Uh ... never mind ...
The Sunday-Monday storm is going to miss us. I was really looking forward to a three-day weekend (and so were many of you, desperately, to judge from your pleading inquiries), but alas, 'tis not to be.
It's going to slide south of us, and the most anyone in the vicinity will see from this storm is a trace amount of snow in extreme south Jersey and around the DelMar/Pennsylvania state line.
So. Here's what I think we'll see over the next three weeks (roughly the 3rd through the 17th)...
Sunny and chilly with highs in mid to upper 40s on Friday and Saturday. Lows in the upper 20s.
Partly sunny, chilly and a bit windy with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday and Monday. Lows in the upper 20s.
Partly to mostly sunny and quite windy with highs in the mid 40s, from Tuesday right through Thursday.
It gets colder on Friday 2/10: high in the upper 30s and rather windy.
I see dry conditions prevailing throughout the entire eight-day period outlined above.
On Saturday 2/11 we'll see a high only around freezing, and some ice/freezing rain is possible at night. Sunday could also bring a little frozen precipitation, but that's nothing major.
The next really interesting span (in terms of winter weather) is Tuesday 2/14 through Thursday 2/16. Big storm possible right around then.
Stay tuned! ...... *sigh*
Santorum - That's Latin for...
My friends,
Permit me a brief political digression in this snow-starved winter season. My elemental, to-my-core, stone-cold, visceral loathing of former senator and current Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum came flooding back to me when I saw this picture:
Stephen Crowley of The New York Times snapped it as the candidate spoke at a black church in Florida about a week ago. It eloquently captures its moment: the crushing ennui of the berobed African American choirmembers, the blithering bloviation inherent in each of Santorum's speeches, the miserable failure of a staged photo opportunity--the churchgoers flanking the candidate, separated by race but united by their shared hatred of the devil, the unlikely supporters urging him on to speak the truth. It is a frozen moment into which perhaps too much meaning can be read, but it is also one from which a deeply satisfying amusement can be derived.
In case you haven't been following along, Santorum scared the ever-loving shit out of reasonable people all over this land when he won the Iowa caucus, suggesting that he might actually have a chance to win the Republican nomination (and thereafter--*shudder*--the presidency). He has faded in the primaries since, but his viability as a vice-presidential candidate remains strong.
Former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska pegged Santorum best early in Rick's career. He said, "Santorum - that's Latin for 'asshole.'"
If you're still unconvinced that Bob Kerrey was right - and you haven't been following with glee Dan Savage's nearly decade-long public vendetta against Santorum - here are some words directly from his own mouth:
“If the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual [gay] sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn’t exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution. In every society, the definition of marriage has not ever to my knowledge included homosexuality. That’s not to pick on homosexuality. It’s not, you know, man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be. It is one thing.”
“One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country. It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be. [Sex] is supposed to be within marriage. It’s supposed to be for purposes that are yes, conjugal…but also procreative. That’s the perfect way that a sexual union should happen…This is special and it needs to be seen as special.”
“Let’s look at what’s going to be taught in our schools because now we have same sex couples being the same and their sexual activity being seen as equal and being affirmed by society as heterosexual couples and their activity. So what is going to be taught to our people in health class in our schools? What is going to be taught to our children about who in our stories, even to little children — what are married couples? What families look like in America? So, you are going to have in our curriculum spread throughout our curriculum worldview that is fundamentally different than what is taught in schools today? Is that not a consequence of gay marriage?”
“I don’t want to make black people's live better by giving them other people’s money. I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn their money and provide for themselves and their families. The best way to do that is to get the manufacturing sector of the economy rolling.”
“The American Left hates Christendom. They hate Western civilization.”
“It’s amazing that so many kids turn out to be fairly normal, considering the weird socialization they get in public schools.”
“All the people that live in the West Bank are Israelis. They are not Palestinians. There is no Palestinian. This is Israeli land.”
So: he's a virulent homophobe, a supporter of abstinence-only education, a homeschooling zealot who would love nothing more than to dismantle the public education system, a bloody racist, an unapologetic booster of Israeli Zionism, and a pro-business capitalist who favors privatization and eschews regulation.
In short: he's a nightmare for anyone with a brain or a heart.
