End of January update - when is the next chance for snow?
First:
I have been an Eagles fan since forever, and I truly believe this is their year.
On to the weather.
The next few days will be a return to colder weather -- though we won't approach the dangerous frigidity we saw at the end of December and beginning of January.
Wednesday 1/24, Thursday 1/25, and Friday 1/26 will see plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 30s. (Wednesday and Thursday will be pretty windy, so those highs will feel like the upper 20s.) On those days, lows will be in the low to mid 20s.
And then it gets milder again: partly cloudy and breezy on Saturday with highs in the mid 50s. Sunday will also be in the 50s, but we'll see some showers.
The last few days of January -- Mon 1/29, Tue 1/30, and Wed 1/31 -- will see cooler conditions with highs in the upper 30s / low 40s, but no real threat of wintry precipitation.
So when's the next chance for wintry weather? Or are we finished with winter?
Psh. We may be finished with winter, but winter is not nearly finished with us.
Next good chances for wintry precipitation are: February 2-4 and February 10-12.
Snow update for Mon 1/15 through Wed 1/17
We have increasing clouds (and even a few flurries!) already, so I figured it was time for an update.
Overnight from Monday into Tuesday, there's a slight chance of snow showers. Look for these anytime between 2am and 10am Tuesday. They'll be light and widely scattered. No accumulation or impacts.
The second "round" is the most consequential: snow begins by 1pm, continuing on and off till evening. Expect an inch or two of accumulation and slippery travel. May have some early dismissals and evening activities cancelled, that sort of thing.
And then "round three" is the potential for a bit of Wednesday morning snow, but right now this seems like a miss. Stay tuned for updates.
Brandon Graham #55 - one of the main reasons the Eagles are in the NFC Championship.
Follow up:
Percentages! I will do percentages this time for K-12 and for postsecondary (colleges and universities).
Tuesday cancellation - K-12 17.44% - POST 5.41%
Tuesday early dismissal / partial cancellation - K-12 31.59% - POST 27.88%
Wednesday delay / partial cancellation - K-12 73.41% - 64.55%
Wednesday cancellation - K-12 42.32% - POST 19.53%
Thursday delay / partial cancellation - K-12 11.57% - POST 3.47%
Upper 30s by Friday.
40s on Saturday.
50s on Sunday / Monday.
Next good chance for wintry weather: 1/31 through 2/3.
Update to the update - 8:35pm
Have nudged a couple of my percentages slightly upward.
Tuesday cancellation - K-12 19.48% - POST 6.77%
Tuesday early dismissal / partial cancellation - K-12 54.54% - POST 32.99%
Wednesday delay / partial cancellation - K-12 79.41% - 68.55%
Wednesday cancellation - K-12 44.32% - POST 22.53%
Thursday delay / partial cancellation - K-12 11.57% - POST 3.47%
Forecast for January 8-9 precipitation event
The really good news I have, weather-wise, is that this arctic freeze is coming to an end: temperatures will climb to near freezing (32) on Monday 1/8, then upper 30s on Tuesday 1/9. Yes - pipes all over the area will thaw out, and I desperately hope they do so peacefully.
So. Cold tonight (Sunday 1/7) with a low of 9.
On Monday, we'll see temperatures rise to 28 or 29, so the concerns we originally had about mixed precipitation / icing will not be an issue. We'll see some periods of snow between about 1 and 6pm. It will accumulate only about 1/2 inch to an inch, but the snowfall could create some reduced visibility and slippery spots, so use caution during the PM commute.
I don't see any appreciable likelihood for this snow event to cause early dismissals Monday or delays Tuesday. #sorryteachersandstudents
Tuesday 1/9 will turn out mostly sunny with a high near 40, which will feel positively balmy compared with the past 10 days or so.
Wednesday 1/10 will be in the 30s and will feature times of clouds and sun.
Thursday 1/11 will bring precipitation, but temperatures will stay in the low to mid 40s, so expect just rain showers and drizzle (rather than anything frozen or wintrily problematic).
Yes, it's a word.
That rainy-drizzly dankness continues on Friday 1/12, when temperatures will mostly by in the mid to upper 40s, but may rise into the low 50s (!).
And then rainy and cooler for at least the first half of Saturday 1/13 with a high of 42 and a low in the upper 20s.
Thereafter: More like seasonal averages for the period from Sunday 1/14 through Wednesday 1/17, with highs in the 30s and lows in the upper teens to low 20s. And then expect temperatures to get milder after that.
The next chance of snow that I see (after Monday 1/8, of course)? Wednesday 1/24 - Thursday 1/25.
