A snow forecast from your old pal Monsoon
Howsabout a snow forecast for old times' sake?
Forecasting Monday evening/Tuesday morning's snow/rain event. Will provide prognostications/outright guesses for four forecast zones: northern-central Berks; southern Berks-northern Lancaster County and Warrington; Norristown, Blue Bell, King of Prussia; and Baltimore City & Coumty.
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The forecast:
N-central Berks - snow starts 2am early Tuesday. Steadiest 7am-12noon. Between 10am-2pm, snow will mix with (and change to) rain. Precipitation ends by 8-10pm at the latest. It's what we in the meteorological industry call a "quick hitter." Accumulation 2-4 inches. School closing numbers: delay 38%, cancellation 30%.
S Berks/Nolanco/Warrington - snow starts between 3-4am. Steadiest 8-10am. Mixing and changing very quickly. Precipitation ends by 7-10pm. Accumulation 1-3 inches. School closing: delay 12%, cancellation 16%.
Central Montco - snow starts 4-5am. Steadiest 7-9am. Mixing and changing to rain very early on in the storm. Accumulation coating to 1.4 inches. Delay 9%, cancellation 4.75%.
Charm City and its environs - snow and rain starting around 6am and continuing through 6pm. The mixing will be nearly instantaneous and will result in little to no accumulation (0-.5 inches). No chance of delay or cancellation.
General thoughts about this (meteorological) winter, which runs from 12/1 to 2/28. Cold. More snow than normal.
As always, keep it real.
Monsoon
Super Bowl Sunday 2021 snow forecast
Regarding tomorrow's snow:
Monsoon
P.S. As much as I hate Tom Brady, I think the Bucs are going to win the game. Prediction: 24-13.
In-event snow update - 12/16/2020 at 2:35pm
Hi all,
In NW Baltimore, we have 3.5 inches and it's still snowing big-ass flakes. Forecast was for an inch or two of intermittent precipitation with lots of mixing. Haven't seen any mixing yet.
Could you post your current totals with location, time, road condition observations, pictures, and any other observations? (Best way to do this is by replying to my FB post or posting a comment at the end of this post.)
Be safe out there if you must drive.
Monsoon
March 3-4, 2019 storm
I'ma get right to it.
Potential for a big snowstorm.
Snow begins between 12-2pm Sunday. Heaviest snow is between about 6 and 11pm. Snow wraps up by 6-7am.
Here are more precise forecasts for some places:
Reading/Berks/Lehigh Valley/Lebanon Valley/North Jersey: 6-10 inches. Isolated areas will get a whole-ass foot. It will be heavy, wet snow, so shoveling is going to be particularly shitty. Schools are closed Monday, delay Tuesday. We may even see delays on Wednesday and Thursday, too, because it is going to be FRIGID. Overnight lows in the single digits. #shityanot
Montco/Bucks/Chester/Philly/Delco/central Jersey: 4-6 inches. The precipitation will most likely start as rain around noon, but change over to snow by late afternoon. We may even see some ice pellets (aka sleet) mix in during the heaviest period of precipitation (between 6pm and midnight). I still think schools are closed on Monday. Delays are on the table Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as well.
South Jersey/Delaware/shorepoints: 1-3 inches at most, with the majority of the precipitation likely falling as rain. I don't think you'll see school closures in this area, but it's a remote possibility.
As I said, cold after the storm, and really cold and windy on Tuesday in particular. Yeah, screw you, Tuesday.
Never mind what all this is; just know that this image shows all the ingredients for a big-ass storm.Monsoon
Oh and I almost forgot: there's another chance of snow on Friday 3/8 and Sunday 3/10 (both appear to be moderate events at most; I will continue to track them and provide an update some time next week. (And hey, loyal readers: I encourage you to remind me if it appears I have forgotten to do this. For reals.)
I will tell you now about the outside conditions expected for approximately the ensuing ten days
aka the Forecast.
New format: I am going to offer one single forecast for the entire greater Philadelphia region. If the forecast for Berks (or Lancaster, or Princeton, or Cape May), I will mention it. Otherwise, you can assume that the greater Philadelphia forecast applies to you as well.
Monday 2/25: windy as balls. Really gusty ones. High in the mid to upper 30s, but it'll feel like the 20s. (Gusts over 50mph at times, which whoa.) Low in the low to mid 20s. Sunny, though!
Happy birthday on 2/25 to Herbert Manfred ("Zeppo Marx"), who is dead.
Tuesday 2/26: sunny and still breezy, but not as bad as Monday. High in the mid to upper 30s, low in the upper teens to low 20s. Like, a serious wintry day.
