A quick word about the 40-inch urban legend...
Flapdoodle Gang,
So I'm tracking three storms that could bring winter weather to our area: Sunday night into Monday (likely just an inch or two, if that); Tuesday night into Wednesday (a mixed event with significant icing is looking more and more likely); and next Saturday and Sunday (a potentially larger snow event).
I'll have updated forecasting on these systems throughout the weekend.
Jörg! Keepin' it Swiss.Allow me a moment to address the recent snowpocalyptic rumors, hollered at me in the school parking lot, pinging around the hallowed halls of Mifflin, overheard in the grocery store, shared with me on Facebook, and yodeled in my general direction by an eclectic Swiss forensic accountant named Jörg.
(Alright, I made that last one up.)
One such rumor says that we are going to get 40 inches of snow next weekend. Another puts the figure at 24 inches; still another says 30 inches.
It turns out that the 40 inches figure was a cumulative one - the total precipitation expected from several storms over the course of more than a week. And it's been traced to some teenage kid who shared this map without context, causing it to go viral and everyone to go Defcon-five apeshit.
And the 24 and 30 inch totals were from one model, one run, 9 days before the event would (or would not) happen.
Here are the facts:
The snow ratios - the ratio of snowfall to liquid precipitation - for these three storms are expected to be in the range of 10:1 to 5:1. When it's colder out - as with the powdery events earlier in January - the ratios are 15:1 and even 20:1. So in order to produce 40 inches at a 5:1 snow ratio, we'd need 8 inches of rainfall. (The average total precipitation for this area in the entire month of February is about 3 inches.)
Even at a 10:1 snow ratio, we'd still need 4 inches. And the 24-inch prediction, at a 10:1 ratio, would still require 2.4 inches of liquid, which is kind of a lot.
Any forecast that purports to give snow totals 9 days from the event (or even 5 days from the event) is a steaming load of ballyhoo on a bed of fiddlesticks, festooned with glimmering twaddle.
So there you have it. No 24, no 30, no 40 inches. It's best to be prepared, to be sure. (Atlanta was warned about the snow, but ignored it. And gridlock ensued.) But in reality, these potential winter weather events are likely to produce a figure far under any of those numbers.
Stay tuned for updates!
"Finally, I can feel my face."
That is what millions in the Northeast will say on Friday as the temperature rises above freezing for the first time in about a week.
And I think the next few days will be the last of the extreme cold in this brutal, merciless, frigid, deep-bone-shuddering frost-scape of a winter. I mean, it'll still be cold. But normal cold for early February--highs in the upper 30s, lows in the lower 20s. Not Arctic Circle-type action.
Thursday 1/30 will be frigid, still, after a frigid night (down to 5 overnight). High 28, low 15.
Friday 1/31 looks mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a few snow showers. High 38, low 27.
Saturday 2/1 will again by mostly cloudy. Could be a little ice/sleet early; watch for icy patches. High 42, low 30.
Sunday 2/2 looks cloudy and breezy. Chance of a few afternoon rain showers. High 44, low 31.
Monday 2/3 looks variably cloudy and a bit colder. Flurries or snow showers possible. High 36, low 23.
Tuesday 2/4 will be sunny and uneventful. High 35, low 19.
Wednesday 2/5 brings our next chance of potentially disruptive snow. More than six days before the event, models conflict. Right now I'd make the following preliminary prediction:
30% chance of a complete miss - little or no precipitation.
20% chance of a mixed event - starting out as rain, changing to snow, accumulating 2-4 inches.
35% chance of an all snow event - accumulating 4-8 inches.
15% chance of an all snow event - accumulating 8-12 inches.
(I think that adds up to 100%. Math teachers, please check my work.)
Thursday 2/6 looks breezy and cold with clouds and sun. High 33, low 18.
Friday 2/7 looks colder still (but again, not the breathtaking polar deathgrip of this week and early January). High 28, low 16.
Next weekend (2/8 and 2/9) still looks snowy, particularly Saturday night into Sunday. It's a long way off, though. A lot can change between now and then.
