Two Mid-February Jawns.
Right to it, because I'm mad late to this party.
Wait, I've got something to say first. You know how when it snows, it's harder to see? And roads get slippery? Yes? THEN WHY IN THE NAME OF HERMES' CADUCEUS DO PEOPLE STILL DRIVE SO G.D. FAST? For shit's sake, people: slow down.
This first bit is the forecast for Reading/Berks:
Snow Sunday evening, starting about 9pm. Pretty light snow overnight, wrapping up by about 6 or 7am Monday. Accumulation will be 1.65 inches. Roads will be dicey, so widespread two-hour delays are likely (and there may even be isolated closings where the snow lingers).
We could see some snow showers (mixed with sleet at times) between 11am and 7pm on Monday. Expect little or no accumulation during this period, but watch for temporarily reduced visibility and road iceification. (Yes, I just made up that word. Come at me.)
Then the more significant and disruptive storm arrives. Starts snowing in earnest around 9pm Monday night.
By Tuesday morning about 7am, there will be 3.1 inches of snow on the ground, and it will still be snowing. By about noon, expect to see the snow mix with (and briefly change over to) sleet; by mid-afternoon, it will change to all rain. But then in the evening there will likely be some sleet mixing in, and sometime late Tuesday night, it will change back to snow! And that snow doesn't end until maybe 6-7am Wednesday.
Total accumulation from this whole storm (Monday night to Wednesday morning) will be 6.3 inches, but it's the snow-packed roads, untreated surfaces, and the widespread iceification that are going to be the real disruptors here.
(The salt and brine and whatnot that were applied to various surfaces during our last spate of storms - that all washed away in the rain. So unless that solution was reapplied, don't expect to achieve any traction on said surfaces.)
Expect widespread school closings on Tuesday, and widespread two-hour delays on Wednesday.
So again: school delays likely on Monday and Wednesday; closures likely on Tuesday.
Now let's talk about the Norristown/Montco area:
Snow starts around 10-11pm Sunday night. Light snow wrapping up by about 7-8am Monday. Accumulation 1.56 inches. Dicey roads, widespread school delays (and there may even be isolated closings where the snow lingers).
Snow showers (with sleet mixed in at times) between 12 noon and 8pm on Monday. Watch out for the iceification (I made up that word in the Reading/Berks forecast, then decided to use it here again. Object to the coinage? I WILL FIGHT YOU.).
Look for the real storm to arrive (and snow to begin in earnest) by 9-10pm on Monday. By 7am Tuesday morning, there will be 2.45 inches of snow on the ground - and it will still be snowing. By noon, snow will mix with (then change over to) sleet. All rain by late afternoon and into the evening, then mixed with sleet, and then back to snow! Daaaaamn.
Snow ends by 7-8am Wednesday morning.
Total accumulation (Monday night to Wednesday morning) will be precisely 5.5 inches, but expect more disruption from the snow-packed roads, untreated surfaces, and widespread iceification.
(The salt and brine and whatnot that were applied to various surfaces during our last spate of storms - that all washed away in the rain. So unless that solution was reapplied, don't expect to achieve any traction on said surfaces.)
Expect widespread school closings on Tuesday; some two-hour delays on Wednesday.
So again: school delay likely on Monday, widespread closures on Tuesday, and some delays on Wednesday.
Update for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Reading/Berks first:
Snow starts 6-7am Tuesday. Snow is steadiest between about 10am and 4pm. All over by 7-8pm. Accumulation, 3-5 inches. Monsoon Martin's You Bet Your Asscast Guarantee©®™ - snow days for everyone!
Most treacherous travel is in the afternoon and evening.
Some leftover snow squalls on Wednesday, particularly in the afternoon. Throughout the day, temps will plunge and winds will kick up. MMYBYAG©®™ - 40% chance of delay; 5% chance of cancellation.
Low of -2 on Wednesday night, so thanks a pantload, Mother Nature.
And on Thursday it will only get up to 9 (yes, NINE) with negative wind chills. I would give it 25% for delays on Thursday.
