Jonas is the real deal.
Lest you misinterpret my silence, this storm (christened "Jonas" by The Weather Channel) is a monster. In fact, it's like Daniel's fourth Beast in Revelations - the one with the ten horns (1. in the satellite image below) - mated with an ill-tempered mythological demon (let's call her Charybdis; see 2. in the image below) to create a super badass Nor'easter that is one of the most potent and dangerous storms I have ever seen.
Sorry to mix mythological metaphors there, but it seemed appropriate.
1 + 2 = HOLY CRAP
The snow starts between 10pm and midnight Friday for most of the area. The heaviest snow will fall late Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon. Snow tapers overnight Saturday into Sunday, then ends by about 8am Sunday.
Travel for Saturday: don't even. Seriously, it's not worth it. You might be able to get out on Sunday, but I wouldn't count on it.
Snow totals:
- Philadelphia, Chester County, Lancaster County - 16-22 inches
- north and west suburbs (Montgomery County, Bucks County) - 14-18 inches
- Reading / Berks, Lehigh Valley - 12-16 inches
- parts of Delaware, Maryland - 20-26 inches (the bull's eye!)
- south Jersey - 8-12 inches with some mixing, especially at beginning and end
Travel impacts: Heavy snow and periods of strong winds will reduce visibility dramatically. The plows will not be able to keep up with this action, so again, unless it's an emergency, stay home.
Snow day Monday? I'd call it a 95% chance of delay and a 70% chance of cancellation Monday; 65% chance of delay and 40% chance of cancellation on Tuesday.
Variables: Storm track, obvi. And a Nor'easter of this size and strength is notorious for banding (whereby one town gets 12 inches and a neighboring town gets 18) and thundersnow (whereby it snows like hell and you hear a rumble of thunder and you think the world must be ending).
Thanks for your kind words and your patience, my loyal readers. And hey--let's be careful out there.
Monsoon