Bit of a lowball, then.
From my last forecast:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 6%
Well, shit.
Happy wrongness, though.
Bit of drizzle and a few (rain) showers throughout the day today. Temps hold steady in the mid to upper 30s and don't begin to fall until 10pm(ish), so road conditions should improve throughout the day.
Snow starts by midnight and continues until about noon Thursday, when it will taper to snow showers and flurries in the early afternoon.
I'm sticking with the call of 4-6 inches generally for Berks. Chester County, Delaware County, Lancaster County, Philly, and points south and east appear to be in the bullseye of this thing: 6-10 inches. The Lehigh Valley, the Poconos, and North Jersey - which have been in the bullseye for many other storms - get only a few inches from this system.
Look at the size of this thing. It covers, like, 20 states. And it's moving right toward us.Temperatures fall from 32 at midnight to 25 at 6am to 20 by noon - and then into the single digits after sunset Thursday. So precipitation type is not going to be a concern with this storm - it's all snow.
Chance of delay Thursday, 94%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 85%
Friday looks sunny and cold.
Chance of delay Friday, 34%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 11%
Stay tuned for updates!
The finale of the winter.
Sloppy, icy, sleety mess out there. After midnight, surface temperatures rise above freezing and this all turns to plain rain. Still a little slickness possible through the morning commute because of how cold the ground is and whatnot. But then the rest of Wednesday is just light to moderate rainfall and temperatures reaching 40.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 6%
And then by maybe 8 or 9pm Wednesday, precipitation begins to mix with (and then change over to) sleet. After midnight, the sleet mixes with (and then changes to) snow. Snow continues throughout Thursday morning, tapers by noon, and ends by 2pm.
In Berks, we get 4-6 inches of accumulation. I think the bigger totals stay south of us - Delaware, Maryland, and South Jersey look to get 10 inches.
Chance of delay Thursday, 82%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 71%
Temperatures plummet throughout the day Thursday and reach all the way down to 6 early Friday morning, and then only getting up to 26 on Friday.
Chance of delay Friday, 32%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 4%
Saturday is upper 30s, and then Sunday temperatures are in the 40s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Wintry action this week, then it ends. I promise.
Monsoon is ill. The ears, the throat, the nose. So this shall be brief.
On Tuesday, snow will develop by 3 or 4pm, accumulating a coating to an inch. The snow will change to sleet and freezing rain pretty quickly - maybe around 5 or 6 and then changing to plain rain by midnight. Travel in the evening (4 or 5 through 9 or 10) will be treacherous. The ground is frozen, so it'll be slick. And over the weekend, we all saw how quickly conditions can deteriorate, even with very little snow or ice.
Wednesday is rainy all day, but it's plain rain. Temperatures get up to the low 40s.
After midnight on Thursday, temperatures will plunge back below freezing. In fact, temperatures will fall through the 20s during the day and through the teens at night. And it'll be windy. Thursday morning looks snowy - probably the last of the season. Right now it looks like 3-5 inches and a probable delay.
Chance of delay Thursday, 72%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 31%
And then Friday is sunny and cold with highs around 30.
And then the weekend: highs in the low to mid 40s, sunny and clear.
Stay tuned for updates!
Last gasps of winter...
March: it comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.Right now, it is snowing. I say that as an experienced faux-meteorologist, so you can be sure it is probably true.
Wait! Now a bit of sleet is starting to mix in. That's due to warmer air aloft; it's still in the mid 20s at the surface.
The roads are horrible. I mean, people sliding all over the place, cars into embankments, that sort of thing. (Be sure to email me or visit my Facebook page to share travel conditions, snow/ice totals, and the like.)
We have a good two and a half inches out there. I think most of us will be in the range of 3-4 inches by the time all is said and done.
When will it be said and done? Shortly after midnight.
During Monday morning's commute, temperatures will be in the upper 20s, so that's still below freezing, and I expect the roads to be shitty right through mid morning on Monday. After sunrise (and as temperatures soar toward the afternoon high of 31), we'll see some melting and much improved road conditions. Skies clear by afternoon.
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 2%
Hasselhoff: he will kick you in the ass; you will be delighted and ask for an encore.Then Tuesday, surface temperatures will hover right around freezing, so the precipitation we get will be a mixy mess. Starting around 2-3pm, we'll see snow and sleet. Then freezing rain and plain rain at night.