Now Norristown/Montco:
Snow starts 9-10am Tuesday. Mixes with (and, for a time, changes to) rain in the afternoon, then changes back to snow for the period of about 6-10pm. Accumulation, 1-3 inches. Roads should be OK during the day - just slushy. But in the evening and overnight, slippy. MMYBYAG©®™ - cancellation chances are slim.
Wednesday will see snow showers and increasing winds, but little to no accumulation or travel impact. MMYBYAG©®™ - 15% chance of delay.
And on Thursday temps will be a few degrees higher than Berks, so whoop-de-frickin-doo.
Stay tuned for updates!
End of January 2019.
Here is the weather. Sunday through Sunday? Sound good? Good.
Reading/Berks weather will be presented first. [Norristown/Montco weather will be presented in brackets.]
Let's start with Sunday 1/27, shall we?
Mostly cloudy and milder, but kinda windy. So the high will be 44, but it will feel like 36. Overnight temperatures will get down to 22. [Partly to mostly cloudy. High 46, feels like 41. Overnight low 24.]
What about Monday 1/28? I will tell you.
Partly cloudy. High 35. Slight breeze. Low 25. [Mostly sunny. High 38. Slight breeze. Low 26.]
And Tuesday 1/29? Patience. Don't vex me.
Starts off cloudy and windy. Maybe a stray rain or snow shower in the afternoon. As temperatures plunge, we'll get a litta bitta snow. 1-2 inches. Nothing crazy. High 43, low 18. [Cloudy and windy with rain showers in the afternoon. Wet snow and/or rain at night. Coating to an inch. High 45, low 20.]
What about Wednesday 1/30? I will turn this car around, I shit you not.
This will be your face.
This is where it gets cold as balls. What's colder than "cold as balls"? Cold as ball. (One froze off.)
Mostly sunny and really, really cold. High 21 (feels like 6 cuzza the wind), low -2 (feels like -11, same reason). [Sunny and windy. High 25 (feels like 12), low 4 (feels like -5).]
Surely Thursday 1/31 will be more hospitable? It will not. You will very nearly freeze to death.
Sunny, windy, bitterly cold. High 15 (feels like 3), low 3 (feels like -5). [Sunny, windy, bitterly cold. High 18 (feels like 5), low 7 (feels like -2).]
Mostly sunny and breezy on Friday 2/1 (DON'T EVEN). High 20 (feels like 12), low 7 (feels like 3). [Same. High 26 (feels like 17), low 10 (feels like 7).]
But will the weekend be nicer? Stop whining.
Plenty of sunshine, highs in the upper 20s, lows in the low to mid teens. Still pretty breezy. [Samesies. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.]
It might snow on Monday 2/4. I'm on it. Will report back.
Stay tuned for updates!
Weather ruminations and forecast update
Here's the thing about the weather, and I find it both maddening and exhilarating: it does what it wants.
There are 4-5 major forecast models (and myriad lesser ones) that rely on data and algorithms and trends to develop a forecast. It should be noted that these models rarely agree, which should be a clear signal that the weather almost seems to be actively resisting being accurately predicted. Like, you think you can forecast me? Well, watch this.
In more specific terms, even with all of our technological advances and measurement tools and whatnot, forecasting certain kinds of weather still feels like--at best--a notch or two above a coin flip.
Meteorologists have gotten pretty good at predicting temperatures, pretty good at reading the isobars and isotherms, shit like that. But when it comes to any kind of precipitation, forecasting is downright hapless. And with "hyperlocal" forecasting, which purports to be able to pinpoint the exact conditions you will encounter when you step outside the door, the accuracy seems to have gotten even less reliable.
How many times have you checked the weather on your phone and it says "it's raining, you're gonna get soaked, abandon hope," but you go outside and it's not doing shit? Birds singing, blue skies, dry pavement? Idyllic as you please.
Or it says that snow will begin in 17 minutes, but it actually began about an hour ago and already stopped, and never starts up again?
