Monday mid-afternoon update
It's time for "nowcasting," which is a fairly recent meteorological term and a pretty juicy paradox. Basically, it means, describing what is happening and just about to happen, but using weathery, sciencey terms to sound like we knew it all along.
So, to nowcast: The blizzard is trending east, which means less snow for us in Berks.
Still looking at quite a lot of snow for NYC, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire: more than two feet in some places within that range. (The record set in the blizzard of 1947, which dropped 26.4 inches on Central Park, may be challenged.)
Melancholy Hoff.North Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, suburban New York, and into Maine will see 12-16 inches.
Philly and south Jersey look to be in the 8-10 inch range.
The immediate suburbs (Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties) look to be in the 4-6 inch range.
And then it drops off. It's not clear where the boundary will set up, but it appears to be in western Delaware County in a longitudinal line (that's running north and south) from that point. Everything to the east of that boundary will get 4-6 inches. Everything to the west will get an inch or two at most.
So that puts the Lehigh Valley, Berks and Lancaster Counties, and even Chester County in the little-or-no-snow category.
For us, blowing/drifting will be concerns, so a delay is still likely--but an outright snow day Tuesday is looking less likely.
So, updated percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Of course, I will continue to monitor the situation closely and will keep you posted on any changes...
Stay tuned for updates!
Sunday morning update on Mon-Tue!
Right into it, then.
The clipper gives us 3-4 inches of snow. We may see some flurries/light snow showers late Sunday night (9-10pm) but the snow doesn't begin in earnest until the overnight hours (maybe 1-2am). Snow continues on and off through mid to late Monday afternoon, when there should be a break in the precipitation.
Then around 6-8pm Monday, we'll see the Nor'easter crank up. Current guidance suggests that the most dire impacts will be in north Jersey, NYC, and New England, where more than a foot of wind-driven snow is likely. Philly, South Jersey, Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery Counties will get an additional 6-8 inches of accumulation, giving them 9-12 between late Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon.
A message brought to you by your local grocer.In Berks and Lancaster Counties, we appear to be toward the outskirts of this storm, so we're not looking at a direct hit. But we can still expect an additional 4-6 inches, so the storm total (from late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon) is 6-10 inches.
In all the areas affected by the storm--from Bally to Bridesburg to Burlington to Brooklyn to Boston to Bangor--expect blizzard or near-blizzard conditions: wind-driven snow, lots of drifting, low visibilities, and some power outages. It will cold as well: high Monday of 27; high Tuesday of 23. Still windy and cold on Wednesday, but sunny.
And then we're watching something for Friday 1/30.
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 94%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 78%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 55%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 70%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 24%
Stay tuned for updates!
A jab, then a haymaker?
A few things to talk to you about:
I couldn't bring myself to taint my blog with a picture of the foul Donald Duck. Instead, I present you with an image of David Hasselhoff as Michael Knight, looking quizzically at Donald Duck (offscreen).1. Donald Duck creeps me out. The dead eyes, the pantslessness, the volatile, hair-trigger temper - is this a children's character or my drunk uncle?
2. I clamored for more "likes" on Facebook to get to 800 and promised untold riches to the 800th. Then I went to sleep. I am now at 816 "likes" and counting, and have no way of determining who the 800th was. My deepest apologies for this lapse. Also, "like" my Facebook page.
3. My prediction for last night's storm was a little low. Heavier banding set up in a lot of places and the storm got here more quickly (making it an all-snow event rather than a snow-sleet-rain event for most of us).
4. We are getting some more, my good people.
First, a clipper comes through. Snow begins by 9 or 10pm Sunday night, continuing on and off throughout the night. Steadiest snow will be Monday morning between 6am and noon. (This is the titular "jab.")
Then, the system churns off the coast and becomes a Nor'easter, which could then slam us. (This is the titular "haymaker"--a term that derives from the use of a scythe with a wide, sweeping stroke to, literally, make hay.) Some forecast models are painting a proper blizzard here: 8-12 inches or more of light, fluffy snow, blown around by high winds. I'm not ready to call this a sure thing, though it does bear watching.
So as of Saturday night at 9pm EST, here are my percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 92%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 67%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 44%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 56%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Stay tuned for updates--they will surely be forthcoming.
Winter Storm Ignacio.
Actually, The Weather Channel is calling it Iola, but I don't care for that name, and as you know, when I think something is misnamed--person, place, or thing--I will rechristen it. Nicole becomes Carolyn. Emily becomes Cindy. Quinn becomes Stanley. Jill becomes Kelsey. Brent becomes Brandon. Whatnot.
Snow arrives 10pm-midnight Friday. Surface temperatures will be right at or just above the freezing mark (32 for quick reference) throughout the storm, so it's going to be tricky predicting what type of precipitation will fall from place to place, hour to hour.
I am not punking out; I am just telling you what I'm up against.
Snow, then, beginning 10-12pm Friday and continuing through mid-morning Saturday, when it will mix briefly with sleet, then turn over to plain rain by noon, after which we'll see drizzle and flurries through mid-afternoon.
Total accumulation: I'm sticking with 3-4 inches for most of us (Berks, Lehigh, Bucks, Lancaster). Maybe an inch or two for Philly and South Jersey. Maybe a hair more--5 and three-quarters?--in Lebanon, Schuylkill, Northampton, Dauphin.
Travel impacts: Throughout Saturday morning, travel will be shitty over most of the region. Saturday afternoon and evening will be far better, then on Saturday night (after, say, 10 or 11pm) temperatures will fall back below freezing and slick spots will develop once again.
On Sunday night into Monday, we're looking at a clipper system moving through. It will accumulate only 2-3 inches generally, but (the way it looks now) the timing and overall balls-coldness (highs in the 20s with wind chills in the low teens--then falling throughout the day) will virtually guarantee a snow day.
Of course...
stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon: I may have jumped the gun with the Nor'beaster©™® moniker, but I reserve the right to use it later
Alright, so it's looking less dire for Friday night / Saturday and the Nor'beaster©™®. Still a Nor'easter, and still some potential travel issues, but the system lacks the blocking, surface temperatures, and upper atmosphere juju to make it truly epic.
What I think:
Obligatory strange, unsettling Hasselhoff picSnow arrives late Friday night, like after midnight. Continues in to Saturday morning, when we'll see a changeover to a brief period of snow/sleet before turning to all rain east to west. Accumulation and travel issues will occur mainly between midnight Friday and 9-10am Saturday. Then rain til early evening, then flurries, then that's it. We're looking at 3-4 inches at most (Lehigh Valley, Berks, Bucks) and 1-2 inches (Philly, burbs) and a coating to an inch (shore).
Overcast on Sunday but no snow and temperatures reaching 40. Monday brings a clipper system that's quite similar to the one that hit us yesterday. 2-3 inches generally and a better-than-good chance of school early dismissals and/or cancellations. (Look for updates on this one over the weekend.) High Monday doesn't even reach freezing (with wind that'll make it feel like the teens); low gets down in to the lower teens (with wind that'll make it feel like the single digits).
Stay tuned for updates!
Clipper moving out ... Nor'beaster©™® moving in?
Clipper is on its way out for most of us, already gone for others. An inch or two at most (and trace amounts in some areas where dry pockets set up) with lots of early dismissals in its wake.
Overnight we'll see temperatures drop into the mid 20s. Overnight and into Thursday morning we will see pockets of freezing fog, which sucks. It's fog (which is already treacherous) freezing into little crystals and making slickness. So:
Chance of delay Thursday, 62.5%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 7.8%
Both Thursday and Friday will turn out partly sunny with highs in the upper 30s, lows in the lower 20s.
Then on Saturday we're looking at the potential for a major coastal storm that could drop a foot of heavy, wet snow. A myriad of factors remain to be resolved, not the least of which are track and temperatures throughout the atmosphere. Still, it
.
Beyond that, I've got my eye on the potential for accumulating snow and scheduling delays on Monday 1/26 to Tuesday 1/27 as well as Friday 1/30.
The first week of February looks frigid.
Stay tuned for updates!
CLIPPER CALL
So we're looking at a little snowstorm.
Snow develops by 11am (ish). Heaviest snow will be from about 1:45 to 4:53. Then tapering through the evening.
Accumulations will be in the range of 2-2.8 inches (Berks, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Bucks Counties) and a coating to 1.88 inches in Philadelphia, Montgomery, Chester, and Lancaster Counties.
He is saying, "Choooooch."So we won't see any snow by AM commute, but we could see some early dismissals out of this.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 4%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 22.77%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 63%
Chance of delay Thursday, 36.777%
Chance of actress Linda Blair, former Journey frontman Steve Perry, and Philadelphia Phillie Carlos "Chooch" Ruiz having birthdays on Thursday, 100%
Travel will be slippery throughout the region, especially in the afternoon and early evening. Be careful.
Looking at a coastal storm for the weekend that could be our first major snowmaker of the season. We're still 4 days out (it would hit Saturday), but this bears watching.
A bear, watching.
Stay tuned for updates!
The perfect storm of travel nightmares.
Slippery travel is most dangerous when motorists are unaware of the potential for problems. Such was the case this morning when precipitation began earlier than forecast--when surfaces temperatures were still at or below freezing--and turned roads and driveways (and especially bridges and overpasses) into a tractionless hellscape of icy white knuckles. Many people slowed down, put on the hazards, and left plenty of stopping distance--but in a lot of cases, none of it mattered. Scores of roads in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland were host to hundreds of crashes, some fatal.
Lesson: if you have to go out in poor travel conditions, take it easy. If you have four-wheel drive, remember that many others do not. Don't be an asshole, generally. And if you can stay home, do it.
So what delights await us for the remainder of January and the first few days of February?
Here.
Monday 1/19 will be partly sunny and quite windy. Temperatures will get in to the upper 30s, but wind chills will be in the low to mid 20s. Overnight, we'll get down to 24 (with wind chills in the teens).
Tuesday 1/20 looks mostly cloudy and seasonably cold (highs in the mid 30s) but much less windy. So it'll actually feel milder.
Wednesday 1/21 brings more thick clouds and a chance for snow. It's a fast-moving clipper system that will give us just an inch or two, but the timing--overnight and into Wednesday morning's commute--could be problematic. (Updates to follow, including closing/delay percentages.)
Sunny and clear on Thursday 1/22 with seasonable highs in the mid 30s; overnight lows will be in the low 20s.
Partly sunny and a wee bit colder on Friday 1/23.
The weekend looks nice. Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s.
The last week of January looks cold (highs in the 20s generally) with snow possible in the 29th-30th time frame.
Maybe a snow/ice event on February 2nd-3rd, too. The first ten days of February, in fact, seem potentially very active.
And just looking ahead, Kim Kardashian's giant ass will cause a complete solar eclipse on February 12th.
Stay tuned for updates!