Is 't possible?
First of all, prepare yourselves for the brief "January thaw," which will actually straddle two months. Today's high will be 60, and tomorrow's will be a breezy 63 with a few light showers possible, particularly in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday will be mostly cloudy and cooler (high 46) with a slight chance of showers and drizzle in the afternoon. The Nor'easter I mentioned over the weekend has not materialized. Friday and Saturday look partly sunny and continued cool with highs in the mid 40s.
Sunday to Monday is still looking interesting, though most of the traditional meteorological outlets are saying little about it. My prediction is that by Thursday or Friday, they will. Expect a high on Sunday in the upper 30s to near 40, then an overnight low in the upper 20s. Conditions are lining up for a ice storm, which would knock us out of school Monday. From what I have heard, this day off would be a welcome--and in some quarters, desperately needed--respite. So, you know, I am doing my best to make sure this happens.
As for the remainder of next week, things are (to employ an oft-used weather pun) up in the air. If cold air dams down from Canada, we could see temperatures plummet into the teens and twenties. I still see a nice snowstorm possible right around Wednesday 2/8 to Thursday 2/9.
Next weekend (the 11th and 12th) look gorgeous: highs in the low to mid 50s with plenty of sunshine.
Upcoming winter weather potentials
The first chance of some wintry weather comes this evening (7-11pm or so), when we could see some flurries or a brief period of light snow. The clouds will clear overnight and usher in a partly sunny and cool Monday with highs in the upper 30s.
Tuesday will be pleasant and milder with a high in the low 50s; Wednesday will be milder still with a high in the mid 50s. We could see a few rain showers on Wednesday.
I'm tracking a Nor'easter that could come into play on Thursday evening into Friday and cause major disruptions. As of now, though, given the snowless and mild pattern that's dominating, I don't think it's going to pan out. I'll call it partly sunny and cooler with highs in the mid 40s on Thursday, low 40s on Friday. It's a "miss" for now, but stay tuned for updates. (If we get anything, it'll be plain rain.)
Saturday and Sunday are much colder with plenty of clouds and highs at or below freezing. In fact, we'll see a shift from milder conditions to a frigid blast.
Most concerning to me is what I'm seeing for Monday, February 6th. It looks like we'll be dealing with snow and ice for the bulk of that day, and school disruptions seem likely. The high will only make it to 30.
And then... another potential snowstorm for February 8th-9th.
In sum, there are signs that wintry weather may actually return to winter. Many people have said they could use a snow day (or at least, and preferably, a delay). I'd venture to say we'll see both in the next two weeks...
Freezing drizzle tonight, then a warm-up
Tonight we'll see some light rain showers and freezing drizzle come through the area, with the potential to create some icy spots on the roads, even those that have been cleared. Greatest hazard is after 9pm tonight, through to around 4 or 5am. By the morning commute (6-8am), surfaces temperatures will be a few degrees above freezing. We could, however, encounter some fog on Monday morning, which obscures visibility and would make it more difficult to detect any lingering slick spots. Considering all that, I'll call it:
40% chance of school delays
10% chance of school cancellation
After all that, we'll see rain developing, steady to heavy at times, throughout the day and evening Monday. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and even top 50 in some places.
Tuesday looks mostly sunny, breezy and mild with highs around 50.
Wednesday and Thursday will see highs a bit lower, with the freezing rain potential returning for Thursday (stay tuned).
Beyond that, still looking at the 30th-31st for a potential ice-sleet event, as well as February 3rd to 4th for some snow!
Snow / sleet potential, next few days
Thought I'd update you on a few wintry weather mini-events in our near future:
Today we could see flurries and scattered snow showers in the morning and early afternoon, then turning windy and colder. No accumulation. High 38.
Thursday will feature plenty of clouds, especially as the day goes on, and the late afternoon and evening will bring the chance of widely scattered light snow showers and flurries. No accumulation in most places; a coating in some. High in the mid 30s, low in the low 20s. (Delay Friday 20%, cancellation 5%.)
Friday looks mostly sunny, breezy, and continued cold. High 34.
