Come on, Irene
Hurricane Irene, named after the Greek word for “peace,” is set to wreak anything but. Just days ago we sat in jangled awe of a workshop leader who could not even be stopped by a natural disaster; the hurricane’s impact on our area may be serious enough to delay the start of the school year.
The details:
Hurricane Irene is currently a category 3 storm, meaning it has sustained winds of 111-130mph. It’s also very slow-moving, so it’s liable to dump lots of rain on any given location. Coastal areas in North Carolina and Maryland have called for mandatory evacuations ahead of the storm, which is set to hit these areas Saturday into Saturday night. Definitive track is still up for conjecture, but the consensus is a more westward track.
Here’s what to expect in our region:
The outer bands of the hurricane reach our area by later Saturday afternoon, bringing light to moderate rainfall. Toward the overnight hours, the rain will intensify and winds will pick up. On Sunday, rain will fall for much of the daylight period, and winds on the back end of the storm (as it pulls away and moves to NYC and New England) will be in excess of 50mph. Total rainfall will be 3 to 6 inches in most places, with isolated areas getting as much as 10 inches. When it passes through southeastern Pennsylvania, Irene will be a tropical storm, but the potential for damage is still very real:
- Flooding. August has been one of the wettest months in history for many of us, and this intense period of additional rainfall has the potential to cause serious and widespread flooding.
- Outages. The waterlogged soil will surrender trees to the wind, and when these trees come down, they often bring power lines with them. And they block roads.
- Beach erosion. Obviously this will be confined to coastal areas, which will also be beset with flooding, wind damage to roofs and windows, and the like.
- Travel nightmares. Flooding and downed trees could potentially delay road travel; high winds and driving rain are likely to delay air travel.
The bottom line is that school cancellations are not out of the question for some, delaying the start of the school year until Tuesday, 8/30. This eventuality will depend on the prevalence of the above storm-related complications in and around schools and their communities. At this early moment, I will assign a 20% probability of cancellation or delay for Monday 8/29.
Behind the storm, look for sunny, dry and pleasant conditions from Monday through Thursday with highs around 80.
Oh, and … have a great school year!