April 1-2 update
What will happen, timeline:
12-1am Monday 4/2, rain showers develop. Temperatures around 40, but they will fall rapidly through the 30s.
3-4am Monday, rain mixes with (then rapidly changes to) wet snow.
Temperatures around freezing (32) from about 5-8am, which is critical in terms of impacting the AM commute.
About 9-10am, snow will be outta here. So it's a fairly fast-moving system.
Accumulations will be widely varied based on where the heavy bands (areas of heavy, intense snow) set up. Grassy and unpaved surfaces will also see much more accumulation than roads and sidewalks.
Most of us will see 2-3 inches of slushy accumulation.
School impacts:
Chance of delay Monday, 74.38%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 31.56%
THE WINTER THAT WOULD NOT DIE
There is the potential for snow on Sunday 4/1 into Monday 4/2.
This is not an April Fools joke.
(I will pause for a moment for you to react to this news in whatever way you feel.)
Alright. So let's talk about what to expect on Saturday 3/31 through the first week of April.
Saturday 3/31 - sunny for most of the day with a high in the upper 50s. Kinda breezy at night. Only getting down to the mid 40s.
Sunday 4/1 - today is the day that Christians celebrate Easter. It is also the birthday of reggae legend Jimmy Cliff (1948), The Minutemen's D. Boon (1958), and YouTube douchecanoe Logan Paul (1995).
[Incidentally, The Minutemen are my favorite band of all time. I could talk about them for days, but I will not abuse your attention in that manner.]
So it's going to be partly to mostly cloudy on Sunday. High of around 55. A bit breezy, but jeez, deal with it.
Expect scattered rain showers to develop by 9 or 10pm Sunday night, so this action should not impact Easter plans or travel.
Temperatures drop into the mid 30s overnight, but are even colder aloft, so it's likely that the rain showers will change to snow - maybe 3am-8am is the window for potentially accumulating snow.
Possible accumulation is an inch or two at most. But the timing could impact the morning commute.
The sun will rise on Monday 4/2 at 6:46am, so the sunshine (even obscured by clouds at first) will melt/mitigate any slippery accumulation.
Becoming mostly sunny with a high near 50. Some rain may develop overnight Monday into Tuesday 4/3, but that will just be plain rain (nothing wintry). High in the low 50s.
Kinda rainy / showery on Wednesday 4/4 as well with a high in the mid 50s.
Clear and sunny and breezy, but chillier again, on Thursday 4/5. High only in the low to mid 40s.
Chilly and rainy on Friday 4/6 - high in the upper 40s.
The first full weekend in April looks (mostly) dry but still unseasonably chilly - highs in the mid to upper 40s.
If you insist: here is a video (just contains audio) of one of my favorite songs by The Minutemen.
Stay tuned for updates!
Nor'easter comes to a close
The snow should be ending by 9-10pm (already tapering). Generally 10-14 inches in Reading, Wyomissing, and around Berks.
In terms of school on Thursday 3/22, given the volume of snow; the duration of the event; the heavy, wet nature of the snow; and the fact that lots of secondary roads haven't even been touched - school is doubtful for tomorrow.
Working against these lingering effects: it's not going to get super cold overnight, and the sun angle should result in rapid melting.
Chance of delay Thursday, 93.17%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 76.24%
Chance of delay Friday, 24.59%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 3.22%
Second Phase Update
Snow showers - mostly light - will continue through 10-11pm tonight. Expect a bit of a lull until about 5-7am, when the second phase of snow gets going.
Snow continues, heavy at times, before tapering about 8-10pm Wednesday night. Scattered snow showers (and light snow) are possible overnight and into early Thursday morning.
Accumulation (in Berks) will be 8-12 inches, with isolated areas seeing higher totals. Due to the heavier snowfall, roads will become snow-covered, causing travel impacts.
Other accumulation projections for Wednesday's system:
New York / New Jersey
New York City, 12-18 inches
Princeton, 14-20 inches
Nutley, 13-17 inches
Toms River, 6-12 inches (more mixing initially; watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion)
Cape May, 4-6 inches (lots of mixing with significant ice accrual, coastal flooding, and beach erosion)
Pennsylvania
Columbia, 4-6 inches
Gap, 6-8 inches
Harrisburg, 4-6 inches
Lancaster, 4-6 inches
Lansdale, 10-14 inches
Lititz, 5-8 inches
Norristown, 10-14 inches
Philly, 12-16 inches
Royersford, 8-12 inches
Shippensburg, 3-5 inches
State College, just an inch or two
West Chester, 9-13 inches
School closing probability for Berks:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 14.33%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 74.09%
Chance of delay Thursday, 41.55%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 7.89%
Stay gold, Ponyboy.