Happy birthday on 2/26 to Tony Randall, who is dead.
Wednesday 2/27: becoming cloudier. Then overcast. A slight chance of afternoon snow showers, so much more likely is a dry, cloudy day. Temperatures steady in the low to mid 30s.
Happy birthday on 2/27 to John Steinbeck, who is dead.
Thursday 2/28: since this is not a leap year, this will, in fact, be the last day of February. Expect clouds mixed with sun, and highs in the low 40s. A bit of snow developing overnight Thursday into Friday. Literally, it will span two months.
Happy birthday on 2/28 to Frank Gehry, who was born on this day in 1929, and who is ... well, I'll be damned, he's alive and well. In fact, he is pictured above reacting to my assumption that he was dead.
Friday 3/1: overcast with highs in the upper 30s to near 40. Rain and drizzle, with wet snow and freezing rain more likely in Berks and areas north and west.
Happy birthday on 3/1 to Roger Daltrey, who is still one of the most kick-ass rock singers ever and who is definitively not dead.
Saturday 3/2: overcast with rain and drizzle; temperatures could get into the upper 50s and even 60s. We could even see a thunderstorm! Shit ya not. (Stays a bit chiller up in Lehigh Valley and Berks: highs in the upper 40s, but still rain and drizzle.) Then becoming much colder and very windy at night.
Happy birthday on 3/2 to Laraine Newman, because I haven't had a woman on here yet, and what the shit is that about. Oh, and she is not dead.
Sunday 3/3: sunny and windy with highs only getting up to the mid 30s. (That's barely above freezing, which is 32°F.
Happy birthday on 3/3 to Ruby Dandridge, who is dead.
Monday 3/4: snow, mark it down. Or maybe not. But it looks pretty likely.
Happy birthday on 3/4 to Patsy Kensit, who is not dead. I admit it: I did not think this through, the whole birthday shout-out thing. I mean, I've done eight now, and I have two more to go. Nothing to do now but just see it through.
Tuesday 3/5: morning snow, then clearing. I'm serious! For reals.
Happy birthday on 3/5 to Marsha Warfield, who is not dead. And yes, I am going to have five women in a row to balance out the five men in a row with whom I started this ill-conceived enterprise.
Wednesday 3/6: clearing, but still cold. Mid-30s at best. (Maybe 40 in Montco, Chesco, Delco, and ... Philco?) Milder thereafter - 40s, 50s, and beyond.
Happy birthday on 3/6 to Pauline Matthews ("Kiki Dee"), who is not dead.
Stay tuned for updates...
The second half of February = eine Scheiße zeigen
That's German for "shit show," but I didn't want to have a profanity in the title of my post. (For the children.)
Here's why I called the end of February a bad word:
Rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, iceification, slush, slop.
Let me break it down to ... walnut brown.
It rhymes. And it's not suspiciously ethnocentric and possibly racist, unlike "I'll take you down to Chinatown."
BUT I DIGRESS.
So let's talk about the first thing, which is Sunday to Monday. And this time, I'll put the forecast for Berks, followed by the forecast for Norristown in brackets. Like this:
On Monday, the skies will teem with falling toads. High 47, low 29. [Monday: toads, toads, and more toads. 50/31.]
Note: the above is just an example; we will not be beset with any biblically cataclysmic precipitation. As far as I know.
Happy birthday today to my favorite actor working today, Mahershala Ali. He was in the fantastic film Green Book, he was in Hidden Figures, and he's in the new season of True Detective. And little-known fact: his entire first name is actually Mahershalalhashbaz. That's a MAN'S name right there.
Sunday 2/17: Scattered snow showers appear by 6pm. Continue on and off throughout the night. Ends by 6-7am Monday. Maybe a scattered snow or rain shower through 11am Monday. Accumulation a coating to an inch. High Sunday 37, low 30. [Scattered snow showers--possibly mixed with sleet--by 7pm. On and off overnight. Ends by 3-4am, with a few lingering snow showers possible through 10am. Accumulation a coating only.]
Monday 2/18 will turn out partly cloudy and breezy. High 41, low 22. [Ditto. High 42, low 25.]
Tuesday 2/19: sunny for most of the day. Increasing clouds by the evening. No snow til after midnight. High 36, low 25. [Ditto. 38/24.]
