, and it's going to snow. Not a whole lot, as the heavier amounts will fall well north of us. Expect scattered snow showers from about 1pm to 6pm Sunday, then a few periods of steadier snow between 6pm and 10pm. The event ends as sleet/ice between 2 and 6am. Maybe a bit of rain early Monday morning, too.
Travel impacts: Sunday night and Monday morning's commute look messy.
Chance of delay Monday, 64%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
Monday gets up to 40, but it'll be pretty windy.
Tuesday into Wednesday brings another chance for wintry weather, but right now that's looking like a wet snow-to-rain event. It's a storm that will be long in duration, but the travel impacts and accumulations will be negligible.
On Wednesday it will get up to 46! All the way to 46. And then colder, but not frigid.
High Thursday will be 40. Friday will be around the same.
The following weekend--Saturday 3/7 and Sunday 3/8--will be gorgeous: sunny with highs in the mid 40s. Yeah!!
That's it, then. I don't see any more of the pipe-bursting, battery-killing, sac-shriveling cold that has plagued us, lo these many weeks.
Stay tuned for updates!
The week ahead!
It got above freezing today! Yeah. And then tonight it's going to get really cold again. 30 by midnight, 20s overnight, middle teens by tomorrow morning's commute (wind chill, -2). Only getting up to about 20 Monday afternoon (wind chill, 2).
Chance of delay Monday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 6%
Overnight from Monday to Tuesday, we'll get down to 1. Not really windy, but still.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 36%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 4%
Tuesday only gets up to 21.
Late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, we could see some light snow showers, but nothing disruptive or notable. I mean, I just noted it, but that's it now. Move on already.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 29%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 18%
Wednesday will get above freezing.
Then Thursday, cold again. *sad face emoji*
Friday too.
A little less frigid for the weekend, but Saturday night into Sunday could bring more snow.
Stay tuned for updates!
Weekend forecast (and beyond)
Saturday will be cold to start - down to 0 overnight. The good news is that it won't be windy, and the temperature will rise steadily from that 0 to 20 by noon, 30 by midnight, and 40 by Sunday afternoon.
Then it gets really, really cold again. High on Monday is only 18, and it's windy. Low overnight from Monday to Tuesday is -1.
You know what, winter? You can go to hell.
Let me talk about the snowstorm on Saturday. Some flurries and snow showers by late Saturday morning, but the snow doesn't really get going until 2pm. Snow won't be constant, but could fall heavily at times. We will likely see some mixing (sleet) as the surface temperatures rise to and above freezing - that's 10pm to midnight Saturday night.
So I see the most hazardous travel times (the times when you don't want to go out unless you have to) as 6pm Saturday to 2am Sunday.
Some mixed snow and rain showers will continue into the overnight hours, ending by midmorning Sunday.
Accumulations will be in the 3-5 inch range, with conditions getting slushy and soppy on Sunday.
Overnight Sunday into Monday, we get down to 18, so all that rain/slush/sop will freeze. And that's bad.
Monday, as I mentioned earlier, will be cold.
You may be thinking, "What did I, your loyal reader, do to deserve this?" And I answer, "No special reason. It's just because you're you!"Tuesday too.
And then snow is still possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so that could be an issue.
It's cold the rest of the week, and then it looks like Sunday 3/1 into Monday 3/2 could bring another winter weather event.
Hey, mother ... nature, meteorological winter runs from Dec 1st through Feb 28th. So stop this shit already, huh?
Starting on Tuesday 3/3, I see an improvement: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. It will feel like a g.d. heatwave.
Preliminary percentages for next week:
Delay Monday (due to freezing), 29%
Cancellation Monday, 11%
Delay Tuesday (due to ass-coldness), 44%
Cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Delay Wednesday (due to more g.d. snow), 65%
Cancellation Wednesday, 38%
Stay tuned for updates!
Only a quick little coating.
I see a couple of quick snow showers around 9 or 10 tonight. Some areas could see heavier and steadier snow briefly, which could cause travel hazards. But just a little coating from this. Maybe 3/8 of an inch in a few places. Nothing more.
During Thursday morning's commute, it will be about 10 degrees with moderate winds, making it feel like -10. In fact, we're not going to escape the negative wind chills all day Thursday.
Chance of delay Thursday, 31%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 4%
Then Friday morning, who-wee. During the Friday morning commute, we're looking at a temperature of -3 with a wind chill of -75.
Sorry, I meant -25. At -75, you would be proper screwed, frostbite-wise, in about five minutes. At least with a wind chill of -25, you've got about 30 minutes before that shit sets in.
Negative wind chills don't leave us until late Friday afternoon--but then only briefly, as the sun will go down. Fortunately, the winds will die down, so by Saturday morning the temperature will be 5 but the wind chill will still be above zero.
Chance of delay Friday, 86%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 59%
The weekend looks all messed up. Snow Saturday afternoon mixes with rain overnight, then continues as rain on Sunday, then ends as snow Sunday night. It's off-and-on action, so I don't expect high totals or major travel issues with this. Windy and colder on Monday.
Chance of delay Monday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 17%
Looking ahead, there is a snowstorm possible on Wednesday 2/25.
Stay tuned for updates!
Gloating is poor form.
So I won't.
The big winners for this storm were parts of Delaware and South Jersey with 6-7 inches. We had 3.7 here in Reading, and some heavy bands went through Bucks and Montgomery Counties (where 5-6 inches fell). Philly got 4-5.
Here's what to expect over the next week:
First, be on the lookout for "black ice" this evening as temperatures head down into the teens. Little bit of trivia for you: the term "black ice" was coined by the first Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, Nathan Bedford Forrest, when his horse slipped on an icy patch, pitching Forrest into a briar patch.
None of that is true. (Well, the first sentence about watching for black ice tonight - that's true.) But "black ice" - I think that term came from the fact that it's a thin veneer of ice through which the macadam (usually black) can be seen.
Still, racist.
Wednesday brings us a day of increasing cloudiness with flurries or scattered light snow showers between 2pm and 9pm. A few heavier squalls (not "squaws," a derogatory term for a Native American woman) are possible, especially around 4 or 5. A squall is a period of heavy, blowy snow brought about by the invasion of cold air aloft, which is what's happening here.
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will drop from 20 around 6pm to 10 during the Thursday morning commute. Winds will also increase during that period--though we won't see the high winds we saw on Sunday. Still, wind chills on Thursday morning will dip just below zero.
Thursday will be plenty sunny but COLD as arctic balls of ... crystal ... coldness. I got nothing. High on Thursday will be 12, with wind chills in the negative single digits throughout the day.
Friday will start out so, so cold. Like, absurdly cold. We're-being-punished-for-something cold. During the Friday morning commute, the temperature will be -3 and the wind chill will be in the -25 range. I don't even know what to say anymore. Mercy...? Uncle...?
Friday then turns out to be 12 and sunny and windy and ouch.
Cold on Saturday morning again with a temperature of -1, but far less windy, so there's that.
Saturday turns out less frigid (high of 28) but snow is possible in the afternoon and evening. Not huge accumulations, but nasty in terms of travel hazards.
Snow and rain possible on Sunday, but milder (highs around 40!).
And then colder on Monday and Tuesday here we go again g.d. son of a b.
Oh! Percentages.
Chance of delay Wednesday 2/18, 21%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday 2/18, 10%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday 2/18, 22%
Chance of delay Thursday 2/19, 16%
Chance of cancellation Thursday 2/19, 7%
Chance of delay Friday 2/20, 77%
Chance of cancellation Friday 2/20, 36%
Stay tuned for updates!