The Jawn's Arctic Aftermath
Alright, so the storm behaved pretty much as I expected, at least around here. (The coastal flooding in Boston is unreal.)
Now the deep freeze.
The high on Friday 1/5/18 will be 14. That will feel like -10, courtesy of the wind. The low will be 1. (And that will feel like -23.)
Due to blowing snow and dangerously low wind chills, I call for Friday:
96.7% delays
83.2% cancellations
Saturday 1/6 will be even colder: High 12 (wind chill of -8), low of -2 (actual temperature; wind chill of -6). It'll be colder, but a bit less frigid because of diminished winds.
Jan. 4th Coastal Jawn Update (5:45pm Wednesday)
The key with this storm is how quickly it strengthens and the exact track it will take. That's so vital for us because we (in Berks County) are in that "cutoff" range: areas to the south and east will get 1-3 inches, but areas in the "cutoff" range will barely see snow.
On a personal (and meteorologically nerdy) note, this is an exciting storm to watch, as it features a dramatic drop in barometric pressure producing something called bombogenesis, which is a badass term coined (made up) by meteorologists in the 1940s, but used more widely in recent years. Properly speaking, it's an explosive cyclogenesis, which literally comes from the Greek word for circle or coil + the Greek word for origin or creation.
Anywho. Forecast update.
Still looking at the Boston area and Maine as the bull's eye for this storm, but I'll also add coastal New Hampshire, coastal Connecticut, and pretty much all of Rhode Island. Those areas will get 18 to 24 inches of snow, with isolated areas exceeding two feet.
Closer to home: extreme south Jersey, coastal Delaware, and coastal areas in Maryland will pick up in the 12 to 16 inch range.
Interior New Jersey, the rest of Delaware, Philly, and the bulk of NYC will be in the range of 4 to 6 inches.
Eastern Berks County, Lehigh Valley, Eastern Lancaster County, and the bulk of Chester County will pick up 2 to 4 inches.
Central Berks (including the city of Reading), central and western Lancaster, out into York County - these are the cutoff areas. I see a coating to an inch for this area.
School closings: several schools (Reading, Exeter, Boone) have already called delays for tomorrow - I think this is due to the extreme low temperatures and winds expected. I expect more to follow suit, but in this area, I don't see a lot of cancellations. Delay would be a great idea for Friday as well. (On Friday morning at 7am, it's gonna feel like -15.)
Oh, and just for Adam and Maggie Exas (and even little Ainsley) - Thursday will be sunny and clear with a high of 40 and low of 20. (Wind chills in the teens, so that's pretty low for you delicate Savannahians!) It will be in the 50s on Sunday and the 60s on Monday, so there's that to look forward to!!
So there you have it.
Update: I am thinking we'll see a lot of delays and cancellations in Philly as well as Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Lehigh, and Berks Counties. The amounts are not the issue - generally 2 to 4 inches. It's the timing that will necessitate delays and cancellations: about 4-11am. And finally, it's the wind: 15-20mph with gusts 25-30, especially as the storm winds up. The wind will reduce visibility to dangerous levels.
This January 4th Coastal Jawn
Right now, it's looking like the coastal storm's track will have the following impacts:
NJ shore, 3-6 inches
Philadelphia, Lehigh Valley, interior NJ, 1-3 inches
Berks, Lancaster, a few snow showers, accumulating a coating to an inch.
The storm will be a direct hit for the Boston area and for Maine, where it will dump 18-24 inches of snow and produce blizzard conditions.
So here's my full forecast for the next five days in Berks:
Tuesday 1/2: sunny and breezy with a high of 22 (wind chill 12) and a low of 8 (wind chill 4).
Wednesday 1/3: partly sunny and still cold, but with calmer wind. High 29 (w.c. 25), low 18 (w.c. 16).
Thursday 1/4: overcast, cold. A few overnight snow showers or flurries (Wed into Thu). High 22, low 6.
Friday 1/5: COME ON. It's going to be even colder. Very windy. High of 13 (w.c. -7), low of 2 (w.c. -15).
Saturday 1/6: Just rudely cold. High of 12 (w.c. -4), low of 1 (w.c. -7).
Beyond: A bit less frigid on Sunday 1/7 and then it might actually get above freezing on Monday 1/8! There's a good chance for some snow and ice on that day, though.
Stay tuned for updates!
Could it be a White Christmas?
A wintry mix tonight (Sunday 12/24). Wet snow and rain not really getting going until after 9 or 10pm. Maybe an inch or two of slushy accumulation, ending before daybreak on Monday 12/25. There might be some slippery spots overnight, especially on bridges/overpasses. But unless you're out late on Christmas eve, or you are Santa Claus, you will not experience any travel issues with this little event.
