A Monsoon Weather Alert for Sunday, 27 April 2008
A strong cold front is moving through, bringing with it moderate to strong winds and some potentially significant precipitation. Rain will begin overnight Sunday and intensify Monday morning and afternoon. Total rainfall amounts could reach an inch or an inch and a quarter. Precipitation may include strong to severe thunderstorms—which would include hail and damaging winds—anytime from late morning through the late afternoon. It all tapers off by the early evening, but clouds will persist into early Tuesday. Monday’s high will reach only the low 60s; overnight low will be in the mid to upper 40s. Tuesday will be markedly cooler with the high reaching only 56; the low Tuesday night will plummet all the way down near freezing.
(Happy Birthday Monday to Harper Lee; Tuesday to Duke Ellington and Eve Plumb!)
The last day of April will be sunny and cool with the slight possibility of showers late. High 58, low 38. (Happy Birthday to Willie Nelson and Kirsten Dunst!)
Thursday and Friday, the first two days of May, look partly to mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. (Happy Birthday Thursday to Chuck Bednarik and Joseph Heller; Friday to Christine Baranski and The Rock!)
Next weekend will be warmer still with highs reaching into the low 70s, but there is the potential for some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Next week cools off a bit and will hover around seasonal averages, with highs mainly in the mid 60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s.
MonsoonMonsoon's Weather Update for Thursday, 24 April 2008
The weather :
Weather narrative: Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue the next couple of days as high pressure stalls over the region. Things will get a bit more turbulent as a slow-moving cold front works through southeastern Pennsylvania over the weekend. There is a small chance of showers or thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday, but the better chance for rainfall of any note is Monday into Tuesday.
This second cold front will usher in cooler temperatures, with highs staying in the 50s, for the middle of next week. Things get seasonably milder by the end of the week with temperatures rebounding into the upper 60s. Next weekend looks sensational, and beyond that we’re looking into the upper 70s and perhaps 80s the following week.
Good news for Mifflin teachers, though: the newly-installed air conditioning is working reasonably well for most of us, or so it seems. So the days of dreading high temperatures during the school year may be behind us!
Beyond the forecast table: Warmer still with highs in the 80s; rain is possible the 7th or 8th.
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's Weather Update for Friday, 18 April 2008
My friends,
If you’ll permit me, I have a couple of odds and ends before I bring you the weather.
First, I have an exciting announcement: After six long, pointless seasons, I have officially kicked my “American Idol” habit! I wasn’t “feelin’ it” (as Randy might say) as the season began, but typically became more interested when the field was narrowed down to 12 in previous seasons. But this year, I haven’t watched more than an hour of the show altogether, and the feeling is wonderful. I have missed some truly awful guest stars and song styles: the Dolly Parton songbook, “inspirational” music, and Mariah Carey’s oeuvre come to mind most readily. At long last, I can honestly say that I have absolutely no stake in who wins this thing, no simmering hatreds of overly perky contestants, no hotly contested, cheating-wracked Idol pool with my (current or former) colleagues. I am free!
And yet, I have not quite emerged unscathed from the morass of televised “reality” show competitions. No, I haven’t become hooked on the gleefully vile, gyrating humpanalia “A Shot at Love with Tila Tequila 2” or the cloying ego-fest “Oprah’s Big Give.”
It’s almost worse.
Back in February I heard that a man who substitute teaches in our building once in a while was going to be on a reality show called “Your Mama Don’t Dance.” The premise of the show is that young, professional dancers must partner up with their parents (female dancers with their fathers, male dancers with their moms) and perform a series of routines, week after week. Doug Croner of Gilbertsville—the aforementioned substitute teacher—would be paired up with his daughter, Noelle.
Let me try to state in the briefest terms what this insipid Lifetime network show, airing Friday nights at 9pm, is all about.
First, it is hosted by the almost unbelievably smarmy and cheesy Ian Ziering (pretentiously pronounced EYE-in ZHEER-ing) of “Beverly Hills 90210” “fame.”
Each pair prepares a dance based on the week’s theme—it might be cowboy music, it might be hip-hop dance, it might be showtunes; it will be ridiculous—and is shown in a short taped package rehearsing the routine. Then the pair perform the routine and are rated on a scale of 100 by three judges—choreographer (and former J-Lo beau) Cris Judd, the inexplicably well-known Vitamin C, and the wildly eccentric and inscrutable dancer extraordinaire, Ben Vereen. The scores are invariably inflated, the feedback stunningly incoherent. The two pairs with the lowest scores at the end of each show land in the bottom two; call-in votes determine which pair will survive to next week and which will go home.
On the first episode, Noelle and Doug, horrifically clad in sequined costumes, danced the most cringe-inducing, inappropriately seductive routine (remember, they’re father and daughter) to Britney Spears’ “Toxic,” which was highlighted on the snarky weekend wrap-ups “Talk Soup” (on E!) and “Best Week Ever” (on VH1). We were hooked. (I say “we” because I have involved Wendi in my sickness, and I am not sorry.)
