Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Monday afternoon
The picture of this week's storm is coming into sharper focus the closer we get to the event.
A bit. The track has shifted a bit westward and the atmospheric temperatures look like they'll stay down a bit longer.
Here's what I think:
Light snow begins sometime after midnight Tuesday night and continues into early Wednesday morning, becoming steadier toward mid-morning. This snow will accumulate only an inch or two before mixing with, then changing into, freezing rain. The result will be a slushy--and sometimes slippery--mess.
Then it gets interesting.
The "back end" of the storm--when the system begins to pull away and the precipitation changes back to snow--is when we could see more significant accumulations. It will also be blustery and colder behind the system. We could see totals of 8-10 inches in central PA, Berks, and the Lehigh Valley.
Probability of a delay on Wednesday: 60%
Probability of cancellation on Wednesday: 75%
Probability of an early dismissal on Wednesday: 40%
Probability of a delay on Thursday: 55%
Probability of cancellation Thursday: 30%
I'm looking at February 3rd-4th for another chance for snow...but let's take it one storm at a time.
Stay tuned for updates (tonight, tomorrow) on this Nor'easter as they become necessary.