The following week looks cold (nearly normal cold, with highs in the low to mid 30s). Looking at February 13th and 15th for some interesting weather. And when I say interesting, I mean, No, god no, not again, ugh.
Stay tuned for updates!!
In my idle traversing of the fecund underbelly of the internets, I found a website called Star Whispers that features Chinese horoscopes for celebrities. And of course, it includes material about David Hasselhoff. These are all real quotations from that website. I have not doctored them in any way.
"David Hasselhoff is technically talented which shows both in his thinking and his activities. He loves to detangled the most diverse things with the head and the hands in order to put them back together perfectly afterwards. David Hasselhoff likes to work independently and possess a professional attitude."- "David Hasselhoff is the bedrock of society, the foundation of any enterprise. He is an organizer and manager. David Hasselhoff's approach to life and to problems is methodical and systematic. He is a builder and a doer. David Hasselhoff turns dreams into reality." [Monsoon's note: those first two sentences are among the most profound that have ever been uttered. It is definitely fodder for a bumper sticker. Nay, a religion.]
- "David Hasselhoff is profound, does not like to reveal himself and is hard to comprehend. Therefore David Hasselhoff has only a few close friends and often feels not at par."
- "David Hasselhoff needs someone encouraging and motivating him. Sometimes David Hasselhoff seems to be a riddle. David Hasselhoff's ideas are hard to comprehend. With the money of others David Hasselhoff deals well and even increases the wealth. Not so much with his own."
- "Politics, this different kind of acting interests him and if he plunges into it it is not to play the role of an extra. His liking of glamorous appearances is part of his dynamic personality. With such a mentality David Hasselhoff will bring it to fame in any resort."
- "David Hasselhoff is always on the search for challenges and sentimental adventures. The amorous conquests can be an opportunity to verify his seductive skills - which is necessary to calm his ego -, but also is a must for his development."
I mean, it's just magnificent and endlessly fascinating. (The website, but also works for The Hoff.)
Wind chill advisory for Tuesday morning = delays or cancellations?
Wind chill advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for 1am to 10am Tuesday. It's already pretty cold and windy out there (it's about 20 degrees with wind chills in the teens as of 8pm).
Temperatures will plummet to about 2 by the morning commute; wind chill values will be in the -10 to -15 range. It will get up to a balmy 12 in the afternoon, with wind chills climbing to 0. So will we have another day off? A delay?
This is getting tricky now, since we cancelled earlier in January for extreme cold and people are starting to be all "our spring break is gone!" and "we will be going to school in July!" and "this is Obama's fault!" I mean, there's no evidence to support the last statement, but that doesn't seem to stop people otherwise.
So I think superintendents will be pretty conservative: they will use cancellations sparingly. Delays, maybe. But I have a feeling they're feeling pressure to get a full week of school in. And aside from the cold frigidness, there's nothing else looming this week.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 12%
Wednesday morning will be slightly less cold (about 6) and slightly less windy, so wind chills will be at about -5 during the morning commute. Temperatures will get all the way up to 24 on Wednesday.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 24%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 6%
The rest of the week looks gradually warmer; it looks to get above freezing by Friday. So whoo!
Morning snow showers possible on Saturday 2/1, then it'll get up to the upper 30s. Sunday, upper 30s too.
Next week, as of now, looks like a bit of a mess.
Bonus points for anyone who knows what movie this is from.(Which is another reason the deciders might be hesitant to call snow days this week.)
Freezing rain on Tuesday 2/4. Snow or sleet on Wednesday 2/5. Rain of frogs on Friday 2/7.
Alright, probably not. But do you know for sure it's not going to happen?
Next weekend (the 8th and 9th) looks potentially foul. But it's early.
And then it warms up for the middle of the month! Highs in the 40s! It will feel like the g.d. tropics.
Stay tuned for updates!
Saturday snow, another arctic blast, and what lies ahead...
Saturday's little clipper looks like it will bring some snow showers and stronger squalls (periods of intense snow) in the morning and afternoon. An inch or two of accumulation is likely (isolated areas could see three), but I don't see a big whoop with this one. Roads are pretty briny already, and most areas won't get enough snow to stick on the roads and make them treacherous.
