March goes out like a ... lion.
Umida solstitia atque hiemes orate serenas, agricolae.
That's Latin, and it translates roughly to "Farmers, may your summers be wet and your winters clear."
It was written by Virgil, a Roman epic poet in the first century BCE best-known for his Aeneid.
It's also the name of the upcoming winter storm--the one that's already dumping an early-spring accumulation on the midwest--according to the Weather Channel. (I just can't pass up an opportunity to ridicule TWC.)
There is a lot working against this storm--namely, that it will have to overcome the late-March sun angle and the buildup of milder surface temperatures. And the bulk of the event will occur during the day Monday, so if it does snow, it may have a hard time accumulating.
Working in our favor (for accumulating snow) is the fact that temperatures have been well below normal for the past couple of weeks, and the projected high for Monday is 35.
Some forecast models have us (in Reading and the Lehigh Valley) getting 4 to 8 inches of accumulating snow.
Alright, enough stalling. I've got to make a call. Here it is:
We may see some flurries on Sunday night, but snow won't begin in earnest until 3 or 4am Monday. Snow intensifies toward late morning, mixing with sleet and rain. (I do think that the bulk of this event will be snow; in that way, it will be reminiscent of last Monday's action.) Snow tapers by 8pm Monday.
In Philadelphia, its immediate suburbs, and south Jersey, we'll see a more rain and mixing, so I'm just going to call it a slushy coating to an inch for them.
Back to us: Berks and the Lehigh Valley will see 2 to 3 inches of accumulation, mainly on grassy and unpaved surfaces. At various times throughout the day we could see slippery travel, as we did last Monday--particularly during the morning commute and when the snow is at its most intense (late morning and early to mid afternoon), when even major roads can become coated for a time.
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 20%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 50%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Chance of I can't believe you're still reading this: 100%
Stay tuned for updates; I will send out further notifications when and if my forecast changes...
I've been tracking the storm and wanted to give you an update: my thinking has not changed in terms of the precipitation type, timing, and percentages I laid out in my most recent forecast.
The current radar:
