Monday mid-afternoon update
It's time for "nowcasting," which is a fairly recent meteorological term and a pretty juicy paradox. Basically, it means, describing what is happening and just about to happen, but using weathery, sciencey terms to sound like we knew it all along.
So, to nowcast: The blizzard is trending east, which means less snow for us in Berks.
Still looking at quite a lot of snow for NYC, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire: more than two feet in some places within that range. (The record set in the blizzard of 1947, which dropped 26.4 inches on Central Park, may be challenged.)
Melancholy Hoff.North Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, suburban New York, and into Maine will see 12-16 inches.
Philly and south Jersey look to be in the 8-10 inch range.
The immediate suburbs (Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties) look to be in the 4-6 inch range.
And then it drops off. It's not clear where the boundary will set up, but it appears to be in western Delaware County in a longitudinal line (that's running north and south) from that point. Everything to the east of that boundary will get 4-6 inches. Everything to the west will get an inch or two at most.
So that puts the Lehigh Valley, Berks and Lancaster Counties, and even Chester County in the little-or-no-snow category.
For us, blowing/drifting will be concerns, so a delay is still likely--but an outright snow day Tuesday is looking less likely.
So, updated percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Of course, I will continue to monitor the situation closely and will keep you posted on any changes...
Stay tuned for updates!