[A note here: I tried and tried to find a clip online of this performance, but could not. For this I am sorry. It really defies description, so if you can ever find it, you won’t soon forget it.]
In subsequent weeks, the performances have only become more disturbing, and somehow Noelle and Doug have made it through week after week. Two weeks ago they performed a hip-hop routine (go to the video entitled “Bottom Pair – Episode 6” if you dare) that surely made Jam-Master Jay spin like a top in his grave—and it wasn’t even the most offensive or “urban” stereotype-laden performance of the night.
In my defense, I typically only watch until Noelle and Doug are on—which, for some reason, happens to be very near the end of each episode. I watch with a mixture of revulsion and bemusement, schadenfreude and an unshakable sense of the coming apocalypse, ultimately rooting against them so I could stop watching this infernal show.
And yet, that strategy has never paid off, as they’ve now made it to the last show, and I’m still tethered to it.
Anywho, this deeply sucky show mercifully has its finale tonight at 9pm, during which the final three pairs (including Noelle and Doug) will perform, and the several hundred people watching live on TV will vote for the winner.
Thanks for allowing me that confession. And now…
Weather narrative: The temperature got into the low 80s in most places within the forecast area (Reading, central and southern Berks County, central and northern Lancaster County) yesterday, and I think we’ll get at least that warm again today and perhaps even again on Saturday.
On Sunday, a front comes through that will cool things off and kick up some breezes; it may bring a few showers, but I don’t think we’ll have significant rainfall. Behind that, we’ll start next week with temperatures that are still higher than normal, but more moderate and pleasant than the highs we’re seeing right now. (“Normal” conditions in our region for this time of year are highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.)
Things get somewhat cooler by the end of next week, with highs only getting into the low 60s and windy conditions making it feel like the 40s or 50s. High temperatures will dip into the 50s in the last several days of April, with the chance of significant rainfall on those days.
Beyond the forecast: As we head into May, things will cool off a bit, as the WeatherTable trend bears out. By the second week in May, though, highs should perk back up into the 60s and perhaps even 70s, for those of you who like that sort of thing.
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Update for Wednesday, 9 April 2008
Friends,
Below the WeatherTable is the weather narrative...
Weather narrative: Unseasonably warm temperatures will move in today and tomorrow; a few showers are possible later today. Friday and Saturday will be rainy off and on and potentially rather turbulent: showers and thunderstorms are possible either day.
Look for breezy and cooler conditions Sunday through Tuesday with highs struggling to get out of the 40s; milder conditions will return by the end of next week.
The following weekend (4/19 and 4/20) looks spring-like with highs near (and possibly above) 70. Time to get out the mower!
Beyond the forecast table: Seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's Warming Trend Forecast for Wednesday, 2 April 2008
A general warming trend will define the weather pattern for the coming weeks. Though there are aspects of spring that I enjoy, two side effects of the spring fever in particular are anathema to me: warmth and bugs. Both of these scourges reared their ugly heads yesterday: the temperature reached 70 in some places with high humidity as a cold front moved through; and last evening, I opened the back door of my home only to be greeted by a large, brown arachnid in the jamb. It had an arse the size of a softball (I tried to look up what the ass-end of a spider is really called, but I couldn’t stand to look at the pictures of spiders on entomology websites) and legs like nautical rope.
Yes, friends, the return of insects also marks the return of my wildly hyperbolic tendencies.
The spider was looking at me with all eight of its eyes (again, I don’t know how many eyes a spider really has, but I can’t bring myself to brave the World Wide Web and its horrifying array of arachnid photos), daring me to take it on. I vanquished the beast with a potent stream of Simple Green—my weapon of choice for spiderfighting, in that it ensures there will be no close contact—which eventually sent the creature thudding to the patio and lumbering unhappily away.
And in that moment I missed winter so, so much—missed it in all its frigid, spiderless, grey-and-brown landscaped glory.
On to the forecast, including the return of the WeatherTable, which follows the text forecast…
Today will be chilly and windy with lots of sunshine and blue skies. High 51, low 26.
Thursday will feature sunshine early; clouds will increase through the late afternoon and evening, and showers will develop sometime after 8 or 9pm. High 55, low 41.
Friday looks overcast with steady rain and periods of showers throughout the day, tapering to drizzle late. High 59, low 48.
Saturday will be cloudy for the most part, with perhaps a lingering shower or two in the morning; clearing late. High 56, low 38.
On Sunday, temperatures will be milder and skies will be partly to mostly sunny. High 61, low 40.
Next week looks like more of the same, for the most part. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s to near 60; lows will be in the lower 40s. Windy on Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chances for rain next week are Monday the 7th (a few showers in the evening) and Thursday the 10th (rainy throughout).
Friday, April 11th will be noticeably warmer and quite sunny with a high of 67 and a low of 39.
The following weekend looks a bit cooler over all: Saturday the 12th will be sunny and chilly with a high in the mid 50s and a low in the mid 30s. Sunday the 13th looks rainy and windy with temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s.
Beyond that, we’ll trend warmer again, but not dramatically. Highs will be in the mid 50s; lows in the mid 30s.
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Update for Thursday, 27 March 2008
We’re entering a fairly moist spell here, but this is typical for the first several weeks of spring. Make sure to keep an umbrella handy—though I don’t foresee any soaking downpours or dangerously high winds in our immediate future.
[A reminder to my out-of-the-area readers: my weather forecasts cover the immediate area in which I, and my kith and kin, live and work: northern Lancaster County, central and southern Berks County. Sometimes I comment on the weather in the Philadelphia region, Allentown, Harrisburg, and other places nearby.]
Today we’ll see overcast skies and chilly conditions with periods of rain throughout the day. This evening will bring scattered showers. High 44, low 37.
Friday looks cooler with some steadier periods of rain, but I don’t expect a great deal of precipitation. Rain will taper to scattered showers and drizzle Friday evening. High 41, low 32.
The weekend is looking a bit milder and quite windy with partly cloudy to sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s; lows in the low to mid 30s.
Monday will be cloudy and potentially rainy with a high around 48 and a low around 35.
Tuesday and Wednesday, the first two days of April, will be breezy and much milder with partly cloudy skies. Look for highs in the upper 50s and perhaps even low 60s; lows will be in the upper 30s.
Thursday, April 3rd will see rain move in late in the day; it will continue into Friday and may be heavy at times. A strong cold front is moving through late Friday, so the possibility of isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
Next weekend will bring more below-normal temperatures after we have been tantalized with 60-degree-plus readings during the week. Highs will be in the 40s, lows in the upper 20s or low 30s.
The following week (beginning with Monday, April 7th) will bring dry, pleasant, spring-like weather, with highs reaching into the 50s at the beginning of the week and perhaps the upper 60s by the end of the week.
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's No-Frills Weather Update for Monday afternoon, 17 March 2008
The no-frills weather update...
Monday night will be cold with increasing cloudiness ahead of some rain moving in Tuesday. Low 29.
Tuesday 3/18 will be overcast and chilly with scattered drizzle and showers throughout the day and into the evening. Don’t expect high rainfall totals with this one, but just a rather dreary day. High 43, low 36.
Wednesday 3/19 will be much milder with steadier rainfall and perhaps even a thunderstorm in the late afternoon or evening. High 61, low 47.
Thursday 3/20 will be partly cloudy, cooler and very windy behind the front that brought us rain; northwest winds will whip through at 20-30mph and gusts will approach 50mph, particularly in the morning and afternoon. High 45, low 28.
Friday 3/21 will feature patchy clouds and diminishing winds toward daybreak. High 47, low 31.
Saturday 3/22 will be partly cloudy with increasing clouds late; unseasonably cold temperatures will move in. High 41, low 26.
Sunday 3/23 will be mostly cloudy and rather breezy with moderating temperatures. High 46, low 33.
Next week looks mild and pleasant with fairly dry conditions. Highs will trend from the upper 40s into the upper 50s by week’s end; lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. Look for rain possible on Thursday 3/27 or Friday 3/28.
The following weekend will be sunny and clear with seasonable temperatures. Highs around 50; lows in the mid 30s.
Beyond and into April will be quite a bit milder with highs rising through the 50s and into the 60s.
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's Weather Update for Wednesday, 12 March 2008
Daylight Saving Time can kiss my dragging arse. And so can the yammering hair helmet on the evening news who keeps telling me to check my frigging smoke alarms when I change my clocks. (OK—I checked ‘em, they’re A-OK, Muffy. Now sod off!) And so can George W. Bush (for this and many other reasons), who signed an idiotic bill in 2005 extending DST from March to November rather than April to October, which was bad enough. And, for that matter, so can Ben Franklin, whose precious ramblings formed the basis for DST in the first place.
And while we’re at it, Hillary Clinton can pucker up and plant a big one on my hindquarters, too, for proving that she will leave no dirty campaign tactic unslung. Barack Obama’s foreign policy adviser Samantha Power was fired for saying in an interview that Clinton is a “monster” who will “tell any lie” and “stop at nothing to win.” Well, I have no such high-profile ties to the Obama campaign, so I will say it now: Hillary Clinton is a monster who will tell any lie and stop at nothing to win. (A note about the picture below: I realize it is a horribly unflattering and almost daemonic picture of the candidate, but please understand that I have never made—nor would I ever make—any pretense of unbiased reporting here on the Monsoon weblog.)
Finally, Hillary Clinton operative and one-time Vice-Presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro can go to hell (I don’t want her anywhere near my arse) for her unequivocally racist statement, “If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept.” This statement has not been repudiated, nor has Ferraro been either denounced or rejected, by the Clinton campaign.
I hope that on April 22nd Pennsylvania Democrats reject her pandering, her divisive politics, and vote in large numbers for Barack Obama—who won both the Wyoming caucuses and the Mississippi primary with 61% of the vote and still has a lead of more than 100 delegates—as the next President of the United States.
But on to nicer, more palatable topics: spring is only a bit more than a week away, the two-week forecast is relatively dry, and the temperatures are (eventually) going to start edging up in accordance.
Today will be partly to mostly cloudy; becoming rather windy, but nothing like the high, damaging winds of last weekend. High 53, low 30.
Thursday will see some sunshine during the day, but clouds will dominate in the evening and overnight. High 48, low 36.
Friday will be overcast and quite mild with the chance of showers on and off throughout the day. High 56, low 38.
Saturday will be breezy and somewhat colder with rain and drizzle in the afternoon and evening. High 45, low 33.
Sunday is looking sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant with temperatures a bit below normal for late winter. High 42, low 28.
Monday 3/17 will be partly cloudy and nice. High 46, low 33.
Tuesday looks overcast with the slight chance of a sprinkle or two. High 52, low 36.
Wednesday will be partly cloudy and milder still. High 55, low 30.
Thursday and Friday look to be partly to mostly cloudy and colder with highs in the low 40s and lows in the mid 20s.
Next weekend will be more of the same, essentially: highs in the low to mid 40s, lows in the low to mid 20s.
Beyond: the cooler pattern breaks the following week, I think, when highs will be in the 50s and we will have left below-freezing temperatures behind us until December.
Monsoon
Monsoon's Afternoon Weather Update for Thursday, 6 March 2008
Thursday night: partly cloudy with a low around 30.
Friday: overcast with rain showers developing by noon and continuing into the night. High 46, low 35.
Saturday: rain will continue in the morning, tapering into the afternoon. Though the bulk of the heaviest rain associated with this system will fall to the south and east of the forecast area (central and southern Berks; northern Lancaster County), there could be up to an inch of rainfall all told. As such, flood watches and warnings are likely, especially given the already swollen waterways from the storm Tuesday and Wednesday. Skies begin to clear late and winds will kick up considerably, with gusts reaching perhaps above 40mph. (There’s a small chance of some flurries or brief passing snow showers in the late evening, but it doesn’t appear to be anything to worry about at this time.) High 48, low 31.
Sunday: partly cloudy with strong winds and noticeably colder. High 34, low 20.
Monday: clear with slightly more seasonable temperatures. High 39, low 26.
Tuesday: partly cloudy with temperatures around normal for this time of year. High 46, low 28.
Wednesday: partly cloudy and breezy. High 51, low 34.
Thursday: becoming mostly cloudy with a high near 50 and a low around 40.
Friday: rainy and cool with some snow mixed in late in the day. High 44, low 31.
Next weekend: quite windy and cold with plenty of sunshine both days. Highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.
The following week: seasonable conditions will prevail; highs will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s. I don’t see any real dramatic warm-ups that will have you tom-cattin’ around town in your shirt sleeves or the like.
Have a great, great weekend.
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's Ba-rack, rockin' it! Forecast for Monday, 3 March 2008
“Well, I blew that one.” These were my words to no one in particular on Saturday morning when I awoke to discover that the expected snowfall had amounted to a few, non-accumulating flurries and squalls, and was currently tapering to drizzle. “A good, old-fashioned blown forecast.” I have no defense; I could explain what happened, but since it would sound like justification, I will refrain.
I would like to make a bold prediction (as if my prognosticating skills amount to jack squat about now) about the upcoming Democratic presidential primaries tomorrow. Many of you recall that recently in this space I endorsed Illinois senator Barack Obama for the nomination; click the link below for details.
One additional key factor that supports my feeling that Barack’s a good guy and deserves our support is this: back in January, responding to a reporter’s question, Obama declared his favorite TV show to be “The Wire” (my fave) and his favorite character to be Omar (also my fave, though it may be a tie with Bubs): “He’s this gay gangster who only robs drug dealers, and then gives back. You know, he’s sort of a Robin Hood. And he’s the toughest, baddest guy on this show, but he’s gay, you know. And it’s really interesting. It’s a fascinating character.”
Another indication that Obamamania is unstoppably sweeping the nation is that lovably gruff orthopedic resident Bob Greenleaf, former old-school Lancaster County Republican, has been corrupted by city life (and his awesomely liberal wife Steph) and switched party affiliations! He is now a registered, Obama-supportin’ Democrat. (See actual photo of him completing the actual paperwork below.)
Anyway, the predictions for the March 4th primaries:
Texas: Obama 48%; Clinton 44%
Ohio: Clinton 49%; Obama 47%
Vermont: Obama 63%; Clinton 34%
Rhode Island: Clinton 51%; Obama 44%
Furthermore, I think Hillary Clinton, who needs not only victories but decisive ones to reinforce the viability of continuing her campaign, will nonetheless prolong the race—thus making the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary key and bringing about at least one PA debate and lots of appearances by both candidates.
