Downgrade for tonight; upgrade for Friday?
Hasselhoff reads Hasselhoff.Last night's clipper looked robust on the radar as it came to east-southeast into Pennsylvania. An impressive area of moisture that promised to give us a nice couple of inches.
And then it got a shredded up in the mountains. (Essentially, the mountains act as a buffer, slowing down some clipper systems and pilfering their moisture.) On the radar, this looks like the ethereal disappearance of exhaled breath on a very cold day. It is very sad, particularly when one has expressed such confidence in a system's performance.
**sighhhh**
The percentages offered yesterday were unreasonably inflated. I have fired my statistician, my esthetician, and and my tactician. This type of half-assery is unacceptable around here.
The clipper that will come tonight and disappoint us all, currently over the Great Lakes.Tonight's clipper is even more moisture-starved that last night's. It will leave a coating to a half-inch at most across the area; some places may see nothing but a few flurries.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Wednesday will be seasonably cold (highs in the upper 30s) and quite windy, so expect wind chills in the 20s.
Thursday will be seasonably cold and less windy. Both Wednesday and Thursday will be fairly overcast.
Thursday night into Friday is looking interesting. Light snow develops overnight Thursday into Friday, mixing with ice and creating a travel mess for the morning commute. Precipitation changes over to plain rain by the afternoon. Timing and amounts are subject to change due to various factors, and there is a lot of data (and a lot of model runs) to evaluate between now and then. But I'm going to make a preliminary (subject to change) call for school disruptions.
Chance of delay Friday: 70%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 40%
Milder next week. Then maybe some President's Day action? Winter's not over yet...
Stay tuned for updates!