Monsoon's Forecast - Presidents Day storm and beyond...
So…do you want the good news first, or the bad news first?
If you’re an optimist, you’d like to get the bad news out of the way so you can focus on the good.
If you’re a realist, you want the good news first because you need to steel yourself for the bad, which you’re convinced will be much more bad than the good news is good.
If you’re a nihilist, nothing matters at all, so the concepts of “good” or “bad” news are meaningless.
If you’re a hedonist, you’re only interested in what can give you pleasure, and therefore you want to revel in the good news and utterly ignore the bad news.
If you’re a Zen Buddhist, you have worked to transcend the concepts of “good” and “bad,” and believe that all things just are; therefore, you welcome any and all pieces of news with equanimity.
If you’re a defeatist, you think there is no good news, so the above question is really just a cruel bait-and-switch.
I could go on. I suppose I’ll do it the old-fashioned way and present the “bad” news first:
We’re getting more snow. Here in the forecast region (Berks, Lancaster) we’ll see all snow from a system that will bring much more mixed precipitation to Philadelphia and areas south and east. Light snow arrives around mid-afternoon Monday and is heaviest later Monday night, then overnight into Tuesday. Snow will taper and end by late Tuesday morning. Some models are suggesting that the snow could linger into Tuesday afternoon, which is potentially a factor in school closings and delays.
For accumulation, I’m going with 4-6 inches in central and southern Berks, Lancaster County, and the north/west suburbs of Philadelphia. A bit more is possible in isolated areas, and especially north of Reading and in Allentown, where folks could see 8 to 10 inches. Wind will kick up on Tuesday afternoon and blustery conditions will be with us into Wednesday.
I know this is a minor to moderate storm in terms of accumulation, but this is falling on top of historic amounts from last week's blizzards, and some back roads are still snow-covered. These factors make this storm potentially something more than a mere nuisance.
Delay and cancellation percentages; most schools have off Monday (including Mifflin), but I'll include it here for those schools using it as a snow make-up day...
Monday cancellation, 10%
Monday early dismissal, 35%
Tuesday delay, 75%
Tuesday cancellation, 40%
On Wednesday 2/17 and for the remainder of the week, we’ll see partly sunny conditions with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
Cloudy and milder for the weekend with highs in the upper 30s (and perhaps some snow flurries or showers on Sunday), but I think we’re going to miss the accumulating snow that seemed destined to drop more on us.
Next week looks cold to begin with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark, but high temperatures will rise into the upper 30s and perhaps low 40s (!) by week’s end.
A bit of a warm-up will welcome us into March.
Here’s the good news I promised: this may be our last accumulating snowfall of the season.
But…stay tuned for updates.