Moving forward with the weather, we’re looking at unseasonable warmth (though today’s temperature will not quite approach the record high for this date of 70 in Reading). I don’t see any winter weather (snow, sleet, freezing rain) but I’m not ready to declare a definitive end to winter weather yet; given the below-normal temperatures that have predominated lately, I think we could have a winter event anytime through the first week of April.
The forecast…
Today will be partly cloudy and mild with light breezes; increasing clouds late. A bit of drizzle can’t be ruled out overnight. High 59, low 41.
Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a shower or two and some scattered fog throughout the early part of the day, followed by steadier rain in the evening and overnight, when rain may be heavy at times and localized flooding is possible. A thunderstorm may even move through late at night, and winds will kick up behind the system. High 51, low 42.
Wednesday could see some early showers, but otherwise it’ll turn out partly cloudy, windy, and cooler. High 46, low 25.
On Thursday we’ll see increasing cloudiness with showers late in the evening and into the night. High 46, low 34.
Friday will be partly to mostly cloudy with breezy and seasonably cool conditions. High 44, low 29.
The weekend looks even cooler with brisk winds both days; highs will be in the upper 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Next week is looking far better than the winter weather “mess” I hinted at in my last forecast. We’ll see warmer temperatures over all, with highs in the upper 40s (perhaps even reaching into the 50s again) and lows only in the mid to upper 40s. Next chance for rain—and only rain—is Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th as a warm front moves through, sending temperatures to near 60.
Beyond will be seasonably cooler with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s (about normal for this time of the year).
We are the UL-ti-mate! (Ba-rack, rockin’ it!)
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's Happy Leap Day! Forecast Update for 29 February 2008
Hey Friends,
The clipper system has come into clearer focus, and I need to adjust the timing and amounts, as well as driving hazards. Good news about next week, though: the Nor’easter I was discussing yesterday is a bust. Bad news about the following week: it looks like a winter weather mess.
A reminder about the Roadcon hazard classification system:
Roadcon 1 : smooth sailing with no weather-related impediments to travel
Roadcon 2 : wet roadways with the possibility of hydroplaning, but no icy spots; use some caution but not necessary to avoid travel
Roadcon 3 : light snow pack or visibility problems impair driving moderately; use a great deal of caution when driving, especially on untreated or back roads
Roadcon 4 : moderate to heavy snow and/or ice make driving hazardous; expect travel difficulties on untreated or back roads, and limit travel as much as possible
Roadcon 5 : heavy snow or icing and/or very low visibility make driving nearly impossible or extremely hazardous; stay inside!
The storm will unfold in this way…
3pm to 7pm today: flurries and light snow showers arrive. Accumulations will be minimal during this period, and driving should not be compromised. Roadcon 1-2
7pm to midnight: snow intensifies and the bulk of the accumulation will fall. It appears now that the snow will “lay” on untreated roads and sidewalks. There is a great deal more moisture associated with this system than a typical “clipper.” Driving becomes hazardous. Roadcon 3-4
Midnight to 5am tomorrow: snow continues to fall steadily with temperatures holding steady just below freezing (it does not appear that rain or sleet will mix in a whole lot, if at all). Driving remains “dicey.” Roadcon 3
5am to 10am: temperatures slowly rise above freezing and snow tapers. Clearing throughout the day thereafter with a high around 40. Roadcon 2-3
Accumulation: 2-4 inches in most of Berks County and northern Lancaster County, as well as Lebanon County; perhaps as much as 5 inches in northern Berks and the Poconos. Only and inch or two (with more rain mixed in) in Philadelphia, Chester County; points south and east get a mere coating before changing over.
Early dismissal: even if the snow begins a bit early, there is absolutely no chance of an early dismissal today. Any child who asks if there’s going to be an early dismissal, or who says “I heard we’re getting out early,” shall be fed to a pack of starving wolverines.
Drive safely…
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Update for Thursday, 28 February 2008
Today: Much colder with light to moderate breezes. High 30, low 15.
Leap Day: Becoming mostly cloudy with snow showers developing after 4pm as a clipper system moves through. Snow showers and some periods of steady snow continuing on and off throughout the evening, perhaps mixing with rain, and ending overnight. Accumulation will be an inch or two, perhaps three in a few some places, but I think it will be primarily on grassy surfaces. Roadways will remain mainly wet (Roadcon 2) and I think driving hazards for Friday night will be minimal—but be alert for Roadcon 3 potential, especially later at night and overnight. High 36, low 28.
Saturday 3/1: Partly cloudy and clearing throughout the day; breezy and cool. High 38, low 24.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and a bit milder. High 43, low 29.
Monday: Partly cloudy and still milder with clouds developing throughout the day; rain arrives in the evening. High 53, low 38.
Tuesday: Cloudy with rain off and on, then clearing late. High 52, low 31.
