The timing is pants.
For those unfamiliar with the term, "pants" is a British colloquialism meaning "not up to the task" or "not ideal" - as in, This storm looked right spiffing, but then the storm track went pear-shaped, and now I'm afraid it's pants.
[It looked great, but went wrong, and now it's awful.]
I'm stalling, obviously. This is a tricky forecast, and I feel like a lot is riding on it. I mean, not in a fate-of-the-free-world kind of way, but in a cementing-my-reputation-as-a-credible-forecaster kind of way.
Here it is, readers.
The forecast.
Light snow develops overnight – 11pm to 6am, on and off. Accumulations will be light: a coating to an inch at most. Precipitation will change to sleet, then plain rain, by about 7am.
Light rain is expected from 7 or 8am through late morning; thereafter, the rain will intensify throughout the afternoon. I see this period (comprising the entire school day) as rain for us, not snow.
Then we could get some “wraparound” snow. As the system leaves, we’ll see precipitation change back over to snow (maybe by 7 or 8pm) and taper overnight, ending before dawn Saturday. Winds will intensify Friday evening, reaching up to 25mph (sustained) with 35mph gusts overnight and throughout the day Saturday, diminishing by Saturday evening.
Accumulations from this “back end” of the storm will be in the range of 1-3 inches.
Philadelphia will see mostly rain – maybe an inch or two of snow on the back end.
Allentown will see more frozen precipitation and more sleet mixed in. Plain rain will fall only in the afternoon; accumulations will be in the 4-6 inches range.
Nutley, New Jersey will have a fairly mild day Friday dominated by rain, but will face higher winds (gusting into the upper 40s) and more prodigious accumulations on the back end (8-10 inches).
No, I will not stop saying “back end.”
Lawrenceville, New Jersey will see rain for most of the day Friday, switching over to snow by 8 or 9pm (with strong winds), producing back end snowfall of 3-5 inches.
Connecticut, northern New York, interior Massachusetts, and southern parts of New Hampshire and Vermont seem to be in the "bull's-eye" of this thing: these places could get 18-24 inches of snow (or even more) and will see blizzard conditions Friday night into Saturday.
Cancellation potentials for the immediate forecast area (Berks):
Chance of delay Friday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Friday, 10%
The Sunday-to-Monday storm, which actually looks more promising (for us, at least) than this Nor'easter...I'm looking at a bit of snow and ice that could be fortuitous timing wise, arriving from late Sunday night into Monday morning, so a delay would make sense for Monday.
Stay tuned for updates...