As it relates to the weekend storm, various weather outlets and meteorologists (and the forecast models that, to a large extent, drive them) will tell you exactly when it's supposed to start precipitating; when it's snow, or freezing rain, or plain rain, or sleet; when the roads will be slippery. But there's so much happening in the atmosphere during a storm that this certainty is laughable. 95% of those predictions will be wrong, and the other 5% got close because a broken clock is still right twice a day, which come to think of it, is one of those rare sayings that works with us old-heads (clocks with hands) and young-uns (digital jawns) alike.
One neighborhood will get 10 inches of snow while the next one over gets 4 inches. Hamburg gets mostly rain, but Shillington gets ice and snow. Shouldn't it be the other way around?
Last thing on this: there are so many layers to the atmosphere (each one is like its own ecosystem), and so many currents and streams in that atmosphere that move warm air and cold air and tepid air hither and thither, that it's a wonder any storm forecast is ever accurate. Because really, when it comes down to it, despite the GFS, the NAM, the Euro, Siri, Alexa, Google, and your mom--we have little understanding of why things happen.
So what are you saying, Monsoon? You're not going to even try to navigate us through this meteorological minefield? You're just throwing up your hands?
Alright, so here's the forecast and I'm going to do six zones, because that's the type of magnanimous and inclusive motherfucker I am:
Philadelphia and surrounding counties: snow starts around 1pm Saturday, accumulating an inch or two. By 6 or 7pm, snow mixing with, then changing over to, rain, which continues overnight. Sleet mixes in around 7-9am, then temperatures begin their plunge, so back to snow by 10-11am. Snow tapers by mid-afternoon and is finished by 4pm. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Lehigh Valley and Berks: snow starts about 12-1pm Saturday, accumulating 2-3 inches. Snow mixes with sleet between 10pm and midnight; plain rain overnight (about 12-5), then freezing rain, sleet, and snow from 5-8, then snow from 8am-2pm Sunday. Total accumulations: 4-6 inches of snow and sleet. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Lancaster, York, and Cumberland: Snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain straight away (1pm-midnight). Plain rain overnight. Maybe a bit of snow at the end (11am-1pm Sunday). Very little if any accumulation. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon and evening, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
North Jersey and NYC: Snow arrives 3-4pm Saturday. Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain around midnight, then changes over to sleet and freezing rain. Expect 2-4 inches of snow and ice from this storm, as well as several days of travel paralysis. Oh! And power outages. A little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but nothing that will add to storm totals appreciably. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice, travel woes, stay inside).
South Jersey: this looks like an all-rain event for you lucky sons of bitches down the shore. Maybe a little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but don't you dare complain about that. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative single digits by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: maybe a little slipperiness on Sunday afternoon? Then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice).
Bucks County and central Jersey / Princeton: rain and snow start by around noon Saturday. Becomes all snow after 5 or 6pm. Then mixes with sleet 9-10pm, then after midnight it's all rain. Changing to sleet and freezing rain by 5 or 6am, then maybe a bit of snow on Sunday afternoon. Total accumulation, 2-4 inches of sleet and snow. Pretty gross, sounds like. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday evening and overnight, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Stay tuned for updates!
Snow?
First of all, I want to wish my nephew a happy birthday. He's a year old today! Love ya, Griffin.
Anywho. The scuttlebutt is that there's some snow in the forecast this weekend.
I wondered where the term "scuttlebutt" came from, and thought it had to do with coal or fireplaces (for there is mention of a "coal scuttle" in Dickens' A Christmas Carol), but I was not quite correct.
The term, nautical in origin, actually refers to a cask or barrel (a butt) of drinking water kept on the deck of a ship; this vessel had a hole (or scuttle) in its lid so that sailors could access the water. Since the sailors often exchanged gossip whilst partaking in this fresh water, the term for a rumor became scuttlebutt.
So the scuttlebutt was literally the water cooler of the 19th century.
Sailors round the scuttlebutt, portrayed as far more staid and polite than they actually likely were.And for those who are now wondering what in Dickensian hell a "coal scuttle" is, it's a bucket or pail (a scuttle) which contains a modest supply of coal for feeding a coal-fired stove or heater.
This what happens when I decide to write a forecast: I cannot simply activate the prognosticational portion of my brain without activating all of it.
The weather.
It now looks pretty certain that the snow will stay to our south, giving us just a dusting.
The deets.
Light snow moves in about 8 or 9pm Saturday. Little or no accumulation, but remember that even a dusting can cause travel woes on untreated roadways. Maybe a snow shower or two overnight and early Sunday morning, ending by 5am and accumulating a coating to seven-eighths of an inch. Lingering light snow shower through the rest of Sunday morning, but no big.
Cold. (I mean, January. Expect that shit.) Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will see highs just at or below freezing (32) and lows in the upper teens or low 20s. Calm wind, though, which will make a significant difference.
Tuesday (pronunciation in Philly and immediate suburbs: TOOZ-dee) it'll get all the way up to 40. A frickin' heat wave.
Looking at a smaller system for Wednesday night into Thursday that could give us snow and/or freezing rain.
That's all.
The last time I will have to use the "s word" for at least 6 months
A little bit of snow overnight. Not a big deal but the timing could have a (fairly minimal) impact on the Tuesday morning commute.
Here's what to expect:
Rain showers develop by 9 or 10pm. Temperatures fall through the 30s overnight.
Rain will mix with (and briefly change to) wet snow between about midnight and 7am.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 12.43%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 0.31%
High on Tuesday will get into the lower 50s.
Wednesday - sunny and mid 50s.
Thursday - showers, high in the mid 60s.
Friday and Saturday - gorgeous!! Sunny with highs in the low to mid 70s. Showers on Sunday.
But at least it's not snow, am I right? Or am I right?
April 6th and 7th update
Hey there, gang.
So recent models have trended on a southward track - which means chances for accumulating, disruptive snow in our area have drastically decreased!
First, there will be some precipitation moving through tomorrow morning that may impact the morning commute.
Mixed light snow/sleet showers will be moving through between 4-8am, which could slickify roads in some areas. I don't expect widespread issues, but it's just something to keep in mind.
Chance of cancellation Friday, 4.51%
Chance of delay Friday, 8.11%
On Saturday morning, we'll just see light wet snow showers. Some areas could see as much as an inch, but generally we'll have a coating to a half-inch on grassy areas. I don't think it'll snow steadily enough to counteract the April sun angle and coat the roads.
So your plans for Saturday should be A-OK.
(To one reader in particular: your bloody hopes have come true. 😜)
Stay tuned for updates!
April 7th snowstorm. I shit you not.
*sighhhhhhhh*
Hi.
It's windy as balls today, but you already know that. Lots of downed power lines and branches. Winds will diminish overnight.
Thursday 4/5 will be sunny and breezy (but much less windy than today). High in the mid 40s.
The Bunk = all of us.Precipitation begins early Friday - we could see a little bit of wet snow mix in between 2 and 6am Friday, but I don't think it accumulates or causes any travel disruptions.
Overcast for the majority of Friday with occasional showers, especially in the morning.
Snow develops (mixed with rain and sleet at first) early Saturday morning (around 4-6am). Snow continues throughout the rest of Saturday morning, tapering by mid-afternoon. Temperatures staying in the mid-30s throughout the day.
Timing and track are extremely important for this storm; the earlier it starts to snow, the more accumulation we'll see. I'll update the forecast on Friday.
Accumulations:
For Berks, Lancaster, Lehigh Valley, Harrisburg, and York - expect 4-6 inches.
Philly and South Jersey are going to see a lot more mixing, so some areas will just see a slushy coating and some will get as much as 2 inches.
Sunday turns out sunny with a high in the low 40s.
There's the chance of mixed precipitation on Monday into Tuesday, but it's looking like that will be mostly rain and will not be an issue travel-wise.
Stay tuned for AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ENOUGH ALREADY