Wednesday: Very windy and much colder with partly cloudy skies, becoming mostly cloudy. I’m watching the models, some of which are indicating a possible Nor’easter for later Wednesday into Thursday—but remember that we’re 144 hours away, so precise forecasting for a system like that isn’t possible yet. Stay tuned for updates next week. High 36, low 23.
Thursday: Cloudy with the potential storm mentioned above. High 37, low 25.
Friday: Mainly cloudy and cool with high winds diminishing throughout the day. High 31, low 17.
Next weekend: Clear and cold with highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the teens.
Beyond: Trending warmer with highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s and low 30s.
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's Weather Update for Monday, 25 February 2008
Monday: Plenty of sunshine with milder temperatures; becoming cloudy toward evening. High 44, low 29.
Tuesday: Some snow and sleet is possible very early tomorrow morning—beginning around 4am and mixing with freezing rain by around 8 or 9am, then changing over to all rain throughout the day. Rain ends in the evening as a cold front moves through. Travel could be compromised a bit in the morning: Roadcon 2-3 possible. High 41, low 30.
Chance of two-hour delay Tuesday: 35%.
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 10%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and very windy with a few flurries possible. High 33, low 16.
Thursday: Breezy and cold with partly cloudy skies. High 31, low 14.
Friday: Cloudy with precipitation possible throughout the day: AM flurries, then scattered rain showers throughout the day, then sleet and freezing rain possible in the evening. High 36, low 25.
Saturday, March 1st: Partly cloudy, quite windy, and still seasonably cold. High 37, low 22.
Sunday: Cloudy. High 43, low 31.
Next week: Milder with highs in the mid to upper 40s through Wednesday, then colder with snow possible (maybe a doozy?) Thursday, March 6th or Friday, March 7th.
Beyond: Still cold. Then warmer, eventually.
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin's Imminent Winter Storm Update for Thursday, 21 February 2008
Weather Friends,
I’m sticking to my original forecast in general, but have been able to fine-tune some details about the storm…
Over all, I think the snow will be light to moderate, keeping accumulation totals down, but much will depend on temperatures at the surface and aloft, which is a matter that is still quite (pun intended) up in the air.
Driving hazards: To evaluate expected driving conditions, I have devised a road condition scale similar to the Defcon (Defense Condition) scale:
Roadcon 1: smooth sailing with no weather-related impediments to travel
Roadcon 2: wet roadways with the possibility of hydroplaning, but no icy spots; use some caution but not necessary to avoid travel
Roadcon 3: light snow pack or visibility problems impair driving moderately; use a great deal of caution when driving, especially on untreated or back roads
Roadcon 4: moderate to heavy snow and/or ice make driving hazardous; expect travel difficulties on untreated or back roads, and limit travel as much as possible
Roadcon 5: heavy snow or icing and/or very low visibility make driving nearly impossible or extremely hazardous; stay inside!
Accumulations: 2 to 4 inches of snow and ice accumulation generally in central and southern Berks and northern Lancaster Counties, with isolated spots reaching 5 or 6 inches.
School closing: Delay Friday 15% (it wouldn’t make a lick of sense); cancellation Friday 85%. I think it’s the timing of the snowfall, rather than an overwhelming amount or horrible driving conditions, that will lead most area districts to call the day.
The details…
Thursday overnight (10pm to 6am) – increasingly cloudiness with light snow developing by 4 or 5am. Temperatures in the mid 20s. Roadcon 1-2.
Friday morning (6am to noon) – steady snow. Temperatures in the mid 20s. Roadcon 3.
Friday afternoon (noon to 6pm) – snow falls fairly steadily throughout this period, with perhaps some breaks and mixing sleet toward late afternoon. Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Roadcon 3-4.
Friday evening (6pm to 10pm) – intermittent snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain; temperatures around freezing. Roadcon 3.
Friday overnight (10pm to 6am) – snow showers and flurries off and on; temperatures dipping into the upper 20s. Roadcon 3.
Saturday morning (6am to noon) – a slight chance of lingering snow showers and flurries; temperatures rising from the upper 20s to the low 30s. Roadcon 2-3.
Saturday afternoon (noon to 6pm) – still overcast with temperatures rising only to the mid 30s. Roadcon 1-2.
Have a great weekend, and be safe!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Winter Weather Update for Wednesday, 20 February 2008
Today’s Clipper: Some areas saw a flurry or two this morning, but it’s not going to begin snowing until noon or 1pm. Expect intermittent light snow showers with some brief periods of steadier snow as this fast-moving system passes just to our south, continuing until about 4 or 5pm and tapering to flurries throughout the evening. As far as travel goes, I think heavily-traveled roads will be just fine, while side and untreated streets may have some slippery spots. High 33, low 19.
Accumulation: My call is a dusting (thinner than a coating) to an inch in isolated areas.
Chance of early dismissal from school today: 15%.
Thursday 2/21: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy and seasonably cold. High 31, low 20.
Friday’s storm: Timing will be crucial for this event, and the storm hasn’t even formed yet, but model guidance is pretty strong for this one. Still, my forecast below should be regarded as tentative; I will finalize the forecast and send out an update with any changes tomorrow (Thursday).