So use caution if you're out and about tomorrow, but it's nothing that'll ruin your plans. Quite windy, too. High 30, low 9.
Cold and windy on Sunday with a snow shower or two in the late afternoon (no accumulation). High 22, low 14. Wind chills dipping below zero.
It now appears that Monday's potential snowstorm will miss us to the north, giving us only flurries and ushering in another polar vortex, which is a fashionable weather term, but which really just means that it will be super cold, frigid, bitter, thanks a pantload, Canada. Mostly cloudy and windy; becoming much colder at night. High 32, low 4.
Pals Richard Dean Anderson (sharing a kiss with a killer whale) and David Hasselhoff. This is from the late 1970s, I think. Both were doctor-portraying heartthrob soap stars who had wider ambitions: R.D.A. played Dr. Jeff Webber on "General Hospital" and The Hoff was Dr. William "Snapper" Foster on "Days of Our Lives." MacGyver (1985) and Knight Rider (1982) were not even a glint in their dreamy eyes.Tuesday actually has the potential to be the most bone-chilling day in this winter of unprecedented, breath-robbing, cruel-and-unusual balls-coldness. Partly sunny with a high of 12 and a low of -2. Those a real temperatures. Not wind chills. (The wind chills will be slightly below zero during the day, -15 overnight.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 18%
Partly sunny and bitterly cold again (but not as windy) on Wednesday. High 14, low 0.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 16%
Sunny and cold again on Thursday - high 24, low 14.
Good news: Friday's potential storm is another miss. High 30, low 18.
Next weekend looks cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers on Sunday. High of 30 on Saturday, then turning windy and actually climbing above freezing for a bit on Sunday.
The next chances of disruptive winter weather will be Tuesday 2/4 and Friday 2/7. And maybe Monday 2/10. Temperatures throughout the week will be cold, but not as cold. Highs in the upper 20s, that sort of thing.
Stay tuned for updates!!
Thursday delay? Weekend action? Next Friday? A walrus playing the saxophone??
Just wanted to see if you were paying attention on that last one. Although:
Anywho.
Thursday morning at 7am, it will be 3 degrees. Not much wind, so wind chills won't reach dangerous levels. Up to 19 in the afternoon. A few snow showers in the late afternoon and evening. It's not going to accumulate, but be aware that any snow in these frigid temperatures can make the going slippery.
Chance of delay Thursday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 14.675%
Breezy overnight and down to the single digits again. Friday will be sunny and frigid with a high of 17.
Chance of delay Friday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Friday, π%
Saturday looks cloudy and continued breezy with some flurries and snow showers, accumulating a coating to perhaps an inch. No big. High of 33.
Sunday will be cold again. Colder. High of 21. Can't rule out a snow shower or two. This is getting repetitive. Damn.
Monday brings the chance of another storm in the morning, but I think this is a miss. Turning out partly cloudy and breezy with a high of 28.
Sunny and colder on Tuesday with a high of 22 and a low of 9.
Not quite as cold on Wednesday, when the high will get all the way up to 28.
Thursday night into Friday, there's the chance for another storm - one very similar to the one that hit us yesterday. So my preliminary call is 6-8 inches, but a lot can happen between now and then in terms of track and whatnot.
In the words of Frank Vitchard (Luke Wilson) of the third-place Channel 2 news team in Anchorman, "Come on! Augh, god! This is gettin' to be ri-god-damn-diculous!"
And then ... the first weekend of February looks sunny and milder with highs in the upper 30s into the 40s. Might we be finished with the snow? I don't see anything major looming thereafter. But as always...
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!
5pm Tuesday update
As of this afternoon, it is still snowing. Philadelphia schools have cancelled for tomorrow already.
Here are the latest snow totals in the area, as of late this afternoon:
Reading, PA: 5.8 inches
Millersville, PA: 5.3 inches
Dover, York County, PA: 9.2 inches
Newark, DE: 8.2 inches
Croydon, Bucks County, PA: 8.8 inches
Exton, Chester County, PA: 5.2 inches
Northeast Philadelphia, PA: 7.1 inches
Middletown, NJ: 8.1 inches
I expect snow to wrap up by 7 or 8pm for Berks, and a bit later for Philly--maybe even after midnight.