Christmas day will be colder (high 35) and very windy. (Sustained winds 20-30mph with gusts 40-50mph!) Good day to hunker down and spend time with the fam.
Tuesday 12/26 will be sunny and cold: high 29, low 17. Still kinda breezy.
Wednesday 12/27 and Thursday 12/28 will be sunny and a bit colder: highs in the mid 20s, lows in the low teens.
Friday 12/29 is definitely going to be cloudy and cold (high in the mid 20s), but right now there's about a 50/50 shot of having a snow event.
Another potential snow event will be around on Saturday 12/30 (late afternoon, evening, and overnight).
Stay tuned for updates on the 12/29 and 12/30 events.
Then it's just continued sunny and cold on 12/31 and 1/1. My fervent annual hope that snow/ice/rain will thwart the Mummers Parade by dampening its inimitable melange of sequins and racism - well, that wish looks as though it will be unfulfilled this year - but at least it will be cold (20s most of the day).
Enjoy the times of the holiday. Family. Hearth, or whatever.
Monsoon
P.S. Remember to keep submitting questions about weather or not-weather that may well be answered in a forthcoming post!
Forecast for December 12th through 26th, 2017.
First of all, there's no sugarcoating it: my call for the December 9th storm was a spectacular fail. In case you missed the forecast, I called for a coating to an inch around here, and in case you were out of town, we got 4-6 inches generally in the Reading area. I could explain why I was wrong, and why we got more snow than I expected, but you don't want to hear that. So here's my promise:
I, Monsoon Martin, will use every foible and stumble as a learning experience in furtherance of becoming the very best amateur forecaster since the invention of the SuperDoppler.
And so, we move forward.
No reason. Why?Overnight Monday into Tuesday, we'll see some light snow showers as a Clipper system skirts by to the north, but nothing major. (For reals.) I don't expect any accumulation or travel/school impacts from this system. High on Tuesday is 42; low is 22 with increased winds.
Wednesday will bring the coldest air of the season. It will be weather that thoroughly earns the label applied to it by many who walk in and through it: cold as balls. Mostly sunny, but the high will only be 28 - and add in 20-30mph winds with gusts over 40mph, and it will feel like 14 degrees. (At night, the low will dip to 18 - with a wind chill of 2. TWO!!)
On Thursday, another Clipper comes through, and I think we're just looking at some snow showers (Thursday afternoon) with little or no accumulation and no travel impacts.
Another thing on Friday afternoon, but again, that just looks like snow showers at this point. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be around freezing (32); lows around 20.
This weekend - Saturday the 16th and Sunday the 17th - looks drier and less frigid. Those who enjoy venturing outside will find their environs much more hospitable. Highs near 40, lows in the upper 20s, plenty of sunshine.
Cloudy and fairly mild on Monday ahead of a system that will bring us a few (rain) showers on Tuesday. Highs both days in the mid 40s.
Wednesday 12/20 looks a little chillier with plenty of sunshine - high of 40, low in the mid 20s.
Thursday 12/21 (the solstice for you heathens - the day with the shortest period of daylight and the longest period of night ... no light) will bring some rain showers (and maybe a snow shower or two later on). High in the upper 30s.
Friday 12/22 will be rainy, chilly, and gross with a high in the mid 40s.
Next weekend - Saturday the 23rd and Sunday the 24th - will be overcast and cold (highs in the upper 30s) with a chance of accumulating snow on the 24th. This is good news for anyone hoping for a white Christmas (racist) but less auspicious news for those traveling on the 24th.
Monday the 25th - celebrated by Christians as "Christmas," marking the day when Kris Kringle and his elf assistant Buddy rolled an ice rock aside, emerged from a hobbit hole, Kringle saw his shadow, and heralded in six more weeks of winter - will be mostly sunny and chilly with a high of 35 and low in the teens.
And finally, Tuesday the 26th - celebrated by the British and their friends as Boxing Day, commemorating the day on which the landed gentry would engage in spirited fistfights over the leftover Christmas ham. At least it was celebrated as such, with a delightful jigsaw and bread pudding, until a certain British expatriate up and decided to go to Cape May without so much as consulting anyone - will be overcast and cold with temperatures hovering around freezing.
Please continue to submit your questions (about weather or not weather) to Ask Monsoon™©Ⓡ by clicking on the words "submit your questions" above and then asking me questions. I will choose the best/most interestingly bad questions and answer them here.
And as always, stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon
It's my first snow forecast of the season and I can barely contain my excitement!!!!
So there's a coastal storm on the way, and the forecast models have shifted its track to the northwest, putting it more toward the Lehigh Valley and Phila suburbs area, and increasing totals for south Jersey.
Here is what to expect.
Snow spreads southeast to northwest beginning tonight at about midnight. (That's Saturday 12/9/17 at 00:00 for those of you on maritime/military clocks.) So snow will begin first in south Jersey, then Wilmington, then Philly, and so on.
In Berks, look out for snow between about 8am and 3pm. It's not going to snow steadily during that period - we are on the outer edge of the storm, so I expect impacts around here to be fairly minimal. Expect scattered light snow showers and maybe a squall (short period of heavy, wind-driven snow) or two.
Totals:
South Jersey, 3-5 inches (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)
Philadelphia and suburbs, 1-3 inches (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)
Berks County and the Lehigh Valley, coating to an inch of snow (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)
Impacts:
During a squall, conditions are wack - extremely low visibility and quickly covered road surfaces. But in general, just slow down a bit and you'll be fine.
The high on Saturday will be in the mid 30s; the overnight low will dip down to 24.
Sunday 12/10 will be mostly sunny and breezy, but an isolated squall or light snow shower cannot be ruled out in the early morning. High 36, low 23.
There's a chance of some mixed rain and snow showers on Monday evening into Tuesday, but I don't expect that to impact morning commutes.
Thereafter:
Getting obnoxiously cold the second half of next week. Wednesday's high will only be 30; into the lower teens at night. Thursday, Friday, Saturday - a few degrees higher each day, but not a dramatic warmup. Sunday 12/17 will see a high of 36 and a low of 19.
Oh - and one last thing: I would like to inaugurate a new feature on the blog: Ask Monsoon™©Ⓡ. I invite you, my faithful readers, to send me questions (click on those words and an email will magically compose itself). These questions can, of course, be about the weather, but they can also be about whatever topic you choose. I am an enthusiast of many topics, and am renowned as a man who knows a little about a lot.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon
In this follow-up, I will forecast the storm for two places not covered by my original post: Princeton, NJ and Nutley, NJ. I regret the omission.
Princeton: Snow begins by 7am or so on Saturday and continues on and off throughout the day. Tapering by late afternoon / early evening. Accumulation 2-4 inches. Dramatically reduced visibilities during squalls, obvi. Road conditions a bit slippery but not treacherous. You know, I should do a road condition meter. Like 10 is smooth sailing, no issues and 1 is do not attempt to drive or you will surely die. Remind me.
Nutley: Snow by 7 or 8am, tapering by 6 or 7pm. Accumulation 2-4 inches. Road conditions: a bit slippery, but take it slow and you'll be fine. Dramatically reduced visibilities during squalls, obvi.
Monsoon
Monsoon Martin is my name. Weather forecasting is my game.
Monsoon Martin here.
Rain continues off and on Saturday and Saturday night, ending by 4 or 5am Sunday.
Gusty winds will kick up overnight. Sunday morning and afternoon will bring sustained winds of 20-30mph (gusts of 45-50mph). Briefly stated, it will be windy AF.
Mostly sunny and chilly for several days thereafter - highs generally in the mid to upper 40s, lows at or below freezing. Good fireplace weather.
MONSOON OUT.
You may be finished with winter, but winter isn't finished with you.
I'll get right to it.
Nor'easter. Snow begins Monday night between 10pm and midnight. Snow is heaviest between 4am and 2pm on Tuesday, beginning to taper by 3-4pm. We'll see snow showers Tuesday evening and overnight (and a nominal bit of additional accumulation) and maybe even some flurries on Wednesday morning.
Snow totals:
Berks, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Montgomery Counties (as well as north Jersey and NYC), 14-18"
Philadelphia, Chester County, south Jersey, northern Delaware, 8-12"
Delaware, extreme south Jersey, 4-8" with mixed precipitation
Is this a blizzard?
Strictly speaking, a blizzard is a severe winter storm that has sustained winds of 35mph or more and visibility of under 1/4 mile for three hours or more. We'll have winds of 15-25 mph on Tuesday morning and afternoon with gusts as high as 35-40mph, but expect visibility to be 1/4 mile or less for much of Tuesday morning and afternoon. So it's really just semantics--whatever you call it, we'll have a sucky, cold, snowy, wind-driven hellscape that will have the following impacts:
Power outages - Since it's a heavy, wet, wind-driven snow, we'll see widespread downed trees and power lines.
Travel snafus - Don't even think about trying to drive on Tuesday morning and afternoon. When people try anyway, there will be bad results. And cancelled flights up and down the eastern seaboard.
