Monsoon's Forecast for the Monday-Tuesday Snow / Ice Event
Let's get right to it:
Monday will be very cold, with highs only in the mid 20s.
Flurries and light snow develop Monday night, perhaps by 7 or 8pm, but the bulk of the snow will fall during the overnight hours and perhaps even into the Tuesday morning commute. Look for an inch or two of accumulation before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain - perhaps as early as 5 or 6am, but definitely by 7 or 8am.
[Freezing rain is just regular old rain that freezes to surfaces. Sleet falls as frozen ice pellets; I think we'll have little to no sleet here...just snow to freezing rain.]
Freezing rain continues to the early afternoon hours, when the surface temperatures finally creep above the freezing mark. The extended period of freezing rain will likely lead to widespread icing of telephone lines, tree limbs, and sidewalks. It will also make for potentially treacherous driving on Tuesday.
In the full range of wintry precipitation, an ice storm is really much more dangerous than heavy snowfall. With that in mind...
Chance of at least a delay on Tuesday: 85%
Chance of a cancellation on Tuesday: 75%
I will post an update tomorrow night (Monday 1/17) if my thinking changes on any of this.
Further heads-up: I'm looking at a small event for Friday 1/21 and a potentially more significant event for Sunday 1/23 into Monday 1/24...