Snow begins sometime between 4 and 8am, falling steadily throughout the morning and early afternoon. Sleet and freezing rain will mix in from late afternoon to evening, turning back to snow as precipitation tapers late Friday and overnight into Saturday. Travel will be potentially hazardous anytime from Friday morning to late Friday night.
Accumulation: 3 to 5 inches of snow (mostly) and sleet in our region.
Chance of two-hour delay on Friday: 20%.
Chance of school cancellation on Friday: 75%.
The weekend: After possible flurries or brief snow showers Saturday morning, expect clearing and a bit milder conditions, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the mid 20s.
Drive safely!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Weather Update for Tuesday, 19 February 2008
A note for those of you who may not be familiar with my little forecasts here: I am an amateur meteorologist (fumbling and self-taught, but nonetheless supremely confident); as I continue to learn more and more about meteorology, I am slowly becoming a nearly mediocre forecaster. My forecast area is central and southern Berks and northern Lancaster Counties (where I and many of my peoples live and work), sometimes addressing weather in surrounding areas such as central Pennsylvania, the Lehigh Valley, and Greater Philadelphia. Enjoy!
Tuesday 2/19: Quite windy and much colder; clear throughout the day with increasing cloudiness late. High 37, low 22.
Wednesday 2/20: Cloudy and cold with light snow showers developing by late morning, becoming more frequent and steady throughout the afternoon and evening. Perhaps an inch of snow will accumulate before ending by 9 or 10pm. High 34, low 19.
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday: 20%
Thursday 2/21: Sunny to partly cloudy, windy and cold with snow mixed with sleet possible in the evening. High 31, low 22.
Friday 2/22: Mostly cloudy and cold; some snow is possible Friday, but track and amount are still unclear. Stay tuned for updates (I’m going to hold off on more detailed predictions or delay/cancellation percentages for now). High 34, low 25.
Saturday 2/23: Cloudy with snow showers or flurries possible; clearing in the afternoon. High 37, low 28.
Sunday 2/24: Partly cloudy and a bit milder. High 44, low 29.
Next week: Highs generally in the low to mid 40s; lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. No real chance for winter weather that I see.
Next weekend: Cloudy and rainy with highs in the upper 40s.
Beyond: Colder the following week with perhaps our last good chance for accumulating snow around March 5th or 6th.
Have a great week!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Quick Weather Update for 15 February 2008
Today will be mostly sunny, breezy and milder early; temperatures will fall dramatically later on tonight. High 46, low 23.
Saturday will feature plenty of sunshine and very cold temperatures. High 30, low 18.
Sunday brings our next chance for precipitation, but I think it’s going to warm up enough that it will be all (or very nearly all) rain. Becoming cloudy and rather windy as the rain begins sometime around Sunday evening. High 40, low 34.
Rain will continue into Monday morning; skies will clear and milder temperatures will prevail. High 47, low 30.
Tuesday is looking cooler again with partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. High 36, low 21.
Look for clear, breezy and rather cold conditions on Wednesday. High 35, low 22.
Thursday will still be cold, but temperatures will begin to rise overnight. High 34, low 27.
Friday through Sunday is a potentially turbulent period in terms of winter weather with two systems poised to deliver precipitation on Friday evening 2/22, Saturday evening 2/23, and throughout the day Sunday 2/24—though there are indications that conditions will be milder by the end of the weekend, making much of this rain. Stay tuned for updates.
As we reach the last few days of February, I think we’re looking at the last real cold snap of the season, along with a real chance for snowfall. I’ve got my eye on Tuesday the 26th and Friday the 29th in terms of wintry precipitation, with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens or 20s.
Have a great holiday weekend!
Monsoon
Monsoon's In-Storm Update - Wednesday 13 February 2008
Hey friends,
Most of us had school delayed this morning, then cancelled--I suspect due to the icy sidewalks and back roads, power outages, and perhaps even the imminent flooding. Let me give you an idea of what to expect in the next few days...
On Wednesday, rain will continue, heavy at times, into the mid afternoon, when it will begin to taper. There's the outside chance of some flurries or brief snow showers as the storm moves away, particularly tonight, but these will not result in any additional accumulation. Winds will kick up too, particularly overnight. The problems many of us are dealing with include:
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sidewalks and driveways that are like skating rinks, and are difficult to clear. Because temperatures have hovered around freezing or just above for many hours now, much of the precipitation that's fallen has been freezing rain. Many places have an inch or more of ice on top of the snow that had fallen earlier.
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ice has coated power lines (and branches, bringing them down on power lines) and resulted in widespread power outages, which will only increase, I hate to say, with the strong winds forecast for tonight.
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many streets are closed due to flooding due to the volume of rainfall we're getting, coupled with the fact that our slushly ice/snow accumulation is blocking typical drainage paths. Some roads, especially those in higher elevations or seldom-traveled ones, are coated with a treacherous slurry of ice and slush.