Upgraded call on Spring Storm
So there are still two phases to this storm, and the first phase will still be minor. But the second phase, less minor.
Phase 1 begins early Tuesday afternoon and continues through 8 or 9pm. Expect on and off light snow and rain showers. Negligible accumulation and, since it's falling during the day, no accumulation on road surfaces.
Phase 2 begins by 5 or 6am Wednesday and continues throughout the morning and afternoon, tapering by 8-9pm. With this wave, we'll see accumulations of 6-8" (or more in isolated areas) generally in Berks, Lancaster, and Lehigh Valley. What is working against us in this storm is the fact that there will be mixing; the angle of the sun is sharper; and it's a very wet snow so there will be compacting. In the dead of winter, this would be a 16-20" storm. For mid to late March, it's less impressive and disruptive.
Philly and immediate suburbs will be around the same accumulation. They'll get more moisture, but there will be more mixing, so that'll cancel out.
Given the heavy snowfall rates expected on Wednesday (especially late morning and early afternoon), as well as ice accrual, I expect to see widespread travel issues across the region.
Watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion at the Jersey Shore.
Watch for limbs/trees/power lines falling due to heavy snow and wind, though as noted in the last forecast, the wind will not be as fierce as it was in the last coastal storm.
Impacts:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 3.15%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 5.01%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 31.34%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 36.88%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 55.79%
Stay tuned for uhhhhhh WHEN WILL THIS WINTER END
This last messy gasp of winter
This is a storm that will have a long duration, but low impacts generally.
Here's what to expect:
On Tuesday, we'll see some rain and snow showers (pretty light) develop by 3-4pm. High only reaches 35. Only a coating to an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces. Roads are just wet. Not a big deal at all. Kinda windy too, but nothing overwhelming.
Note: we'll likely see virga with this storm - where the radar indicates that there's snow falling, but it's evaporating before reaching the ground. Since our air is pretty dry and there's not a lot of snow cover, the light precipitation will, at times, fail to overcome that dryness.
(Down in Maryland, they could see 2-4 inches of accumulation and heavier snow, which will be more likely to impact roads.)
Then the second portion of this event comes through - Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. This portion will most likely come farther north (affecting us) and since it is falling mainly at night, it will potentially accumulate and cause disruptions.
Accumulation will be 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces, but snow may also accumulate overnight on secondary roads, causing some disruption to the Wednesday AM commute.
Impacts:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 1.33%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 0.03%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 28.11%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 4.58%
Stay tuned for updates, as small changes in track or temperature could have a major effect on the forecast.
The First Day of Spring Winter Storm 2018
Yep, you read that right: on the first day of spring, we're likely going to get an extended period of wintry weather.
This is a tough forecast because of the time of the year (in mid to late March, it has to snow very heavily to accumulate on roads during the daylight hours) and because there are a lot of "moving parts," meteorologically speaking.
For now, I'm leaning toward at least some snowfall between late Monday night and early Wednesday morning. Duration and impacts depend heavily on track and other factors, and the forecasting models have been trending away from a long, snowy solution. But I have a hunch the models will trend back toward a wintry solution as we near the event.
So for now, I'm just telling you what might happen, but I am declining to give a definitive forecast as of yet.
Stay tuned for updates as the picture becomes clearer Sunday and Monday.
CRAP hold on.
Little bit of a snowstorm headed our way. Not much, but it could impact the Tuesday commute.
Here's what to expect:
Snow showers (mixed with rain) develop Monday afternoon by 4 or 5pm. Rain gives way to all snow; more frequent snow showers from around 9pm Monday and 8am Tuesday. Some areas could see a few squalls (short periods of intense snowfall and wind) overnight. Accumulation only an inch or two.
Becoming windy and raw throughout the day with a widely scattered snow shower or two possible through Wednesday morning. Keep an eye on the Doppler. Road conditions will be mostly fine, but can deteriorate rapidly in a squall.
School impacts:
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 3.79%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 29.45%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 8.83%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 12.06%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 1.12%
Stay tuned for updates!