School closings - A snow day is all but guaranteed for Tuesday across the region, but the good news (at least the silver lining to this bad news, which I've become an expert at finding lately) is that because of the sun angle (it's mid-March) and the end time, we might just see delays on Wednesday. (This would change if there are widespread outages in an area or we hit - or exceed - the upper limit of those snow totals.)
Speaking of which:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 0.77%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 4.22%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 95.01%
[Note: yes, the percentages for Tuesday add up to 100%. You're welcome, math teachers!]
Chance of delay Wednesday, 46.13%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 19.12%
Looking ahead:
Windy on Wednesday; Wed and Thu are still below normal (highs in the mid 30s). Highs slowly climb through the 40s over the weekend (when we may have some snow showers but no big) and into early next week.
SNOW DAY
So it snowed. Most places in the area got about 4-6 inches, which you may recall as my forecasted snow total, but WHATEVS.
It'll get down to 14 degrees on Friday morning (2/10) so we may see some refreezing.
Chance of at least a delay on Friday: 41.212%
Chance of cancellation on Friday: 4.889%
It will be a little milder this weekend - highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 30s. Foggy with a shower or two on Sunday 2/12.
Two main messages I received today:
Is there a chance of more snow? I kind of liked this snow day thing.
OR
Is there a chance of more snow? I hate it and never want it again.
Answer: Maybe next Thursday - February 16th (snow) and February 22nd-23rd (freezing rain and sleet). And then something in March, but that's a long way off.....
Monsoon
Holy crap, a snowstorm.
It's going to snow.
Tomorrow (Wednesday 2/8) will be partly sunny with an unseasonably mild temperature getting into the upper 50s (around noon).
But then the temperature falls precipitously: 40s by 5pm, 30s by 11pm, and through the 20s all day Thursday. (Thursday's high of 31 will actually occur just after midnight.)
Snow will fall thick and fast between about 2am and 11am, tapering to snow showers in the afternoon.
How much?
4-6 inches in most areas, with isolated areas approaching 10!
School?
Chance that we'll have at least a delay: 82.1%
Chance that we'll go to school and have an early D: 40%
Chance of a snow day: 71.889%
Monsoon
Winter Weather Forecast for Sun 12/11 to Mon 12/12
Mother Nature be fickle, yo.
Evidence:
October 30, 2011 - high of 39. A freak snowstorm downs leaf-laden limbs. Mass hysteria.
October 30, 2016 - mostly sunny, high of 82. Rain and thunderstorms late afternoon and evening.
And October 31, 2016 - cooler and a bit breezy; mostly sunny with a high of 56.
The first day of November will be partly cloudy with a high in the low 60s, and then the second and third days of November will see highs in the low 70s again (and maybe a shower or thunderstorm on Friday as a cold front moves through).
Sunny with highs in the upper 50s for the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th. And no rain forecast for Election Day (until later in the evening), which is fortunate, because if there's one thing we Americans lead the world in, it's finding any possible excuse not to vote.
And now, on to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):
When will we have a hard frost to end the misery of seasonal allergy sufferers? First hard frost will probably be around the 18th of November.
When will it snow? The 2nd half of November is setting up in a pretty wintry pattern, so I think we'll see the first measurable snow of the season by the end of November.
Will we have a white Christmas? So racist, and no, at this point, it doesn't look like it.
Will it be a cold winter? Not especially. I mean, it's cold in winter. But the only really frigid period I can foresee is the 2nd half of January, when temperatures will dip into the teens.
Will it be a snowy winter? I see more mixed events than snow at this point given the dominance of La Nina. But this far out, nobody really knows. Anyone who claims to is selling something. (To paraphrase Cary Elwes' character in The Princess Bride.)
Sharknado 4: The Fourth Awakens
Hit up my Twitter, where I will be live tweeting the whole thing.
You can also find these pithy observations and fantasticness on my Facebook page.
And so all the world can find my posts quickly, I will use the hashtag #snarknado4 on each tweet I ... tweet.
I'm Still Standing
... and finally, an Elton John song about resilience after being rejected by his gay lover.
#makeamericasuckit
You Can't Always Get What You Want
"You Can't Always Get What You Want" - Stones song about drug abuse & manipulation closes out RNC. What could be better? #makeamericasuckit
"All Right Now" by Free
The song that plays Donald J. Trump off the stage is about a guy who picks up a girl on the street, takes her home, and has marvelous sex with her.
#makeamericasuckit, indeed.
MONEY SHOT
"To every parent who dreams for their child, and to every child that dreams of a better future, I am with you, I will fight for you, and I will win for you."
#makeamericasuckit