And finally, my good people, much of this mucky mess will likely freeze overnight, posing problems for the morning commute. This is a nasty ice storm--ironic, perhaps, given that most of us are seeing what looks to be plain rain outside. [I've covered this before, I think, but freezing rain is simply "regular" rain that freezes on surfaces; sleet consists of already-frozen pellets falling from the sky and is somewhat less common.]
High today 36, low 22.
Predictions for school scheduling on Thursday, February 14th: delay 65%; cancellation 25%.
On Thursday we'll see mainly sunny conditions and moderate winds with a high of 38 and a low of 24.
Friday brings the chance for more wintry precipitation, but I think this is going to amount to little of concern. Afternoon rain showers are possible, then a steadier rain late may mix with snow; this clears out overnight. High 46, low 27.
Saturday is sunny and colder with a high of 35 and a low of 19.
And on Sunday look for snow developing late and continuing into Monday. I'm thinking this is a nuisance snowfall right now (an inch or two at most) and certainly won't include icing of the sort we're dealing with now. I'll update you all if anything seems to have changed on this event. Highs Sunday and Monday in the mid 30s, lows in the low 20s.
Happy Snow Day!
Monsoon
Monsoon's Winter Storm Update - Monday evening 2-11-08
Hey friends...
The storm has come into clearer focus and accelerated a bit, so I thought I'd share an update...
Tonight: clear and cold with a low of 10.
Tuesday 2/12: Clouding up throughout the morning with some flurries possible by late morning. Snowfall will not begin in earnest until at least 2 or 3pm, though. Snow will become steadier at times throughout the evening, mixing with sleet and changing to freezing rain sometime overnight. (Some models have the rain changeover sooner, but given the extremely low surface temps and weak low, I'm not buying it. I think the frozen precipitation predominates in this storm.) High 28, low 24.
Wednesday 2/13: The freezing rain and sleet should change over to plain rain by mid morning, but accumulations of snow and sleet--and ice-coated power lines, branches, and roads--will still hamper travel. Some mixed precipitation may sneak in as the precipitation tapers off in the afternoon. High 38, low 21.
Accumulations: I'm sticking with 2-3 inches of snow and ice, perhaps a bit less in southern Berks and northern Lancaster Counties, making travel extremely dangerous and ill-advised on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.
School schedule: Chance of early dismissal Tuesday 20%; chance of delay Wednesday 85%; chance of cancellation Wednesday 40%.
As always, I remind you humbly that I am but an amateur meteorologist, and implore you to be gentle in judging my errors...
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin’s Deep Freeze Weather Update for Monday, 11 February 2008
After a deep freeze this morning—it got down to 5 degrees this morning at my home—five!—we’re looking at a warm-up (at least to less arctic temperatures) by mid-week. I’ve also got my eye on a system that could bring us a delay or cancellation on Wednesday and a few more interesting longer-term issues.
Monday 2/11: Sunny and extremely cold. High 22, low 14.
Tuesday 2/12: Cloudy with light snow showers or flurries developing by the late afternoon; steadier snowfall is likely in the evening, so limit your travel. As warmer air mixes in aloft, look for sleet to mix in with the snow by around midnight, then gradually change over to freezing rain thereafter. High 31, low 28.
Wednesday 2/13: Freezing rain will continue through mid-morning, after which periods of regular old rain will fall. Precipitation will taper throughout the afternoon. High 37, low 21.
Forecast models: There is significant disagreement in terms of storm track and timing among the various forecast models, but I’m favoring a slower-moving system with significant precipitation, much of which will be wintry.
Accumulations: I’m thinking 2 to 3 inches of accumulated snow and ice here, with locally higher amounts in northern Berks and lower in Lancaster and Chester Counties. Heaviest accumulations will be in northeast Pennsylvania and north Jersey. As noted above, much will depend on the timing and exact track of this storm; as such, I will be updating the situation tomorrow.
Driving hazards: The commute home from school or work on Tuesday will be affected very little, but again, use extreme caution if you need to be out and about Tuesday evening. The worst time for driving will be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and Wednesday morning’s commute. Rain thereafter will wash everything away and improve conditions dramatically.
School scheduling changes: PSSA testing is this week, which means that administrators are going to be loath to wreck their best-laid plans for a few slippery roads. That said, my predictions for now are
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 10%
Chance of delay Wednesday: 70%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 35%
Thursday 2/14: Partly cloudy and milder. High 41, low 26.
Friday 2/15: Mostly cloudy and rather breezy. High 44, low 27.
Next weekend: A bit cooler with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s; snow is possible on Sunday the 17th.
The following week: More of the same—highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens and low 20s. Look for a possible winter weather event on Wednesday the 20th. Things warm up a bit toward the end of next week.
Beyond: Trending milder, but this is the season for Nor’easters and surprise storms. Last year we received our most significant snowfall on February 15th and March 15th. Stay tuned…
Monsoon