Temperatures are in the mid 30s by Wednesday morning's commute, and will reach a high in the mid 40s by the afternoon! Then temperatures plunge once again, falling from freezing at midnight through the 20s during the day on Thursday, and finally to the upper single digits in Friday's wee hours. (Oh, and there may be some light snow showers or flurries on Thursday.)
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 18%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 34%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 3%
Only gets up to 30 on Friday.
Really nice weekend, though. Sunny, highs in the mid 40s, just fantastic.
So we'll have to deal with wintry precipitation and temperatures through this coming week, but I think it's smooth sailing come Saturday 3/7.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon salutes Salute!
The last thing one expects to find in a sleepy strip mall in the middle of Sinking Spring, PA is a dynamic, sophisticated, scrumptious, authentic Italian restaurant. (One would expect to find a tanning place, a secondhand shop run by a ministry, a used furniture store, and some sort of Asian buffet - anything willing to pay the cut-rate rent on a sliver-sized parcel in a dying shopping center. But not a really, really good Italian restaurant.)
But that's just what Salute (sah-LOO-tay) Ristorante Italiano is: a truly great Italian restaurant, right here in Berks County.
It's best to make reservations, especially on the weekend - our server told us they get in the neighborhood of 150 reservations on Friday and Saturday nights (that's 150 each night) with no advertising.
That's right: Salute, which opened November 20th (Monsoon's birthday) of 2014, has survived--nay, thrived--on word-of-mouth recommendations only.
So let me add my mouth to this.
(I fully acknowledge that just sounded wrong. I will rephrase.)
So let me add my words to this mouth-party.
(Maybe I will just move on.)
The place was hopping by 5:00. All staff members were dressed in crisp black outfits and everyone who greeted us was warm and solicitous.
The chef is a guy named Peppe Agliano, and if that name sounds authentically Italian, it's because it is. He is an actual Italian person who is from Sicily, which is in actual Italy.
It's got a fancy outer entrance that, I think, is designed to cut down on the coldness seeping in, but also to make sure you realize that the place you're going into is not your ordinary little shabby strip-mall offering. It's a proper restaurant (that's what "ristorante" translates to in Italian). There's even a guy holding the door open for you. (I think he was employed by Salute. Maybe he was just a nice, door-holding fellow.)
The food, it was delicioso (delicious)!
We started with the Mozzarella In Carrozza (fried breaded mozzarella), which was divine. Best I've ever had. The server (who was attentive and responsive) brought us a basket of assorted breads (with assorted sauces), which we didn't even have to ask for.
The main dishes--damn right, they were good. The Cotolette Di Vitello Alla Parmigiana (veal parm) was the best I have ever tasted. The pasta it came with was aneletti. To my knowledge, it was the first times I have ever had it. It was wondrous. There were even different sauces on the pasta and veal, which was bold. (It was even marginally better than that of Mom Chaffee's, which is saying something.) The Fusilli Alla Carbonara (Mrs. Monsoon's entree) was outstanding, and was presented with an actual fried egg white, which was super fancy. And the Tagliata Di Manzo (sliced grilled beef), which was enjoyed by the mother-in-law of Monsoon, was a dream within a culinary dream.
And the presentation! Oh, the presentation. The most delightful little plates and saucers and vessels. And around each of our dishes, the chef had "painted" a flourish, as though signing his masterwork. It was as though the hand of God Himself had brushed the plates in benedictory blessing.
(I have veered into hyperbole. I will try to rein it in. But the presentation was impressive.)
We were stuffed, but I insisted that we try the desserts, because by then I knew I was going to write this thing, and I believe in thoroughness above all else. I suffer for you people.
I had the ricotta pie, which was good but not great. The thing was drowned in chocolate sauce, which Mrs. Monsoon said was a bit much, but which I relished. Mrs. Monsoon had the tiramisu (from the Italian phrase meaning pick me up) - she said it was good but not the best she's had - and the MOMM (Mom of Mrs. Monsoon) had the pistachio gelato (she said it was great).
It's not a place that you can go every night, unless you're rich. Appetizers are $6-$12, entrees are $15-$25, desserts are $6-$8. So that'll add up. Well worth the money, but still.
So go there and tell me what you think.
Buon appetito (enjoy the eating of the food)!
Winter? Monsoon here. Please stop.
Spoiler alert: the two dots are the same color. It has to do with the color around it or something. Blew yo' minds!!!In honor of the goddamned color-shifting dress that mesmerized my students so maddeningly today, I have included some optical illusions herein. (Seriously, if they brought one-tenth of the ardor and critical thinking to their study of literature that they brought to bear on justifying whether they saw white/gold or blue/black, I would be as happy as a howler monkey with two figs and a wooden nickel.)
Here's what's happening with the weather.
Climatologically, it's getting on toward spring. (Meteorological winter ends on Saturday, and actual winter ends on March 20th.) So the angle of the sun's rays is becoming an issue that we must consider when forecasting.
But here's the thing: winter is not leaving.
For example, tonight it's getting down to 3, with wind chills dipping below zero.
Saturday will be sunny but cold, with a high only getting up to 26. (Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 40s.) Then it gets down to 4 on Saturday night.
Sunday will be overcast with a high of about 30. Oh, and it's going to snow. Not a whole lot, as the heavier amounts will fall well north of us. Expect scattered snow showers from about 1pm to 6pm Sunday, then a few periods of steadier snow between 6pm and 10pm. The event ends as sleet/ice between 2 and 6am. Maybe a bit of rain early Monday morning, too.
Travel impacts: Sunday night and Monday morning's commute look messy.
Chance of delay Monday, 64%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
Monday gets up to 40, but it'll be pretty windy.
Tuesday into Wednesday brings another chance for wintry weather, but right now that's looking like a wet snow-to-rain event. It's a storm that will be long in duration, but the travel impacts and accumulations will be negligible.
On Wednesday it will get up to 46! All the way to 46. And then colder, but not frigid.
High Thursday will be 40. Friday will be around the same.
The following weekend--Saturday 3/7 and Sunday 3/8--will be gorgeous: sunny with highs in the mid 40s. Yeah!!
That's it, then. I don't see any more of the pipe-bursting, battery-killing, sac-shriveling cold that has plagued us, lo these many weeks.
Stay tuned for updates!
The week ahead!
It got above freezing today! Yeah. And then tonight it's going to get really cold again. 30 by midnight, 20s overnight, middle teens by tomorrow morning's commute (wind chill, -2). Only getting up to about 20 Monday afternoon (wind chill, 2).
Chance of delay Monday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 6%
Overnight from Monday to Tuesday, we'll get down to 1. Not really windy, but still.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 36%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 4%
Tuesday only gets up to 21.
Late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, we could see some light snow showers, but nothing disruptive or notable. I mean, I just noted it, but that's it now. Move on already.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 29%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 18%
Wednesday will get above freezing.
Then Thursday, cold again. *sad face emoji*
Friday too.
A little less frigid for the weekend, but Saturday night into Sunday could bring more snow.
Stay tuned for updates!
Weekend forecast (and beyond)
Saturday will be cold to start - down to 0 overnight. The good news is that it won't be windy, and the temperature will rise steadily from that 0 to 20 by noon, 30 by midnight, and 40 by Sunday afternoon.
Then it gets really, really cold again. High on Monday is only 18, and it's windy. Low overnight from Monday to Tuesday is -1.
You know what, winter? You can go to hell.
Let me talk about the snowstorm on Saturday. Some flurries and snow showers by late Saturday morning, but the snow doesn't really get going until 2pm. Snow won't be constant, but could fall heavily at times. We will likely see some mixing (sleet) as the surface temperatures rise to and above freezing - that's 10pm to midnight Saturday night.
So I see the most hazardous travel times (the times when you don't want to go out unless you have to) as 6pm Saturday to 2am Sunday.
Some mixed snow and rain showers will continue into the overnight hours, ending by midmorning Sunday.
Accumulations will be in the 3-5 inch range, with conditions getting slushy and soppy on Sunday.
Overnight Sunday into Monday, we get down to 18, so all that rain/slush/sop will freeze. And that's bad.
Monday, as I mentioned earlier, will be cold.
You may be thinking, "What did I, your loyal reader, do to deserve this?" And I answer, "No special reason. It's just because you're you!"Tuesday too.
And then snow is still possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so that could be an issue.
It's cold the rest of the week, and then it looks like Sunday 3/1 into Monday 3/2 could bring another winter weather event.
Hey, mother ... nature, meteorological winter runs from Dec 1st through Feb 28th. So stop this shit already, huh?
Starting on Tuesday 3/3, I see an improvement: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. It will feel like a g.d. heatwave.
Preliminary percentages for next week:
Delay Monday (due to freezing), 29%
Cancellation Monday, 11%
Delay Tuesday (due to ass-coldness), 44%
Cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Delay Wednesday (due to more g.d. snow), 65%
Cancellation Wednesday, 38%
Stay tuned for updates!