Snow starts (scattered showers) after midnight; some steadier snow throughout Wednesday morning. Steadiest snow will fall between noon and 8pm. Some mixing (and perhaps the worst travel issues) from 8pm-midnight. High Wednesday 33, low 27. Thursday will see a lingering chance for scattered rain or snow showers (or some freezing rain, which will SUCK). High 41, low 29. [Ditto. Steadiest snow 1pm-8pm. Mixing 4-8pm. Wednesday's high 34, low 29. Thursday, ditto. High 46, low 33.]
Guys, this looks like a sloppy mess. Cold air will dam (stay put in our area) and there will be plenty of moisture to fuel this storm. And there's a thing called overrunning, which basically means that even though surface temperatures will be around freezing, other parts of the atmosphere will be warmer, adding up to a mixed bag of frozen shitfulness.
Accumulation: 5-7 inches; if there is significant mixing, the snow totals will be down, but the road hazards will actually increase. [For Norristown: 3-5 inches; same thing about the mixing and the roads. *turd emoji*]
School scheduling snafus: isolated delays on Monday; widespread closures on Wednesday; widespread delays on Thursday.
And what's that you say? You want more? Alright.
The last four days of February have the potential to be pretty dicey. Prett-ay, prett-ay, prett-ay dicey. Lots of moisture, cold air stays in place. So gross.
P.S. Oh! Check out this link from the PSU Department of Meteorology website. Not terribly useful meteorologically, or germane to this discussion, but it's so badass! (Wait for the animation to load. I promise it's worth it.)
Two Mid-February Jawns.
Right to it, because I'm mad late to this party.
Wait, I've got something to say first. You know how when it snows, it's harder to see? And roads get slippery? Yes? THEN WHY IN THE NAME OF HERMES' CADUCEUS DO PEOPLE STILL DRIVE SO G.D. FAST? For shit's sake, people: slow down.
This first bit is the forecast for Reading/Berks:
Snow Sunday evening, starting about 9pm. Pretty light snow overnight, wrapping up by about 6 or 7am Monday. Accumulation will be 1.65 inches. Roads will be dicey, so widespread two-hour delays are likely (and there may even be isolated closings where the snow lingers).
We could see some snow showers (mixed with sleet at times) between 11am and 7pm on Monday. Expect little or no accumulation during this period, but watch for temporarily reduced visibility and road iceification. (Yes, I just made up that word. Come at me.)
Then the more significant and disruptive storm arrives. Starts snowing in earnest around 9pm Monday night.
By Tuesday morning about 7am, there will be 3.1 inches of snow on the ground, and it will still be snowing. By about noon, expect to see the snow mix with (and briefly change over to) sleet; by mid-afternoon, it will change to all rain. But then in the evening there will likely be some sleet mixing in, and sometime late Tuesday night, it will change back to snow! And that snow doesn't end until maybe 6-7am Wednesday.
Total accumulation from this whole storm (Monday night to Wednesday morning) will be 6.3 inches, but it's the snow-packed roads, untreated surfaces, and the widespread iceification that are going to be the real disruptors here.
(The salt and brine and whatnot that were applied to various surfaces during our last spate of storms - that all washed away in the rain. So unless that solution was reapplied, don't expect to achieve any traction on said surfaces.)
Expect widespread school closings on Tuesday, and widespread two-hour delays on Wednesday.
So again: school delays likely on Monday and Wednesday; closures likely on Tuesday.
Now let's talk about the Norristown/Montco area:
Snow starts around 10-11pm Sunday night. Light snow wrapping up by about 7-8am Monday. Accumulation 1.56 inches. Dicey roads, widespread school delays (and there may even be isolated closings where the snow lingers).
Snow showers (with sleet mixed in at times) between 12 noon and 8pm on Monday. Watch out for the iceification (I made up that word in the Reading/Berks forecast, then decided to use it here again. Object to the coinage? I WILL FIGHT YOU.).
Look for the real storm to arrive (and snow to begin in earnest) by 9-10pm on Monday. By 7am Tuesday morning, there will be 2.45 inches of snow on the ground - and it will still be snowing. By noon, snow will mix with (then change over to) sleet. All rain by late afternoon and into the evening, then mixed with sleet, and then back to snow! Daaaaamn.
Snow ends by 7-8am Wednesday morning.
Total accumulation (Monday night to Wednesday morning) will be precisely 5.5 inches, but expect more disruption from the snow-packed roads, untreated surfaces, and widespread iceification.
(The salt and brine and whatnot that were applied to various surfaces during our last spate of storms - that all washed away in the rain. So unless that solution was reapplied, don't expect to achieve any traction on said surfaces.)
Expect widespread school closings on Tuesday; some two-hour delays on Wednesday.
So again: school delay likely on Monday, widespread closures on Tuesday, and some delays on Wednesday.