Monsoon's Tuesday afternoon update...
I'm sticking with all aspects of my earlier forecast except the timing of the changeover: it appears warmer air will move into the upper levels of the atmosphere earlier, causing a sooner changeover. So it is: snow until just after midnight, when it will mix with then change over to sleet and freezing rain.
Since surface temperatures will still be below freezing when we are to commute in the morning, I think things still look favorable for a delay or cancellation.
Freezing rain may change over to all rain in the later morning and afternoon before ending as snow showers in the evening.
For Wednesday... Chance of cancellation: 75% Chance of delay: 80%
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's Final Call
Alright, here’s the final call for this storm.
The messenger of Allah, the Most Honorable Elijah Muhammad, teaches that...
Sorry, got confused again about the “final call” thing.
After the flurries and brief snow showers this morning, we’ll have partly to mostly cloudy conditions for most of the day—this will give us just a dusting, perhaps an inch in isolated areas.
The actual storm will move in around 6 or 7 tonight, when it will begin snowing fairly steadily. Snow will continue in varying intensities overnight. We should have 4-5 inches on the ground when we wake up and wait for the calls on Wednesday morning.
Snow will mix with, then change to, sleet and freezing rain sometime between 8am and 11am Wednesday, adding another dimension of danger to this event in terms of driving hazards, power outages, and the like. The heaviest precipitation is likely to arrive in this period generally (6am to noon) so this could get quite nasty.
Precipitation may change back to snow briefly in the late afternoon or early evening as it tapers off and the storm pulls away.
Early dismissal Tuesday: 20%
Delay Wednesday: 60%
Cancellation Wednesday: 85%
Delay Thursday: 40%
Cancellation Thursday: 10%
Total accumulation of snow and ice: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated areas (particularly northern Berks) getting up to 8 inches.
Monsoon's Monday afternoon storm update
Monday afternoon update:
We won’t see a lot of snow overnight tonight and into Tuesday morning / afternoon. Maybe a coating to an inch in isolated areas by Tuesday morning.
Snow intensifies around 5 or 6 Tuesday evening (so I think the Tuesday commute home from school shouldn't be too bad) and continues through the night. Snow mixes with and changes to sleet on Wednesday morning, creating more travel difficulties as perhaps a quarter-inch of ice accumulates on top of the snowfall.
Delay Tuesday: 10%
Cancellation Tuesday: 15%
Early dismissal Tuesday: 35%
Delay Wednesday: 95%
Cancellation Wednesday: 70%
I’ll make my “final call” (not the Nation of Islam newspaper, but my last, official forecast on this event) on Tuesday morning, with further updates as needed.
Monsoon's Initial Call on the Midweek Storm
Habari mori,
We’re still 60 hours from the event, so my call can (and probably will) change between now and then. (In other words, don’t hold me to it!) That said, here’s my initial call:
Light snow and flurries beginning on Tuesday late afternoon and evening, becoming steadier and heavier Tuesday night and overnight into Wednesday. Snow will be heaviest Wednesday morning, continuing throughout Wednesday afternoon and evening, then tapering by early Thursday morning.
Some forecast models are presenting the chance for “heavy” snow with this system, so we might be hearing quite a bit about it as it approaches.
My feeling in terms of cancellations and delays: no early dismissal Tuesday; widespread school cancellations Wednesday; and widespread delays on Thursday morning. Accumulations 4 to 6 inches generally.
Stay tuned for updates on timing, amounts, and delay/cancellation predictions.
Monsoon's Quick Weather Update for Friday, 23 January 2009
A quick forecast update...
Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat mild, with a high of 46; then getting down to 20 overnight.
Saturday looks mostly sunny, windy and colder. High of 31, low of 12. Wind chills at night will approach zero.
Sunday will be partly sunny, breezy and cold. High 26, low 11.
Next week looks like more of the same: highs in the mid to upper 20s; lows in the low to mid teens through Wednesday. Snow is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday, so stay tuned for updates as this event comes into sharper focus. Thursday will be a bit milder with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s. Maybe some rain or snow showers on Thursday.
Next weekend looks fairly typical for this time of year: highs in the mid 30s, lows in the mid 20s.
Beyond: cold again with highs not getting out of the 20s for the first week of February. There are some indications that the pattern is shifting and we could get walloped with at least one or two good snowstorms from the 2nd through the 4th.
Monsoon's Percentages for Cancellation and Delay Tuesday
Now that the snow is pulling away from our area and most of us have made it home, I'm getting all kinds of reports about how nasty the driving is: slippery areas (especially on bridges) and accidents galore on the highways (I've heard 222 and 78 are notable hazard spots). Might be a good idea to limit your travel tonight.
Things may improve a bit overnight with some salting and plowing, but particularly on secondary roadways, things are going to be dicey during the Tuesday morning commute.
My predictions for cancellation and delay Tuesday 1/20:
Cancellation: 25%
Delay: 70%
Monsoon's Weather Update
Hey--
I meant to get this out earlier, but I had a killer migraine headache that kept me in bed most of the morning.
The snow that many of us see falling right now can continue on and off through late afternoon, accumulating as much as an inch in some places. Please use caution when driving--especially on secondary roads--but generally things should not get too treacherous.
Monday – a few light to moderate snow showers and flurries through late afternoon, accumulating in some places as much as an inch; cloudy and seasonably cold. High 32, low 18.
Tuesday – partly cloudy, breezy and colder. High 28, low 12.
Wednesday – plenty of sunshine, breezy and continued cold. High 26, low 15.
Thursday – partly to mostly sunny and a bit milder. High 37, low 24.
Friday – mostly cloudy with a chance of a few snow showers, not amounting to much. High 36, low 25.
The weekend – windy with more clouds than sun; a few flurries or light snow showers are possible on Saturday. Highs in the mid 30s, lows in the low 20s.
Next week – colder with highs below freezing and lows in the teens. Snow is possible on Tuesday the 27th and Thursday the 29th.
Beyond – the following weekend looks a bit milder (highs toward 40) and perhaps some rain.
Monsoon's Forecast Update - Winter Weather
Update on tonight's weather event:
Snow showers will not begin until 9 or 10pm; snow will actually be moving in within the next few hours, but the air is so dry it will have trouble reaching the ground at first. Accumulations will be light—up to two inches in northern Berks, Allentown, and points north; a coating to an inch in southern Berks, northern Lancaster, and Harrisburg. The track of this clipper could shift southward and produce up to 3 inches over most of the forecast area, but this is quite unlikely. Light snow showers and flurries will continue intermittently into Thursday morning, tapering toward mid-morning.
Conditions will become significantly colder following this system. After a high of only about 24 on Thursday (when very windy conditions will actually make it feel like it’s in the single digits), the temperature will fall to about 4 at night. Afternoon temperatures on Friday will only reach about 14 before falling to zero overnight (with wind chills in the negative teens).
Chance of cancellation Thursday: 30%
Chance of delay Thursday: 55%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 35%
Chance of delay Friday: 50%
Cold, but not as cold, over the weekend with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens; a chance of some stray snow showers overnight Saturday into Sunday. Stay tuned for updates on that event.
Next really good chances for snow are Friday the 23rd and Tuesday the 27th.