Snow totals will be 6-8 inches for Berks, 8-10 inches for Philly. Locally higher amounts.
Tomorrow morning, about 7am, it will be 3 degrees with a -19 wind chill. Highs will only get up to 14 tomorrow. Snow's going to be blowing all over the place, particularly in the morning and early afternoon.
My call for school delays etc...
Wednesday delay, 93%
Wednesday cancellation, 77%
Please share your road observations / snow totals with me on the Facebook page. And let me know if you are delayed or closed for Wednesday 1/22!
Stay tuned...
Tuesday will be a snowy, frigid mess.
The models have shifted, and now it looks as though Tuesday's storm will be a bit more significant than I initially thought.
Light snow begins between 9 and 11am, then intensifies in the afternoon. Heaviest period of snow will be from about 1pm to 6pm. Then snow will taper by 9pm or 10pm.
Accumulations:
- 4-6 inches in Philadelphia's immediate suburbs and on out to Lancaster County, Berks, Lebanon, and Lehigh.
- 2-4 inches in areas north and west of that. The "line" between 2-4 and 4-6 will be quite sharp, and looks as though it will cut through Lebanon, Berks, and Lehigh Counties. So if and when that happens, areas in central and southern Berks would get 5 inches, while northern Berks only gets 2. Like that.
- 6-8 inches in extreme southern Pennsylvania, much of Philadelphia, south Jersey, and Delaware. Isolated areas in this band could approach a foot of accumulation--particularly south and east of Philadelphia.
Now about school cancellations and whatnot.
Because Hasselhoff. #becausehasselhoffConsiderations: the temperature will be 20 degrees around 7am, then fall to the mid teens by 5pm, and fall to the single digits overnight into Wednesday. Winds will start fairly light, but by 5pm the winds will be 15-20mph sustained, driving wind chills into the negative single digits. Wind chills by early Wednesday morning will be in the neighborhood of -12.
The roads will become slick even in light snow. In colder temperatures, road treatments like brine and rock salt are less effective. The evening rush on Tuesday will be treacherous: snowy and windy with drifting snow, low visibility, and temperatures in the teens.
I'm stalling.
Here are my predictions. Again, these are not meant to add up to 100%.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 10%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 60%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 75%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Stay tuned for updates!
Tuesday 1/21/14 snow chances - and beyond...
Some of the forecast models are picking up on a speedy little clipper system moving through on Tuesday, and suggesting that it could produce accumulating snow and travel delays for some.
It looks more like a quick dusting.
Here's what I see for the coming week:
Monday 1/20: More clouds than sun. Chilly with a high of 38. Widely scattered rain or snow showers possible in the afternoon. Winds will make it feel like 20s during the day, single digits at night.
Tuesday 1/21: Noticeably colder and mostly cloudy again. A clipper may leave an inch or two of accumulation in Delaware, Philly, and South Jersey, but I don't expect more than a dusting for the Berks region. This would be a mid-morning-to-mid-afternoon joint: 10am to 2pm? Something like that.
High 22, low 5. (Wind chills: single digits during the day, negative single digits at night.)
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 15%
Chance of delay Tuesday: 7%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 19.5%
Gratuitous Hasselhoff pic.Wednesday 1/22: Sunny, breezy, and frigid. High 17, low 9.
Thursday 1/23: Partly cloudy and still a bit breezy. Afternoon snow showers or flurries can't be ruled out. High 26, low 11.
Friday 1/24: Hey, something different! It will be breezy and cold, but the sun will be out. High 26, low 12.
Saturday 1/25: Predominant clouds. Maybe a snow shower or two. High 32, low 18.
Sunday 1/26: Cold with sun and clouds brr. High 28, low 9.
Next week: Not quite as frigid, but still cold. Watch out for some snow possible on Tuesday 1/28 into Wednesday 1/29.
Stay tuned for updates as more model runs are released. If the storm tracks west (which is not looking likely, but it's possible), then Tuesday will be more ... notable.