Snow, later mixed with sleet, is likely late Friday overnight into Saturday, tapering by Saturday afternoon. Right now it's looking as though we'll get, at most, an inch or two of accumulation out of this system before it ends as plain rain. Temperatures holding at or just above freezing for most of the day. Then Sunday looks partly sunny and milder with a high in the low 40s.
Milder next week (highs in the 40s to near 50 some days) so the precipitation we see on Tuesday-Wednesday and Friday should be all rain.
There are some indications of a pattern change for the first part of February that would bring us some actual snow...but I'm not holding my breath...
MLK Day / forecast
Today is Martin Luther King Day. Less well-known than his civil rights work is Dr. King’s anti-war stance, which emerged strongly in the final year of his life. This pacifist epiphany occurred when "I knew that I could never again raise my voice against the violence of the oppressed in the ghettos without having first spoken clearly to the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today, my own government." On April 4, 1967, Dr. King delivered an address entitled “A Time to Break Silence.” It included the following words:
"Now, it should be incandescently clear that no one who has any concern for the integrity and life of America today can ignore the present war. If America's soul becomes totally poisoned, part of the autopsy must read: Vietnam. It can never be saved so long as it destroys the deepest hopes of men the world over. So it is that those of us who are yet determined that America will be are led down the path of protest and dissent, working for the health of our land."
Exactly one year later, he was assassinated in Memphis. James Earl Ray confessed to the murder, but theories persist that Dr. King’s nascent anti-war agitation made him a target of those who were waging that unpopular war.
Anywho. No way to smoothly transition from MLK to the weather.
So here’s what to expect overnight:
Monday will be mostly sunny and breezy today with a high only in the mid 30s.
Rain begins overnight – by 11 or 12. Sleet and freezing rain mix in throughout the early overnight hours, then changes to all rain by 4 or 5am. We could see a small accumulation of ice on the roads and sidewalks overnight—so use caution when driving—but this will be washed away by morning. Rain then tapers by late Tuesday afternoon. (The temperatures will actually rise overnight, from 32 at 11pm to 38 by 9am. Problem is, there’s no classic “trough” to trap to cold air into our area.) Still, we could see a bit of the slipperiness hang around into the morning commute, so I’ll call it:
40% chance of school delays.
15% chance of school cancellation.
The high temperature will actually reach a (comparatively) balmy 46.
Wednesday looks partly sunny, quite windy, and colder, with a high of 36 and an overnight low in the upper teens.
Thursday and Friday look like more of the same, albeit with diminishing winds. (Slight chance of snow showers Thursday night into Friday. No big whoop.)
The weekend looks milder with highs in the low 50s, but also the chance of some (rain) showers.
Snow? Ice? Wintry weather? I see nothing terribly promising through to the end of January.
Of course, all that can change rapidly, so stay tuned…
What to expect for Friday morning ... and beyond
It's been a bleak winter for snowbirds thus far. Let's see what Friday has in store...
Today we'll see gradual clearing in the afternoon, with some breaks of sun. Mild temperatures with a high in the mid 50s. Increasingly windy tonight with a few showers. Temperatures will fall through the 40s and into the 30s by the overnight hours.
Friday morning will be interesting, but I think we'll escape major issues. One theory has it that we could see a "flash freeze" overnight due to rapidly falling temperatures and wet roadways, but I don't see the cold air making very good time to our area. Another theory has the cold air arriving in time for a few inches of snow to accumulate in this area. I don't see enough moisture to warrant this theory, though.
So: Friday will be very windy with scattered flurries and snow showers in the morning. Sustained winds above 30mph; gusts past 50mph. Highs in the low 30s early, falling through the 20s throughout the day. Expect wind chills in the teens. Could see scattered power outages from the cold and wind.
Predictions: Friday cancellation 10%; Friday delay 30%.
This weekend looks partly sunny, breezy and frigid. High Saturday will be 33; low 18. High Sunday will be 27, low 11.
More of the same for Monday: highs below freezing. A weak front moves through on Tuesday evening that could bring us some snow showers, but nothing much is expected.
Keeping an eye on Saturday 1/21 for possible snow, as well as Wednesday 1/25 into Thursday 1/26 for the potential for snow and ice. But really, it's looking like we may may it through all of January with no snow-related delays or cancellations...